It seems prices has started falling in Mumbai, many builders have started quoting less than what is being advertised, also many flats owners have reduced their prices to sell their flats as soon as possible before the price drops more, any first hand input welcome...:D
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  • Ha Ha It is priced in too early.. but there is no refund if it does not become the next Tokyo...

    Even if it does.. I do not think it is during my lifetime..
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  • Originally Posted by Sharpj
    Ha Ha It is priced in too early.. but there is no refund if it does not become the next Tokyo...

    Even if it does.. I do not think it is during my lifetime..

    One of the JBIC officer said Mumbai today is Tokyo in 1960. Given that Japanese are very honest and that Japan had two lost decades than Mumbai may be like Tokyo in 2040:D Hope you survive this wicked world till then :bab (45):
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  • Prices don't have to either keep going up or come down if they are too high. Mumbai real estate defies simple economics. Personally I believe Real Estate not just in Mumbai but, in India generally is overpriced. There is a bubble but, it may never burst. The builders have enough financial and poliotical muscle to hold onto to current prices unless something really goes wrong with the world economy. In my opinion prices over the next 5 years would probably stay where they are or maybe within 25% of current prices which if you adjust for inflation or the opportunity cost of the funds is the same price or maybe lower. Ofcourse, if the builders get too greedy and prices keep going up the way they have been, I don't think 20-25% annual increases in prices can be sustained for too long.
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  • Originally Posted by geeee
    Prices don't have to either keep going up or come down if they are too high. Mumbai real estate defies simple economics. Personally I believe Real Estate not just in Mumbai but, in India generally is overpriced. There is a bubble but, it may never burst. The builders have enough financial and poliotical muscle to hold onto to current prices unless something really goes wrong with the world economy. In my opinion prices over the next 5 years would probably stay where they are or maybe within 25% of current prices which if you adjust for inflation or the opportunity cost of the funds is the same price or maybe lower. Ofcourse, if the builders get too greedy and prices keep going up the way they have been, I don't think 20-25% annual increases in prices can be sustained for too long.


    The prices of a lot of things have gone up over the last year. From daily groceries, fuel, construction material, transport fares, pay-scales of politicians, autos...even the road side vada-pav has gone up in equal measure.

    I think real estate will either beat inflation or stick with it for the next few years. The average growth in RE prices has always been 10-15%, y-o-y, and that will be the case going forward.

    If the real-inflation in India comes down to under 5%, then you could have stagnant real-estate prices.

    I'm going with a 10% annual price inflation for RE.
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  • Originally Posted by razer
    The prices of a lot of things have gone up over the last year. From daily groceries, fuel, construction material, transport fares, pay-scales of politicians, autos...even the road side vada-pav has gone up in equal measure.

    I think real estate will either beat inflation or stick with it for the next few years. The average growth in RE prices has always been 10-15%, y-o-y, and that will be the case going forward.

    If the real-inflation in India comes down to under 5%, then you could have stagnant real-estate prices.

    I'm going with a 10% annual price inflation for RE.


    Sakhi saiyan toh khoob hi kamaat hai
    Mehngai dayain khaye jaat hai
    Har mahina uchle bandra, virar ka uchla hai role
    malad bai ke kahe bol
    Sakhi saiyan toh khoob hi kamaat hai
    Mehngai dayain khaye jaat hai
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  • Originally Posted by jadhav_ravi
    Sakhi saiyan toh khoob hi kamaat hai
    Mehngai dayain khaye jaat hai
    Har mahina uchle bandra, virar ka uchla hai role
    malad bai ke kahe bol
    Sakhi saiyan toh khoob hi kamaat hai
    Mehngai dayain khaye jaat hai


    :D Inflation, she's a dayain!
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  • Originally Posted by razer
    The prices of a lot of things have gone up over the last year. From daily groceries, fuel, construction material, transport fares, pay-scales of politicians, autos...even the road side vada-pav has gone up in equal measure.

    I think real estate will either beat inflation or stick with it for the next few years. The average growth in RE prices has always been 10-15%, y-o-y, and that will be the case going forward.

    If the real-inflation in India comes down to under 5%, then you could have stagnant real-estate prices.

    I'm going with a 10% annual price inflation for RE.


    Personally I have seen 24% returns on Real Estate over the last 8 years. If you actually look at prices of places like powai etc. I think the returns over the last 20 years have been similar (20-23%). Maybe some areas have given lower returns but, generally the returns have been over 20% over the last 2 decades.
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  • expect 10% in next 2-3 years and 5-7% thereafter.
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  • For all our logic, it seems redummy was right after all. A new vested interest has come into the picture,HNIs, moneylenders who are spreading this kind of news..to break builders back..Adam smith's invisible hand seems to be working.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Builders resorting to distress sale?
    But here’s the catch – you can avail of the sale offer only if you make a bulk buy of not less than 10,000 sq ft area
    Alka.Shukla timesgroup.com


    Hiral Shah, who has been scouting new residential projects in Kandivali to buy a house, got two rude shocks. “No one is quoting less than Rs 1.2 crore for a 1,000 sq ft house in Kandivali! And surprisingly, I also discovered that almost half the flats I saw in the two new projects were vacant,” said Shah.
    As if echoing his find, a recent survey by property research firm Liases Foras has revealed that there are 80,000 houses lying unsold in new projects across the city.
    Even as developers maintain that sales are brisk, crevices are beginning to show up, and one indication of this is that some developers are resorting to distress sales – disposing of homes by offering as much as 40-50 per cent discount. Zen Towers in Tardeo is a case study. Set to complete in December this year, you can buy space for Rs 15,000 per sq feet as opposed to the market rate of Rs 25,000.
    But here’s the catch: you must make a bulk buy of at least 10,000 square feet.
    “The market is over-heated, and with a price correction being anticipated, investments are drying up. Though big builders can hold on, it is the small players who have started to feel the pinch, and are creating distressed assets even as market sentiment is positive,” said Atul Khekade, partner, Netz Realty, a property consultancy firm that has sensed opportunity here.
    It has created a pool of 30 such distressed assets in South and Central Mumbai and is marketing them to NRIs and High Networth Individuals.
    Experts say only about 10,000-12,000 units have been selling in each quarter this year, as against 21,000 between April-June last year. No wonder pressure is building up.
    If a 22-storey tower in South Mumbai’s Nagpada area is available at Rs 8,000 per sq feet – as against the market rate of Rs 15,000 per sq feet – provided 10,000 sq ft is bought, another project in Andheri (W) is selling for Rs 10,500 per sq feet, almost 30 per cent lower than the market rate even if you buy just 5,000 sq ft.
    A builder, who is selling bulk stock at 40 per cent discount, said on condition of anonymity, “As big builders go on increasing rates for their projects, the average market rate is pushed up. They get funding through FDIs or big private equity firms. But when rates reach a brink, even investors who fund small projects like mine become wary. One Gujarati investor group that had promised to pump some money into my project backed out. Now I am desperate.”
    Real estate analysts speculate the cracks could widen. Pankaj Kapoor, Managing Director, Liases Foras said, “Creation of distressed assets is an indication that the residential market will undergo a correction, which could be to the tune of 25 per cent in the short term. This is not just because property prices are unrealistic, but also because a chunk of flats are being traded by investors instead of being bought by actual users.”
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  • We can also help in the invisible hand.. Why dont ppl who are rich enough to buy the houses at the lower rates get together and buy ..I guess 5-6 ppl get together and can buy in these projects..A guess lot of blaxk-white thing but still worth exploring
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  • Originally Posted by mamba
    We can also help in the invisible hand.. Why dont ppl who are rich enough to buy the houses at the lower rates get together and buy ..I guess 5-6 ppl get together and can buy in these projects..A guess lot of blaxk-white thing but still worth exploring

    what is your budget mamba?
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  • Finally a glimmer of hope .. folks .. again a humble request .. defer your purchases if you can ...
    If you cannot for any reason then at the very least do not buy investor flats, buy from the builders directly .. choke the investors for liquidity and you will have the builders choking in no time ..


    Originally Posted by mamba
    For all our logic, it seems redummy was right after all. A new vested interest has come into the picture,HNIs, moneylenders who are spreading this kind of news..to break builders back..Adam smith's invisible hand seems to be working.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Builders resorting to distress sale?
    But here’s the catch – you can avail of the sale offer only if you make a bulk buy of not less than 10,000 sq ft area
    Alka.Shukla timesgroup.com


    Hiral Shah, who has been scouting new residential projects in Kandivali to buy a house, got two rude shocks. “No one is quoting less than Rs 1.2 crore for a 1,000 sq ft house in Kandivali! And surprisingly, I also discovered that almost half the flats I saw in the two new projects were vacant,” said Shah.
    As if echoing his find, a recent survey by property research firm Liases Foras has revealed that there are 80,000 houses lying unsold in new projects across the city.
    Even as developers maintain that sales are brisk, crevices are beginning to show up, and one indication of this is that some developers are resorting to distress sales – disposing of homes by offering as much as 40-50 per cent discount. Zen Towers in Tardeo is a case study. Set to complete in December this year, you can buy space for Rs 15,000 per sq feet as opposed to the market rate of Rs 25,000.
    But here’s the catch: you must make a bulk buy of at least 10,000 square feet.
    “The market is over-heated, and with a price correction being anticipated, investments are drying up. Though big builders can hold on, it is the small players who have started to feel the pinch, and are creating distressed assets even as market sentiment is positive,” said Atul Khekade, partner, Netz Realty, a property consultancy firm that has sensed opportunity here.
    It has created a pool of 30 such distressed assets in South and Central Mumbai and is marketing them to NRIs and High Networth Individuals.
    Experts say only about 10,000-12,000 units have been selling in each quarter this year, as against 21,000 between April-June last year. No wonder pressure is building up.
    If a 22-storey tower in South Mumbai’s Nagpada area is available at Rs 8,000 per sq feet – as against the market rate of Rs 15,000 per sq feet – provided 10,000 sq ft is bought, another project in Andheri (W) is selling for Rs 10,500 per sq feet, almost 30 per cent lower than the market rate even if you buy just 5,000 sq ft.
    A builder, who is selling bulk stock at 40 per cent discount, said on condition of anonymity, “As big builders go on increasing rates for their projects, the average market rate is pushed up. They get funding through FDIs or big private equity firms. But when rates reach a brink, even investors who fund small projects like mine become wary. One Gujarati investor group that had promised to pump some money into my project backed out. Now I am desperate.”
    Real estate analysts speculate the cracks could widen. Pankaj Kapoor, Managing Director, Liases Foras said, “Creation of distressed assets is an indication that the residential market will undergo a correction, which could be to the tune of 25 per cent in the short term. This is not just because property prices are unrealistic, but also because a chunk of flats are being traded by investors instead of being bought by actual users.”
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  • Originally Posted by Kimmig
    Finally a glimmer of hope .. folks .. again a humble request .. defer your purchases if you can ...
    If you cannot for any reason then at the very least do not buy investor flats, buy from the builders directly .. choke the investors for liquidity and you will have the builders choking in no time ..

    well said kimmig. I was not going to buy but won't buy.
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  • Another article on Sept 6 mentioning the same concern

    http://www.moneylife.in/article/4/8844.html

    Real-estate sales fell by 50%-60% in the quarter ended June, as the market turned speculative and developers held prices in the hope that they would improve. Real-estate brokers also expect prices to rise over the next six months.

    “The situation in the real-estate market is speculative. Despite falling sales and an inventory pile-up, prices are continuously rising,” said Pankaj Kapoor, founder and managing director, Liases Foras, a real-estate rating and research company.

    “It looks like the focus is not on the consumer, but on valuations and IPOs (initial public offerings). People are looking for signs of stability in the stock market. It’s nothing but hoping and that is what is holding the prices in the property market.” Mr Kapoor suggested that the market would not undergo a correction until the hopes of the industry were fulfilled.
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  • I think prices are likely to consolidate at the current levels. RE will not witness the steep decline of last year and/or the steep rise of past 6 months until some dramatic economic/financial events take place.
    RE market is likely to consolidate at the current levels for next 6-12 months.
    If one intends to purchase house for self use then "now" is the best time. However for the investment purpose it should be wait & watch strategy.
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