Real estate prices may fall 20-30% in several pockets of Delhi-NCR and Mumbai in six months.

A study by HT of the balance sheets of India's top 10 listed developers revealed a massive oversupply and a slowdown in sales: they are sitting on an estimated R31,000 crore worth of unsold properties.

Already, most developers are offering freebies amounting to 58% of the property value. And if you bargain really hard, mid-rung developers are offering discounts of 10-15% on a case-by-case basis.

“But real estate firms are not slashing prices (across the board) as they can still access capital from private equity funds or by restructuring loans,“ said a real estate analyst.

“Companies are going for high margins compared to high volumes. In the long run, this model is not sustainable,“ said Pankaj Kapoor, managing director at real estate consulting firm Liases Foras.

Prices will fall when companies begin to feel the pinch arising from slow sales.

“There is a downward pressure on prices,“ added Ambar Maheshwari, managing director of corporate finance at Jones Lang LaSalle India, a leading property consulting firm. “But it's difficult to say when prices will actually fall.“

Realtors denied a slowdown. “Developers selling properties in prime areas are seeing sales, especially in completed projects.

The sales are not happening in the outskirts and unfinished products,“ said Niranjan Hiranandani, head of the Mumbai-based Hiranandani Group, a leading real estate developer.

But industry experts said that specific exceptions apart, the oversupply is for real.

-HT


This is truth and fact: I myself experienced this... Its all a artificial hype created by Builders and Property dealers. Even any builder in Noida region is not able to make out the money from his property and they are highly dependent on dealers to sell it. I have seen number of job cut in infrastructure sector as they are not able to afford their employees.
I am 101% sure that prices in Noida or Ghaziabad region has to come down if you guys just wait and watch the drama.
Please don't take any decision in hurry and have some patience while looking for property.
Believe me, many of the articles posted in this forum are run by property dealers only, which shows the things in different directions then to reality.

Be patient and see the drama. Please don't buy the property in already shootup prices. That is my sincere advice to you.

I am expecting your comments and reviews over this.
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  • I have attached an image of a report that came in HT.

    NCR properties have a reason to keep growing even during the worst recession year starting 2008 and continuing yet.....I leave it to you guys to draw inferences.

    Pointer here is more than 65% delhities live in there own houses and per capita in delhi is hightest among all states (only behind goa which has a small poplulation compared to delhi)
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  • Dude..
    The standard of living in the country is rising... Even when petrol prices r rising, car companies are posting recordbreaking sales... Flat tv are selling like chhole bhature..
    Urbanisation ho raha hai... Chhotte chhotte towns se uthkar log ncr mein aa rahe hain for jobs, employment or even self employment..
    And plus the more properties u hold the more social status u hold in a country like india specially north india with the show-sha culture...
    So dont be so concerned.. The property rates have never fallen n will never fal..
    Elections ke baad UP realty mein boom aayega bcoz 3-4 months se demand election ke kaaran low thi..

    SIR HOLD YOUR HORSES TIGHT BCOz you might be taken for a ride( after 6 months)..
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  • Once again market crash prediction.

    Anyway, many people are predicting a market crash for long time. Look at the Pune section, some expert is crashing the market from 2008!!

    IF a market crash dream makes your day .. then let me assure you, market will crash next month. Not happy? ... what about next week?

    Still not happy? ... OK, market will crash tomorrow. Now feel happy and go back to your work!! (I am on leave today!!)
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  • Seriously, the rates are already soo high that i don't see any further scope in that.
    All are investors only, where are actual buyers? I am telling you, that day is going to come soon, when there will be buildings only with few number of people living over there.
    I don't see any worth in buying Rs 4000 - 4500 psf. Anyhow Govt will going to be change soon and all those builders who bribed Mayawati and Co. for passing these projects will be tackled differently by different party. People are not seeing it from different angle but this is actually the reality.
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  • Ohh so you are hopeful for a caangress and sapaa gathbandhan?
    Brother you say prices are so high already... Who are we to say prices r high?
    If my pocket allows prices r not high and if my pocket doesnt allow prices r high..

    Trust me... Even many delhiites are waiting for these underconstruction peoperties to bcom rtm so that they can shift... I hv 2 dda flats worth 1.5 to 2 crore where we cant shift bcoz there is no lift... Mom has knee prob..

    So ncr wil be surely in demand post their possession... You hv to wait to believe...

    Regards
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  • Originally Posted by carecary123
    Seriously, the rates are already soo high that i don't see any further scope in that.
    All are investors only, where are actual buyers? I am telling you, that day is going to come soon, when there will be buildings only with few number of people living over there.
    I don't see any worth in buying Rs 4000 - 4500 psf. Anyhow Govt will going to be change soon and all those builders who bribed Mayawati and Co. for passing these projects will be tackled differently by different party. People are not seeing it from different angle but this is actually the reality.


    Way back in 1998/99, a small 2BHK in Borivli, Mumbai used to cost 14L and appeared damn expensive for me to buy .. or I would say I was unable to gather the courage to close the deal.

    The point is, always the price looks high.

    When the price looks low is not the time when you would dare to buy something as you will be concerned about something else that time.

    The other time the price looks low is, when you want to sell.

    Anyway, that the fundamental of any business!!
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  • Sir prices in real estate might become stagnant but never fall. I believe that Noida, being the place in demand, will never see a fall. Yes sales might dip but then housing being the necessity people will start buying. We might see decrease in number of investors but end user will keep on buying as and when his purse permits.
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  • Though I am not an expert in property elated issues but from and general perspective I also think the same way that property rates may fall or stagnate in some time from now. The reason I see is very simple.

    Ten years ago there was no hype around any area. Things used to be simple and people used to sell at normal prices in the outer areas. But today, even areas 40 KM from 37 sector NOIDA is hyped. They are already overpriced. For example jaypee is selling plots 26K about 40KM from sector 37. This is already too high. No doubt investors are buying to fix there black money but for long will it continue?
    A good examle could be "New chandigarh Area". This area is nothing just big wheat fields and nothing more. But DLF has projected it as an area of future. 25% forest, cricket stadium, hockey stadium, medi city, lake and metro. Out of this hype they have raised the per yard price to 35K. This is just crazy pricing and I being the resident of that area am 100% sure that for net 10 years this area would still be in the under construction stage.

    For noida, I wonder what will happen when the lakhs of units of just NOIDA would be ready to move. NOIDA would do a greater NOIDA probably.
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  • it is purely wrong to say that its only investors are buying houses for capital appreciation... At least 6-7 people whom i know (in my relatives and friends circle) who have bought the house in Noida in different sectors is purely for end use... All the people are from outside Delhi NCR and wants to shift in Noida becuase of Jobs etc.

    Someone from Lucknow, karnal, Yamuna Nagar... Even Ghaziabad

    Many people also from nearby Villages and towns are also shifting to India for better standard of Living and Education prospects for their children.
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  • Originally Posted by ankjet
    Though I am not an expert in property elated issues but from and general perspective I also think the same way that property rates may fall or stagnate in some time from now. The reason I see is very simple.

    Ten years ago there was no hype around any area. Things used to be simple and people used to sell at normal prices in the outer areas. But today, even areas 40 KM from 37 sector NOIDA is hyped. They are already overpriced. For example jaypee is selling plots 26K about 40KM from sector 37. This is already too high. No doubt investors are buying to fix there black money but for long will it continue?
    A good examle could be "New chandigarh Area". This area is nothing just big wheat fields and nothing more. But DLF has projected it as an area of future. 25% forest, cricket stadium, hockey stadium, medi city, lake and metro. Out of this hype they have raised the per yard price to 35K. This is just crazy pricing and I being the resident of that area am 100% sure that for net 10 years this area would still be in the under construction stage.

    For noida, I wonder what will happen when the lakhs of units of just NOIDA would be ready to move. NOIDA would do a greater NOIDA probably.

    Buying under-construction is always a gamble but its cheaper than ready to move and if 5 year horizon is their it would always give decent return. Another aspect is job opportunities in the radius of property.
    Reason of greater noida not picking up is this only.
    Risk can be hedged to nearly 95% of decrease in prices by going for a ready to move property. Rest 5% can be luck too.
    Moreover peope want to turn investors from their first property which should not be only second property onwards it should happen. The markets too suffer in the long term because of such quick buck makers
    Regards
    ;)
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  • Originally Posted by siddh79
    Buying under-construction is always a gamble but its cheaper than ready to move and if 5 year horizon is their it would always give decent return. Another aspect is job opportunities in the radius of property.
    Reason of greater noida not picking up is this only.
    Risk can be hedged to nearly 95% of decrease in prices by going for a ready to move property. Rest 5% can be luck too.
    Moreover peope want to turn investors from their first property which should not be only second property onwards it should happen. The markets too suffer in the long term because of such quick buck makers
    Regards
    ;)


    To me RE is 100% luck!! ... in that matter, life is 100% luck or destiny!!
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  • Check page 26 of this report....giving good information on NCR market trends and outlookhttps://www.online.citibank.co.in/products-services/loans/CB-India-Property-Insight.pdf
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  • If RE has negligible risk and always offers above average returns, it means that all the investments should get diverted to it. People should sell their gold, break their FDs or PFs and everyone should invest in RE. Similarly, all the fund managers should stop fooling themselves in stock market and instead just invest in RE. All the companies like Reliance, Tata, Bharti etc should fold up their business and jump like RE like DFL.

    Either all the economic theories are wrong or the notion of RE as best investment always (generating sureshot supernormal profit years after years) is false.
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  • Today's property show: Why builders don't deliver flats on time
    Just check out the video. It gives startling facts like only 23% projects in NCR were completed on time. With so much delay and other such issues in NCR RE, how come investment in such projects will be considered good or even safe?


    Originally Posted by jaijai
    If RE has negligible risk and always offers above average returns, it means that all the investments should get diverted to it. People should sell their gold, break their FDs or PFs and everyone should invest in RE. Similarly, all the fund managers should stop fooling themselves in stock market and instead just invest in RE. All the companies like Reliance, Tata, Bharti etc should fold up their business and jump like RE like DFL.

    Either all the economic theories are wrong or the notion of RE as best investment always (generating sureshot supernormal profit years after years) is false.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by akash.g
    Dude..
    The standard of living in the country is rising... Even when petrol prices r rising, car companies are posting recordbreaking sales... Flat tv are selling like chhole bhature..
    Urbanisation ho raha hai... Chhotte chhotte towns se uthkar log ncr mein aa rahe hain for jobs, employment or even self employment..
    And plus the more properties u hold the more social status u hold in a country like india specially north india with the show-sha culture...
    So dont be so concerned.. The property rates have never fallen n will never fal..
    Elections ke baad UP realty mein boom aayega bcoz 3-4 months se demand election ke kaaran low thi..

    SIR HOLD YOUR HORSES TIGHT BCOz you might be taken for a ride( after 6 months)..


    Standards of living are rising because of rising loans.
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