It seems prices has started falling in Mumbai, many builders have started quoting less than what is being advertised, also many flats owners have reduced their prices to sell their flats as soon as possible before the price drops more, any first hand input welcome...:D
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  • I think some areas will grow, but most will stagnate.. At 10% growth for the next 5 years uniformly colaba rate wud reach 72000 p sq ft. Currently downtown Manhattan has rates of around 545 $ psf and it is stagnant. Colaba is set to overtake Manhattan in 5 years is tricky 2 believe..

    Originally Posted by jadhav_ravi
    10% for next 5 years
    6% for subsequent 5 years
    3-4% for subsequent 5 years.
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  • With rates
    10% for next 5 years
    6% for subsequent 5 years
    3-4% for subsequent 5 years.


    Prices would be 2.6 times in 15 years
    i.e Kharghar (13,100) / Town (1,31,000)

    This much low growth is not possible under curent inflationary policies of congress with 30% credit growth annually . Only possible if some other Govt comes which restricts credit growth.
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  • Originally Posted by mamba
    With rates
    10% for next 5 years
    6% for subsequent 5 years
    3-4% for subsequent 5 years.

    Prices would be 2.6 times in 15 years
    i.e Kharghar (13,100) / Town (1,31,000)

    This much low growth is not possible under curent inflationary policies of congress with 30% credit growth annually . Only possible if some other Govt comes which restricts credit growth.

    Anything more will just lead to a zimbabwe. It may be a bubble burst or slowdown but do not expect more than 2.6 times in 15 years as it is not sustainable. If you want look at China and all other developed countries. They have all had a similar phase.
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  • Property price trends-lessons from the past

    I wonder if anyone had reliable data, from the past 10-15 years, regarding property price trends in Mumbai and suburbs.
    I remember 3500-5000/sqft rates for Sion-Matunga-Dadar East area, very reliable- actual sales data, in the years 1996-1997.
    Dombivili was at 700-800 maximum then.
    If anyone had archived data/graphs from authentic sources, that would make interesting study and help people form their opinions.
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  • Originally Posted by garudadri
    I wonder if anyone had reliable data, from the past 10-15 years, regarding property price trends in Mumbai and suburbs.
    I remember 3500-5000/sqft rates for Sion-Matunga-Dadar East area, very reliable- actual sales data, in the years 1996-1997.
    Dombivili was at 700-800 maximum then.
    If anyone had archived data/graphs from authentic sources, that would make interesting study and help people form their opinions.

    I have all the data for entire MMR since 1996(2nd last crash). But trust me, times have changed, so rather base your opinion based on economic theories and other countries experience. 200% growth in 5 years is something to feel sorry for missing the bus, not something to learn new lessons.
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  • Risk vs return

    I agree to Ravi's statement. Though past performance is not a guide to future trends, I feel that with our ever increasing population, steadily growing economy, migration of population from rural/semi-rural areas to cities, RE growth will be steady and I foresee no change.
    Sceptics, including myself, "missed the bus", and many more guys will be missing future buses!
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  • Originally Posted by jadhav_ravi
    I have all the data for entire MMR since 1996(2nd last crash). But trust me, times have changed, so rather base your opinion based on economic theories and other countries experience. 200% growth in 5 years is something to feel sorry for missing the bus, not something to learn new lessons.


    I remember Powai/Andheri being at 2000 -2500 in 2002
    Could you chekc if that is ok.Current rates are 12,000 so its 5x growth or 400% in 8 years
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by mamba
    I remember Powai/Andheri being at 2000 -2500 in 2002
    Could you chekc if that is ok.Current rates are 12,000 so its 5x growth or 400% in 8 years

    Powai apart from Hiranandani was 2000-2800 in 2002. The current rates vary anywhere from 8K (Raheja vistas) to 10K (Lake homes).
    I will say 300%+
    Bandra used to be 5-6K in 2002. Today it is more than 22K. 300%+
    Andheri used to be 3500, today it is 15K.
    Mulund, Kandivali used to be 2K, today they are 8K. The most astronomical rise I saw was for central Mumbai (Worli,Lower Parel, etc) .
    These used to be 5K, some of which now quote 40K.
    Thane used to be Rs 400 in 1997. Today it is about 5K.
    Malabar used to be 10K in 2002, today it is ??? (no one is selling. So some get it at 50K, others get it at 100K)

    Having spoken all this. If you had put 10K in post certificates in 1999, it would have also have become 40K. Rates were high that time. Or if you woulld have put 10K in some shares at that time, u may as well have got a crore for your 10K.

    Bottom line: Don't be greedy. Enjoy your today and believe in satisfaction.
    "kitna kitna, kitna kaafi hai kisko bolo
    uske jitna, apni kismat ko aise mat tolo"
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by jadhav_ravi
    Powai apart from Hiranandani was 2000-2800 in 2002. The current rates vary anywhere from 8K (Raheja vistas) to 10K (Lake homes).
    I will say 300%+
    Bandra used to be 5-6K in 2002. Today it is more than 22K. 300%+
    Andheri used to be 3500, today it is 15K.
    Mulund, Kandivali used to be 2K, today they are 8K. The most astronomical rise I saw was for central Mumbai (Worli,Lower Parel, etc) .
    Thane used to be Rs 400 in 1997. Today it is about 5K.
    These used to be 5K, some of which now quote 40K.
    Malabar used to be 10K in 2002, today it is ??? (no one is selling. So some get it at 50K, others get it at 100K)

    Having spoken all this. If you had put 10K in post certificates in 1999, it would have also have become 40K. Rates were high that time. Or if you woulld have put 10K in some shares at that time, u may as well have got a crore for your 10K.

    Bottom line: Don't be greedy. Enjoy your today and believe in satisfaction.
    "kitna kitna, kitna kaafi hai kisko bolo
    uske jitna, apni kismat ko aise mat tolo"


    Absolutely spot on with the rates Ravi. And a brilliant quote to close with.
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  • Good analysis .. Well said..
    Seeing the sudden growth in RE people would make people feel that they missed some kind of bus.. but believe me.. in 2003, my budget and loan eligibility was only 25 - 30 lakhs based on my salary and I thought I should buy in Parle to Bandra and the 2 BHK's then were 50+ way beyond my eligibility.. I was looking for new TDR's then.. which were 6000+

    I guess the purchasing power was not so high.. I guess today we have good purchasing price and property prices are higher and yes then I could have bought in Borivali and today I can buy in New Bombay..

    Only thing I should remember is.. I shld buy for self use and not for investment..

    Originally Posted by jadhav_ravi
    Powai apart from Hiranandani was 2000-2800 in 2002. The current rates vary anywhere from 8K (Raheja vistas) to 10K (Lake homes).
    I will say 300%+
    Bandra used to be 5-6K in 2002. Today it is more than 22K. 300%+
    Andheri used to be 3500, today it is 15K.
    Mulund, Kandivali used to be 2K, today they are 8K. The most astronomical rise I saw was for central Mumbai (Worli,Lower Parel, etc) .
    Thane used to be Rs 400 in 1997. Today it is about 5K.
    These used to be 5K, some of which now quote 40K.
    Malabar used to be 10K in 2002, today it is ??? (no one is selling. So some get it at 50K, others get it at 100K)

    Having spoken all this. If you had put 10K in post certificates in 1999, it would have also have become 40K. Rates were high that time. Or if you woulld have put 10K in some shares at that time, u may as well have got a crore for your 10K.

    Bottom line: Don't be greedy. Enjoy your today and believe in satisfaction.
    "kitna kitna, kitna kaafi hai kisko bolo
    uske jitna, apni kismat ko aise mat tolo"
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Sharpj
    Good analysis .. Well said..
    Seeing the sudden growth in RE people would make people feel that they missed some kind of bus.. but believe me.. in 2003, my budget and loan eligibility was only 25 - 30 lakhs based on my salary and I thought I should buy in Parle to Bandra and the 2 BHK's then were 50+ way beyond my eligibility.. I was looking for new TDR's then.. which were 6000+

    I guess the purchasing power was not so high.. I guess today we have good purchasing price and property prices are higher and yes then I could have bought in Borivali and today I can buy in New Bombay..

    Only thing I should remember is.. I shld buy for self use and not for investment..

    That's it. Get a decent house. Get a decent living from you salary. And forget the rest.
    Easily earned money is sometimes not so good. If you invest and get 400% return, your money spoiled brat will still make your life hell.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Sharpj


    I guess the purchasing power was not so high.. I guess today we have good purchasing price and property prices are higher and yes then I could have bought in Borivali and today I can buy in New Bombay..

    Only thing I should remember is.. I shld buy for self use and not for investment..


    It is very tough for normal ppl to buy one house for self use..not to say investment... normal person in private (not a big brand) company needs to save at least 25% of salary for retirement expenses (considering you retire at 60 and live till 70 or so)

    One thing regarding purchasing power..Sharpj now you are 8 years senior than 2002..
    Could you tell me one thing, lets say your salary was Rs 100 in 2002, what would be the salary of person in similar profile / Similar work ex in 2010 as you had in 2002 ( I guess closer to 110/120) ?


    In IT , I can tell you pay has very marginally gone up.. and is almost stagnant at junior level
    CommentQuote
  • Very well said.


    Originally Posted by jadhav_ravi
    Powai apart from Hiranandani was 2000-2800 in 2002. The current rates vary anywhere from 8K (Raheja vistas) to 10K (Lake homes).
    I will say 300%+
    Bandra used to be 5-6K in 2002. Today it is more than 22K. 300%+
    Andheri used to be 3500, today it is 15K.
    Mulund, Kandivali used to be 2K, today they are 8K. The most astronomical rise I saw was for central Mumbai (Worli,Lower Parel, etc) .
    These used to be 5K, some of which now quote 40K.
    Thane used to be Rs 400 in 1997. Today it is about 5K.
    Malabar used to be 10K in 2002, today it is ??? (no one is selling. So some get it at 50K, others get it at 100K)

    Having spoken all this. If you had put 10K in post certificates in 1999, it would have also have become 40K. Rates were high that time. Or if you woulld have put 10K in some shares at that time, u may as well have got a crore for your 10K.

    Bottom line: Don't be greedy. Enjoy your today and believe in satisfaction.
    "kitna kitna, kitna kaafi hai kisko bolo
    uske jitna, apni kismat ko aise mat tolo"
    CommentQuote
  • Yeah you are correct.. Yes it is closer to 120 compared to 2002.. My salary growth was good initially though it has been only nominal since 2008. Salaries now are stagnant.. and grows only if you get an promotion or you move.. which has some challenges..





    Originally Posted by mamba
    It is very tough for normal ppl to buy one house for self use..not to say investment... normal person in private (not a big brand) company needs to save at least 25% of salary for retirement expenses (considering you retire at 60 and live till 70 or so)

    One thing regarding purchasing power..Sharpj now you are 8 years senior than 2002..
    Could you tell me one thing, lets say your salary was Rs 100 in 2002, what would be the salary of person in similar profile / Similar work ex in 2010 as you had in 2002 ( I guess closer to 110/120) ?


    In IT , I can tell you pay has very marginally gone up.. and is almost stagnant at junior level
    CommentQuote
  • View of this NRI:

    1. The prices are unrealistic in Mumbai. We all in US thought real estate will never fall.
    2. India is not different, Mumbai is not different, it is not different this time, prices are unrealistic by any measure.
    3. They are no making land anymore, however, there is so much room available in mumbai that prices can easily fall quickly. Lots of old buildings everywhere that can be turned to towers. Lots of mill land, lots of space everywhere, you see carefully.
    4. While there seems to be a nexus of builders-politicans-goons that control the number of new buildings in mumbai, it may change.
    5. The Government is incapable of fixing the problem themselves, what they need to do is allow foreign firms to build in India, whereever they like, as long as they follow the law.
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