Heard that ATS is coming up with their Residential project in sec 109 in 14 acres , next to atharva.....

Anybody having any more info on this....????
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  • Originally Posted by BlessU
    Hi
    Greetings

    Yes thats correct was just attempting at correcting at getting the right interpretation for the beta coefficient in RE which is far higher than a simple bank interest rate.. and was trying to apprise him that certain loyalists dont mind paying even if it is raised to the power theta or gamma..

    I think I was not talking standing on top of mount Everest:bab (38): something less technical I mean.. request some reactions if you agree to my earlier post??


    Cheers


    ya i agree, but People who Invest they have a fair idea about the roi and their anticipated beta.unfortunately here the beta coeff. are Not established and cannot Be established Till an Exchange and Regulator Comes in.simple fact is if the Cost of Capital is lese than the Npv or if the irr is good then there is nothing wrong to Invest. the empirical Data in RE returns Show that the returns are always higher ( may Be in Cash) if you Invest at the conception of an idea and in this Case they call it pre Launch.( everyOne has a different Perception of their own beta coeff. and thus Gamma and Deltas degrees are always a finite value in their Npv calculation.
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  • Bhai, insider information to ATS ke loyalists ke pass hi hain . They might be able to help u out, just might be, lgata hain unko use karke ATS ne laat maar di hain . Woh bhi confused hain, kabhi kuuch aur kabhi kuuch bolte hain, unke bhrose maat rahene, duub jao ge .

    Originally Posted by sikkaji
    Manoj-ji - the rate works out to 4350. Could it be from "now over" Chintel's pre-launch ? ATS is not budging from 4800 CLP launch ! This is so confusing.
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  • I hope u can take a decision, which is beneficial to u . Just forget all the hype/all the lies being propagated here . Just relax & decide on your own . U know, what u want & u r the best judge .

    Best of luck .


    Originally Posted by DangRh
    Thanks for your very informative and quick reply.
    This reply raised my bars of expectations from you :)
    For sure this will help me taking a right decision.
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  • Originally Posted by Indiaa
    ya i agree, but People who Invest they have a fair idea about the roi and their anticipated beta.unfortunately here the beta coeff. are Not established and cannot Be established Till an Exchange and Regulator Comes in.simple fact is if the Cost of Capital is lese than the Npv or if the irr is good then there is nothing wrong to Invest. the empirical Data in RE returns Show that the returns are always higher ( may Be in Cash) if you Invest at the conception of an idea and in this Case they call it pre Launch.( everyOne has a different Perception of their own beta coeff. and thus Gamma and Deltas degrees are always a finite value in their Npv calculation.


    Hi
    Greetings

    The AHP algorithm however proves to the contrary and is indicative of lesser than market returns and a possible shrinkage of Capital in medium to long term extrapolation..

    Both subjective and objective evaluation parameters of the project show negative indicators and less than normal bias towards a purchase decisions..

    Individual weight ages notwithstanding, plausible alternatives score far higher for this location, considering retardant variables..

    In summation not a healthy proposition

    Cheers
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  • BlessU Bhai, Indiaa Ji ko confuse maat karo, acchi baat nahi hain .

    Got to go . Goodnight .
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  • hi

    Originally Posted by BlessU
    Hi
    Greetings

    The AHP algorithm however proves to the contrary and is indicative of lesser than market returns and a possible shrinkage of Capital in medium to long term extrapolation..

    Both subjective and objective evaluation parameters of the project show negative indicators and less than normal bias towards a purchase decisions..

    Individual weight ages notwithstanding, plausible alternatives score far higher for this location, considering retardant variables..

    In summation not a healthy proposition




    thats your POV. i Respekt that. Even Warren Buffet didn't
    Invest in google or .

    Lot of People Feeling Safe and happy with ATS and this project, its evident and seems to Be a healthy proposition.

    ps: please revise your Theory ,its Not up to the Mark and some what irrelevant. enough to Impress lesser Educated,Self styled Experts.:D

    nö One used ahp Theory to Invest in re in India. there are Lot of unknown, intangible Factors that cannot Be quantified and thus a numerical Solution may Not be derived at with surety. for this location, considering retardant variables..

    In summation not a healthy proposition




    thats your POV. i Respekt that. Even Warren Buffet didn't
    Invest in google or .

    Lot of People Feeling Safe and happy with ATS and this project, its evident and seems to Be a healthy proposition.

    ps: please revise your Theory ,its Not up to the Mark and some what irrelevant. enough to Impress lesser Educated,Self styled Experts.:D

    nö One used ahp Theory to Invest in re in India. there are Lot of unknown, intangible Factors that cannot Be quantified and thus a numerical Solution may Not be derived at with surety.
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  • Originally Posted by Indiaa
    Originally Posted by BlessU
    Hi
    Greetings

    The AHP algorithm however proves to the contrary and is indicative of lesser than market returns and a possible shrinkage of Capital in medium to long term extrapolation..

    Both subjective and objective evaluation parameters of the project show negative indicators and less than normal bias towards a purchase decisions..

    Individual weight ages notwithstanding, plausible alternatives score far higher for this location, considering retardant variables..

    In summation not a healthy proposition




    thats your POV. i Respekt that. Even Warren Buffet didn't
    Invest in google or .

    Lot of People Feeling Safe and happy with ATS and this project, its evident and seems to Be a healthy proposition.

    ps: please revise your Theory ,its Not up to the Mark and some what irrelevant. enough to Impress lesser Educated,Self styled Experts.:D

    nö One used ahp Theory to Invest in re in India. there are Lot of unknown, intangible Factors that cannot Be quantified and thus a numerical Solution may Not be derived at with surety.


    Hi
    Greetings

    He He cants stop laughing.. thats what I meant when I said " am I shouting from top of mount everest"??

    It doesnt need euclidean mathematics dear to determine that those visiting the location might turn mucky and their investments soggy..

    Cheers

    PS AHP algorithms accomodates all types of variables, quantifiable or not..(this is for the benefit of lesser educated self styled experts he he) and good night

    Hi
    Greetings

    He He cants stop laughing.. thats what I meant when I said " am I shouting from top of mount everest"??

    It doesnt need euclidean mathematics dear to determine that those visiting the location might turn mucky and their investments soggy..

    Cheers

    PS AHP algorithms accomodates all types of variables, quantifiable or not..(this is for the benefit of lesser educated self styled experts he he) and good night
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  • Originally Posted by BlessU
    Originally Posted by Indiaa


    Hi
    Greetings

    He He cants stop laughing.. thats what I meant when I said " am I shouting from top of mount everest"??

    It doesnt need euclidean mathematics dear to determine that those visiting the location might turn mucky and their investments soggy..

    Cheers

    PS AHP algorithms accomodates all types of variables, quantifiable or not.. he he




    agree but Not when we are talking about Npv and irr. Nice chatting...take Care.
    agree but Not when we are talking about Npv and irr. Nice chatting...take Care.
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  • Originally Posted by treo55
    Calculations:
    Total sq ft area = 1918400
    Cost of Land = 140 cr/ 1918400 = 730 psf
    Cost of construction = 400cr/1918400 = 2085 psf !
    Total ATS investment = 140 cr only , because it will get 4300 as DP so thats about 825 crore (4300*Total sqft).
    Immediate profit made on an investment of 140 cr is ( 825-140) = 685 cr which is about 500% ROI (not to be sneezed at !!) and this has been done before a spoon of dirt is moved on the site.
    Now lets say ATS takes only 3 years to deliver. If ATS simply invests this bulk amount in the market for paltry 15% returns (even FDs offer 10% now) it gains 124 crore per year in interest alone. At this rate 124*3 = 375 so the interest itself will pay for the construction.
    The interest from this day 1 profit contructs the house for you at 2k construction cost.
    (Ofcourse my example is tax neutral)
    Now throw in the late delivery, loading ratio or all the usual the profit can be geared for any % ATS desires anytime during the project- not that i am hinting they would do so knowing they have to reputation to save.
    (*BTW i thought 4300 was only the BSP - what is the final outgo?)

    In ur calculation the following requires some attention :

    1. According to you All 100 Per cent inventory is sold on Day 1 at 4300 DP.
    2. According to you there are no CLP sales where only 30 per cent comes in at booking. CLP plan should be available to us on formal launch.
    3. You have calculated TOTAL area and included revenue from Towers given to Chintels.
    4. On what basis have you assumed cost of construction to be just around 2100 sq ft as there are costs for common amenities , super area etc too..please visit ATS GREENS VILLAGE to see the club house, pool, Maintinance offucevetc part from basement car parks etc along with other amenities...every thing adds up.
    5. You have nt assumed any marketing cost.
    6. You have conveniently taken out 40 per cent tax on profits .....40 percent tax is no smalll number
    7. What about the cost of money for 540 Crores? 540 crores .
    8. What about csts of Administration, management and normal well known over heads?

    And to be honest, it is great tat ATS makes some profit, only a profitable company delivers good results.

    All good reality companies should target a 30 per cent gross margin to make atleast net margin of 18 per cent which is industry norm in developed areas where land is expensive .

    Please make adjustments on above Eight points .....interesting read.

    Thnx
    VB
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  • Originally Posted by vb2309
    In ur calculation the following requires some attention :

    1. According to you All 100 Per cent inventory is sold on Day 1 at 4300 DP.
    2. According to you there are no CLP sales where only 30 per cent comes in at booking. CLP plan should be available to us on formal launch.
    3. You have calculated TOTAL area and included revenue from Towers given to Chintels.
    4. On what basis have you assumed cost of construction to be just around 2100 sq ft as there are costs for common amenities , super area etc too..please visit ATS GREENS VILLAGE to see the club house, pool, Maintinance offucevetc part from basement car parks etc along with other amenities...every thing adds up.
    5. You have nt assumed any marketing cost.
    6. You have conveniently taken out 40 per cent tax on profits .....40 percent tax is no smalll number
    7. What about the cost of money for 540 Crores? 540 crores .
    8. What about csts of Administration, management and normal well known over heads?

    And to be honest, it is great tat ATS makes some profit, only a profitable company delivers good results.

    All good reality companies should target a 30 per cent gross margin to make atleast net margin of 18 per cent which is industry norm in developed areas where land is expensive .

    Please make adjustments on above Eight points .....interesting read.

    Thnx
    VB


    very well sirji...Great Write up!!
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  • Thanks vb2309, I was about to respond but you have highlighted the overly simplistic assumption specially point no. 1. If this was the case no builder would ever have to raise money from market. DLF, Unitech and other builder's debt condition is no secret.
    HDFC Reality is apparently putting in 200 Cr for one of these projects. I bet the returns expected would be way better than "lending rates to realtors".
    As I said the cost of raising capital probably is the next biggest expense (after spending for land and development) dwarfing their administrative and other costs.

    BTW to your point no. 4, the per sqft rate does accounts for common area development as well (entire total cost/sale-able sq ft.).



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  • It seems its more lucarative to be investing with PEs and REITs !!

    Definately more transparent, safer and a lot liquid !!
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  • I have given 3 cheques to Chintels to book 4350.
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  • Originally Posted by vb2309
    In ur calculation the following requires some attention :

    1. According to you All 100 Per cent inventory is sold on Day 1 at 4300 DP.
    > The CLP price is even higher at 4700-4800, a builder does not loose profits due to CLP. Whether you use 4300 DP or 4800 CLP it does not matter.

    2. According to you there are no CLP sales where only 30 per cent comes in at booking. CLP plan should be available to us on formal launch.
    > Same as above.

    3. You have calculated TOTAL area and included revenue from Towers given to Chintels.
    > Since all costs are also shown to be borne by ATS, hence given the revenues to ATS as well. It does not matter in margins calculation how the profits are shared between ATS, chintel or xyz. BTW what really is the payment for Chintels for? I thought ATS owns the land ?

    4. On what basis have you assumed cost of construction to be just around 2100 sq ft as there are costs for common amenities , super area etc too..please visit ATS GREENS VILLAGE to see the club house, pool, Maintinance offucevetc part from basement car parks etc along with other amenities...every thing adds up.
    >Super area already included in flat area, sikkaji has pointed that out.

    5. You have nt assumed any marketing cost.
    > Agree but it is going to minimal cost. Anyways ATS does not use brokers also i heard.

    6. You have conveniently taken out 40 per cent tax on profits .....40 percent tax is no smalll number.
    >Margins are compared before taxes as a practise across industries, since taxes are paid by everyone and nothing can be done about them. Paying 30% tax on 400-500% profits should not be an issue or would investors be asked to pay taxes on behalf of ATS even then ;)


    7. What about the cost of money for 540 Crores? 540 crores .
    > The investment on part of ATS is 140 cr only. Rest comes from buyers in advance. Whether DP or CLP is not of much relevance.

    8. What about csts of Administration, management and normal well known over heads?
    > So the 'Royal' -> 2000+ psf construction cost doesn't cover these costs, that could be sad?
    > If you are talking political/DTCP bribes then at 60 cr this is covered by 6 months delay in construction to 3.5 yrs.

    And to be honest, it is great tat ATS makes some profit, only a profitable company delivers good results.

    All good reality companies should target a 30 per cent gross margin to make atleast net margin of 18 per cent which is industry norm in developed areas where land is expensive .
    > I made things simple to show the margins - a lil expenses here and there would not change things from the current figures.

    Please make adjustments on above Eight points .....interesting read.
    > Margins like these are not sustainable in the longer run. To maintain these margins you need to control inventory and to do that you need to maintain landbanks and that interest outgo is bleeding the DLFs and UNITECHs dry today. If you think the RE firms value loyalty over their survival and will not lower rates just save some skins in the game then its a risk to ponder upon.
    This is like betting where you have the least information, the industry is opaque and liquidity rules. It takes just 5-10 months to prove an excellent RE invesment done 30 years back to be a wrong investment. Look at USA, Dubai, Spain, Greece, UK, Japan.

    Thnx
    VB


    Did u get a chance to compare the RE rates of USA with India? You might just be pleasantly surprised ;)
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  • Originally Posted by treo55
    Did u get a chance to compare the RE rates of USA with India? You might just be pleasantly surprised ;)

    I disagree with your analysis And responses.
    MOST of These are incorrect.

    Your very assumption of selling all flats on day one at DP is false and baseless.

    If this was true then every Tom Dick and Harry would be a big real estate builder.

    At CLP the inflow is 30 per cent , as u said Liquidity. Profit on DP OF 4300 and CLP 4800 is a different matter.
    Thanks for the response any way.

    Cheers
    VB
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