I think NO!

Let us have some facts reviewed:
Total number of houses to be delivered in Noida in next 3-4 years = more than1 Lac (source Times property plus 7 Aug and other research firms).

As per WAPCOS Assessment with the presumption of 6.85 Lac (very old data, might be several years old) population and will be around 15 lac by 2021 (calculated by water consumption)
(http://www.noidaauthorityonline.com/Water-Sewerage.html)

Noida population is increasing at 4% around per year.
If current population is assumed to be 8 lack then hosing is required for 32 thousand people every year. if we take an average of 3 people per house then 1100 thousand homes are requires per year.

Now in 4 years required houses are 50000 Approx.

Demand = 50000
Supply = 100000

So you might be ending up with a home in which you don't get rent and possibly you would also not live there if nobody is living in that building.

Note : I have not considered the homes which are built personally at noida.
Read more
Reply
14 Replies
Sort by :Filter by :
  • Originally Posted by indian1234
    I think NO!

    Let us have some facts reviewed:
    Total number of houses to be delivered in Noida in next 3-4 years = more than1 Lac (source Times property plus 7 Aug and other research firms).

    As per WAPCOS Assessment with the presumption of 6.85 Lac (very old data, might be several years old) population and will be around 15 lac by 2021 (calculated by water consumption)
    (http://www.noidaauthorityonline.com/Water-Sewerage.html)

    Noida population is increasing at 4% around per year.
    If current population is assumed to be 8 lack then hosing is required for 32 thousand people every year. if we take an average of 3 people per house then 1100 thousand homes are requires per year.

    Now in 4 years required houses are 50000 Approx.

    Demand = 50000
    Supply = 100000

    So you might be ending up with a home in which you don't get rent and possibly you would also not live there if nobody is living in that building.

    Note : I have not considered the homes which are built personally at noida.


    You are partially correct first of all there are not one lakh inventry there is approxmately 3 lakh. Secondly the population of noida will shift to greater noida or noida ext. Which is having almost 2 lakh inventry. Further noida and greater noida authority havent stop selling land they probably having big plan in selling huge land in times. So invitation of few lakh. On the other side yumuna authority is planning to sell more in about 10 years or so people start migrating there. No visible increase in job avenue in noida as compare to inventry hence oversupply hangover will be continue for years which stop appreciation in property above inflation . So be aware
    CommentQuote
  • Flat cost behaviours is going to follow trends...

    Further i would like to add the value of d flat are like what old had depreciated by larger value. Wid the entry of many small branch like micromax, maxx, zen, lemon will lead to decrease in price of few big brands like , samsung and .
    Intrestingly , are only servive in high end category..

    Same is going to happen in real estate soon. Valve of property is not going to increase. Only few will servive,
    So beware homebuyer. And investor think 5 times before investing.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by indian1234
    I think NO!

    Let us have some facts reviewed:
    Total number of houses to be delivered in Noida in next 3-4 years = more than1 Lac (source Times property plus 7 Aug and other research firms).

    As per WAPCOS Assessment with the presumption of 6.85 Lac (very old data, might be several years old) population and will be around 15 lac by 2021 (calculated by water consumption)
    (http://www.noidaauthorityonline.com/Water-Sewerage.html)



    If the upward movement of property prices had anything to do with real consumption we wouldnt have seen the last boom (2005-2008) at all.

    The drivers are as follows:
    a) In Hyperinflationary times - RE beats other assets in return.
    b) Investment avenues - safer asset - you can see it, its usable to some extent. If you offer a 20% discount, someone's gonna rent it for sure.

    Now, lets talk about the proposed number of apartments-

    The expected number is 1.25 lac (so close to what you have given) - It's certainly not 3 lac and I am NOT going to include Noida extension no matter what anyone else may suggest. The bridge is not wide enough and you have seen crossings republic's state given that NH24 never got widened.

    Here's whats most likely - half of these apartments will take forever to deliver - some may not even get delivered. So, you're likely to see approximately 50000 apartments getting delivered by 2013 beginning (more than 2 years from now). So, you'd most likely not get a great price if you're going to sell it then and there. However, most folks who invest in RE, have holding capacity. If they dont have, then thats bad for them since its not going to be quick gains any longer.

    Still, I think it makes sense to purchase if you choose your builder wisely and dont overshoot on your budget.

    Regarding job creation, every company that i know of is hiring in Noida (and thats about 11 companies) and rents have gone up by 20% or more this year since we didnt have enough apartments out here. This scenario will likely change in 2013 onwards but that doesn't mean rents will go down to 50% of the current value.

    What you need to do is look at all those who can possibly rent - students, BPO workers, retail employees, every single industry that is creating jobs in Noida. Heck, the real estate employees need space - I know of people who've rented a 3 bedroom and there're 3 executives working in a small contracting firm living out here on rent so that they can be close to their work out here in sector 105 where there's plenty of construction activity going on!

    I dont see a doomsday scenario at all - I just see illiquidity.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by vaibhav_arora
    If the upward movement of property prices had anything to do with real consumption we wouldnt have seen the last boom (2005-2008) at all.

    The drivers are as follows:
    a) In Hyperinflationary times - RE beats other assets in return.
    b) Investment avenues - safer asset - you can see it, its usable to some extent. If you offer a 20% discount, someone's gonna rent it for sure.

    Now, lets talk about the proposed number of apartments-

    The expected number is 1.25 lac (so close to what you have given) - It's certainly not 3 lac and I am NOT going to include Noida extension no matter what anyone else may suggest. The bridge is not wide enough and you have seen crossings republic's state given that NH24 never got widened.

    Here's whats most likely - half of these apartments will take forever to deliver - some may not even get delivered. So, you're likely to see approximately 50000 apartments getting delivered by 2013 beginning (more than 2 years from now). So, you'd most likely not get a great price if you're going to sell it then and there. However, most folks who invest in RE, have holding capacity. If they dont have, then thats bad for them since its not going to be quick gains any longer.

    Still, I think it makes sense to purchase if you choose your builder wisely and dont overshoot on your budget.

    Regarding job creation, every company that i know of is hiring in Noida (and thats about 11 companies) and rents have gone up by 20% or more this year since we didnt have enough apartments out here. This scenario will likely change in 2013 onwards but that doesn't mean rents will go down to 50% of the current value.

    What you need to do is look at all those who can possibly rent - students, BPO workers, retail employees, every single industry that is creating jobs in Noida. Heck, the real estate employees need space - I know of people who've rented a 3 bedroom and there're 3 executives working in a small contracting firm living out here on rent so that they can be close to their work out here in sector 105 where there's plenty of construction activity going on!

    I dont see a doomsday scenario at all - I just see illiquidity.


    Dear u may be right but i dont think such a flood of inventry every being available in any part of the indian in history. First I wrote world in place of india fbut stop becoz i had not sure regarding dubia and china. But i am sure of india. Second is lavasa near pune.
    CommentQuote
  • Houses are different from other things like sabji tarkari:bab (59):.
    But nonetheless the same demand and supply rule is applicable to all. Just think the indirapuram scenario goes bad because it's too crowded now, but still the prices their if not give you huge profit then not loss as well. You can sold your home at no profit no loss or a little premium of 4-5 lakhs.

    So loss will never be there until and unless you are gaming for very short span of time say three-four years.
    Also prices in noida extension are around 40% less than in noida, so if you are buying a flat at cheaper rates you have an option of selling it a little higher rate, but if you are buying a house in say 60 lakh to 1 crore(ats) then it will be more difficult to sold till some solid reason is there to differentiate them from 40-50 lakh ones.

    In summary no gain will be there in the property in next 4-5 years, if you are buying for living there you should go but for investment one should plan for 5-6 years long investment to get any return.
    CommentQuote
  • Hi Vaibhav, Let me explain the Hiring Bonanxa:

    1. Every Company is facing high attriion (HCL 24%, ST Micro 15 %, Others IT comanaies in Noida 15 to 28%)
    2. So they are hiring to fill the attrition
    3. Total fresh hiring is in IT is only 1.5 lac this year as comapred to 4-5 lac in peak times (See NASSCOM report)
    4. HCL (the largest exporter in Noida) added only 1600 employees and only 300 in Noida.
    5. Most important people are changing job for even 20 % hike

    So there is hardly any fresh hiring. A fresher in HCL get 18000 Approx. Can he buy 30 Lac flat ? I forgot to mention most hiring at fresher level are contract based now. (No job security )

    So how you see the scenerio now ........
    CommentQuote
  • My take is that it will always make sense buying a house in NCR now or in future. Point is that RE is a life time investment and is not like stocks, bullion, commodities or Bank deposits where u can expect a change(upside/downside) in 2-3 yrs. In RE those who have kept the property with them for more than 10 years have definitely seen their many-fold increase. It is always best to buy property with a perspective of using it(staying in case of flats/houses or business in case of commercial). In NCR property will always be VFM.:)
    Now consider the scenario for a short term i.e. 2-3 yrs(i consider this as short-term in RE), if u are planning to buy property with an intention to sell in 3 yrs, u will lose, period.:bab (45):

    There is another link where i have put more comments.
    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/noida-real-estate/10352-should-i-buy-a-flat-in-sec-7578-after-2-years?t=12720
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by indian1234
    Hi Vaibhav, Let me explain the Hiring Bonanxa:

    1. Every Company is facing high attriion (HCL 24%, ST Micro 15 %, Others IT comanaies in Noida 15 to 28%)
    2. So they are hiring to fill the attrition
    3. Total fresh hiring is in IT is only 1.5 lac this year as comapred to 4-5 lac in peak times (See NASSCOM report)
    4. HCL (the largest exporter in Noida) added only 1600 employees and only 300 in Noida.
    5. Most important people are changing job for even 20 % hike

    So there is hardly any fresh hiring. A fresher in HCL get 18000 Approx. Can he buy 30 Lac flat ? I forgot to mention most hiring at fresher level are contract based now. (No job security )

    So how you see the scenerio now ........


    Hi
    My point regarding hiring above was in relation to the rental situation. IF you're working and dont own a house here, you'd have to rent (and closer the better) - no exceptions. It makes very little sense to rent cheaper in say Faridabad and commute to Noida when you could get a reasonable rent in noida at say, 10% premium rental.
    Now, regarding hiring figures, please dont discount other companies that are hiring:
    a) IBM - approximately 3000 new jobs created this year in Noida (no BPO hiring)
    b) Barclays
    c) Max New York Life
    d) TCS

    These are the larger names i can think of readily. As m. malhotra has pointed out, 3 years in RE is clearly short term. 10 years is reasonable. So, if the questions is, will there be negative returns at any point of time, I think I'm very clear - NO, there wont be. People will simply hold onto the property, manage the liquidity through other means and dispose when the time is right. An ideal option for generating some returns is to rent out the property. And noida is not running short anytime of renters - as I have explained above. If you dont find a single income tenant, maybe you'd find 4 students who can share that same apartment but have no option but to stay here given the education opportunities afforded out here compared to their hometowns.

    If the flood of apartments in the market is to be considered, I would say its a good buying opportunity even if the sectors will get crowded. However, it's not like the boom time of 05-08 that had multiple factors working for it - namely 'an unprecedented stock market rally, the first serious impact of FDI in India and a real estate boom that was new for the buyer, builder and banks alike'. This wont get repeated - but that doesnt mean its a bad investment.
    I think whats happening is you're losing out on your options availble closer to city center(s) - take an example - if sector 44 is now gone (sold out or otherwise limited) - you may have to pay the same amount 2 kms down the road.
    RE is certainly not invested by people who're at the entry level - someone making 18 k or even 30 k is unlikely to afford an apartment in Noida proper simply as there're too many people making 150k or more per month who can afford more than one apartment. Add to that the folks who work on cash basis with limited / no tax impact - people running their own businesses - looking for a second / nth property. Doctors, self employed professionals, entrepreneurs - where do you think they park their gains?
    Dalal street is not for everyone - but a home is a dream that has been fed down systematically to everyone who's middle class anywhere in the world. So till we have a situation like in the United States where close to 90% of the population is covered (i.e. there's a built up dwelling unit for every person), this boom will likely be a speck of dust consumed by our growing classes ....
    CommentQuote
  • "IBM - approximately 3000 new jobs created this year in Noida"
    from where u get this info?


    Originally Posted by vaibhav_arora
    Hi
    My point regarding hiring above was in relation to the rental situation. IF you're working and dont own a house here, you'd have to rent (and closer the better) - no exceptions. It makes very little sense to rent cheaper in say Faridabad and commute to Noida when you could get a reasonable rent in noida at say, 10% premium rental.
    Now, regarding hiring figures, please dont discount other companies that are hiring:
    a) IBM - approximately 3000 new jobs created this year in Noida (no BPO hiring)
    b) Barclays
    c) Max New York Life
    d) TCS

    These are the larger names i can think of readily. As m. malhotra has pointed out, 3 years in RE is clearly short term. 10 years is reasonable. So, if the questions is, will there be negative returns at any point of time, I think I'm very clear - NO, there wont be. People will simply hold onto the property, manage the liquidity through other means and dispose when the time is right. An ideal option for generating some returns is to rent out the property. And noida is not running short anytime of renters - as I have explained above. If you dont find a single income tenant, maybe you'd find 4 students who can share that same apartment but have no option but to stay here given the education opportunities afforded out here compared to their hometowns.

    If the flood of apartments in the market is to be considered, I would say its a good buying opportunity even if the sectors will get crowded. However, it's not like the boom time of 05-08 that had multiple factors working for it - namely 'an unprecedented stock market rally, the first serious impact of FDI in India and a real estate boom that was new for the buyer, builder and banks alike'. This wont get repeated - but that doesnt mean its a bad investment.
    I think whats happening is you're losing out on your options availble closer to city center(s) - take an example - if sector 44 is now gone (sold out or otherwise limited) - you may have to pay the same amount 2 kms down the road.
    RE is certainly not invested by people who're at the entry level - someone making 18 k or even 30 k is unlikely to afford an apartment in Noida proper simply as there're too many people making 150k or more per month who can afford more than one apartment. Add to that the folks who work on cash basis with limited / no tax impact - people running their own businesses - looking for a second / nth property. Doctors, self employed professionals, entrepreneurs - where do you think they park their gains?
    Dalal street is not for everyone - but a home is a dream that has been fed down systematically to everyone who's middle class anywhere in the world. So till we have a situation like in the United States where close to 90% of the population is covered (i.e. there's a built up dwelling unit for every person), this boom will likely be a speck of dust consumed by our growing classes ....
    CommentQuote
  • CommentQuote
  • something in support of the originator of this thread

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704388504575418603544704106.html
    CommentQuote
  • Fixed Deposit offering 12.21% return

    Someone who find risky Real estate can invest here. 5 year FD offering 12.21% return.

    Last date is Aug 21 and easiest way is through ICICIDirect.com.
    I have attached the detail.

    It just for information, I am no way attached to this company. Although I have invested in their NCD scheme.
    Attachments:
    CommentQuote
  • RE is not risky if basic parameters are adhered to.
    CommentQuote
  • RE in Noida

    Quite an interesting forum people ........ and i have my way of understanding things ....

    So according to my views .... Investment is one of necessary demons of live ... u need to always adjust with it ... whether u r investing in RE or in market or in FDs .... doing investment was is n always will be necessary.... and as fo time todayz buzz is RE like in my grandfather’s father’s time it was old, in my father’s time it was shares .... now people if you want to raise ur monetary status considerably investment in RE is necessary ... ( do be careful of street thugs ...) ....

    Also do consider this also.... Everyplace is good for its own thing like Gurgaon is good as office place ... most companies being there ... and Noida is good for residential purpose ... in three to five years of time frame ..... travelling facilities are and will improve immensely ... people are still travelling from noida to gurgaon ....

    Also see this way .... Gurgaon Gzb FBD GNoida have there charm but no one can match Noida as The residential place .... consider frequent metro stops or future metro connectivity .. wider roads ... blah blah n blah ( use ur mind also ) ..

    Do ur research be careful in what u buy and from who u buy from .... no matter what ever the availability, your property value in Noida will never be in loss ....

    Cheerios .....
    CommentQuote