40% rates will definitely decrease in gurgaon.

Any doubt?
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  • 100% doubtfull.... i am looking to buy some thing from last 3 month...no successfull... 40% a dream this time
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  • Originally Posted by samie001
    100% doubtfull.... i am looking to buy some thing from last 3 month...no successfull... 40% a dream this time



    Rate will start decreasing from month of June.

    If any one doubt then we can discuss
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  • 40% will never ever happen. End users have a good chance of picking RTM or under-construction projects of their choice at this time. Price might go 5% or more down, but you can't time that. Negotiate hard and you would be able to get 5% even right now.
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  • Originally Posted by KB_may2010
    Rate will start decreasing from month of June.

    If any one doubt then we can discuss


    Sir any logical reason behind this correction? Please explain in detail.
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  • Interesting!!
    Are you anticipating price fall in whole NCR or Gurgaon only?
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  • Originally Posted by KB_may2010
    40% rates will definitely decrease in gurgaon.

    Any doubt?

    Kuchh zyada he bol diya hai aapne.10 se 20 percent tak to theek hai.Lagta nahi ki rates itne giren
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  • Originally Posted by KB_may2010
    Rate will start decreasing from month of June.

    If any one doubt then we can discuss

    Can you give some solid reasons for this huge anticipated decline.
    Lagta hai aapne aise he Shurla chhod diya hai IREF mein.
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  • galat jawab...it will be 60% not 40. This prediction is straight from the horses's mouth - deepau* bhai has told me after discussing with every builder and all the politicians.
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  • Originally Posted by KB_may2010
    40% rates will definitely decrease in gurgaon.

    Any doubt?


    sirjee kaash aapki baat sach nikle. i m looking after a flat form past 6 months but rates are on uptrend only..

    sirjee have u done any analysis or aiwe hi ?
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  • Possible explanation

    Originally Posted by Varun84
    Sir any logical reason behind this correction? Please explain in detail.



    Generally accepted formula as indicated by BoB ( Bank of Baroda) in RE capital is

    25% promoter + 25% Loans + 50% Cash flow (investors, end users etc through down payment payments linked to progress etc).

    So private investors and end users contribute to half the cash flow. Earlier, the rates at the time of launch were low - between 3K to 5K/ sqft. So investors used to block in lot . ENd user too could afford it .

    So, the builder had an assured cash flow during construction. The builder used to absorb the fluctuations in construction costs through various means like cutting some corners here and there etc.

    But what had happened post 2008 crash is that all these RE companies, in a bid to recover the losses they suffered during 2008/8, went for the kill. They shot the prices up by 30% within weeks of a rumored market revival ( post the BSE / NSE crash).

    Prices in Mumbai ( EVERY SINGLE LOCALITY OF MUMBAI) doubles between 2008 and 2011. So, naturally investors and end users withdrew. No buyer whether investor or end user can afford / absorb that much inflation in prices.

    So basically there are no bookings .

    As a result of this RE companies can not go to the banks for restructuring of loans or buy time. Because there is no pipe line.. Simple question banks are asking the RE companies is How you will generate cash when there are no buyers ? For which they have no answers.

    Any product , RE included needs consumers. Consumers look at affordability. Simple rule. So, for RE companies to survive, they need to SELL their buildings. At present rates, two types of people are buying (a) People who have no idea and always in the loop that 'bhaav badega' . because property ka rate kabhi nahi ghatega.. (b) Black money/ disposable income. But this is a fraction of what used to be the buyer base in 2008/9.

    So one and only way to survive is by selling their inventory. One and only way to sell inventory is by making their product affordable.

    So , logically, the prices at which buyers could afford are the prices they have to be reduced - which stand between 40 to 50% of the current price.
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  • Originally Posted by shkhan
    galat jawab...it will be 60% not 40. This prediction is straight from the horses's mouth - deepau* bhai has told me after discussing with every builder and all the politicians.


    Those who don't know this tilismi horse -

    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/noida-real-estate/25689-akhileshs-secret-proposal-to-credai/page73?t=27763&page=73
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  • Originally Posted by passion4trade
    sirjee kaash aapki baat sach nikle. i m looking after a flat form past 6 months but rates are on uptrend only..

    sirjee have u done any analysis or aiwe hi ?

    I am sitting on the fence desperately since last three years for RE prices to decline in NCR.To my utter disgust prices have been rising every month with new launces at new heights as far as pricing is concerned.
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  • Originally Posted by passion4trade
    sirjee kaash aapki baat sach nikle. i m looking after a flat form past 6 months but rates are on uptrend only..

    sirjee have u done any analysis or aiwe hi ?


    Dont worry, the prices shall began to come down from the day when there would be more seller than buyer. How and what trigger this correction that nobody knows.......but as per law of Newton theory which goes up have to be come down ....graph cant be always unidirectional....However, still have doubt that could all this laws precisely imposed on Indian RE sector? And how severe downfall should have to be to make RE affordable for general class.....in normal condition dont expect more than 5-15% ...
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  • There is another side of this.

    The new disease affecting the RE business is called 'PRE LAUNCH'. Nowhere else in the world such thing exists. Builders , in desperation selling concept even before the project is off the drawing boards.

    - No approval from muncipal authorities
    - No land deed
    - No plan ready

    But pre launches are advertised in news papers. And news papers pictured rosy pictures in their RE suppliments - from ToI to DNA.

    if one looks at these suppliments, there is no mention of the bleeding side of the RE business. It is a type of propaganda ( example " 'RE is BOOMING in Navi Mumbai'..where as Khargar looks like a ghost city). lol.

    As a results, people lost faith in the RE juggernaut of India . Except for one or two major developers who are concerned about their reputation, all other builders lie. And hence , most of the projects not even took off from the ground level even after an year of SOFT LAUNCH.

    This actually played a spoil sport.

    Pricing too can be managed. But faith in the market can not be manipulated. RE people played with buyers faith and are paying the price.
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  • Originally Posted by monkatheart1
    Generally accepted formula as indicated by BoB ( Bank of Baroda) in RE capital is

    25% promoter + 25% Loans + 50% Cash flow (investors, end users etc through down payment payments linked to progress etc).

    So private investors and end users contribute to half the cash flow. Earlier, the rates at the time of launch were low - between 3K to 5K/ sqft. So investors used to block in lot . ENd user too could afford it .

    So, the builder had an assured cash flow during construction. The builder used to absorb the fluctuations in construction costs through various means like cutting some corners here and there etc.

    But what had happened post 2008 crash is that all these RE companies, in a bid to recover the losses they suffered during 2008/8, went for the kill. They shot the prices up by 30% within weeks of a rumored market revival ( post the BSE / NSE crash).

    Prices in Mumbai ( EVERY SINGLE LOCALITY OF MUMBAI) doubles between 2008 and 2011. So, naturally investors and end users withdrew. No buyer whether investor or end user can afford / absorb that much inflation in prices.

    So basically there are no bookings .

    As a result of this RE companies can not go to the banks for restructuring of loans or buy time. Because there is no pipe line.. Simple question banks are asking the RE companies is How you will generate cash when there are no buyers ? For which they have no answers.

    Any product , RE included needs consumers. Consumers look at affordability. Simple rule. So, for RE companies to survive, they need to SELL their buildings. At present rates, two types of people are buying (a) People who have no idea and always in the loop that 'bhaav badega' . because property ka rate kabhi nahi ghatega.. (b) Black money/ disposable income. But this is a fraction of what used to be the buyer base in 2008/9.

    So one and only way to survive is by selling their inventory. One and only way to sell inventory is by making their product affordable.

    So , logically, the prices at which buyers could afford are the prices they have to be reduced - which stand between 40 to 50% of the current price.

    In Indian RE pure economic principles do not hold good.Black money plays a dominant role and prices are controlled by investors,brokers and builders and the end user has a limited role in RE pricing.Under these circumstances 40 percent decline in RE prices will be a doom for all the stakeholders and is not expected under present scenario.
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