Get the long version here:

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/other-forums/general-real-estate-discussion/12842-long-term-predictions-2011-2012-2013-and-now-2014/page12?t=15139&page=12

Summary below:

Predictions for 2013:

1. Stocks up. Possibly 25% return can be expected. Sensex 25000. Main propelling drivers will be some governance improvement and US climbing over the fiscal cliff (happened already after I wrote this) and unleashing another round of liquidity. Stocks should remain steadily up throughout from now till 2014 budget at least. SIP should continue and any dips should be used to buy.

2. Best sectors: cyclical and infrastructure, construction, cement, banks.

3. Avoid: FMCG and durables because of saturation and belt tightening and overvalued share prices.

4. Bonds: Mild 0.25 % fall in Repo rates is the best that can be expected. RBI unlikely to reduce further. Returns are not enough to justify eschewing stocks in favour of bonds – so if you are overweight bonds, sell now and shift to stocks.

5. FD: Returns of 8% plus will continue. Best safe and high returns available. At least 30% should be here or in PF.

6. Real estate: Stagnant markets are likely. No need to increase exposure at this juncture – but also no need to sell existing investments – hold what you already have.

7. Best RE market (for those underexposed to RE currently) for 2013 is likely to be Bangalore, Chennai, Chandigarh, Bhubaneshwar and certain locations of Mumbai – although 2014 will be better for Mumbai than 2013 on the back of good stock market performance.

8. Steady markets will be Gurgaon flats, NOIDA extension, Jaipur, Lucknow, Coimbatore, Mangalore, Kolkata, most of Mumbai, Pune and Dehradun.

9. Falling or steady with slight downward trend type of markets will be in NOIDA central, Kundli, Delhi builder floors and Lal Dora, Gurgaon plots, Dwarka expressway, NOIDA expressway, Yamuna Expressway, Faridabad, Bhiwadi/Daruhera, Neemrana.

10. Gold: Stagnant prices. Rupee strengthening will wipe out the returns of the fiscal cliff being climbed.

11. Dollar: Weak at 51-53 levels for most of the year.

12. Oil: Weak. NYMEX 85-90. Brent 100-110. Not much movement

13. RBI repo: maximum 0.25% cut.

Caveats:

1. Govt falls. This will kill the Rupee, Real estate and stock markets. Gold will shoot up. Same effect as war = do the same things, sell stocks, bonds and buy gold.

2. War involving us, Pak, China, South Korea, Argentina or Iran: Same results as above.

ASSETS FOR INDIA:

Asset of 2013 = stocks

Asset of the decade = Real estate

Asset of the next 3 decades = stocks

Asset to avoid in 2013 = gold.

Asset to avoid in the next decade = gold. With 2014/15/16 being short term exception as detailed above. You can avoid gold altogether and ride out disturbances in FD plus RE also.

Asset to avoid in next 3 decades = gold. It will extinguish as asset after 2018 or so.

Value is what humans place on a thing – if a thing is prized, it is priced high. If a thing is no longer prized, it will not be priced. Not even gold.
Read more
Reply
37 Replies
Sort by :Filter by :
  • Go to the end of the page for India predictions
    CommentQuote
  • first please add bit of background about yourself or the person who has given this prediction.

    One should know if a biology teacher is giving predictions about economics or a music teacher is giving such predictions.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by golu11
    first please add bit of background about yourself or the person who has given this prediction.

    One should know if a biology teacher is giving predictions about economics or a music teacher is giving such predictions.


    I am a doctor giving these predictions about economics
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    I am a doctor giving these predictions about economics


    Thank God , at least you are not a dance teacher :). Doctors have great analytical and diagnostic skills.
    CommentQuote
  • Can you tell what is the basis of this prediction? How can we believe that its not biased in any way?
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by jatin_ncr
    Can you tell what is the basis of this prediction? How can we believe that its not biased in any way?

    Good Point...
    even I am confused when I read Noida Extension would be more steady as compare to Noida.
    How?? when still cases are pending in SC !! and resale has not started..
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    I am a doctor giving these predictions about economics

    anyone can make out after reading couple of lines that this was been written by a person who doesn't have any knowledge of finance and economics.

    for doctor one has to study Biology as a subject till 12th... so my prediction about the background of the person was almost correct!!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by cookie
    Good Point...
    even I am confused when I read Noida Extension would be more steady as compare to Noida.
    How?? when still cases are pending in SC !! and resale has not started..


    Because prices are lower in NE. People can afford to buy.

    Prices in main noida and expressway are too high for normal people. So no upside from here.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by golu11
    anyone can make out after reading couple of lines that this was been written by a person who doesn't have any knowledge of finance and economics.

    for doctor one has to study Biology as a subject till 12th... so my prediction about the background of the person was almost correct!!


    Why dont you check out my last 2 years predictions by following the link in the first post above.

    I am very much a biologist still. My bread and butter.

    All this is only pickle.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks

    Asset to avoid in next 3 decades = gold. It will extinguish as asset after 2018 or so.


    Nice post Venky. I have been studying Gold and its upsides and trends, but not able to understand the logic behind 2018 ?

    what gonna happen around or after that
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    Because prices are lower in NE. People can afford to buy.

    Prices in main noida and expressway are too high for normal people. So no upside from here.

    But RTM properties always command more premium....any project in NE is not going to be delivered in next 2-3 years at least.. while Noida will have more and more properties RTM in 2013.
    when there is no resale, where is profit?

    NE has too much supply too..
    Expressway and NE market are not same..

    give by this logic, Gurgaon Flats too should not have steady market as compare to NEW Gurgaon/Dwarka Expressway which you predicated not as steady..

    well,, That's my view, I am not as knowledgeable
    CommentQuote
  • Gold has been prized since human race beginings. How will it not stay prized forever. Also only 2 sources for putting black money- land and gold. So gold will always be prized.
    CommentQuote
  • Mr Venkytalks, with due respect I disagree on few counts -
    a) Something that is cheaper will always appreciate faster than expensive is a myth. If thats were the case, then maximum appreciation in NCR should be in Kundli/ Sonepat belt. But that will not happen. Real estate is not about general demand & supply but its demand & supply in each particular area.
    b) I would beg to differ from economic sense, that Flats in Gurgaon will give better returns than Plots. Usually that happens rarely.
    c) Dont know freom where you got that fancy quotation that "Gold will become zero by 2018"???? There is no economic logic there!!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by vik99
    Nice post Venky. I have been studying Gold and its upsides and trends, but not able to understand the logic behind 2018 ?

    what gonna happen around or after that


    Check the main post for details. Also at venkytalks.b.logspot.com

    Originally Posted by cookie
    But RTM properties always command more premium....any project in NE is not going to be delivered in next 2-3 years at least.. while Noida will have more and more properties RTM in 2013.
    when there is no resale, where is profit?

    NE has too much supply too..
    Expressway and NE market are not same..

    give by this logic, Gurgaon Flats too should not have steady market as compare to NEW Gurgaon/Dwarka Expressway which you predicated not as steady..

    well,, That's my view, I am not as knowledgeable


    RTM is fair priced because bought by end user at present value

    UC is mispriced and valued at future value.

    Ggn and noida are not comparable

    Originally Posted by iforpunto
    Gold has been prized since human race beginings. How will it not stay prized forever. Also only 2 sources for putting black money- land and gold. So gold will always be prized.


    You need to read the whole predction for details. Follow link in first post and at venkytalks.b.logspot.com

    Originally Posted by jatin_ncr
    Mr Venkytalks, with due respect I disagree on few counts -
    a) Something that is cheaper will always appreciate faster than expensive is a myth. If thats were the case, then maximum appreciation in NCR should be in Kundli/ Sonepat belt. But that will not happen. Real estate is not about general demand & supply but its demand & supply in each particular area.
    b) I would beg to differ from economic sense, that Flats in Gurgaon will give better returns than Plots. Usually that happens rarely.
    c) Dont know freom where you got that fancy quotation that "Gold will become zero by 2018"???? There is no economic logic there!!


    Read the whole thing at same link. Flats in ggn gave better returns than plots in 2011 and 2012.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    Check the main post for details. Also at venkytalks.b.logspot.com



    RTM is fair priced because bought by end user at present value

    UC is mispriced and valued at future value.

    Ggn and noida are not comparable



    You need to read the whole predction for details. Follow link in first post and at venkytalks.b.logspot.com



    Read the whole thing at same link. Flats in ggn gave better returns than plots in 2011 and 2012.

    But resale is not allowed in NE, How to get returns in 2013??
    I am not comparing Gurgaon and Noida..

    I asked about Main Gurgaon and new Gurgaon/D-expressway. Main Gurgaon rates already too high..
    CommentQuote