Dear friends,


Media has given full fledged verdict that SP will form the next government in UP.

But according to my astrological observations,

1. Mayawati will emerge leading CM candidate in this election
2. Mulayam Singh Yadav will having fluctuating fortunes in this elections. In first week of January, I had predicted that Mulayam Singh will become irrelevant in this election and he has already become even before results are out. I don't have Akhilesh Yadav horoscope thus he is my X factor but still SP is under Mulayam. Thus, SP will not perform up to the level exit polls are predicting. It will most likely challenge BSP to no 1 position.
3. BJP: I was quite certain that BJP will consolidate smartly and they are doing it. Media has taken U-turn confirms this fact.
4. Congress: Congress will do very badly.

My Seat Predictions
BSP: 120 -140+
SP : 90 -140 (large band due to x-factor of Akhilesh Yadav)
BJP : 80 -110
Congress : 10 - 35 (without RLD)

Post Election Scenario
1. Mayawati will be strong contender of CM post and she is likely to get unexpected support this time around.
2. Mualayam Singh will not be CM of UP
3. BJP will be coalition partner in the new government not in UP but in most of the states.
4. Congress will not have any say in the post poll scenario.

Who votes whom ?
1. Dalits and Most backward class for Mayawati. She would have got very good % of Muslim vote too
2. Upper cast, OBC and Women got divided in between SP & BJP
3. Youth will not influence the election result contrary to Media predictions
4. Thakur votes will play very important role in influencing results

Influential votes:
1. Election results will give clear indication that corruption, democratic rights, black money, Lokpal and development are bigger agendas they voted for.

Future in next 2-3 years:

1. Mayawati will emerge as strong Dalit leader after this election. Her stock will explode at pan India level in next 2 years. But her corruption will give her bad reputation and they will destroy her partners.
2. BJP fortunes will revive and wait for strong leadership emerging from BJP
3. Akhilesh is my x-factor and my gut feeling is that BJP may try to form govt. with Akhilesh Yadav as CM.
4. Congress stock will fall sharply in crisis mode
5. Anti-corruption, black money and other development oriented activist's stock will revive

Conclusion:

Mayawati+Others vs Akhilesh+BJP equation looks likely possibility but Mayawati will beat this combo hands down in long run.

Poll:

I am adding a poll to see what IREF member think of UP election results.

My old predictions before election started:

I am still backing my each and every word. I want it to critically tally with actual happenings after March 6 with your help.

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ahmedabad-real-estate/237-mall-mania-in-ahmedabad-is-there-room-for-all?p=266#post237
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  • If akhilesh joins bjp then il vote for akhilesh as pm...
    But akhilesh in samajwadi is useless!!
    Yaar uss party ki foundation hi kharab hai...
    Although akhilesh has changed a lot for sp(bahubali dp yadav n amar singh shown the door)... After his wife dimple(beautiful) yadav lost to raj babbar!!

    Ground reality is yeh sab cong ke tattu hai...
    Akhilesh shud break up from cong n make his own identity at national level.. Till he does so...
    My vote goes to bjp + anyone!!
    Vote for kranti, Badlaav, sabhyataa and nirmaan!!!
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  • Beni prasad has told in star news interview that Cong can make alliance with BSP.

    "Picture abhi baaki hain"

    Originally Posted by harpreetsg_delhi
    उत्तर प्रदेश में बसपा-कांग्रेस के गठजोड़ की आहट
    लखनऊ/इन्दुशेखर पंचोली।
    Story Update : Sunday, March 04, 2012 2:11 AM

    यूपी महासमर का आखिरी वोट पड़ते ही एनआरएचएम घोटाले के ‘खलनायक’ बाबूसिंह कुशवाहा की गिरफ्तारी महज जांच-प्रक्रिया का हिस्सा है। सीबीआई और कांग्रेस का यह तर्क किसी समझदार के गले नहीं उतर सकता। असल में, कांग्रेस के सत्ता-संग्राम का यह नया दांव है। सीधे-सीधे कहें तो मायावती केलिए यह एक बड़ा संकेत है, उसे खुश करने की कोशिश भी और नतीजों का गणित गड़बड़ा जाने पर डराने का हथियार भी।

    बसपा के लिए साथ आने का परोक्ष न्योता
    गिरफ्तारी के निहितार्थ इसी तरह पढ़े जाने चाहिए। और इस तरह भी कि पूरे चुनाव अभियान में कांग्रेस ने जिस तरह भांति-भांति के दांव चले, उसके नेता आरक्षण का झुनझुना दिखाकर मुसलमानों को भरमाते रहे, चुनाव आयोग तक को गरियाते रहे, दो तिहाई बहुमत के दावों के बीच राष्ट्रपति शासन का भय दिखाते रहे, कुशवाहा की गिरफ्तारी उसी कड़ी का एक हिस्सा है और वैसा ही दांव है। बसपा के लिए साथ आने का परोक्ष न्योता भी, लेकिन इस चेतावनी के साथ कि उनका मोहरा उन्हीं के खिलाफ चल सकता है।

    अधीरता में कुछ भी मुमकिन
    देश की सियासत के सबसे महत्वपूर्ण प्रदेश का ताज हथियाने केलिए कांग्रेस की अधीरता किसी से छिपी नहीं है। वह हर तरह का विकल्प खुला रखना चाहती है, दो नावों में पांव रखकर चलने से भी उसे परहेज नहीं है। सपा को अंगूठा दिखाकर कांग्रेस का दामन थामने वाले दल-बदलू समाजवादियों का ताकतवर तबका किसी कीमत पर मुलायम सिंह यादव के साथ दोस्ती नहीं होने देना चाहता। उन्हें मायावती का साथ लेने-देने में कोई परेशानी नहीं दिखती। कांग्रेस की ओर से सीएम पद के स्वयंभू दावेदार बेनी प्रसाद वर्मा इसकी सार्वजनिक पहल कर चुके हैं। अपने पुराने साथी मुलायम को आड़े हाथों लेने का वे कोई मौका नहीं छोड़ते, लेकिन उन्होंने हाल में चौंकाया मायावती की तारीफ करके। साथ ही, ऑफ-द-रिकॉर्ड यह भी कहा कि चुनाव बाद सोनिया गांधी मायावती को भी चाय पर बुला सकती हैं।

    लालच कम नहीं....
    याद कीजिए, शुरुआत में कांग्रेस नेतृत्व को समाजवादी पार्टी के साथ एक पाले में खड़े होने में कोई दिक्कत नहीं थी। सपा और उसकेसुप्रीमो को लेकर राहुल की भाषा संयत थी, बांहें भी नहीं चढ़तीं थीं। लेकिन, जब मैदानी खबरों से खुलासा हुआ कि इससे पार्टी को फायदा नहीं मिल रहा, तो सुर ही नहीं, तेवर भी बदल गए। माया-राज और पैसे खाने वाले हाथियों केसाथ मुलायम और उनका भूतकालीन गुंडाराज और पंक्चर साइकिल केजुमले भी भाषण में शुमार हो गए। मानो बेनी की जुबान ही पूरी कांग्रेस पर शाया हो गई। ऐसे में चुनाव केबाद बेनी प्रसाद ही नहीं रशीद मसूद, रीता बहुगुणा से लेकर राज बब्बर, किस मुंह से अपनी पुरानी पार्टी केमुखिया केसाथ चलेंगे? वहीं, मायावती को साथ लेने पर उनकेपीछे खड़ी दलित वोटों की चट्टान, कांग्रेस को ललचाने के लिए पर्याप्त है।

    खुशी तो उनकेलिए भी
    कुशवाहा की गिरफ्तारी की खुशी महज नसीमुद्दीन सिद्दीकी को ही नहीं मायावती को भी हुई होगी। भाजपा की वकालत कुशवाहा ने भले धीमी रफ्तार से की हो, आखिर तक वे सीधे मायावती पर हमलावर हो गए थे। पहले दरबारियों से खतरा बता रहे थे, बाद में सीधे मायावती पर निशाना था। ऐसे में, एक्जिट पोल केनतीजों की गर्मी से असहज हुईं मायावती को थोड़ी तो ठंडक पहुंची ही होगी। सियासत केजानकार मान रहे हैं कि मुलायम की सरकार बनने से रोकने केलिए मायावती भरसक कोशिश करेंगी, उसमें कांग्रेस का साथ मिल जाएगा तो उसकी ताकत निश्चित ही बढ़ेगी।

    ...तो असली खिलाड़ी पर मेहरबानी क्यों
    जांच-प्रक्रिया के तहत ही गिरफ्तारी करनी होती, तो एफआईआर दर्ज होने केसाथ ही हो सकती थी। सीबीआई केसूत्र मानते हैं कि तब से आज तक हालात या दस्तावेजों में ऐसा कुछ नहीं बदला, सुबूत भी उतने ही हैं। कुशवाहा को जब पहली बार पूछताछ केलिए दिल्ली बुलाया था, तब वे इसी मानसिकता केसाथ गए थे कि उनकी गिरफ्तारी तय है। लेकिन, तब उन्हें पूरे प्रदेश में घूम-घूमकर बसपा के खिलाफ माहौल बनाने केलिए वैसे ही बख्श दिया, जैसे अमरसिंह को इलाज के नाम सलाखों से बाहर निकाल उनकी पुरानी पार्टी पर हमलावर होने का मौका दिया गया। सवाल यह भी है कि एनआरएचएम घोटाले के असली खिलाड़ी आईएएस प्रदीप शुक्ला अब तक बाहर कैसे हैं?

    6 तक करिए इंतजार
    असल में, कांग्रेस और बसपा केस्वार्थ साझा हो रहे हैं। जो कांग्रेसी मुलायम को अगला रेलमंत्री बता रहे थे, उनकी जुबान भी अब बदल रही है। लेकिन, कांग्रेस का कुशवाहा-दांव, तुरुप बन पाएगा...यह छह मार्च को ही तय होगा।

    Amar Ujala
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  • Originally Posted by harpreetsg_delhi
    Beni prasad has told in star news interview that Cong can make alliance with BSP.

    "Picture abhi baaki hain"


    In also see unexpected support for Mayawati this time around. I think they would be smaller parties prominent being Peace Party etc.

    Instead Congress fishing in muddy water, they should focus on UPA-II as its at brink of collapsing..
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  • BJP likely to get a pleasant shock in UP

    The Bharatiya Janata Party is all set to emerge as the proverbial dark horse in the just concluded Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. For many in the BJP, the sudden surge in the fortunes of the party, which had remained content with just 51 seats in the 2007 Assembly elections, is a pleasant shock, while for some it is a retribution of sorts.

    The factors that have led to this surge are different in different parts of the state, but together they have given the party leaders a reason for celebration.

    In the east, known as Purvanchal, the BJP seems to have benefited from the presence of the Peace Party, which polarised Muslim votes to an extent, leading to the counter polarisation of votes in the BJP's favour.

    "The Peace Party polarised 10,000-15,000 Muslim votes (in different seats) in its favour, which then led to a reaction among Hindus, thus benefiting the BJP. Besides, the Muslim vote in Purvanchal has got split among the Peace Party, Samajwadi Party, the Congress and even the BSP, allowing the BJP an easy win in many seats," said Dr Harsh Shahi, a political analyst.

    Interestingly, the BJP, this time, did not go overboard on the Hindutva factor and even the normally abrasive Mahant Yogi Adityanath did not spew communal venom during the elections. The BJP gained without even making an effort.

    In Bundelkhand, the party has gained mainly because of a man everyone loved to hate, Babu Singh Kushwaha. He silently campaigned for the BJP in Bundelkhand and his meetings were as large — if not larger — as Mayawati's in some places. The former BSP minister successfully polarised the OBC votes in favour of the BJP and his efforts are sure to ensure greater returns for the party in the region.

    In Central Uttar Pradesh, it was two Union ministers, Salman Khurshid and Beni Prasad Varma, who helped the BJP regain lost ground when they pushed the Muslim reservation issue beyond a point and drove the OBCs away from the Congress.

    "When the two ministers said that they were ready to be hanged by the Election Commission for violation of the model code of conduct, the OBCs started saying that the Congress needed the Muslims more than it needed the OBCs. The wave turned against us in just two days," said a local Congress leader from Farukkhabad.

    In Western Uttar Pradesh, it is the Jats who are helping the BJP gain ground. The Jat community is upset with the Congress for not including them in the Central OBC list. The Akhil Bharatiya Jat Aarakshan Samiti has given a call to boycott the Congress. The alliance between the Congress and Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal has not gone down well with the community. Since the Samajwadi Party is on a weak wicket in Western UP, it is the BJP which is bound to get the advantage of this Jat resentment with the Congress.

    "We agree it is a multiplicity of factors that are helping us make major gains in UP. There is no denying the fact that the party and its leaders have not made any efforts for this. If we play our cards well in the post-poll scenario and refuse a tie-up with the Bahujan Samaj Party, we can hope for bigger gains in the Lok Sabha elections that could be held earlier than scheduled," said a senior BJP leader while campaigning in the state.
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  • Very informative post.. Thanks rishi ji...
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  • manglesh bhai
    agar punjab ya uttarakhand mein se ek bhi state bjp jeet jata hain to aap ko maan jaayenge.
    aur mujhe apni kundli aapko bhejni padegi.
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  • Originally Posted by looterbuilder
    manglesh bhai
    agar punjab ya uttarakhand mein se ek bhi state bjp jeet jata hain to aap ko maan jaayenge.
    aur mujhe apni kundli aapko bhejni padegi.


    Bhai, BJP is coming everywhere with coalition partners (alone unlikely) but in UP I think it would be Mayawati again with unexpected support.
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  • Originally Posted by rrmanglesh
    Bhai, BJP is coming everywhere with coalition partners (alone unlikely) but in UP I think it would be Mayawati again with unexpected support.

    Brother

    Maan gaye aapke Confidence ko.
    lets see on 6th How correct your prediction is...
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  • Yeah he is undettered by any exit polls or opinions.. I just pray your predictions come true...
    These elections shud be a nightmare for Gandhi & Sons (hindu undivided family business)
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  • In this thread poll even I voted for SP+BJP which my heart say that next govt should be Akhilesh as CM with BJP support as he seems to be pro-development and forward looking young leader with clean image and clear thinking !!

    But my "yakku" mind says, the end result would be BSP+Others+RLD with outside support from Congress..
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  • SAD+BJP in punjab for sure... Its not prediction but ground level reality.....As far as i know SAD were completely able to break Ram Rahim vote bank which use to help congrss....... Ram rahim is havng solid vote bank and can easily turn atlest 40 seats in any one's favor....Lets see what would be on 6th March.... :)
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  • 6th march is not far. sab milk kaa milk and water kaa water ho jaaega..

    by the way, yeh sab astrology chhodo and meri practical advice lelo..

    Bike and car kaa tankful karaa lo. Oil has increased by 25% since last hike/reduction.
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  • Why have people become fans of Akhilesh? While congress is regularly thrashed for dynastic rule, doesn't SP also deserve the the same criticism?
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  • Originally Posted by rrmanglesh
    In this thread poll even I voted for SP+BJP which my heart say that next govt should be Akhilesh as CM with BJP support as he seems to be pro-development and forward looking young leader with clean image and clear thinking !!

    But my "yakku" mind says, the end result would be BSP+Others+RLD with outside support from Congress..

    Ye aap diplomatic kab se ho gaye? mind aur heart ke alag alag predictions likh rahe ho. matlab dono case me bologe ki meri prediction sahi ho gai?
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  • Originally Posted by fatichar
    Ye aap diplomatic kab se ho gaye? mind aur heart ke alag alag predictions likh rahe ho. matlab dono case me bologe ki meri prediction sahi ho gai?


    :) nahi bhai, my heart says is my view... not any prediction ... as I said in my first post that my gut feeling is BJP & SP may try to form the govt. but Mayawati will beat this combo hands down .. so I don't change my stance without notice :)
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