Dear friends,


Media has given full fledged verdict that SP will form the next government in UP.

But according to my astrological observations,

1. Mayawati will emerge leading CM candidate in this election
2. Mulayam Singh Yadav will having fluctuating fortunes in this elections. In first week of January, I had predicted that Mulayam Singh will become irrelevant in this election and he has already become even before results are out. I don't have Akhilesh Yadav horoscope thus he is my X factor but still SP is under Mulayam. Thus, SP will not perform up to the level exit polls are predicting. It will most likely challenge BSP to no 1 position.
3. BJP: I was quite certain that BJP will consolidate smartly and they are doing it. Media has taken U-turn confirms this fact.
4. Congress: Congress will do very badly.

My Seat Predictions
BSP: 120 -140+
SP : 90 -140 (large band due to x-factor of Akhilesh Yadav)
BJP : 80 -110
Congress : 10 - 35 (without RLD)

Post Election Scenario
1. Mayawati will be strong contender of CM post and she is likely to get unexpected support this time around.
2. Mualayam Singh will not be CM of UP
3. BJP will be coalition partner in the new government not in UP but in most of the states.
4. Congress will not have any say in the post poll scenario.

Who votes whom ?
1. Dalits and Most backward class for Mayawati. She would have got very good % of Muslim vote too
2. Upper cast, OBC and Women got divided in between SP & BJP
3. Youth will not influence the election result contrary to Media predictions
4. Thakur votes will play very important role in influencing results

Influential votes:
1. Election results will give clear indication that corruption, democratic rights, black money, Lokpal and development are bigger agendas they voted for.

Future in next 2-3 years:

1. Mayawati will emerge as strong Dalit leader after this election. Her stock will explode at pan India level in next 2 years. But her corruption will give her bad reputation and they will destroy her partners.
2. BJP fortunes will revive and wait for strong leadership emerging from BJP
3. Akhilesh is my x-factor and my gut feeling is that BJP may try to form govt. with Akhilesh Yadav as CM.
4. Congress stock will fall sharply in crisis mode
5. Anti-corruption, black money and other development oriented activist's stock will revive

Conclusion:

Mayawati+Others vs Akhilesh+BJP equation looks likely possibility but Mayawati will beat this combo hands down in long run.

Poll:

I am adding a poll to see what IREF member think of UP election results.

My old predictions before election started:

I am still backing my each and every word. I want it to critically tally with actual happenings after March 6 with your help.

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ahmedabad-real-estate/237-mall-mania-in-ahmedabad-is-there-room-for-all?p=266#post237
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  • @Commener

    People have called me broker, dalla, etc
    But can they PROVE that I have earned or tried to earn commission on THIS forum ??
    NO....they could never do that..and will never be able to...100% Guarantee
    They dont have One Post..One PM...One message..OPEN CHALLENGE...where I have tried to give my contact details or references..which is MOST important for any broker...NOT EVEN ONE in so many months

    On the Other hand
    I have called them Newbie, Inexperienced, and basically Down right Dumb
    And can I PROVE That ??....Yes at least on 100s of occasions or even more
    with facts, knowledge and ground realities

    Who gained from it: People who were reading understood...whats right and whats bullshit !!!!!

    PS: I have a Elder cousin brother who is very fond of pulling my ears...and now you are doing the same

    I respect your thoughts and kind concern

    Will keep that in mind....

    Maaf kar do bhai :)
    CommentQuote
  • EVM assessment:

    Why EVM's are not secure:
    First some +ves.

    The hardware and firmware is relatively simple and not on any network. Simplicity is good since it reduces the surface area available to an attacker.

    But, listing 2 most promising attacks (there are several other tougher ones)...

    1. The EVM firmware is integrated into the CPU by a Japanese manufacturer (Renesas). There is no mechanism to verify firmware integrity when it is being read so all you need is compromise at the Japanese employee end.

    2. If 2-3 minutes of physical access to the boxes is available in a secluded area, the EEPROM chips that record votes can be written to using an external device designed to intercept (I2C) communication - which is not encrypted - between these chips and the CPU.

    This method (#2) was tried successfully in a good quality and well publicized study at http://indiaevm.org/evm_tr2010-jul29.pdf


    Why this doesn't matter as much as people think:

    The Election Commission has designed a very good process around the EVM's.

    This process has multiple safeguards (polling and counting station verification, 5 vote per minute limits, etc.) and that ensures poll integrity.

    -v

    PS: Tried to keep it as simple as possible. Please excuse me for use of some jargon.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by varshar
    EVM assessment:

    Why EVM's are not secure:
    First some +ves.

    The hardware and firmware is relatively simple and not on any network. Simplicity is good since it reduces the surface area available to an attacker.

    But, listing 2 most promising attacks (there are several other tougher ones)...

    1. The EVM firmware is integrated into the CPU by a Japanese manufacturer (Renesas). There is no mechanism to verify firmware integrity when it is being read so all you need is compromise at the Japanese employee end.

    2. If 2-3 minutes of physical access to the boxes is available in a secluded area, the EEPROM chips that record votes can be written to using external device designed to intercept (I2C) communications between these chips and the CPU.

    This method (#2) was tried successfully in a good quality and well publicized study at http://indiaevm.org/evm_tr2010-jul29.pdf


    Why this doesn't matter as much as people think:

    The Election Commission has designed a very good process around the EVM's.

    This process has multiple safeguards (polling and counting station verification, 5 vote per minute limits, etc.) and that ensures poll integrity.

    -v

    PS: Tried to keep it as simple as possible. Please excuse me for use of some jargon.


    I think Dr. Subramanium Swamy proposed a very good suggestion that there should be a receipt on paper to whom voter votes and that receipt should be put to ballot boxes. If any conflict than paper votes should be counted.
    CommentQuote
  • Astrologer is also a divided community !!

    Lucknow, March 5: For once, political pundits and astrologers seem to be mostly on the same side in Uttar Pradesh. Hours before the millions of votes cast in the state are counted Tuesday, leading astrologers were singing the tune of the exit polls.

    Their forecast: A clean edge for the Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mulayam Singh Yadav and a downslide for both the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress.

    K.A. Dubey 'Padmesh', a well known Kanpur-based astrologer, told IANS that the coronation of Mualayam Singh in Lucknow was a foregone conclusion.

    "The SP will emerge as the biggest party (in the assembly) as its horoscope has Saturn and Mars in its centre. Both planets are retrograde. They will specially boost the prospects of the Yadav leader."

    He added that the BSP would be inflicted a body blow as it had 'Mithun Lagna' in its horoscope.

    Padmesh said a 'Khadashtak yoga' was in place and it suggested a change in the seat of power in Lucknow.

    The Congress with a 'Dhanu lagna' at the epicentre of its horoscope would be on a downward trend in Uttar Pradesh although it would better its tally in "places close to Delhi".

    The Congress won 22 assembly seats in 2007 and 22 Lok Sabha seats two years later.

    New Delhi-based Ajai Bhambi echoed Padmesh and predicted a waterloo for the BSP.

    "Stars of Mayawati are on the decline," Bhambi told IANS on telephone, and added that even Rahul Gandhi "will do badly astrologically".

    The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), he predicted, would do better compared to 2007 but it would not be in a position to form a government.

    Rakesh Tripathi, an astrologer from Allahabad, said the time of the election declaration -- 23.12.2011 (6.59 p.m.) -- had ensured the stars of the ruling BSP were on a downturn.

    "SP will be the biggest gainer," he said, predicting 134-145 seats for it, 116-128 for BSP, 49-61 for BJP and 53-58 for the Congress.

    Tripathi also warned of President's rule in the state, the country's most populous and one which has given India most of its prime ministers.

    Celebrated astrologer Bejan Daruwalla, however, has a radically different view on the Uttar Pradesh outcome.

    Talking to IANS on telephone from Mumbai, he insisted that Mayawati would return to power.

    "I am an astrologer, not a politician and hence would stick to what I have said earlier. Mayawati's return in Uttar Pradesh is imminent.

    "Nobody can move a Himalaya mountain, and she is one Himalaya," he said in his imitable style.

    "I am no god but by the grace of Ganesh, trust me. Maya would be the chief minister again, 175 percent for sure."
    CommentQuote
  • "Slap on the WRIST" for you Mr. Zohaib :)

    Originally Posted by zohaib2012
    @Commener

    People have called me broker, dalla, etc
    But can they PROVE that I have earned or tried to earn commission on THIS forum ??
    NO....they could never do that..and will never be able to...100% Guarantee
    They dont have One Post..One PM...One message..OPEN CHALLENGE...where I have tried to give my contact details or references..which is MOST important for any broker...NOT EVEN ONE in so many months

    On the Other hand
    I have called them Newbie, Inexperienced, and basically Down right Dumb
    And can I PROVE That ??....Yes at least on 100s of occasions or even more
    with facts, knowledge and ground realities

    Who gained from it: People who were reading understood...whats right and whats bullshit !!!!!

    PS: I have a Elder cousin brother who is very fond of pulling my ears...and now you are doing the same

    I respect your thoughts and kind concern

    Will keep that in mind....

    Maaf kar do bhai :)
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by rrmanglesh

    Celebrated astrologer Bejan Daruwalla, however, has a radically different view on the Uttar Pradesh outcome.

    Talking to IANS on telephone from Mumbai, he insisted that Mayawati would return to power.

    "I am an astrologer, not a politician and hence would stick to what I have said earlier. Mayawati's return in Uttar Pradesh is imminent.

    "Nobody can move a Himalaya mountain, and she is one Himalaya," he said in his imitable style.

    "I am no god but by the grace of Ganesh, trust me. Maya would be the chief minister again, 175 percent for sure."


    I well remember that Mr. Bejan Daruwala had predicated that Indian Cricket team will reach in Final of world cup cricket 2007. But India lost in 1st round only.
    CommentQuote
  • Most guys have forgotten things like booth capturing. Grow up. Evms are the best things that happened to Indian democracy. All those people claiming tampering of Evms don't claim the same when non Congress parties win and come to power. Shame on you for indulging in malicious speculation.

    Those in the BJP camp and frothing at the mouth. BJP is the worst thing that happened to the Indian polity. Filled with genocidal control freaks. They want to control what you want to eat (ban on beef), what you drink (prohibition in Gujarat), what you wear (attempt to ban jeans in college by sushma swaraj and co the last time round) where you go (remember the women who were beaten in Bangalore).

    It is unconscionable to even think of supporting a party that subscribes to such views.

    Then there are the apologists who claim current prosperity is due to Bjp. Bull shit. Ifvthe congress had not initiated reforms back in the 90s you would still be waiting in line for bajaj scooters instead of buying hayabusa's now.
    CommentQuote
  • Bhai booth capturing hoti hai. Once I voted 17 times in parliament election. But now not possible. 20-25 years back it was easy but now no more. Thanks to TN sheshan and many small regional parties. Due to more political parties, votes are devided among all of them and it makes life tough to capture booth.
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  • Originally Posted by Agastya07
    Bhai booth capturing hoti hai. Once I voted 17 times in parliament election. But now not possible. 20-25 years back it was easy but now no more. Thanks to TN sheshan and many small regional parties.


    Precisely my point.



    Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by madgeek
    Most guys have forgotten things like booth capturing. Grow up. Evms are the best things that happened to Indian democracy. All those people claiming tampering of Evms don't claim the same when non Congress parties win and come to power. Shame on you for indulging in malicious speculation.

    Those in the BJP camp and frothing at the mouth. BJP is the worst thing that happened to the Indian polity. Filled with genocidal control freaks. They want to control what you want to eat (ban on beef), what you drink (prohibition in Gujarat), what you wear (attempt to ban jeans in college by sushma swaraj and co the last time round) where you go (remember the women who were beaten in Bangalore).

    It is unconscionable to even think of supporting a party that subscribes to such views.

    Then there are the apologists who claim current prosperity is due to Bjp. Bull shit. Ifvthe congress had not initiated reforms back in the 90s you would still be waiting in line for bajaj scooters instead of buying hayabusa's now.


    Just one Correction.... Congress is the worst thing that happened to the Indian Politics..... No matter Congress Wins or not but they are most corrupt party in entire World.... and only Congress is responsible for 85% Indian Population are very POOR and can not eat twice a day properly.... only & only Congress is responsible ....
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by madgeek
    Most guys have forgotten things like booth capturing. Grow up. Evms are the best things that happened to Indian democracy. All those people claiming tampering of Evms don't claim the same when non Congress parties win and come to power. Shame on you for indulging in malicious speculation.

    Those in the BJP camp and frothing at the mouth. BJP is the worst thing that happened to the Indian polity. Filled with genocidal control freaks. They want to control what you want to eat (ban on beef), what you drink (prohibition in Gujarat), what you wear (attempt to ban jeans in college by sushma swaraj and co the last time round) where you go (remember the women who were beaten in Bangalore).

    It is unconscionable to even think of supporting a party that subscribes to such views.

    Then there are the apologists who claim current prosperity is due to Bjp. Bull shit. Ifvthe congress had not initiated reforms back in the 90s you would still be waiting in line for bajaj scooters instead of buying hayabusa's now.


    You think a italian like sonia can benefit india?
    Can she be patriotic?
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by akash.g
    You think a italian like sonia can benefit india?

    Can she be patriotic?


    Patriotism is the first refuge of scoundrels. (you look that up to see who said it).

    Can't say about Sonia Gandhi, but my little toe has more patriotism than the entire bjp and the associated loonies.

    Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express
    CommentQuote
  • Highly provocative post. And I am provoked.

    Originally Posted by madgeek
    Most guys have forgotten things like booth capturing. Grow up. Evms are the best things that happened to Indian democracy. All those people claiming tampering of Evms don't claim the same when non Congress parties win and come to power. Shame on you for indulging in malicious speculation.

    Aren't non-congress parties winning in UP? Still people are speculating.

    Those in the BJP camp and frothing at the mouth. BJP is the worst thing that happened to the Indian polity. Filled with genocidal control freaks.

    BJP is Genocidal. Sure. But don't forget the countless riots that happened during congress rule in various parts of India. Including the Anti Sikh riot, executed 100% by congress goons. At least the PM of BJP asked his own CM to perform is duty. While in case of congress, shameless Rajiv Gandhi said : "Jab bada ped girta hai, to dharti hiltee hi hai".

    They want to control what you want to eat (ban on beef), what you drink (prohibition in Gujarat), what you wear (attempt to ban jeans in college by sushma swaraj and co the last time round) where you go (remember the women who were beaten in Bangalore).

    Even Mahatma Gandhi opposed beaf and alcohol. Was he from BJP? And who banned alcohol in Gujarat? Modi? Who beat up women in Bangalore? It was Sriram Sena, if you care to know.

    It is unconscionable to even think of supporting a party that subscribes to such views.

    I agree that BJP is traditionalist, and many view that as a flaw. Fine. Every party has huge flaws. If you are so much agaist it, it is your right. But before blaming its supporters, tell them a party which is better in every respect than BJP. And prove it.



    Then there are the apologists who claim current prosperity is due to Bjp. Bull shit. Ifvthe congress had not initiated reforms back in the 90s you would still be waiting in line for bajaj scooters instead of buying hayabusa's now.


    Huh! Reforms done by Narsimha Rao were good. So? Who brought the country to that begging level in the first place? Reforms done by the govt in 1992-3 were by force, and not by choice. India had nothing in their forex reserves. World back agreed to give loans, but only on the condition that India would take up reforms.

    No one claims that all the prosperity in India is due to BJP. Neither should you claim that all of it is due to congress. If it was so, all states under their rule would prosper. I come from Maharashtra, where cong NCP is enjoying third consecutive term. They have ruined the state. In my town, we get water for 1 hour in 5 days.

    Leave everything, one incident is enough to show which party has more honest leaders. The CVC case:

    Only 3 members in the selection panel. MMS, chiddu and Sushma. 3 names in the list. Chiddu proposes PJ Thomas as govt's choice. Sushma says that he is a convict in Palm oil case of Kerala. Chiddu *lies* that it has been cleared now. Sushma sais that she would have to verify. Let us meet tomorrow. Chiddu says that they want to finalise now itself. Then Sushma says you choose any name from the remaining two, I have no objection. Chiddu says NO, we want Thomas only. Sushma say OK, I will write dissent. Chiddu agrees.
    MMS is in MMS mode throughout the meeting. Then the govt lies in the supreme court also, that we didn't know abt his conviction. Then facts are presented, it admits it as a clerical error!

    Shame on such a govt. And shame on Sushma and BJP, for not utilizing this issue to score points over congress.
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  • Originally Posted by madgeek
    Patriotism is the first refuge of scoundrels. (you look that up to see who said it).

    Can't say about Sonia Gandhi, but my little toe has more patriotism than the entire bjp and the associated loonies.

    Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express


    :bab (59): why Sonia/RG do not say any word when Hindu/Muslim both were beaten like animal at Ram Leela Maidan.... Congress patriotism... MY FOOT.

    Days are not far, if even few will think Congress patriotism then India may soon seen next Emergency just like the time of Indira Gandhi.... Ek machle puure talab ko ganda karte hai and here are FOUR S/R/P/R (including daamad ji)
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by saurabh2011
    Just one Correction.... Congress is the worst thing that happened to the Indian Politics..... No matter Congress Wins or not but they are most corrupt party in entire World.... and only Congress is responsible for 85% Indian Population are very POOR and can not eat twice a day properly.... only & only Congress is responsible ....


    Blah blah blah. These things have been said for decades. Guess what? the only concrete steps taken have been by the Congress. Be it to combat hunger (right to food, nrega) to tackle education (again rights and reservations).

    Affirmative action is not pretty, but itvshould be given a chance especially on economic grounds. The so called social justice parties did nothing. SP, BSP, JD, BJD all rose to power on the social justice front and proceeded to rob the very electorate blind. Don't even get me started on the communists.
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