As per the report published in front page today(15-JUNE-2011) ... economictimes.com ----- REAL ESTATE SLOWDOWN has begun, brokers are running here and there due to paltry sales.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/realty-trends/brokers-hunt-for-jobs-as-sales-slump-hits-realty/articleshow/8856588.cms

Updated: 18/Jun/2011.
India's Homebuyers Gaining Upper Hand

India's Homebuyers Gaining Upper Hand - WSJ.com



NEW DELHI | BANGALORE: Yusufbhai has just opened a stationery shop in a Bangalore bylane. He has christened it 'Smart Shop', borrowing the name from the realty brokerage firm, Smart Properties, he ran from the same premises until about two months ago. Yusufbhai switched to retail after his property business hit a rough patch following a slump in home sales. About three-quarters of his revenues came from sale of apartments, the remaining from renting.

"With home sales plummeting, it doesn't make business sense anymore," he explains. It's the same story in other big cities. In Mumbai, Pranay Shah, a mid-size broker has set up a small fast food joint to make ends meet. In Nagpur, Sashinath Chinchole has quit the real estate business and set up an ice-cream parlour. Their worries are not unfounded. While the large and established players in the property business have managed to stay put even during the slump, thousands of smaller players like brokers and agents are being forced to look for other jobs.

Also hit are lakhs of people employed with such small outfits - each of which hires 5-15 people.With many brokers shutting shop or downsizing, these people are out in the market, looking for jobs in sectors such as retail, banking, insurance and call centres. The real estate industry employs about 10 lakh people across the country, the majority in the unorganised sector.

In the first quarter of 2011, home sales dropped 17% in Mumbai, 14% in Bangalore and 15% in Hyderabad. According to consultant Jones Lang La-Salle, unsold residential units in projects that are complete or are nearing completion in 6-12 months in Mumbai and Delhi-NCR are as high as 25% and 16%, respectively. In other big cities, including Bangalore, Chennai and Kolkata, the numbers range between 12% and 19%. Sales in tier-II and tier-III cities are steady, though there is some panic due to the increase in interest rates, which have climbed to about 11% from 8.25% a year ago.


"For smaller brokers, the impact of the current market factors is a lot more compared to the larger brokers," says Abdur Ravoof, president of the National Association of Realtors India . Ravindra Bramhe, chairman of the Maharashtra Property Brokers' Association, says, "Even for our members - who are fairly well-off - business is down 40% compared to 2009-10. But the smaller guys are in trouble and are setting up businesses that move on a daily basis. Many I know have asked their employees to look out."

Mrinal Chaudhary, 24, chose to work in the real estate sector in the National Capital Region after his MBA last year because it was booming. He worked with a small real estate brokerage firm, which sold apartments in Greater Noida. He made an average Rs 45,000 a month, sometimes even Rs 80,000. Then came the farmers' agitation on the Yamuna Expressway, and business disappeared. Chaudhary moved to a bank. He has vowed never to return to the sector.

For whatever business is left in the market, there are hundreds of agents in queue. For instance, there are pockets on the Noida Expressway, near large projects, where real estate brokers can be seen sitting inside small tents, under the sweltering sun, waiting for business. Those who can't afford to set up these tents can be seen on the roadside, running after every car that passes by, with brochures and flyers of projects in hand. Industry refers to them as the broker mandi. "All my friends and colleagues are now looking outside real estate before things get worse," says Chaudhary. Many have returned to the insurance industry and others have found jobs with small call centres. A few have found employment with retail stores, says Chaudhary.

Many other young sales executives still working with brokerage firms are struggling, not knowing whether they will get a salary at the end of the month, as most of these firms have switched from a fixed salary model to a revenue-based fee model for their sales staff. "This was required," says Sumit Joshi, director of Noida-based Capitol Realtors, a mid-size real estate brokerage that has downsized as well as started working on a revenue-based fee model. To tide over the slowdown in sales, his firm has also recently diversified into loans, both for real estate and business, and loan against property by tying up with multiple banks.

With opportunities opening up in other sectors, the number of resumes received by hiring services firm TeamLease Services from the real estate sector has shot up. Says Rituparna Chakraborty, co-founder and senior vice-president, TeamLease, "Employment in organised real estate is at a nascent stage. And that is why employees seek opportunities in other sectors whenever business is down." Brokers, who ran successful businesses employing people on their rolls, are turning employees themselves. Take the example of Bangalore-based Mustafa Sharif, who has been leasing and renting commercial and residential establishments for a decade. He had to shut shop a few months ago, and chanced upon a job with a local builder. He now earns Rs 35,000 a month and has given his shop to his cousin to run some business.

Uncertainty in real estate was hard to bear for N Darshan, who downed the shutters on his five-year-old brokerage in Bangalore recently. "There was a time when there were no sellers and only buyers. But things have changed. Now I have turned my real estate shop into a cyber cafe," he says. Across town, another broker Shiva Kumar has put up a photocopy machine to balance his real estate broking business. "There is no assured income in real estate anymore. The commission on selling homes too has shrunk with buyers willing to pay only half the brokerage," says Kumar.
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  • Originally Posted by ondabhai
    No offense to anyone .. Nimbu jyada nichod ne se kadwa ho jaata hain.

    Aaab yeh nehin paata ke kadwa nimbu juice karele ke juice jaisa faidamand hota hain ki nehin. .....Ya faide ke liye nimbu nichod nichod ke kadwa karke peena theek rahega ya direct karele ka juice peena..

    Mere liye to aaj Friday hain.... nehin peena mujhe kadwa nimbu ... :bab (48):


    G-bhai,
    I am not defending a veteran member because he has posted 1000+ posts, am only defending the content of his posts which are sometimes eye-opener.
    BTW-On Sat and Sun the best juice is the barley juice which is most faidamand:):)
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  • Corona mein aur nimbu...kya combi hai :)
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  • Originally Posted by ThePunjabi
    Let me give you a real example of Rohini. There is a floor (ground floor) on a 48 sq meters plot on which 4 floors (G+3) are constructed in sector-11 that has already changed hands twice since July, 2010 and its price has gone up from 33 lacs to 48 lacs now that the current owner/seller is asking for and he is not even willing to negotiate for Rs 25000. That floor is just 5 plots away from my home and I thought about buying it in July, 2010 but decided to not buy because I believed a huge crash was around the corner. Such floors yield rental income of like 9k-10k only, so the rental income is also paltry.

    On the other hand in last 1 year:

    1. The electrician who had a shop near my home has switched to full-time property dealer business.

    2. Grocery shop from where I used to milk/bread etc. every morning is now a property dealer.

    3. The tailor who used to stitch trousers is now a full-time property dealer.

    4. A car denting/painting/repair shop owner is now a property dealer.

    5. Photocopy shop owner has switched to property documentation business (registry/rent agreement/freehold and so on).

    All this has happened but the crash has not happened but I'm sure that it will happen when even the last bear standing (of the wiseman type) has been sucked into the markets by the bullish sentiments all around.

    Your doodhwala and panwala are no longer the reliable and dependable signals. :)


    Brilliant observations. Agree totally.

    However, your 48L floor by now would be worth 60L - at least asking price of 60L.

    48L would be a steal.

    It is not necessary to make every good deal that one comes across - let others make some money too! Pick and choose the ones which suit you.

    But it is vital to avoid even 1 bad deal - when the deal size is some 50% of net worth (if you are buying and selling 10 flats at a time, that is another thing!) . Safety first for small time players
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  • Hi guys,

    4 days ago i wrote a post (no. 40) with the end -

    "That's why, this time world and especially China - India are correlated to US like never before. Pray that US shall never ever enter into recession again."

    Today, we have following article in economic times about Chinese Ghost Towns -

    China's ghost towns - The Economic Times

    Crux -
    1. Dwindling demand in West means more conservationist approach/policies by there govt. to reduce/contraint outsourcing to China and India. Meaning slowdown in job creation in both countries. Remember, i'm not talking about only IT, but also about those thousands of manufacturing and export units working for western orders.
    2. Billions of dollars poured by China in ghost towns have become almost irrecoverable. Ever wondered where all this money is floating now - in the economy, and its called - INFLATION.
    3. Evergrowing -ve trade deficit of Western nations means increasing pressure on China to revalue its currency (which is actually the best way of fighting inflation and steady the dwindling economy). However, China can't do it since its people's jobs are heavily dependent on exports.
    4. Increasing belt tightening in China and India means higher interest rates, hitting rate sensitive sectors hard. And which is that sector - we all know.

    Experts say (not me) that Chinese inflation is virtually getting out of control since its actually caused by huge investments China made in its infrastructure, which is not giving desired returns. Coupled with this artificially set lower exchange rate, China is gradually reaching its bubble point.

    So US gone, EU gone, if China would also blow out, will India be able to withstand that external shock ?

    And if answer is NO, how would RE continue to move North when entire economy would/could stagnate ?

    Experts are welcome to comment...... :bab (45):
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  • Originally Posted by bhuvang
    Hi guys,

    4 days ago i wrote a post (no. 40) with the end -

    "That's why, this time world and especially China - India are correlated to US like never before. Pray that US shall never ever enter into recession again."

    Today, we have following article in economic times about Chinese Ghost Towns -

    China's ghost towns - The Economic Times

    Crux -
    1. Dwindling demand in West means more conservationist approach/policies by there govt. to reduce/contraint outsourcing to China and India. Meaning slowdown in job creation in both countries. Remember, i'm not talking about only IT, but also about those thousands of manufacturing and export units working for western orders.
    2. Billions of dollars poured by China in ghost towns have become almost irrecoverable. Ever wondered where all this money is floating now - in the economy, and its called - INFLATION.
    3. Evergrowing -ve trade deficit of Western nations means increasing pressure on China to revalue its currency (which is actually the best way of fighting inflation and steady the dwindling economy). However, China can't do it since its people's jobs are heavily dependent on exports.
    4. Increasing belt tightening in China and India means higher interest rates, hitting rate sensitive sectors hard. And which is that sector - we all know.

    Experts say (not me) that Chinese inflation is virtually getting out of control since its actually caused by huge investments China made in its infrastructure, which is not giving desired returns. Coupled with this artificially set lower exchange rate, China is gradually reaching its bubble point.

    So US gone, EU gone, if China would also blow out, will India be able to withstand that external shock ?

    And if answer is NO, how would RE continue to move North when entire economy would/could stagnate ?

    Experts are welcome to comment...... :bab (45):


    Sir, if it actually happen like in USA in the year 2008.........But because Indian economy not depend on Chiana .....that why no impact on Real Estate of India
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  • No longer "predictions". Now its "Notings"

    Originally Posted by MANOJa
    I really don't understand, where r we heading ?

    wiseman is making certain predictions, based on his knowledge & some facts/assumptions ( i think, he should stop calling them predictions & everything would be fine ) . If u agree to what he says, please add to that & if one does not agree, please counter the arguments provided or simply ignore his post/s .

    Please do not get to the level of accusations & blasting this guy on personal levels .

    As for me, i almost always find wiseman's posts interesting reading, which at most times r supported by facts & look logical .




    All you folks, do not get worked up.

    Whatever anyone says in criticism of what I post, I take no offense at all!

    After all, when I realize in the final analysis that my philosophy has made me buy as well as sell and make profit correctly much of the time, how does it matter others opinions of me?

    Cash in hand is always the final decider of the success or failure of one's philosophy!

    Of course, if a person criticises the philosophy rather than the person, with data to support, I will be the first person to acknowledge and stand corrected (and thank the critic). After all, it helps me correct my wrong position quickly and puts even more cash in my pocket!

    Nice philosophy, no?:D

    I figured out that the paying customer and your competitor are the best quality control and product strategy people for your organisation. The Customer finds defects and tells you which way the product must evolve. The competitor tells you where your weaknesses lie!:D

    Over 60% of the value of my product comes from customer ideas (which I had no idea about when I developed it).

    Criticisms are always welcome!

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by pgarg6868
    Sir, if it actually happen like in USA in the year 2008.........But because Indian economy not depend on Chiana .....that why no impact on Real Estate of India


    I sincerely hope this to be true my friend, but that's not the case. World today is interlinked in a much more complex manner than we can even think.

    China is not only the largest creditor of Western nations (like US etc.), its also that largest consumer of our metal & mining sector. Check the order book of our metal companies like Sesagoa, Hindalco etc. China's share is almost 7% in our total exports.

    If you do some research on Google, China's huge demand due to heavy investment in Infrastructre (for Beijing Olympics 2010) was one of the key drivers of metal and constuction stocks during first decade of this century. All that is now gone.

    Besides, China supplies 95% of the 17 elements known as rare earth metals. These are used in commodities from plasma TVs and energy-saving light bulbs to magnets, lasers and nuclear reactors.

    Also, its world's second largest economy now trailing only US. So we are not as immune as we may think. :bab (59):
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  • EGO boosting ke alava aur kya faida hain academic discussion ka?

    Anyway, the end of this world will be in 2012... so lene do maaza sab ko.

    Aur sab bewkoof buyers/investors ... aapke booking will not be delivered before 2012 to kis baat ke liye aap itne pareshaan ho rahe ho?

    Aur market crash bhi hua to kya karoge kharid ke? jab SAB MARENGE in 2012.

    2012 ka prediction bhi koi EXPERT ne hi kiya hain (main bilqul nehin!!)
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  • Originally Posted by ondabhai
    EGO boosting ke alava aur kya faida hain academic discussion ka?

    Anyway, the end of this world will be in 2012... so lene do maaza sab ko.

    Aur sab bewkoof buyers/investors ... aapke booking will not be delivered before 2012 to kis baat ke liye aap itne pareshaan ho rahe ho?

    Aur market crash bhi hua to kya karoge kharid ke? jab SAB MARENGE in 2012.

    2012 ka prediction bhi koi EXPERT ne hi kiya hain (main bilqul nehin!!)



    Haan wo baat to sahi hai bilkul..... :bab (45):
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  • Just got this link from another forum posted by another member -

    Indian Gold And Silver Imports Surge By Stunning 500% In May | zero hedge

    Wonder why people are not buying RE instead of Gold and Silver. :bab (38):

    Probably everybody wanna lead a royal life packed in gold and silver jewellery before our story ends in 2012.... :bab (59):
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  • Panic selling would you say???

    The discussion is interesting. I for one, am waiting for the crash. The way things are I cannot enter the market and buy a flat.
    I got an SMS yesterday from a broker offering resale flats cheap in NOIDA!
    It seems panic selling has started. Do any of our members have anything to say on this?
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  • Originally Posted by Shiro
    The discussion is interesting. I for one, am waiting for the crash. The way things are I cannot enter the market and buy a flat.
    I got an SMS yesterday from a broker offering resale flats cheap in NOIDA!
    It seems panic selling has started. Do any of our members have anything to say on this?



    sab time pass kar rahe hai hoga kya ye to kisi ko nahi pata..its future..no can predict it....correctly...but in long run things will go north ward only...its a fact....slowdown can be of 1 year 2 year...but not for ever....so buy it whenever have capacity to buy and for long term.....
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  • Originally Posted by silly_boy20
    Loooooooooooong term - sick of hearing this term - agree there is a bull run in the property markets of india -

    rule number one - buy today for your own use if you have the ability and willingness to pay

    rule number two - never buy any property they are always beyond the reach of what one wishes and what one deserves - so continue to rent and keep making new friends and foes every year

    rule number three - when in doubt follow rule number two



    Good suggestion
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  • Originally Posted by Shiro
    The discussion is interesting. I for one, am waiting for the crash. The way things are I cannot enter the market and buy a flat.
    I got an SMS yesterday from a broker offering resale flats cheap in NOIDA!
    It seems panic selling has started. Do any of our members have anything to say on this?


    Sir, You never get a flat Below Rs 3000 per sq ft under construction & Rs 3500 per sq ft RTM in any location of noida today or post span of two year or four year but it's true rate may be increase above this .

    If you see rate in the span 2006-2010 rate in noida sectors are not below +/-10% maxm the above rate it means above rates are lowest one in noida region.

    Maximum you book a loss of interest part if rate not move upward.
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  • Originally Posted by gaur_uni
    sab time pass kar rahe hai hoga kya ye to kisi ko nahi pata..its future..no can predict it....correctly...but in long run things will go north ward only...its a fact....slowdown can be of 1 year 2 year...but not for ever....so buy it whenever have capacity to buy and for long term.....



    100% correct sir but invest for minimum 10 year .
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