Need your advice on a buying decision. I want to invest in a residential plot. I have been researching for 6 months and have shortlisted a plot in sec-31, greater noida.

It is purely for investment purpose and horizon is 7 years post which i want to sell it off and book profits.

I had also considered 'apartments' and 'commercial office space' but concluded that they are in over-supply at least for the time being and might see correction over next 12-18 months.

I was upbeat about 'retail spaces' but again ignored it as i wanted to invest in a prime retail space of a prime locality but was getting small
'covered area' in my budget of 60 Lacs.

I finally concluded on residential plot (200 sq. m) in sec-31, greater noida.

While I am totally satisfied about the future of this town over a 20 year
investment horizon, but I have the following apprehensions:

- Whether this is the 'right time' to buy ? Various analysts feel that world economy is slowing, US has a looming recession, indian economy is showing signs of deceleration, inflation and interest rates are hardening and realty prices are tapering off and correcting.
Research reports are saying of a possible further correction of 15% from here.

- i have observed that in last 1 - 1.5 years realty has stagnated in general. In particular, there has been mixed trends. eg. gurgaon has corrected, rohini (i.e. delhi) has appreciated hugely and greater noida (a tier-II city) has remained static. This is further confusing my decision. It seems that satellite towns might not appreciate for the time being and there could be stagnancy for 2-3 years. Since my investment horizon is only 7 years i am apprehensive about my 'timing' of buying.

- My funds are presently parked in FDs, yielding after-tax returns of 8%. If greater noida remains static i will lose on the opportunity cost of FDs.
Also if there is any forecast for correction, i can buy this plot at a lower rate in 1-2 years.

- some reports say that correction will only apply to residential apartments and commercial office spaces and not on residential plots and retail spaces

Kindly advise on -

- View on future price trends for greater noida 'plots' (not apartments) . will there be major corrections?

- should i buy now or hold on the decision for the time being.

looking forward to your help and advice

rgds

Manish Gupta
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  • Originally Posted by abhishek1980
    By the way which are the top 3 locations/sectors ( or to be posh locations in future ) in GN that residents would rate ?

    Jaycee Greens
    Omega
    Chi Phi
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  • Originally Posted by cookie

    1. JayPee Greens
    2. Omega
    3. Chi Phi


    I second that .. At this point, may be Swarn Nagri, Alpha1/2 or beta 1/2 may be #3 but in next 2 years Chi Phi will be #3.

    There will be no change in #1 and #2.

    Just to avoid silly questions, NRI City, Ansals are part of Omega sector.

    My POV
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  • Originally Posted by livingnspace
    Onda bhai and cookie sir

    Wouldnt opening of GV

    Present Golf Course Give more advantage to Swarnnagri over NRI City

    Also present of restricted gentry of 200 and 288..... which is easier to fill than 400 sq yrd plots

    ???


    Chi phi scores above Swarm nagari because of proximity to Yummuna expressway. and whatsoever ever development you will see in future this side. that's why
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  • Originally Posted by livingnspace
    That toh i agree with also plot sizes being bigger means a different gentry altogether.........


    Chi is the best sector GNOIDa Pari Chowk area has


    I was comparing the Omegas to S/N


    Omega comprises township like NRI, Green wood, Ansal and also closest residential to Parichowk in Greater Noida
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  • Originally Posted by cookie
    Omega comprises township like NRI, Green wood, Ansal and also closest residential to Parichowk in Greater Noida


    Yes, the entire area is called Omega and splited into P1, P2, P3...P7/8

    P1 is NRI City

    P2 is IAS Colony, Golf Views, Engineers etc

    P7 ya 8 is Ansal

    Swarn Nagri and Alpha/Beta are also equally good area ... lekin exam mein sab log topper nehin ban saq te hain.. and it all depends on personal preferences. just 19/20 ka phark.
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  • Living & space
    I have recently shifted to my own flat in AWHO.Also, purchased a plot in swarn nagri. For buying plot in swarn nagri, i did a lot of running around and research Before i shifted and invested here, I heard everyone cursing GN as a pathetic investment destination and tried to figure out why people thought like that.
    What ever little knowledge i have of RE, i have noted the following pts
    1. GN had an phenomenal increase in price from 1996-2000 ( about 1500- 5000 in 3 years( reason - had just come into existence , was touted as the best planned city after independence AND ALL THIS COINCIDED WITH STOCK MARKET BOOM OF DOT.COM ERA hence, it attracted large no of investors
    2. it stayed around this level or even slipped a bit for next couple of years
    3. Fron 2002-2007-8, it skyrocketed about 7 times, all this coincided with stock market boom, mayavati coming into power in 2007, overall RE boom in India and every tom ,dick and harry turning into a builder in this area
    This last boom was totally artificial because of too many bullish factors coming into picture SIMULTANEOUSLY, swarn nagri, alfa sectors touched 30 k and flats were booked at 3k/ft. This increase was more ridiculous than anywhere else in INDIA .Even, Delhi and GGN saw 3-4 times gain only
    4. AND IN MY ANALYSIS, PEOPLE WHO GOT TRAPPED AT THESE LEVELS, HAVE REALLY SUFFERED BADLY . And they have contributed to the bad name that this place got
    5. I feel that now the present rates are quite justified and are bound to increase from here mainly because had this boom of 2002-08 not been so vicious, the rates would have reached where they are now NATURALLY ( airport, metro etc may contribute but even in areas where there are no such plans and the home buyers buy because they need a home, plots appreciate about 20% per annum over 10+ years ( 12% per annum and about 40% in between for a couple of years during boom which invariably comes in 10-12 year cycle of any asset class be it shares,RE or commodities)

    Your comments pl
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  • Originally Posted by jatinder1234
    Living & space
    I have recently shifted to my own flat in AWHO.Also, purchased a plot in swarn nagri. For buying plot in swarn nagri, i did a lot of running around and research Before i shifted and invested here, I heard everyone cursing GN as a pathetic investment destination and tried to figure out why people thought like that.
    What ever little knowledge i have of RE, i have noted the following pts
    1. GN had an phenomenal increase in price from 1996-2000 ( about 1500- 5000 in 3 years( reason - had just come into existence , was touted as the best planned city after independence AND ALL THIS COINCIDED WITH STOCK MARKET BOOM OF DOT.COM ERA hence, it attracted large no of investors
    2. it stayed around this level or even slipped a bit for next couple of years
    3. Fron 2002-2007-8, it skyrocketed about 7 times, all this coincided with stock market boom, mayavati coming into power in 2007, overall RE boom in India and every tom ,dick and harry turning into a builder in this area
    This last boom was totally artificial because of too many bullish factors coming into picture SIMULTANEOUSLY, swarn nagri, alfa sectors touched 30 k and flats were booked at 3k/ft. This increase was more ridiculous than anywhere else in INDIA .Even, Delhi and GGN saw 3-4 times gain only
    4. AND IN MY ANALYSIS, PEOPLE WHO GOT TRAPPED AT THESE LEVELS, HAVE REALLY SUFFERED BADLY . And they have contributed to the bad name that this place got
    5. I feel that now the present rates are quite justified and are bound to increase from here mainly because had this boom of 2002-08 not been so vicious, the rates would have reached where they are now NATURALLY ( airport, metro etc may contribute but even in areas where there are no such plans and the home buyers buy because they need a home, plots appreciate about 20% per annum over 10+ years ( 12% per annum and about 40% in between for a couple of years during boom which invariably comes in 10-12 year cycle of any asset class be it shares,RE or commodities)

    Your comments pl


    Very good and valid observation.

    Many and many people failed to understand this or they pretend to ignore this. Whenever you talk about boom or crash, there has to be a reference point.

    You can not set reference point to suit your objective .. take a reasonable reference point like 5 years or 10 years.

    You very rightly said that the price now is already discounted price from the artificial boom.

    Agree to your observation.
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  • I refrain from commenting on appreciation thing as you are labelled as B by those invested elsewhere and know Zero about this area though I know the ground truth.
    I would say greater Noida had appreciated in 2 years most and not because of Hawa Infra.

    1 rates are reasonable for the kind of flats and societies you have in Gr Noida. inFact rare in NCR.
    2 quality living
    3 no pollution
    4 everything available schools to hospital.
    5 no over supply of pigeon holes.


    if I talk about appreciation part Greater Noida has given more returns than vaishali Ghazibad in last 1 and half year that's my case. don't know about others.
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  • Originally Posted by cookie
    I refrain from commenting on appreciation thing as you are labelled as B by those invested elsewhere and know Zero about this area though I know the ground truth.
    I would say greater Noida had appreciated in 2 years most and not because of Hawa Infra.

    1 rates are reasonable for the kind of flats and societies you have in Gr Noida. intact rare in NCR.
    2 quality living
    3 no pollution
    4 everything available schools to hospital.
    5 no over supply of pigeon holes.


    if I talk about appreciation part Greater Noida has given more returns than vaishali Ghazibad in last 1 and half year that's my case. don't know about others.

    I am also here for the quality of life and not investment, per se
    I have just tried to analyse from an investor's POV and why they talk ill of this place to whom so ever they meet.
    Thanks
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  • Originally Posted by livingnspace
    Jatinder ji,

    kudos for a great background of GNOIDA........... I appreciate it

    Can you Please comment on your recent purchase Swarnnagri on this thread
    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/greater-noida/t-ball-park-rtm-flats-31297.html

    I would appreciate it


    Now About GNOIDA

    Just Ball parks

    Rates Near Jasola ( Above 2 lakhs per sq mtr)
    Noida Jaypee KP (85000 rs per sq yrd seller available )
    Sector 46 (1,15,000 psm )
    Sector 105 and 108 (1,10,000 to 1,25,000 psm)

    GNOIDA
    Decent sector (35000-40000 sq mtr)
    Noida Ext (28000 psm )
    YEW (10000-12000 sq mtr)

    I would say the rates in GNOIDA are definitely justified but in Short term I do not see any reasons for Increase or decrease in the particular rates due to heavy supply from Noida Extention and YEW........


    Short term Delhi will see an increase in rates due to the ruling of Closing of GPA for deals making transactions less and an immediate supply crunch This could have a domino effect and increase rates for NOIDA and GGN as investment and Market sentiments could shift there ............ people would value land more than anything

    Due to a definite World presence of F-1 GNOIDA gets the advantage of People visiting the place making it a definite choice for investment ...... expo mart and the Greg Norman golf Course is also a plus .............opening of YEW will definitely further give advantage

    Expressway Jobs are he key to development of GNOIDA and not only from the delhi Side all big firms in UP AGRA side Kanpur Lucknow could see a potential of shifting to the NCR region address to NOIDA and yamuna Expressway Making Life easier .....


    One totally Unrelated Point ........ Standard Of living in Delhi......... This could be just faced by me But I have a house in Delhi ................ Living in GNOIDA is a completely different scenario than Delhi ........ weekends are definitely spent in Delhi but over all After work going to GYM and using Sports Facilites are much easier here in GNOIDA for me than for my friends in Greater Kailash ............. Flat Living which is Common in Delhi is only in Existance due to Connectivity to GGN and CP............ Once corporate culture sets into Delhi NCR and People start moving offices from their basements in GK and Defence Colony there will be a Boom in the Suburbs


    So dont play Short Term In GNOIDA .......... long term it will beat any kind of Investment you will make ........... Remember it is an END User Market ..........

    1. I purchased a 200 sq mtr plot, NE facing, C block swarn nagri for 59.5 in nov 2011.( I came to know later that Financier had picked it up for 57.5 in Aug end by paying 5L bayana). This is basically for shifting of my parents here who presently stay in pitampura , Delhi
    2. Regarding GPA, i need a clerification from you
    As far as i know, all erstwhile DDA land / flats in Delhi in any case were selling only after getting free hold.What i mean is that the selling was anyway not on GPA. Or am i missing something here?
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  • I would want Gnoida prices to stagnate or grow slower than rest of NCR. Let it remain an investor's nemesis and enduser's paradise.
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  • Originally Posted by jaijai
    I would want Gnoida prices to stagnate or grow slower than rest of NCR. Let it remain an investor's nemesis and enduser's paradise.


    wah wah wah....
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  • Originally Posted by jaijai
    I would want Gnoida prices to stagnate or grow slower than rest of NCR. Let it remain an investor's nemesis and enduser's paradise.


    If wishes were horses....
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  • I would still bet for GN, this is a very neat and clean city copared to other part of NCR and there are people who would like to live in GN. I myself plan to move to GN in years to come.
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  • Living & space
    Awaiting your reply on my GPA query
    Regards
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