Get the long version here:

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/other-forums/general-real-estate-discussion/12842-long-term-predictions-2011-2012-2013-and-now-2014/page12?t=15139&page=12

Summary below:

Predictions for 2013:

1. Stocks up. Possibly 25% return can be expected. Sensex 25000. Main propelling drivers will be some governance improvement and US climbing over the fiscal cliff (happened already after I wrote this) and unleashing another round of liquidity. Stocks should remain steadily up throughout from now till 2014 budget at least. SIP should continue and any dips should be used to buy.

2. Best sectors: cyclical and infrastructure, construction, cement, banks.

3. Avoid: FMCG and durables because of saturation and belt tightening and overvalued share prices.

4. Bonds: Mild 0.25 % fall in Repo rates is the best that can be expected. RBI unlikely to reduce further. Returns are not enough to justify eschewing stocks in favour of bonds – so if you are overweight bonds, sell now and shift to stocks.

5. FD: Returns of 8% plus will continue. Best safe and high returns available. At least 30% should be here or in PF.

6. Real estate: Stagnant markets are likely. No need to increase exposure at this juncture – but also no need to sell existing investments – hold what you already have.

7. Best RE market (for those underexposed to RE currently) for 2013 is likely to be Bangalore, Chennai, Chandigarh, Bhubaneshwar and certain locations of Mumbai – although 2014 will be better for Mumbai than 2013 on the back of good stock market performance.

8. Steady markets will be Gurgaon flats, NOIDA extension, Jaipur, Lucknow, Coimbatore, Mangalore, Kolkata, most of Mumbai, Pune and Dehradun.

9. Falling or steady with slight downward trend type of markets will be in NOIDA central, Kundli, Delhi builder floors and Lal Dora, Gurgaon plots, Dwarka expressway, NOIDA expressway, Yamuna Expressway, Faridabad, Bhiwadi/Daruhera, Neemrana.

10. Gold: Stagnant prices. Rupee strengthening will wipe out the returns of the fiscal cliff being climbed.

11. Dollar: Weak at 51-53 levels for most of the year.

12. Oil: Weak. NYMEX 85-90. Brent 100-110. Not much movement

13. RBI repo: maximum 0.25% cut.

Caveats:

1. Govt falls. This will kill the Rupee, Real estate and stock markets. Gold will shoot up. Same effect as war = do the same things, sell stocks, bonds and buy gold.

2. War involving us, Pak, China, South Korea, Argentina or Iran: Same results as above.

ASSETS FOR INDIA:

Asset of 2013 = stocks

Asset of the decade = Real estate

Asset of the next 3 decades = stocks

Asset to avoid in 2013 = gold.

Asset to avoid in the next decade = gold. With 2014/15/16 being short term exception as detailed above. You can avoid gold altogether and ride out disturbances in FD plus RE also.

Asset to avoid in next 3 decades = gold. It will extinguish as asset after 2018 or so.

Value is what humans place on a thing – if a thing is prized, it is priced high. If a thing is no longer prized, it will not be priced. Not even gold.