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ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

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ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

Last updated: June 22 2011
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  • #51

    #51

    Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

    sirjji itni jalddi cheerrrss mat karo, feeling jaag jaati hai...abhi ek din aur kaam karna hai n den friday party. Bass thoda intezaar :0

    Originally posted by ondabhai View Post
    Alokbhai, cool down

    So Alokbhai, cool down and eek eek ho jaye aapke liye aur mere liye

    Comment

    • #52

      #52

      Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

      Originally posted by chirag999 View Post
      sirjji itni jalddi cheerrrss mat karo, feeling jaag jaati hai...abhi ek din aur kaam karna hai n den friday party. Bass thoda intezaar :0
      Koi baat nehin.. abhi se planning chaloo kar do to mehfil zaroor zamegi!!

      Comment

      • #53

        #53

        Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

        hey guys,

        looks like it we entered into some really hot discussion.
        ok, i agree with you all. Frankly, who wants a boom burst in our Pyara Bharat

        Bhagwaan kare apna desh din duna raat chauguna tarakki kare...

        its only a matter of belief - being optimistic or pessimistic - two sides of the same coin.

        But yes, one think i do believe in, US and EU (since its also in as doldrums as US) contribute approx 40% - 45% of world GDP. And if they burst, everything in the world will shake. In India, industries catering to US/EU like IT, BPO, Manufacturing, Exports etc. will feel the pinch,

        But yes, on the positive side, it also means reduction or atleast stagnation in commodity (esp. oil, coal, iron) prices due to reduced western demand. GOOD FOR APNA BHARAT.

        As per www.worldwatch.org, The United States, with less than 5 % of the global population, uses about a quarter of the world’s fossil fuel resources—burning up nearly 25 % of the coal, 26 % of the oil, and 27 % of the world’s natural gas. The 12 % of world’s population that lives in North America and Western Europe accounts for 60 percent of private consumption spending, while the one-third living in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa accounts for only 3.2 percent.

        Hence, if US and EU falls, world is not going to come to end. But there would be transition from West to East, and it'll be painful. More for them, less for us.

        Baki agar kuch galat bol diya to sorry hai bhai log...


        Benjamin Graham once said: “The fact that other people agree or disagree with you makes you neither right nor wrong. You will be right if your facts and your reasoning are correct.”
        The knowledge of what to do in a Recession or Boom is more important than predicting a Recession or Boom.

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        • #54

          #54

          Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

          don't worry I am not going anywhere and I will always remain cool . but sometimes you have to respond when people just resort to posting rants in response of someone's well thought out argument. but in the end, you are right, there is no point in stretching an academic discussion. that's why I stopped responding to Nahar-par guy and will soon stop responding to world economy people.

          cheers.
          Originally posted by ondabhai View Post
          Alokbhai, cool down

          Seasonal birds comes, create noises and then disappears. We have seen many such people coming for few posts, venting their frustration and then disappear.

          It is better to ignore them and they will disappear on their own. If the discussion is not fruitful, meaningful and practical.... discussion just for academic purpose on some hypothesis... no one will be interested in reading those craps for days and you know the outcome.

          Anyone thinking my above post as crap can do the same thing on me too... just ignore.

          So Alokbhai, cool down and eek eek ho jaye aapke liye aur mere liye

          Comment

          • #55

            #55

            Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

            Originally posted by alokgarg View Post
            don't worry I am not going anywhere and I will always remain cool . but sometimes you have to respond when people just resort to posting rants in response of someone's well thought out argument. but in the end, you are right, there is no point in stretching an academic discussion. that's why I stopped responding to Nahar-par guy and will soon stop responding to world economy people.

            cheers.
            Alok sir, ondabhai sir, right say by you

            Bye Wisemen sir

            Please discuss in Indian English not in IMPORT english

            bye
            Garg

            Comment

            • #56

              #56

              Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

              Post maybe off-topic but still relevant to the thread.

              Dont take it otherwise or personally ss this is not directed to any single person, but please read the content of Wiseman's posts in Pune forum.
              I know for a fact that discussions on Pune forum are far more logical than NCR forum where people often get into emotional tiffs and only bothered about prices and discounts going up or down.
              You will realise when u see how many people got banned from Pune forum and how many from NCR.

              I understand that he gets into longish dooms-day discussions again and again but what he tells is definitely based on some facts and his deep knowledge of financials and economics must have been helpful to many people and definitely it includes me.

              I consider his posts as "heads-up" but not necessarily the deciding factor.

              Hence before discounting someone please see his contribution.
              MM

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              • #57

                #57

                Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

                Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                Garg,

                I'm not arguing with you.

                But where exactly did I talk about Apocalypse in India (as you insinuate)? If you bothered to read my posts carefully I have only talked of the effects of over-leverage especially on RE purchases.

                Second, saying our FE is only 10% of GDP only means that whenever we say something, we should make sure we know what we are talkin about. FE reserves has very little to do with GDP. I dont know how old you were in 1990 when we had only 3 weeks of FE left in reserves (we need hard currency to buy essentials like Oil, etc). We had to part with our Gold (nothing else would do) inorder to buy some more FE & that was seen as nearly catastrophic. In fact MMS's entire reputation was built upon managing that crisis & getting this country on Reforms which is why you earn the high salaries that you do today!

                In any case a significant part of our FE is hot money inflow, which can (& will) flow out if the investor is in distress OR sees no reason to park it here. You might notice that in 2008 distress pullout was a major reason to crash our Stock Market which had a Domino effect on RE as well. Its the same even now.

                Please realise that a $10-20 billion pullout will result in stock indices going down 3000 to 6000 points or more - Sensx. This alone can create a big crisis in these tense times! So you can imagine what would happen if we "lose" "only 10% of our GDP" as you put it. You will see the Sensx at 3000 again & this country revert back to 1995 in economic terms.

                Besides, this whole thng about "if you talk doomsday long enough, you will get lucky someday" is a whole lot of nonsense quite a few people use to put down some genuine arguments. They assume that if the train wreak does nt arrive as predicted, it does not exist. Sure. If the West did not do bailouts & create bubbles to relieve other bubbles exploding we all would have had this crisis back in 2003!

                First of all 2 years is very short in RE timescale. In addition it now becomes clear that the next recession / depression was merely a postponement of the 2008 one - which itself was a postponement of the 2000 one - simply by printing more money & pretending that all was well. Its called "extend & pretend".

                In a timespan of 20 years (time it takes to pay off a loan) there would be a couple of minor slumps (80s & 90s). But you can not have 3 major declines within 10 years & call it normal.

                I reiterate that the continuous call for caution over last 3 years was fully justified, had its sound basis & (as time will prove) have serious repercussions on many people who ventured into RE prematurely at excessive prices.

                Lets wait & watch.

                cheers

                So, wiseman dada - do u agree with what i said in my initial post ?
                The knowledge of what to do in a Recession or Boom is more important than predicting a Recession or Boom.

                Comment

                • #58

                  #58

                  Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

                  Originally posted by Munish Malhautra View Post
                  Dont take it otherwise or personally ss this is not directed to any single person, but please read the content of Wiseman's posts in Pune forum.
                  I know for a fact that discussions on Pune forum are far more logical than NCR forum where people often get into emotional tiffs and only bothered about prices and discounts going up or down.
                  You will realise when u see how many people got banned from Pune forum and how many from NCR.

                  I understand that he gets into longish dooms-day discussions again and again but what he tells is definitely based on some facts and his deep knowledge of financials and economics must have been helpful to many people and definitely it includes me.

                  I consider his posts as "heads-up" but not necessarily the deciding factor.

                  Hence before discounting someone please see his contribution.
                  No offense to anyone .. Nimbu jyada nichod ne se kadwa ho jaata hain.

                  Aaab yeh nehin paata ke kadwa nimbu juice karele ke juice jaisa faidamand hota hain ki nehin. .....Ya faide ke liye nimbu nichod nichod ke kadwa karke peena theek rahega ya direct karele ka juice peena..

                  Mere liye to aaj Friday hain.... nehin peena mujhe kadwa nimbu ...

                  Comment

                  • #59

                    #59

                    Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

                    Originally posted by Munish Malhautra View Post
                    Dont take it otherwise or personally ss this is not directed to any single person, but please read the content of Wiseman's posts in Pune forum.
                    I know for a fact that discussions on Pune forum are far more logical than NCR forum where people often get into emotional tiffs and only bothered about prices and discounts going up or down.
                    You will realise when u see how many people got banned from Pune forum and how many from NCR.

                    I understand that he gets into longish dooms-day discussions again and again but what he tells is definitely based on some facts and his deep knowledge of financials and economics must have been helpful to many people and definitely it includes me.

                    I consider his posts as "heads-up" but not necessarily the deciding factor.

                    Hence before discounting someone please see his contribution.
                    Are you saying agree with arguments but not with inference. What is this knowledge that draws wrong inferences. Have not read any post on Pune forum, but definitely wd like to now. offhand I can say that it is very easy to put some financial jargon from here and there and say that everything will fall down. No experts required there. Expertise is required in identifying individual short and long opportunities in any business. If you are reading some bearish macro analyst who has been proved wrong again and again by increasing property prices in the last two years, my advise is save your time.

                    Comment

                    • #60

                      #60

                      Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

                      mt, I have been reading wisemans posts for long. His analysis is always skewed to the extreme scenario, when everything crashes. However he analyses very well and has sound knowledge. YOu would do well not to ignore his views.

                      Best way to use his post is to consider his predictions as the worst case scenario and give probablity of occurrence at only 5%.

                      That way, you will wonder just a little bit about "what if Wiseman's predictions come true?"

                      That should create enough fear, so that you chose safe options and dont over-leverage yourself or make other mistakes.

                      Assuming best case scenario is the usual way we approach RE investment. Most newspapers will give you this input - the "all is well" opinion.

                      A thought towards worst case scenario makes us cautious and prevents over enthusiastic investment - like making 2 bookings assuming to sell one to pay for the other - a common trick used by many. No newspaper is going to give you Wiseman's scenario - so where will you get that input from? Wiseman writes as well as any newspaper writer too - a big plus, his writing is a delight to read.

                      I would not recommend you to time your investments using Wiseman's predictions, because he is always bearish at all times.

                      The reality is always in between - neither the broker's rosy scenario, nor Wiseman's crash and burn scenario - but something more reasonable.

                      Anyway, he is right about one thing - our "FE reserve" is entirely hot money and can flow out at any time. If FII pull out, our FE reserves will fall by a few tens of billions. Our currency is a semi float and will fall like crazy and we will be forced to raise interest rates and also increase allocation of FII monet to debt - this will arrest flight of capital at the cost of pushing us into a more extreme recession.

                      But our RBI is good at their job - they have already started increasing debt allocations to FII money to prevent all these extreme events from happening. So pull out from equity will be balanced by debt allocation to dollar.

                      Wiseman is also right about MMS and his actions in 1992. Madhu Dandavate was a great example of an incompetent finance minister who did not know his job. He managed to create a flight of capital which almost caused a default. MMS corrected his stupid mistakes and changed India for ever using that crisis as an excuse.

                      Pranab is a much more accomplished finance minister and I am sure he wil lmanage this present problems without hassles.

                      And life will go on as usual
                      Last edited June 17 2011, 04:03 PM.
                      Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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