Hi,

I like to start this thread to discuss about realty sector situation in NCR especially in Noida, GNoida, YERDA, and GZB.

There is very straight relation between price inflation based upon demand & supply. We all aware that there are Lacs of dwelling units available or will available in these regions in coming 0-5 years.

The wave of buyers (most of), who wished to invest or buy first house has already invested in these areas. And reason was simple location & price as per individual requirement.

It is my assumption that there is a major difference between demand and supply now; supply is much more than demand.

It will lead to hollowness in buying waves for next few years until new set of people will migrate to these areas due to job etc.

What will happen when supply is much higher than demand? .
•x09Bubble will burst and price will come down or appreciation will steady
•x09Builders will cartel and increase prices
Price escalation cannot go very much far just because of this. It will burst sooner or later.


Areas:
Greater Noida – Old sectors around Pari Chowk
Greater Noida – New Area (GNoida West / Noida exten)
Greate Noida – around Dadari (Anasal’s project etc)
GZB – Raj Nagar Exten, NH-24 (e.g. Crossing republic, ,Wave)
Faridabad – Nahar Par
YERDA-
Gurgaon – Sohna road, Dwarka Expressway


Lets’ discuss on this. Keep sharing your opinion.


Regards,
Greater Noida – Old sectors around Pari Chowk
Greater Noida – New Area (GNoida West / Noida exten)
Greate Noida – around Dadari (Anasal’s project etc)
GZB – Raj Nagar Exten, NH-24 (e.g. Crossing republic, ,Wave)
Faridabad – Nahar Par
YERDA-
Gurgaon – Sohna road, Dwarka Expressway


Lets’ discuss on this. Keep sharing your opinion.


Regards,
Greater Noida – Old sectors around Pari Chowk
Greater Noida – New Area (GNoida West / Noida exten)
Greate Noida – around Dadari (Anasal’s project etc)
GZB – Raj Nagar Exten, NH-24 (e.g. Crossing republic, ,Wave)
Faridabad – Nahar Par
YERDA-
Gurgaon – Sohna road, Dwarka Expressway


Lets’ discuss on this. Keep sharing your opinion.


Regards,
Greater Noida – Old sectors around Pari Chowk
Greater Noida – New Area (GNoida West / Noida exten)
Greate Noida – around Dadari (Anasal’s project etc)
GZB – Raj Nagar Exten, NH-24 (e.g. Crossing republic, ,Wave)
Faridabad – Nahar Par
YERDA-
Gurgaon – Sohna road, Dwarka Expressway


Lets’ discuss on this. Keep sharing your opinion.


Regards,
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  • This is definitely correct. In the coming 5 years, most of the underconnstruction projects will be ready for occupying. But the buyers most of these flats are not the actual people who want to live in there, but they bought it for sheer investment purpose. Thus after 5 years, there would be a a lot and lot of ready to move flats available in Noida, GN , Ghaziabad, YEW. Even still we can see more project launches but due to missing actual inhabitants, the supply of RTM flats is going to go too high and that will definitely lead to price downfall or the stagnation of prices for a lot of time.
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  • Originally Posted by rohitgrayc
    This is definitely correct. In the coming 5 years, most of the underconnstruction projects will be ready for occupying. But the buyers most of these flats are not the actual people who want to live in there, but they bought it for sheer investment purpose. Thus after 5 years, there would be a a lot and lot of ready to move flats available in Noida, GN , Ghaziabad, YEW. Even still we can see more project launches but due to missing actual inhabitants, the supply of RTM flats is going to go too high and that will definitely lead to price downfall or the stagnation of prices for a lot of time.


    downfall unlikely boss.. indians have lot of holding power and hence prices never come down

    but yes stagnation may be there definitely
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  • I think Rates will not decrease due to this real HUGE oversupply..... but there are full chances that Society Flats will have Stagnation in Price at Current LEVEL in RESALE Transactions in 2013.

    Even if we analyze the Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2011 (Jan-2011 / Dec-2011 there is around 25%-30% appreciation) and then if we compare it with Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2012 (maximum 8-10% increase in 10 months in 95% societies) then it shows that appreciation in % in Resale Rates is on Downward side from 30% to 10% in almost same time frame... So we can think of Stagnation in Resale Rates at current level in year 2013 or maximum 8-10% increase as 2012...

    LET US SEE What happen Actually.... BTW No one can predict RE Perfectly.
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  • Originally Posted by saurabh2011
    I think Rates will not decrease due to this real HUGE oversupply..... but there are full chances that Society Flats will have Stagnation in Price at Current LEVEL in RESALE Transactions in 2013.

    Even if we analyze the Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2011 (Jan-2011 / Dec-2011 there is around 25%-30% appreciation) and then if we compare it with Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2012 (maximum 8-10% increase in 10 months in 95% societies) then it shows that appreciation in % in Resale Rates is on Downward side from 30% to 10% in almost same time frame... So we can think of Stagnation in Resale Rates at current level in year 2013 or maximum 8-10% increase as 2012...

    LET US SEE What happen Actually.... BTW No one can predict RE Perfectly.




    All data is on general basis ,thereare people who got no appreciation in last 3 years,some got 25% compounded in last 3 years and will get same in next 2 years.
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  • Originally Posted by saurabh2011
    I think Rates will not decrease due to this real HUGE oversupply..... but there are full chances that Society Flats will have Stagnation in Price at Current LEVEL in RESALE Transactions in 2013.

    Even if we analyze the Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2011 (Jan-2011 / Dec-2011 there is around 25%-30% appreciation) and then if we compare it with Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2012 (maximum 8-10% increase in 10 months in 95% societies) then it shows that appreciation in % in Resale Rates is on Downward side from 30% to 10% in almost same time frame... So we can think of Stagnation in Resale Rates at current level in year 2013 or maximum 8-10% increase as 2012...

    LET US SEE What happen Actually.... BTW No one can predict RE Perfectly.

    saurabh bhai what are your views abt NE in 2-3 yrs time .. can it really cross 4000 rates ?
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  • Originally Posted by trialsurvey
    saurabh bhai what are your views abt NE in 2-3 yrs time .. can it really cross 4000 rates ?


    Yes...
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  • Originally Posted by saurabh2011
    Yes...


    wah ... phir toh yaar abhi bhi 3000 ke aas paas bhi its not a bad buy
    :)
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  • There are various points to calculate the appreciation even in same area. No one can generalize the growth rate among all projects or land sale. The biggest point of consideration is that land price has never come down in long run and will keep increasing in future too. Flat prices will not increase in same ratio but again, in long run, it will also not decrease. It may get stagnant for some time. People who have holding power, will hold for longer. The simple demand-supply rule never worked in India because in reality, demand is and will always be much-much higher compare to supply because of huge population.
    The deciding factor for Indian peoples is cost of flat/houses which they can afford. For some it is 15 lacks and for some it is 15 crores. If dealings are in middle class reach, no project can remain unsold in India. If person has adequate patience, property is and will be always one of the best investments in India (not only in NCR).
    Examples are very visible: See new Rohini sectors (28, 30 etc), no one is there to live, no roads, no electricity, only yellow DDA flats of few sqr meters with bare walls and price range is more than 50 lacks. See the GN(W) aka Noida Extension - Many projects have not even started digging and price has already crossed 3000/sqft. See Sohna road/Dwarka expway - prices are soaring to 5000+/sqft. See GN main, land rates are more than 50K+/sqm in many sectors. Best example is YEW -- its just barren land, farmer issue, HC/SC cases and rates are 30K in some projects.
    Where is the bubble???
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  • Property Appreciation

    It depends on will of authority and UP government to large extent.

    Due to its proximity with Delhi, and large talent pool, Noida/Greater Noida have the ability to make UP the biggest service sector in the country especially in IT and KPO.

    Many businesses are interested in shifting to Noida, and one can expect a huge flow of salaried class to move and set up base here.

    Also any investment appreciation for a real estate is also a factor of proximity to leading landmarks, office space, and standard of living like open spaces, facilities it provides.

    Personally I am not that buoyant about Greater Noida (W), but feel that properties on Noida Expressway, Chi V (Greater Noida), near knowledge Park have a good chance of good appreciation.
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  • I think the regions close to developed regions whether its delhi, noida city, gurgaon city will never have shortage of demand

    The further you go away from main developed regions, the lesser the demand
    There is a Huge Supply....very true..but a lot of this supply is far off also

    As long as you have property close to developed belts, its ok

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  • Good Morning!
    We have a live reference of Greater Noida; please refer its launch and price appreciation (better say stagnation).
    Many big projects in this area are struggling badly, whether it is township project or multistory projects.

    Many other townships are in plan or already exist in near to NCR areas (e.g. Crossing Republic, Megapolis, Wave near GNaoida)
    I really do not know whether this much sousing requirement is there or not.

    Let’s take an example, when Crossing Republic was launch around 2900-3000 4-5 yrs ago (plz rectify if figure is not correct). But it was a time (2-3 yrs ago) when CR flats was available at 1700-2000.
    Now too CR rate would be around its launching rate. If someone invested in this area for appreciation than what is return?
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  • Originally Posted by stormtroopers
    Good Morning!
    We have a live reference of Greater Noida; please refer its launch and price appreciation (better say stagnation).
    Many big projects in this area are struggling badly, whether it is township project or multistory projects.

    Many other townships are in plan or already exist in near to NCR areas (e.g. Crossing Republic, Megapolis, Wave near GNaoida)
    I really do not know whether this much sousing requirement is there or not.

    Let’s take an example, when Crossing Republic was launch around 2900-3000 4-5 yrs ago (plz rectify if figure is not correct). But it was a time (2-3 yrs ago) when CR flats was available at 1700-2000.
    Now too CR rate would be around its launching rate. If someone invested in this area for appreciation than what is return?


    CR was launched at 2900-3000 ? bhai as far as i remember it was more in the range of 2200-2300
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  • 1750 if i m nt wrong
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  • Bhai Log.

    I discussed all the issue with my wife and she told following points, decide urself,

    1. There are strong demand for price correction (As we all know, current price is very high) - Only waiting for right cause.
    2. Govt rate for plots in NE are also increasing (BY authority) so builders will not be able to lower the price due to economical feasibility of their project)
    3. In Indian Real Estate - Investors who can hold the property for sometime, will never be in loss (Either CR or YEW or anywhere).
    4. Correction period is never long as more than 2-3 years then after that, again hype by broker/investor nexus.
    5. India has big population - NE/YEW/GN will be populated well depending on connectivity.
    6. For new immigrants - these new areas will be the only option as the prices in old populated area is quite high.
    7. Check the history - how many people comming veryday to NCR.and atlest 10% stay here for ever and 3% of them need own houses. Just think total volume of new flats in all these areas together (Not over 10Lakhs after 3-4 years).
    8. People are developing Kundli/Manesar/Palwal/Faridabad/Merut/Bulandshahar/Bhiwadi then what GN/NE/DEW/YEW.Think bullet train.
    9. When Gurgaon was developing people were not purchasing there now most of us are not in position to purchase in that area due to rate.
    10. Only thing to watch is right entry time.
    11. Forget the concept of Ghost town in China (See google on this topic) for NCR.
    12. Purchasing capacity is increasing like anything.
    13. Good child education/ own shelter is the first priority for any good wife.
    14. Remember the past = I have not purchased property in ...../...../,,,,,/....area because they were remote and unpopulated at that time but now rates are veryvery high.

    Any more question???? Let me know , I will ask my wife when she will back from India with her two kids after vacation.

    These ladies have great ideas and analysis on investment and money matters as well keeping eye on husband affairs.
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  • yes keeping eye on husband affair make them so smart ...
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