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No Crash 225 Downside

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No Crash 225 Downside

Last updated: March 24 2011
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  • No Crash 225 Downside

    As per under currents and massive supply and announcement of few megatownships,reality prices are to fall by 20-25 % in NCR.

    Even by now,if the investors have earned 10-15% margins they should move out of their properties and invest in gold funds .

    End users may gain but that too marginally as higher loan rates will kill the enthusiasm.

    Pick and choose in completed projects should be the stategy.

    Let the builders bleed ,as they have already taken people for a ride by spending hugely on advertisments.

    Constructed realty as a venue for investment has lost its charm due to high mainatainance cost and recurring society fees.
    If at all you still feel to invest ,go in for land as it will,have no recurring cost to hold.
  • #2

    #2

    Re : No Crash 225 Downside

    Source of this 'precise' yet generic information ?

    Comment

    • #3

      #3

      Re : No Crash 225 Downside

      Originally posted by sam33r View Post
      Source of this 'precise' yet generic information ?
      At this stage the writing is on the wall.

      You have to be a self analyst reading economic newspapers and world events to foresee.
      Do you require or maybe you require an "expert" to foresee this.

      Oil gone above 115 per barrel.
      Inflation at its peak
      Present lot of IT guys(post 2007) I feel may not be as big a fools as previous lots who screwed up the real estate earlier by unabashed spending with unrealistic valuations.These idoits made a mess of realty rates ,country over and made life difficult or others,and then the pink slips made them a laughing stock and relief for others.
      FINALLY,lay man economics
      DEMAND vs.SUPPLY.
      Do you foresee land ending ( as in case of Mumbai) or population explosion.
      Good education to children and job opportunities for even 10th pass ,i dont think in 20 years down the line people will remain homeless.
      This generation is in transition phase .Everybody is earning and not even sure what he wants to do with his money.Buying a house to settle down in 20's age makes utterly no sense.Priorities change with time.What looks good today may not 20 years down the line.
      It is just that a BHOOKA going to a banquet ,and hogging without a thought on goodies ,and then when he is satisfied ,he realises he is down with stomach disorders.

      With no malice.

      IF YOU HAVE MONEY,dont panic,improve your quality of life,take breaks,go backpacking,help just one good poor person genuinely ,forget beggars.

      Comment

      • #4

        #4

        Re : No Crash 225 Downside

        Agree 100%.... specially the text in bold !


        Originally posted by loneranger View Post
        At this stage the writing is on the wall.

        This generation is in transition phase .Everybody is earning and not even sure what he wants to do with his money.Buying a house to settle down in 20's age makes utterly no sense.


        IF YOU HAVE MONEY,dont panic,improve your quality of life,take breaks,go backpacking,help just one good poor person genuinely ,forget beggars.

        Comment

        • #5

          #5

          Re : No Crash 225 Downside

          Housing price may fall in Delhi, Mumbai

          Housing price may fall in Delhi, Mumbai if interest rates rise - The Economic Times

          NEW DELHI: Housing prices could fall by up to 20 per cent in Mumbai and Delhi-NCR sooner than expected if RBI raises key rates in its upcoming monetary policy review, says a report by property consultant Jones Lang LaSalle .

          "An increase in lending rates is almost inevitable, considering the high need to curb inflation," JLL India Chief Executive Officer (Business) Sanjay Dutt said.

          He pointed out that any increase in policy rates by RBI would affect the sentiments of the property market and housing prices, which were expected to correct in the next 6-8 months in Delhi-NCR and Mumbai, could decline within six months.

          "RBI raising its lending rates will add to the stress already building up and hasten the inevitable correction of at least 15-20 per cent in the pricing of residential properties in the overheated central areas of these cities (Delhi-NCR and Mumbai). This correction was previously expected to happen in 6-8 months," Dutt said in a report.

          It is widely expected that the apex bank would increase the key policy rates by up to 50 basis points in its upcoming monetary policy review on January 25 to curb food inflation, which is hovering around 15 per cent.

          "Already there is a liquidity crunch and sales are down. Moreover, lot of developers are having exposure to expensive debts from the non-banking finance companies and high net worth individuals that they used for buying lands," Dutt said, justifying correction in the housing prices.

          The consultant feels that it makes sense for developers to reduce price to boost sales to improve their liquidity rather than taking the high-cost debt.

          Dutt pointed out that housing prices in certain parts of Delhi-NCR and Mumbai have crossed even the peak level of 2008. In Delhi and Mumbai, housing prices had fallen by about 25-30 per cent after global meltdown in 2008.

          While there is a high projected supply in Delhi-NCR and Mumbai, there is a distinct dearth of appropriately priced projects in the low-to-mid income segments, he added.

          Prices for mid to high-end flats in Gurgaon are currently hovering at Rs 8,000-10,000 per sq ft, while in Noida it is 3,500-5,000 a sq ft.

          Similarly, apartments are offered for Rs 25,000-30,000 per sq ft in Central Mumbai, while in sub-urban Mumbai the rates are little less and the range is Rs 9,000-16,000 for every sq ft.

          Comment

          • #6

            #6

            Re : No Crash 225 Downside

            while your philosophical ramblings are good, do you have specific examples of properties where rate fell by 22%. rates have fallen only around 20% in US crash and that created a big mess all around. I will definitely like to know where this downfall of 22% has occurred.
            Originally posted by loneranger View Post
            At this stage the writing is on the wall.

            You have to be a self analyst reading economic newspapers and world events to foresee.
            Do you require or maybe you require an "expert" to foresee this.

            Oil gone above 115 per barrel.
            Inflation at its peak
            Present lot of IT guys(post 2007) I feel may not be as big a fools as previous lots who screwed up the real estate earlier by unabashed spending with unrealistic valuations.These idoits made a mess of realty rates ,country over and made life difficult or others,and then the pink slips made them a laughing stock and relief for others.
            FINALLY,lay man economics
            DEMAND vs.SUPPLY.
            Do you foresee land ending ( as in case of Mumbai) or population explosion.
            Good education to children and job opportunities for even 10th pass ,i dont think in 20 years down the line people will remain homeless.
            This generation is in transition phase .Everybody is earning and not even sure what he wants to do with his money.Buying a house to settle down in 20's age makes utterly no sense.Priorities change with time.What looks good today may not 20 years down the line.
            It is just that a BHOOKA going to a banquet ,and hogging without a thought on goodies ,and then when he is satisfied ,he realises he is down with stomach disorders.

            With no malice.

            IF YOU HAVE MONEY,dont panic,improve your quality of life,take breaks,go backpacking,help just one good poor person genuinely ,forget beggars.

            Comment

            • #7

              #7

              Re : No Crash 225 Downside

              I agree with AlogGarg..give the examples..This is all theory...

              Comment

              • #8

                #8

                Re : No Crash 225 Downside

                Originally posted by alokgarg View Post
                while your philosophical ramblings are good, do you have specific examples of properties where rate fell by 22%. rates have fallen only around 20% in US crash and that created a big mess all around. I will definitely like to know where this downfall of 22% has occurred.
                Recently, India has been setting records.Wait for sometime and you will see anew record.I dont have to be specific as I am not an expert but signals are there.
                I am specifically talking of real estate .
                Suggest me ,say only NOIDA / GN, what will happen when 5 cities of double their size with dream infrastructure will come on Y EXPWAY.
                Will whole of India shift there? Will everybody start having 4 kids to fill these houses?
                What is happening in Dubai?Atleast the king is backing there as he has a stake.
                Chalo keep on investing,atleast wasteful and excess money will get blocked and later on genuine end users will pick and choose.

                Comment

                • #9

                  #9

                  Re : No Crash 225 Downside

                  We all love to buy 'CHEAP' ... so CRASH is a wishful thinking.

                  Crash (more than 15% decrease in average price, not the peak) happens to only those highly priced properties, either they are tagged as luxury or in an unpopular location. Are you looking for that kind of property???

                  For average properties in decent location, that I believe we all are looking for... there was never any crash... what happens in that market is SOFTENING.... with very few new launches and very few transactions.

                  The only people spot and benefit out of this kind of opportunities are those clever investors, HNI, etc with huge surplus money and risk appetite..... not you or me.

                  Distress sales happens in all kind of market....again we are not the people who dare to seize those opportunity as we have very limited money and are toooo scared of everything.

                  And for your information, not many IT Dude sold their RE investment due to pink slips...

                  Comment

                  • #10

                    #10

                    Re : No Crash 225 Downside

                    The thing is everybody can make up a plausible theory. but you need hard facts to support them, if you want to be taken seriously. go to pune forum sometimes. people there have been predicting coming crash for last 2 years. it hasn't come yet. Now I am not saying prices will keep on increasing forever, but a 20% decrease across the board from current levels will be pretty drastic and will have consequences for every sector of economy. even if a slowdown comes, prices will stagnate for a while and then start to come down. right now prices are creeping upwards everywhere. so if they stagnate for some time, then worry about coming crash.

                    regarding yamuna expressway, it is still at least 15 years away. people haven't even started living in some sectors of GNoida, forget YE. there is nothing there right now except empty lands.

                    and to your last point, if only excess and wasteful money is getting blocked right now, why will people with so much money sell in loss. they will just keep their money blocked and wait for good times.

                    IMO, it is futile for an end user to time the market, as he will neither have time nor resources to have latest information. if there is something that you like and fulfill your needs and available in price you can afford, then go for it, otherwise live on rent. this thing is applicable at all points of your life.
                    Originally posted by loneranger View Post
                    Recently, India has been setting records.Wait for sometime and you will see anew record.I dont have to be specific as I am not an expert but signals are there.
                    I am specifically talking of real estate .
                    Suggest me ,say only NOIDA / GN, what will happen when 5 cities of double their size with dream infrastructure will come on Y EXPWAY.
                    Will whole of India shift there? Will everybody start having 4 kids to fill these houses?
                    What is happening in Dubai?Atleast the king is backing there as he has a stake.
                    Chalo keep on investing,atleast wasteful and excess money will get blocked and later on genuine end users will pick and choose.

                    Comment

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