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NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

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  • Re : NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

    Originally posted by sourabhv View Post
    >20% CAGR on ATS Kocoon translates into 15k price on super area basis in 5 years. In that case, I would expect premium projects like Golf Estate to hold it's tag with 22-25k price on super area basis.

    That doesn't sound realistic unless rupee depreciates to 90-100.

    Regards,
    S

    First of all you are comparing wrong projects with each other.

    M3M Golf Estate is a super luxury project where current resale prices are 9000 to 10000 psf and Ats Kocoon is
    luxury appartment. Both have different specifications.

    You can compare Golf Estate with Diplomatic Greens or Emrald Bay.

    FYI Ats Kocoon current resale price are 5500 to 6000 psf. After 5 years Kocoon rate will be 12,000 to 13,000 psf.

    Golf Course Extension road stars from Rs 4000 psf and current resale prices are Rs 8000 to 10000 psf.

    Once Dew will be operational rates will be equivalent to Golf Course Road in next 5 years.
    You will not see greater increment of prices around Golf Course extension road.

    Comment


    • Re : NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

      My responses inline.

      Originally posted by ashu_sharmaa View Post
      The challenge with this argument is that either it is DLF or nothing - only one reputed builder and the benchmark. And only one model to follow. But if you test that across the country, there are very few places DLF is invested in commercials, so where does that leave this argument? Let me put it the other way. DLF can be an indicator of success, but that doesn't mean all success has to have a DLF indicator

      I agree with you it can never be a single formula of success but whatever little there has been is not jaw dropping or inspiring. Second/third grade builders do not have commercial leasing capabilities. Infact I am more confident on what Vatika can acheive in new GGN.

      Also, I would have conceded if you had mentioned sector-88 potential and rapid metro phase 3 connection to Cyber City. These two were the big x factors which emerged during my research. The names in commercials that you mentioned do not inspire confidence one bit. (hand on your heart).


      Shifting Goal posts: i have mentioned your changing goals, while quoting you verbatim. Please tell me why thats not 'shifting goal posts'.

      On this, we can continue to discuss till the time cow comes home. Answers and explanations sought flow from the discussion, it's not goal post shifting.

      Maybe I am justifying my investment decision, and maybe you are justifying yours (of not investing) - Do look at that possibility as well. Shifting goals is a good indicator of your bias. Another indicator is that you are spending time here to prove a point which has no material impact on you - strong emotions at play

      I respect your opinion and particularly because you are respectful and tolerant but the fact that I have no investments in the region, constrain me to express my viewpoint?

      You say '100 odd projects in pipeline and 2 schools'. I guess u didn't read that more school come up when demand builds up. 100 projects don't mean all delivered in next 2 yrs with 100% occupancy

      Again, selective picking up. What about other parameters? Good gentry moves in when the basics are in place.

      Now to reputable builder thing. You keep thinking of model where the whole area is planned out in advance with a DLF planning mega mall in the vicinity. The model works but that is not the only model. And it doesn't necessarily means that anything that doesn't fit in to that model will not work. Some areas have these mega-malls coming up later - GIP, Ambience anyone? And remember that some builders don't start reputed but reach that category with subsequent successes. (Unless u think that unitecs and dlfs were born big and reputed). So please understand that what doesn't fit into your model is not necessarily not good / good enough. Right timing and strategy (first mover advantage) and who knows one of the current minions might be the next mega mall. But u r not giving that possibility a chance

      I am not in agreement with you on this. VSR, Earth etc are builders which will give seedy office, commercial and retail space akin to what you get in Sohna.


      Yep who knows we might only see and need apps. With many malls struggling, its an indicator in the direction and times to come.

      I agree.

      I will just say this. For the kind of occupancy expected, current plan will meet requirements of the population. Its not insufficient. And certainly its not like there is no plan, as you were assuming. And i think u need to adjust your expectations that the 100 odd projects will all deliver and will have 100% occupancy in next 2-3 yrs

      Enough or not enough, it will not get the right kind of people to occupy those houses and the price to appreciate or stagnate accordingly.

      Comment


      • Re : NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

        Originally posted by verma29 View Post
        First of all you are comparing wrong projects with each other.

        M3M Golf Estate is a super luxury project where current resale prices are 9000 to 10000 psf and Ats Kocoon is
        luxury appartment. Both have different specifications.

        You can compare Golf Estate with Diplomatic Greens or Emrald Bay.

        FYI Ats Kocoon current resale price are 5500 to 6000 psf. After 5 years Kocoon rate will be 12,000 to 13,000 psf.

        Golf Course Extension road stars from Rs 4000 psf and current resale prices are Rs 8000 to 10000 psf.

        Once Dew will be operational rates will be equivalent to Golf Course Road in next 5 years.
        You will not see greater increment of prices around Golf Course extension road.
        Verma Sir,

        You said expect >20% CAGR on ATS Kocoon. Using 6,000 as base and applying 20% CAGR, we arrive at 14,929 in five years. Pure maths! Now you are saying 12,000 to 13,000 psf. I hope you get down to 10,000 psf in a few more posts and get at least realistic. Optimism is good but irrational exuberance is not.

        I am not doing an apples to apples comparison with ATS Kocoon and M3M Golf Estate. All I'm saying is; an above average project and a premium project will always maintain a price gap. If Kocoon reaches 15k, expect 22k-25k for Golf Estate to maintain that gap. If both are priced similar, why would anyone buy Kocoon?

        Again, I am not expecting either of the above to come true in five years unless Rupee depreciates to 90-100 or we really do very well with GDP.

        Regards,
        S
        Last edited by sourabhv; June 28 2015, 10:22 PM.

        Comment


        • Re : NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

          So, Golf Course Road would be 12-13 k after 5 years?

          Honestly, good luck!


          Originally posted by verma29 View Post
          First of all you are comparing wrong projects with each other.

          M3M Golf Estate is a super luxury project where current resale prices are 9000 to 10000 psf and Ats Kocoon is
          luxury appartment. Both have different specifications.

          You can compare Golf Estate with Diplomatic Greens or Emrald Bay.

          FYI Ats Kocoon current resale price are 5500 to 6000 psf. After 5 years Kocoon rate will be 12,000 to 13,000 psf.

          Golf Course Extension road stars from Rs 4000 psf and current resale prices are Rs 8000 to 10000 psf.

          Once Dew will be operational rates will be equivalent to Golf Course Road in next 5 years.
          You will not see greater increment of prices around Golf Course extension road.

          Comment


          • Re : NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

            We have differing opinions and let's leave it at that.



            Originally posted by verma29 View Post
            When I agreed with you on the point of social infra of Dwarka that means all the necessary requirements will be fulfilled within sub city.

            It doesnot mean cinema hall is there.
            I am pointing out since beginning where is the cinema hall & hospitals?

            Few people comment here for the sake of downgrade of Dew. You can comment anything it's a democratic country but comments with proper back up and source proofs only.

            Comment


            • Re : NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

              Originally posted by verma29 View Post
              1) Ats Kocoon (5500 -6000 )
              2) Heritage Max (5100 -5400)
              3) Diplomatic Greens (7600 - 8200)
              4) Windchants (6000 - 6800)
              5) Golf Avenue (4700 - 5100)
              6) Emrald Bay (7250 - 7400 )
              7) Aura (5200 - 6000)
              8) Heartsong (5000 - 5500 )
              Ur logic is flawed mate ..

              Gold avenue which Is at apprx 5000 should reach at 12450 for 20% CAGR ; not possible if it turns out to be true ; God save peole who did not buy on GCX.. I do not see victory velley one of the best in NCR ; reaching 15000 from 8000 it is today..

              Who will go and buy on DEW And that too golf avenue ..

              Not realistic and not on logic based ...

              so my question is still unanswered about DEW giving this much return .. I do get into this calculations because I do not beleive in RE if it is not giving CAGR less than 20%

              Comment


              • Re : NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

                Originally posted by verma29 View Post
                1) Ats Kocoon (5500 -6000 )
                2) Heritage Max (5100 -5400)
                3) Diplomatic Greens (7600 - 8200)
                4) Windchants (6000 - 6800)
                5) Golf Avenue (4700 - 5100)
                6) Emrald Bay (7250 - 7400 )
                7) Aura (5200 - 6000)
                8) Heartsong (5000 - 5500 )
                someone forgot to ADD, almost RTM :

                Lumbini Terrace Homes in Sec 109 : 5000- 5200 PSF.

                Comment


                • Re : NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

                  Originally posted by RAMRATAN74 View Post
                  someone forgot to ADD, almost RTM :

                  Lumbini Terrace Homes in Sec 109 : 5000- 5200 PSF.

                  This is the list where gentleman things one can achieve more than 20% CAGR in a span of 5 years

                  Comment


                  • Re : NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

                    Originally posted by verma29 View Post
                    1) Ats Kocoon (5500 -6000 )
                    2) Heritage Max (5100 -5400)
                    3) Diplomatic Greens (7600 - 8200)
                    4) Windchants (6000 - 6800)
                    5) Golf Avenue (4700 - 5100)
                    6) Emrald Bay (7250 - 7400 )
                    7) Aura (5200 - 6000)
                    8) Heartsong (5000 - 5500 )

                    Hahaha, Complete BULLSHIT what DEW promoters are trying hard to propagate.

                    Diplomatic green 7600-8200? TRUTH> lotta distress sales at 6900-7000 but NO BUYER.

                    Kocoon 6000? TRUTH> 5000-5200, just 1-2 transactions in MONTHS that too at what price final deal takes place only buyer & broker knows the best.

                    Heartsong people bought it at 5500, distress sales at 5k still no one is interested

                    &

                    MOST FUNNY was EMERALD BAY 7250-7400? LOOOL LOL in recent IRFS sale puri offered 20:80 scheme at 7450 which TOTALLY FLOPPED so in what world EMERALD BAY IS SELLING AT 7400?

                    Just to tell you guys, MOST of the people on this DEW THREAD are BROKERS( although I don't have any grudges against them,its their JOB but fooling people for just 1% commission NOT COOL) who in no time sends a personal message if they see anyone showing interest (don't want to name anyone though)

                    Kyu VERMA JI kuch galat bola maina? )

                    What's happening in this thread is just SPECULATION.

                    YE HO JAYEGA
                    WO HO JAYEGA
                    AB ho JAYEGA, KAL ho JAYEGA.

                    but isn't the same thing was said 5-7 years ago? & if someone can go to an extent of saying the above mentioned properties can give 20% CAGR in next 5 years LOL then GOD HELP BROKERS of DEW they surely must be in a dismal situation due to downtrend in RE.
                    Last edited by khurafati; June 29 2015, 12:18 AM.

                    Comment


                    • Re : NPR - Northern Peripheral Road, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon Updates

                      Originally posted by doobti View Post
                      This is the list where gentleman things one can achieve more than 20% CAGR in a span of 5 years
                      This might be a place where 5000 goes to 6500 = 30% jump in 2 years as DEW completes.

                      Whereas SPR similar project stays at 6500 as at present.

                      20% CAGR is impossible from property unless bought at the start of bull run and sold within 3 years.

                      12 to 14% over 15 + years is more realistic return.

                      17% if bought well.

                      20% CAGR if bought well (post end of bear phase and beginning of bull phase) AND sold well (end of 2nd bull phase after 14 years or end of 3rd bull phase after 21 years).
                      Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

                      Comment

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