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ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

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ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

Last updated: June 22 2011
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  • #71

    #71

    Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

    Correction name is hypothetical... just like saying All is well... Rates are increasing day by day...
    Only builder may reduce some price to sell inventory..
    If a project started with 2500 per SQ Ft.. after one yr.. its price will be 2850 per sq ft atleast..

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    • #72

      #72

      Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

      Originally posted by ashokyadav View Post
      If a project started with 2500 per SQ Ft.. after one yr.. its price will be 2850 per sq ft atleast..
      There are tens of thousands of people who invested in Faridabad, Kundli, Greater Noida assuming the same about 5-6 years back. Just ask them what their experience has been like. Most of them are sitting on huge loss.

      It is not as simple as you are making it look like.

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      • #73

        #73

        Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

        I am not saying wiseman is god .

        But, he is pretty decent/good . Agree with him or counter him with facts or ignore him .

        ...........but no point in getting personal . He is not gaining anything by propagating correction or something similar .


        Originally posted by ThePunjabi View Post
        Can't agree more with that.

        Markets tend to move between points of extreme pessimism and optimism. We all witnessed the euphoria of 2006-07 and then the doom and gloom of 2008-09. Anyone, even the dumbest among the dumb, can make money trading with the markets but it takes a true braveheart to take a position against the market.
        Last edited June 17 2011, 09:45 PM.
        Please read IREF rules | FAQ's

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        • #74

          #74

          Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

          Not true

          Originally posted by ThePunjabi View Post
          There are tens of thousands of people who invested in Faridabad, Kundli, Greater Noida assuming the same about 5-6 years back. Just ask them what their experience has been like. Most of them are sitting on huge loss.

          It is not as simple as you are making it look like.
          I dont agree with your point..

          In Kundali.. ppl booked plots from 4000 to 5000 per sq yard.. and I dont know current rate there now..

          Before investing one has to look thoroughly where one wants to invest and what are the future growth chances in that area.. Kundali area was most bought by north delhi guys... and many ppl who live in Haryana..(Sonipat Panipat etc..) so that they can move near Delhi...

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          • #75

            #75

            Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

            Originally posted by ondabhai View Post
            keep on talking about crash in equity or RE .... and guaranteed that you will be proven right at-least once in every 10 years.
            Some desi's staying in videsh have pecular negative view on India looking-ahead. These desi's can look wise filling-up many pages as if Indian economy is going to '6 yard zameen ke niche' in a short time taking RE alongwith in drain. They forget that European economies will be first to go to get underground, followed by USA - no proof needed as everyone can see what is happening in Greece/Ireland/Spain/Italy and how much bruised USA has come out from recession (if any).

            I have been hearing since last 3-4 years that China RE is going to go bust as houses are available at 50 months salaries. That prediction on China has not come correct and I don't think same will happen with Indian RE available at 20-25 months salary.
            Ranting has one good aspect- a day might just happen when that ''Bheria" would really come calling.
            Cheers.

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            • #76

              #76

              Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

              India's Homebuyers Gaining Upper Hand

              As per the report published in wall street journal.

              http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303823104576390930823892952.html

              If housing prices were a rope then home buyers and developers in India are in a tug of war, each side pulling to see who would give in first. While homebuyers are waiting for bargains on homes, developers of these new apartments or flats are refusing to lower prices.

              Rohit *****, a resident of Jaipur in the western Indian state of Rajasthan, wants to buy a three-bedroom apartment in Noida, a suburb of New Delhi. The sharp escalation in home prices over the past year has put most of the homes he likes out of his budget. Mr. *****, however, hasn't given up hope, and expects a certain amount of correction in prices, after which he plans to buy a place.

              View Full Image

              Noah Seelam/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
              Newly constructed residential apartments displayed 'for sale' offer signs in Hyderabad, September, 2009.

              It's not clear as to which side will win the war of the rope. But the odds are stacking up in favor of buyers across most Indian cities, especially over the rest of this year. Already, developers have seen a sharp slide in demand for new apartments across the country. Cities like Mumbai have a supply overhang of more than three years worth of new homes, and even the most optimistic of brokers agree that some of the high-end apartments in India's financial capital are overpriced and set for a correction. Across India, if developers halted construction today it would take two years for them to sell all the residential units they have on hand, according to Jones Lang LaSalle research data.

              View Full Image

              What makes the current climate even more difficult for developers is the sudden tightening of purse strings by buyers. Higher interest rates have made homebuyers more cautious. India's central bank on Thursday increased a key lending rate to 7.5%, it's tenth rate increase over the past 16 months.

              "The RBI's hiking of the repo rate by 25 basis points is far from good news for the real estate sector, especially in terms of housing," said Anuj Puri, chairman and country head of Jones Lang LaSalle India, a real-estate services company. "Purchasing activity had already dropped visibly during the last tranche of interest rate hikes, and we will see a further drop in buyer interest now."

              Research analysts at brokerage houses Knight Frank and Jones Lang LaSalle say that developers won't lower prices over the remaining course of this year: "Unless something unexpected happens like another scam or if the Sen tanks" prices are not expected to go down, said Anand Narayanan, national director for residential project marketing and consultancy at Knight Frank.

              View Full Image

              India's real-estate market has been through a turbulent ride these past few years. After a healthy phase in the beginning of 2008, there was a sharp downturn in the second half of 2008, in sync with the global credit crisis, which continued in 2009. At that time, the demand for houses was lower than the number of new construction projects launched. This improved by the end of 2009, and in 2010 the rate at which people were buying apartments started catching up again with supply. From January to March 2011, more than 34,000 new residential units were launched in Delhi and its adjoining suburbs.

              The latest set of numbers from the January to March quarter of this year, shows that the absorption rate or the number of houses purchased by buyers over the number of houses launched and stock of houses unsold, in India's top seven markets decreased to 17.5% from 21.4% in the comparable quarter in 2010, according to data from Jones Lang LaSalle. Cities such as Mumbai, Pune and Bangalore led the way in the drop.

              While this fall in homebuyers' appetite is not an unexpected development, it comes at a bad time for developers. India's construction and development business has taken a reputation hit following a spate of scandals and scams. Developers have a lot at stake to complete and sell their current projects.

              Take for example, Noida, the Delhi suburb that Mr. ***** wants to move to, prices on a three-bedroom "affordable" apartment go up to 8.1 million rupees ($181,208) or more.

              Previous Feature

              The Journey of a Startup in India

              "Developers need to first focus on the projects that they have already announced rather than launching new ones," said Himadri Mayank, a manager at the research division of Jones Lang LaSalle. Especially in Noida, Mr. Mayank said, developers are focused on finishing projects on hand, selling these units, and using these payments to service their debt.

              At this time, developers in Delhi and its suburbs haven't lowered prices. But discounts, market participants say, are available.

              While "in Mumbai, developers have begun negotiating on the brochure prices and are offering discounts of 100 to 200 rupees per square foot," Mr. Mayank said, who added that developers advertising these discounts in a few cases.

              In the southern city of Hyderabad, prices had been at an absolute standstill since 2008. The region had seen a number of violent clashes over the demand for the creation of a new state which was deterring homebuyers from investing in the city. Now, the state has mostly stabilized, and demand for homes has picked up. As a result, prices are expected to appreciate.

              It's difficult to predict whether a developer would lower prices or not, said Mr. Puri of Jones Lang LaSalle.

              "A lot depends on the financial ability of individual developers to hold on to their current pricing and risk losing sales till the situation improves," he said. "Developers with enough capital bases are less likely to relent on their pricing than smaller developers with an urgent need to sell their stock."
              Attached Files
              Last edited June 18 2011, 12:03 AM.

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              • #77

                #77

                Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

                Originally posted by ondabhai View Post
                No offense to anyone .. Nimbu jyada nichod ne se kadwa ho jaata hain.

                Aaab yeh nehin paata ke kadwa nimbu juice karele ke juice jaisa faidamand hota hain ki nehin. .....Ya faide ke liye nimbu nichod nichod ke kadwa karke peena theek rahega ya direct karele ka juice peena..

                Mere liye to aaj Friday hain.... nehin peena mujhe kadwa nimbu ...
                G-bhai,
                I am not defending a veteran member because he has posted 1000+ posts, am only defending the content of his posts which are sometimes eye-opener.
                BTW-On Sat and Sun the best juice is the barley juice which is most faidamand
                MM

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                • #78

                  #78

                  Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

                  Corona mein aur nimbu...kya combi hai

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                  • #79

                    #79

                    Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

                    Originally posted by ThePunjabi View Post
                    Let me give you a real example of Rohini. There is a floor (ground floor) on a 48 sq meters plot on which 4 floors (G+3) are constructed in sector-11 that has already changed hands twice since July, 2010 and its price has gone up from 33 lacs to 48 lacs now that the current owner/seller is asking for and he is not even willing to negotiate for Rs 25000. That floor is just 5 plots away from my home and I thought about buying it in July, 2010 but decided to not buy because I believed a huge crash was around the corner. Such floors yield rental income of like 9k-10k only, so the rental income is also paltry.

                    On the other hand in last 1 year:

                    1. The electrician who had a shop near my home has switched to full-time property dealer business.

                    2. Grocery shop from where I used to milk/bread etc. every morning is now a property dealer.

                    3. The tailor who used to stitch trousers is now a full-time property dealer.

                    4. A car denting/painting/repair shop owner is now a property dealer.

                    5. Photocopy shop owner has switched to property documentation business (registry/rent agreement/freehold and so on).

                    All this has happened but the crash has not happened but I'm sure that it will happen when even the last bear standing (of the wiseman type) has been sucked into the markets by the bullish sentiments all around.

                    Your doodhwala and panwala are no longer the reliable and dependable signals.
                    Brilliant observations. Agree totally.

                    However, your 48L floor by now would be worth 60L - at least asking price of 60L.

                    48L would be a steal.

                    It is not necessary to make every good deal that one comes across - let others make some money too! Pick and choose the ones which suit you.

                    But it is vital to avoid even 1 bad deal - when the deal size is some 50% of net worth (if you are buying and selling 10 flats at a time, that is another thing!) . Safety first for small time players
                    Last edited June 18 2011, 12:06 PM.
                    Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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                    • #80

                      #80

                      Re : ITS OFFICIAL - Slump in realty sales hits brokers really hard

                      Hi guys,

                      4 days ago i wrote a post (no. 40) with the end -

                      "That's why, this time world and especially China - India are correlated to US like never before. Pray that US shall never ever enter into recession again."

                      Today, we have following article in economic times about Chinese Ghost Towns -

                      China's ghost towns - The Economic Times

                      Crux -
                      1. Dwindling demand in West means more conservationist approach/policies by there govt. to reduce/contraint outsourcing to China and India. Meaning slowdown in job creation in both countries. Remember, i'm not talking about only IT, but also about those thousands of manufacturing and export units working for western orders.
                      2. Billions of dollars poured by China in ghost towns have become almost irrecoverable. Ever wondered where all this money is floating now - in the economy, and its called - INFLATION.
                      3. Evergrowing -ve trade deficit of Western nations means increasing pressure on China to revalue its currency (which is actually the best way of fighting inflation and steady the dwindling economy). However, China can't do it since its people's jobs are heavily dependent on exports.
                      4. Increasing belt tightening in China and India means higher interest rates, hitting rate sensitive sectors hard. And which is that sector - we all know.

                      Experts say (not me) that Chinese inflation is virtually getting out of control since its actually caused by huge investments China made in its infrastructure, which is not giving desired returns. Coupled with this artificially set lower exchange rate, China is gradually reaching its bubble point.

                      So US gone, EU gone, if China would also blow out, will India be able to withstand that external shock ?

                      And if answer is NO, how would RE continue to move North when entire economy would/could stagnate ?

                      Experts are welcome to comment......
                      The knowledge of what to do in a Recession or Boom is more important than predicting a Recession or Boom.

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