Dear everyone , I live in South Delhi and have been searching for a 2nd house ( plot / villa / apartment ) ever since my home loan got over 3 months back . I have searched and analysed Noida Expressway , YEW , GN , NE and would like to share my conclusions and analysis with you

Conclusion No 1 . With so many stalled projects that are behind schedule / unlikely to get delivered / delivered with a pathetic construction quality/ those that have been delivered but are struggling to get COMPLETION CERTIFICATE .............it does not make sense to invest in UC Property IRRESPECTIVE of the builder and RERA

Conclusion No 2. The prices have shown a correction over the last 4 years , Forget about the price hike there has been a correction of anything between 5 to 20%...........with so many more apartments that are to be delivered in the near future and many more to be launched........these regions are highly highly unlikely to give any positive returns on INVESTMENT

Conclusion No 3. I was inclined to buy a house and shift at A SUITABLE TIME after leaving the current house like some of my friends have done...........however what i realised and saw was that their flats quality had deteriorated over time AND the same flat"s price (at which they had bought) had gone down further.

Conclusion No 4. The rentals that these houses and apartments fetch are INSIGNIFICANT ( For example the HIG Independent houses with a Price tag of 1.4 Cr behind ATS Corporate office is available at 12 k for rent ) so the old theory of purchasing a flat and funding a portion of EMI through that rent does not come into the picture.

Conclusion No 5 . Builders in their greed have launched projects at sites that have NOTHING at present . Usually when a new area is taken up for development , there is a locality / neighbourhood within a few kms that has everything ( hospitals / markets / malls / schools / jobs / employment/ Public transport ) and people are willing to travel 3 to 4 kms to save money of buying an expensive house...............this is exactly the reason why NE came up well and got occupied immediately .............BUT as far as Noida Ex Way is concerned ..............I dont see any sense in going beyond sec 143..................People will say that travelling on these expressways is easy and fast but there is practically nothing beyond sec 143 at present till you reach GN / Pari chowk. All these areas in sec 150 / 152 / YEW have been developed in ANTICIPATION of development that is ABSENT PRESENTLY in the more Proximal sectors ( Sec 143 for 150 ..........sec 150 for YEW)................Brokers and Builders have made a lot of promises regarding the development of these areas over the last 10 years BUT the reality is in front of everyone

After 3 months of hard work and a lot of visits to these regions I dropped my decision to INVEST in a 2nd HOUSE...........My advice to all my dear friends would be to analyse the same and buy (1) ONLY a RTM Property and that too (2) ONLY When you plan to shift (3) Definitely NOT for INVESTMENT.

Regards
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  • Honestly, all this has been concluded enough no. of times over several other threads. Please note that there are several dealers & hurt investors on this thread who wouldn't agree with this. If anyone wants to invest in Noida in a residential property then it better be land (with a vision of long term parking of the investment).

    An example is, land in sector 93 B, which is going to have excellent returns but the window to take would have to be 10-15 years at the least.
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  • Dear Fireheart , you are probably right that these things have been discussed in other threads that deal with individual projects ...........but there is not a SINGLE THREAD that I am aware of that deals ONLY with the usefulness or futility of a SECOND house and presents the observations and inferences like I have tried to portray.
    You are very knowledgeable and experienced as far as Real Estate is concerned and Probably therefore know all the things that I have mentioned , BUT spare a thought for those who are newbies as far as PROPERTY is concerned , have just started reading IREF , have just started dreaming about their OWN house , have not read the posts that you have read...........this thread is for them
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  • In that case few of your conclusions have to be taken with a pinch of salt. With a 1.2 Cr investment in an apartment the return is somewhere around 2.5% (25-28k rent) in sector 93. Sector 135 duplexes are not in demand when it comes to rental, hence the low prices. A 2.5% return is considered ok from an apartment by many.

    Investment in a second house would differ a whole lot on a case to case basis. Some want a steady rental income with a 5-10% guaranteed rental increase and they may decide to park their money in a second house while others may invest in a mutual fund and get a non-guaranteed income which is much higher than the rental earning.
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  • Not to mention, the definition of returns from an investment also differs for people. While the universal definition of getting "some money" by giving "a large amount of money" is mostly accepted there is a whole lot of folks who don't think in these terms. There is a reason why the mutual fund market is 80% untapped while every tom, dick & harry is sailing on the RE boat somehow or the other.
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  • It is good that you have brought up the discussion of sec 93 and the rent fetched by the apartments in THIS sector .........this pretty much means that even if the above conclusions are scrutinized by experts the ONLY CONCLUSION that can be debated upon is the one that deals with the rental part , rest 4 are pretty much OBVIOUS and UNDISPUTED.
    Even if what you are saying is correct that would mean an average rental for the huge investment that too only for this sector........ ..........soon the tenants who live in this sector will realize their available options and decide to prefer new societies in sec 137 at half the rentals...........look what has happened with Crossing republik...........the rental rates have not stagnated but fallen. With new societies / new flats waiting for tenants and eager to embrace them soon in these new sectors........we will soon see a decline in rentals / forget about rentals ............they might even struggle to find tenants.
    Every Person has a dream of owning his house..............sooner rather than later............... these tenants will decide to buy a property and if it is not RTM (and start paying EMIs) their obvious preference will be to shift into a house with lower rentals to accommodate the burden of their EMIs and with so many flats and even duplex villas available in 10 to 12 k they wont be short of choices
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  • Originally Posted by pkdch0101
    It is good that you have brought up the discussion of sec 93 and the rent fetched by the apartments in THIS sector .........this pretty much means that even if the above conclusions are scrutinized by experts the ONLY CONCLUSION that can be debated upon is the one that deals with the rental part , rest 4 are pretty much OBVIOUS and UNDISPUTED.
    Even if what you are saying is correct that would mean an average rental for the huge investment that too only for this sector........ ..........soon the tenants who live in this sector will realize their available options and decide to prefer new societies in sec 137 at half the rentals...........look what has happened with Crossing republik...........the rental rates have not stagnated but fallen. With new societies / new flats waiting for tenants and eager to embrace them soon in these new sectors........we will soon see a decline in rentals / forget about rentals ............they might even struggle to find tenants.
    Every Person has a dream of owning his house..............sooner rather than later............... these tenants will decide to buy a property and if it is not RTM (and start paying EMIs) their obvious preference will be to shift into a house with lower rentals to accommodate the burden of their EMIs and with so many flats and even duplex villas available in 10 to 12 k they wont be short of choices



    All this is a phase only:-

    Phase of bearish term

    Phase of excess supply

    Phase of sluggish Growth


    This Phase will settle down definitely.

    Fundamentals of real estate will not change.........

    when the prices were rising in 2008 to 2014 topic of discussion was something opposite...every thread contains 1000 of queries in IREF where/why to invest or not



    IMO: Any decision/Strategy must be after considering this fact, (technically or fundamentally)

    Definition of smart changes with time when we postmortem


    2005 :Smart: Who bought Equity three year before (2002) and hold or sold in at 3 to 5 time valuation from then (rest all were regrating)

    2007 : Smart : who bought Gold in 5000/10gms two year before (2005) and hold or sold in 18000/10gms (rest all were regrating)

    2011: Smart: who bought Kothi or Flat three year before (2008) and hold or sold in at 3 to 5 time valuation from then (rest all were regrating)

    2017 : Smart: Who bought Equity three year before (2014 Modi PM) and hold or sold in at 3 to 5 time valuation from then (rest all were regrating) (interestingly Real estate Company DLF/Godrej Propery has given 100% return in last six month since note-bandee)



    Question: who will be the next in this list in 2019 >2022 >2024
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    • pkdch01013 years ago
      Very well said..........expected from a veteran, BUT this time around this Bearish Phase in Real Estate will stay for a longer time than it has in the past simply because of the VISIBLE MASSIVE PILE UP of Inventories available for sale and many more to come......until these are consumed by END USERS .........this phase will continue.
  • Originally Posted by pkdch0101
    soon the tenants who live in this sector will realize their available options and decide to prefer new societies in sec 137 at half the rentals

    Sector 93 is an exception and will remain an exception in times to come. I know a tenant who's paying 37k for an apartment that's currently being rented at 25-28k. Ajnara Daffodil offers that size in 15k today, negotiable even at this price.

    ATS, Eldeco & Purvanchal are PREMIUM societies and even CXOs are renting apartments here. One of the PayTM bigshots bought an apartment very recently and gave a 15 lakh premium to the current market rate because he liked the society as well as the flat so much. Then there is a Star Sports channel bigshot who bought an apartment last year. I don't follow sports so forgetting his name but he's quite a popular guy, both on TV and in the society.

    The only change that will happen in these societies is that after maybe 5-7 years there may be 85-90% owners only.

    However, rentals have hit rock bottom in 7x sectors as well as 137 simply because you can rent an apartment at just about any price today. Some folks have rented it so that at least they can pay the maintenance out from it. One of my friends has rented his 3 BHK (1450 size) in Sethi Max Royal for 12k, he had started looking for tenants willing to pay 18k in April 2016. Net take away is somewhere around 8k only after maintenance deduction, flat bought for 74 lakhs all inclusive in March 2016.
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    • pkdch01013 years ago
      Fireheart , Again you are confused between investment and end use........all that i have said and written is only for end users ...........buying a property for INVESTMENT be it anywhere in this region is a STRICT NO NO. And don't advise me to buy anything ................i have already stated the FUTILITY of a second house. We can have endless questions , counter questions and arguements over this ...........but i think we have placed our views on this topic and THAT IS EXACTLY WHY THIS FORUM has been created and not for personal attacks . You can stick to your views and i will stick to mine ...............I hope the people reading this thread pick up the valid points , observations and DECIDE where to spend their HARD EARNED MONEY. Regards

  • 1. 80% + buyers know IREF after they booked flats.
    2 . 80% buyers are looking for their first property.
    3 . 60% buyers are in age group of 28-35 years.
    4. Nuclear families
    5 2 or 2+1 bhk in Max demand.
    6. Kuchh phale? Kuchh phasen?
    Naseeb apna apna?

    This is best time for Ist time buyers for their enduse only.

    Affordable flats of guru gram are best option s for investment , reputed builder at premium location 2+1 bhk under 30 lac., 5 years locking
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    • pkdch01013 years ago
      Yes best time for buyers ONLY FOR THEIR ENDUSE ,
  • Expressway best option s
    Klassic RTM 14Xx size 55 lac
    Seasons 168 3 bhk 45 lac.
    2 bhk 32 lac
    Duplex 135 1.1 Cr
    Today135 yamuna facing 3 bhk 55 lac RTM.

    Expressway rates are similar to noida ext. Low budget only RTM.
    Kosmos
    Klassic
    Seasons
    Today
    VFM
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  • Yes Grenoite ,your first three sentences convey exactly the same information as my 5 conclusions , another thing i want to add very strongly to the above is that buy ONLY RTM .
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    • Grenoite3 years ago
      Yes sir, its best to buy Under construction but if someone wants easy payment and more chance of appreciate then one has no choice but to buy Under construction and best to buy from good builders

      ready to move, one have to pay 100%, but in under construction easy Payment options

      Also flat and shops are different

      Sir in flats, Many good location in society and good location depend from person to person but in retail shops, everyone knows good location and they are limited in number

      I wanted to buy shop for myself, but in ready to move only option i got was not less than 17000 per sqft and that also i was not getting my best choice location, this is after months of running around

      So when i got opportunity to buy Under construction from a Reputed builder at much low rate and the best location, i buy under construction (i buy in paras one33 commercial)

      of course the pricing was most important also, from the lowest price for little inferior location shop in ready to move i was getting 25% less price

      From the ready to move, nearly as good best location in project shop i was getting discount of 35% discount (20,000 psf in ready to move and i got 12800 psf in Under construction) and that too in 50-50 Plan, means i pay 50% now and balance near possession which is 3 years away

      So Sir, from the little experience i have, i think, if one gets reputed builder and under construction and good rate, But very important at good discount rates from ready to move, then for appreciate , best choice and relax payment its better go for under construction

      But if no good discount, then it make no sense, and thats why one has to see everything
  • Dear friend no doubt in real estate theory, if supply increases price is bound to fall or remain stagnant. But this will be a temporary phenomenon, since after every few years new generation of youngsters; investors will come to bridge the gap of demand and supply. This will not only streamline price but we may see surge on price also. But this will happen once all delivered societies are majorly filled, considering the present speed of builders after Yogi and RERA effect, within two to three years time approx 70% old projects be delivered. Thereafter we may expect greater upward trend in price and rental income.
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    • caplayer20123 years ago
      15 years > No way


      FACTS ::-

      What is the population of NCR?

      Approx 5.5 Crore

      How many no of units will be delivered in next three years?

      4 lacs > 5 lacs > 8 lacs no of flats OR 16 lac >20 lacs > 32 lacs no of residents will resides in theses units

      What will be the population Growth Rate in NCR?

      8% to 10% MEANS 40 lacs new Residents will add every year

      After RERA/LAND acquisition policy etc further launching will remain very difficult

      PKDCH : Reply with your assumptions behind your comment...
  • Good question and these are not assumptions but facts. You could have googled the same and got your answer..........in particular have a look at the 2nd link.

    NEW DELHI: Levels of unsold inventory in the residential and commercial real estate segments have risen to between 18% and 40% in different cities with the maximum unsold stock lying in the Delhi NCR over the last one year, according to a new study by industry body Assocham

    Read more at:
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...campaign=cppst


    NOIDA: In what is being projected as the worst sales performances ever, the Mumbai office of UK based real estate analysts and researchers Knight Frank, in their recently released report: India Real Estate, have stated that Delhi-NCR is sitting on an inventory pile up of 2,00,398 apartment units. It predicts that it could take four years to push these unsold properties off the shelf. All sales figures were collected by Knight Frank from builders.

    Read more at:
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/c...w/53103681.cms


    Delhi-NCR had the highest unsold stock in the first quarter of 2016-2017 with as many as 2.65 lakh unsold housing units followed by Mumbai with 2.40 lakh units, says a new report. New launches under the affordable category in Gurgaon led to increased supply in the micro market which i also led to an increase in the number of unsold apartments.

    Read more at:
    http://www.hindustantimes.com/real-e...6gZ1i0VWP.html
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  • Originally Posted by pkdch0101
    Good question and these are not assumptions but facts. You could have googled the same and got your answer..........in particular have a look at the 2nd link.

    NEW DELHI: Levels of unsold inventory in the residential and commercial real estate segments have risen to between 18% and 40% in different cities with the maximum unsold stock lying in the Delhi NCR over the last one year, according to a new study by industry body Assocham

    Read more at:
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...campaign=cppst


    NOIDA: In what is being projected as the worst sales performances ever, the Mumbai office of UK based real estate analysts and researchers Knight Frank, in their recently released report: India Real Estate, have stated that Delhi-NCR is sitting on an inventory pile up of 2,00,398 apartment units. It predicts that it could take four years to push these unsold properties off the shelf. All sales figures were collected by Knight Frank from builders.

    Read more at:
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/c...w/53103681.cms


    Delhi-NCR had the highest unsold stock in the first quarter of 2016-2017 with as many as 2.65 lakh unsold housing units followed by Mumbai with 2.40 lakh units, says a new report. New launches under the affordable category in Gurgaon led to increased supply in the micro market which i also led to an increase in the number of unsold apartments.

    Read more at:
    http://www.hindustantimes.com/real-e...6gZ1i0VWP.html


    Read carefully - 15 Year is no where?


    Over 2 lakh apartments unsold in Delhi-NCR; may take 4 years to be picked up: Knight Frank



    Delhi-NCR has highest unsold housing inventory: Assocham Delhi-NCR stuck with 2.64 lakh unsold homes



    Are you PKGANDHI??
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    • pkdch01013 years ago
      I fail to understand why people launch personal attacks if and when they do not agree with something ..............a mentality that needs to change . Please read the post carefully .......these unsold inventories were there in 2016 and were enough for Delhi NCR till 2020 ...........BUT have there not been any launches after that , have builders not announced more projects in 2016 / 2017 , Will builders not announce any more projects from 2nd June 2017 ............Unfortunately People have started replying for the sake of replying WITHOUT thinking...........you can agree with me or disagree with me but you asked me for FACTS and i gave them to you.
  • Originally Posted by pkdch0101
    Good question and these are not assumptions but facts. You could have googled the same and got your answer..........in particular have a look at the 2nd link.

    NEW DELHI: Levels of unsold inventory in the residential and commercial real estate segments have risen to between 18% and 40% in different cities with the maximum unsold stock lying in the Delhi NCR over the last one year, according to a new study by industry body Assocham

    Read more at:
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...campaign=cppst


    NOIDA: In what is being projected as the worst sales performances ever, the Mumbai office of UK based real estate analysts and researchers Knight Frank, in their recently released report: India Real Estate, have stated that Delhi-NCR is sitting on an inventory pile up of 2,00,398 apartment units. It predicts that it could take four years to push these unsold properties off the shelf. All sales figures were collected by Knight Frank from builders.

    Read more at:
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/c...w/53103681.cms


    Delhi-NCR had the highest unsold stock in the first quarter of 2016-2017 with as many as 2.65 lakh unsold housing units followed by Mumbai with 2.40 lakh units, says a new report. New launches under the affordable category in Gurgaon led to increased supply in the micro market which i also led to an increase in the number of unsold apartments.

    Read more at:
    http://www.hindustantimes.com/real-e...6gZ1i0VWP.html


    15 years > No way


    FACTS ::-

    What is the population of NCR?

    Approx 5.5 Crore

    How many no of units will be delivered in next three years?

    4 lacs > 5 lacs > 8 lacs no of flats OR 16 lac >20 lacs > 32 lacs no of residents will resides in theses units

    What will be the population Growth Rate in NCR?

    8% to 10% MEANS 40 lacs new Residents will add every year

    After RERA/LAND acquisition policy etc further launching will remain very difficult
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  • I fail to understand why people launch personal attacks if and when they do not agree with something ..............a mentality that needs to change . Please read the post carefully .......these unsold inventories were there in 2016 and were enough for Delhi NCR till 2020 ...........BUT have there not been any launches after that , have builders not announced more projects in 2016 / 2017 , Will builders not announce any more projects from 2nd June 2017 ............Unfortunately People have started replying for the sake of replying WITHOUT thinking...........you can agree with me or disagree with me but you asked me for FACTS and i gave them to you
    I have written this thread for End Users ............and I request everyone to show their dissent even if they have one in a manner consistent with Politeness and humility
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