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Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

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Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

Last updated: April 13 2014
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  • Re : Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

    Zohaib - Dwaraka was the affordable place few years back with HUGE OVERSUPPLY - F*** everything else - affordable is the key word. All those who couldn't afford anywhere else bought there. Now the critical mass is settled there and the prices are buoyant.

    Anything that is affordable/livable will find takers - the demand is huge - HUGE.

    In my company based out out of gurgaon, only managers and above bought flats a couple of years back, now every associate has a flat in Noida/Noida Extension - though they all work in Gurgaon. Why? coz they could afford in Noida and bought. PERIOD!

    My bet is it that the supply will all be absorbed in the years to come.

    Humility aint your forte and I am a bit allergic to ill mannered kids!

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    • Re : Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

      EXACTLY...ground situation is quite different than what is being projected...

      In the next two years, i dont see many projects being delivered...LB and LP are the high density projects which are located conveniently and dont have much competition....rest of the projects like LBC, Paras Tieriea will have limited supply coming in phases and mostly held by long term investors/ end users....

      projects in 143/ 168/ 150 will take atleast 5-7 yrs for delivery....and by that time Sec 143 / 135 jobs will be fully operational and if SP govt does what it is famous for i.e industrialist friendly/ job creation it will be absorbed gradually by the market./..

      and the MOST IMPORTANT factor of job creation is being ignored royally...

      Comment


      • Re : Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

        and my calculation tells me few of the larger players who are living on the edge might be facing financial crisis with a short lived slowdown already facing Indian economy..so you can easily expect them to delay their projects by additional 2-3 yrs..

        guys who are selling land in this scenario are the smartest lot...(read 3C) and vice versa is also true (Supertech)///

        Comment


        • Re : Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

          Originally posted by realguru View Post
          Tell me one thing, when will all societies be RTM . I'll tell you the answer, NEVER!!!! Some projects are going to get stuck, some projects will become RTM but in phases and there will be some projects which are never going to take off.

          And why do we need to talk of supply now only !!! Unitech started its project in 2007, Omaxe started its project in 2007 !! Are they even 20% RTM even after 5 years . I am not going to discuss about JP because we all know the fate and mind you it started 5 years ago. So, the variety that you are talking of won't be there even after 5 years going by the same logic.

          The point that I want to drive home is that if a project gets delivered , even if its high dense it is going to command high premium and ROI even now till the time it gives the possession will be decent . Don't get worried about the suppy which could be there after 5 years . If you are confident about your project that it is going to be delivered , ROI is going to be decent even from now on because not all projects are going to be delivered in the recent time . And even big projects like LB and LP are going to be delivered in phases. So, its not the case that suddenly 4000 flats will jump in the market , its going to happen in next 4-5 years and that too if all goes well.

          Just look at Supertech and Antriksh projects near Metro station . Ideally those flats should have been in market because those are more than 4 years old. But do you think they are going to be RTM even in next 2 years !!

          So where is the supply !!!! If you have a decent RTM flat, you are going to get decent return for it especially for all the projects which get delivered till 2015 .

          Huge Supply won't be coming in till 2018-2020 and we can't predict the demand of these flats till then .

          ANSWER ..In Short and simple words..spl. for you

          IMPORTANT POINT TO KEEP IN MIND: Not only Number of Projects are TOO HIGH....Due to Highest FAR in NCR...the Number of Flats in Each project is also TOO HIGH

          100+ Projects ALL WITHIN A RADIUS OF 10 KMS from each other
          and WORSE (For Investors)....Well connected already or planned to be connected by roads !!!!!!
          Means a Buyer wont bother going from sector 100 to 110 or from 110 to 137 or from 168 to 143....or from 7x to 100...or in future from Noida extension to 7X..All within reach...which is great for End user..but not good for Investors...AS EXCLUSIVITY of location goes for a Six

          ASSUME
          ONLY 30% Of Present Under construction projects are Complete in next 3-4 years.....Forget about the rest 70% (for the sake of example)

          With 100+ projects UC = approx 300 Projects of 2003-04

          EVEN IF JUST 30% Complete....

          They STILL would be EQUAL TO NEARLY 100 SOCIETIES OF Year 2003-04 !!!

          How many Societies are there in Noida TODAY RTM...Certainly Not 100+

          1 Lotus panache project is equalling the supply of entire Present RTM Societies of sector 93

          Enjoy




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          • Re : Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

            Originally posted by zohaib2012 View Post
            [B]ANSWER ..In Short and simple words..spl. for you
            1 Lotus panache project is equalling the supply of entire Present RTM Societies of sector 93

            Enjoy

            This Lotus panache project example can work the other way also. If somebody does not like this project then this whole supply is out from his consideration in one go.

            Comment


            • Re : Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

              Originally posted by prakashjh24 View Post
              EXACTLY...ground situation is quite different than what is being projected...

              In the next two years, i dont see many projects being delivered...LB and LP are the high density projects which are located conveniently and dont have much competition...
              rest of the projects like LBC, Paras Tieriea will have limited supply coming in phases and mostly held by long term investors/ end users....
              There are hardly any LONG TERM Investors in Flat market.....they are there in PLOT Markets.....
              Flats Investors....Short term...Book at pre launch in CLP and sell at 3,4th installment and move on

              Long Term...Book and hold till possession....
              No Investor wants to have the headache of paying high maintenance and answering 100 questions of the Buyer who will check each and every damn thing before buying....and above all...no investor wants to risk his 3 yeasr investment for the Maintenance skills of the maintenance agency....If maintenance is poor...his investment goes for a toss...EG: Supertech emerald court...Paravnath prestige...etc in sector 93 noida

              3C People were claiming that LB has 70% End User....but now suddenly...many brokers are offering BEST Investories in ANY TOWER
              How come ?????
              These are the LONG TERM Investors of the project who WILL EXIT

              In Real estate..DREAMS ARE SOLD....that gives maximum returns
              A RTM Project is REAL....nobody will bother whether the builder is 3C or 4C...the buyer will talk about View, maintenance, crowd, facilties, density, construction qualtiy IN REAL !!!!

              projects in 143/ 168/ 150 will take atleast 5-7 yrs for delivery
              Have you seen the pace of construction of Paras seasons, LBG and Jaypee Aman ???

              ....and by that time Sec 143 / 135 jobs will be fully operational and if SP govt does what it is famous for i.e industrialist friendly/ job creation it will be absorbed gradually by the market./..

              and the MOST IMPORTANT factor of job creation is being ignored royally...
              Sector 135 Unitech SEZ and 3C Oxygen SEZ was made in past 3 years or so.....1000s of people work there..just in past 3 years....Do you see them lining up to buy a RTM Flat in Lotus Boulevard at present rates ?????
              As thats the nearest to their jobs...near to noida...good location...etc etc

              Friend...THESE PROJECTS ARE M.I.G

              M.I.G Buyers Have a B.U.D.G.E.T

              B.U.D.G.E.T Buyers will go for some other location if the location they want is not selling within their B.U.D.G.E.T

              And the options are MANY.....LIKE NEVER BEFORE

              END USER BUYER WILL HAVE OPTIONS LAID OUT IN FRONT OF HIM LIKE A BUFFET DINNER FOR KINGS !!!!!!!!

              Think my friend..Think......!!!!

              HAD THESE BEEN PREMIUM PROJECTS....then its different....A lot of buyers will come from delhi..selling their Old Dda or society flatsand looking for New flats with open gardens etc etc....Like what happened in Noida in early 2000s

              But delhi junta will not like these SUPER DENSE Projects...their 2 bhk in sarita vihar will make more sense to them !!!!

              The Premium Projects in Noida are LIMITED and will Gain A LOT but MIG Projects...Nope...!!!!


              Comment


              • Re : Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

                Originally posted by amarakbar View Post
                This Lotus panache project example can work the other way also. If somebody does not like this project then this whole supply is out from his consideration in one go.

                Out of 100 if even 30 make it to the end.....if you reject 1....you have atleast 30 more to choose from...ALL EASILY APPROACHABLE by the Noida roads.

                Investors....Just hope and pray that Noida 7x IS NOT connected to sector 100 properly....and 7X is NOT Connected to Noida extn....warna More problem as buyer will say...''yaar yahan zyada rate bata raha hai...3 kms idhar chalte hain...badhiya road hain...car main 5 min lagenge''

                MIG Segement ki yahi problem hai....Buyer ka budget ussey ijaazat nahin deta chaadar ke bahar paun phailane ka....
                He will look elsewhere !!!!

                In the INVESTOR gets caught in this....paper price to 6000 psf ho gaya...par buyer 5000 se upar nahin dena chahta....abhi to koi maslaa nahin.....jab Maintenance deni padtee tab aur mushkil

                PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT JOBS, JOBS, JOBS...

                Bhai mere...I think 90% people on this forum posting comments are in SAME JOBS people are talking about creating in Noida...

                You are on a salary....same salary will be offered to offices in noida..if they open....koi double ya triple to hogi nahin ....

                Now ask yourself...IF YOU WERE A BUYER...WOULD YOU BUY A 2 BHK 950 SQ.FEET FLAT WITH 35% LOADING...IN ONE OF THE HIGHEST DENSITY SOCIETY OF NCR....IN ONE OF THE HIGHEST DENSITY SECTORS OF NOIDA......AT 7000 PSF ???????????

                Thats the Rate TODAYS Investor is HOPING after 2-3 years when he is Buying for investment at todays prices of 4500-5000 psf !!!!!

                As i said....People who bought at 3500 prices or so....You made the Good deal.....

                5000 Psf for ''INVESTMENT''...Not recommended


                Last edited May 8 2012, 08:17 PM.

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                • Re : Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

                  Zohaib Sir,
                  With an investment horizon of 5 years, do you think GNIDA plots in Noida extn make sense at 29000 rs/sq. m.?


                  rgds,
                  Anurag
                  Last edited May 8 2012, 08:25 PM.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

                    all your logics are applicable to Gurgaon also...

                    Gurgaon also extends from Sohna Road to Sec 78-100 to Manesar to Neemrana to Jaipur and is never ending...Similar is Noida...

                    Principle of investment is the proximity to CP...Now that has gradually moved to Sec 18 and the goal posts keep changing...Who knows the next destination cd be PArio Chowk/ Grand Venezia...

                    One Thing you need to understand is the business dynamics have changed exponentially in NCR..All this while you are comparing Noida with what it used to be in 2003-2004...My friend, today jobs are being created in 1000s unlike in past when it used to be in 100s...accordingly the need of the user has changed...One building in Unitech SEZ is almost equal to 5 corporations in Sec 58/ 63...Game plan has changed which is evident!!! You will need to understand that there is a DIRECT CORRELATION between commercial, residential and Job market...Pls understand why Greater Noida is languishing even with fantastic infrastructure,,,the only reason is JOB..this is the only reason why Gurgaon scores over Noida in the short run with not even half the infrastructure and twice the distance from Delhi....

                    You need to understand that NOIDA is very small and is sealed from all sides...Ghaziabad, Mayur Vihar, Maharani Bagh, Greater Noida, East Delhi..that is it...The land in Noida has already exhausted (we can debate this endlessly)...So its but obvious property prices will rise in long term...But obvioulsy it wont give the same ROI which it has in the last couple of years but the projects closer to sec 18 will always be premium to Sec 137/ 168/ 150 provided manitenance is good..I dont see high FAR to be a show stopper....

                    Noida plots are thing of the past and no more affordable for people without unaccounted money...So that has no relevance to the Flat market...

                    On LB, 3C never claimed it to be occupied by end users...Even i have been an investor in 3C right from day 1 but have been rotating my investments from one 3C project to another primarily on the EWay..simple logic is If I am selling someone ofcourse is buying...so new hands keep coming in with different ROI expectation and objectives...

                    no doubt units are available in LB but apparently all decent units are trading 5k + and this is just the start,,,, As and when occupancy increases the prices are bound to go UP and only up...Correction if at all happens it will be in Sectors like 143/ 150 and to a certain extent in 168...Sectors till 93 B are safe!!!!

                    One thing which is coming out unanimously is there will be shortage of LUXURY flats in Noida in the next 3 years...so i for One have moved most of my investments in luxury projects like L300 and Prateek Edifice and I am willing to take possession to reap the benefits in longer term...

                    I can go on and on but i rest my case here....

                    Comment


                    • Re : Akhileshs SECRET proposal to CREDAI

                      Bhaiyaa.....Pehle to yeh sector Noida extension main aata hai..isliye land issue clear nahin.....so its a risk...

                      in simple words i will call it disputed property.....

                      agar aise risk lene ka shauq hai....ki agar saara paisa doob gaya to koi tension nahin....
                      then accha Unit Utha sakte ho

                      Yeh noida extn matter clear hua...aur Plot rates upar gaye!!!!

                      aur yeh bhi ho sakta hai

                      Issue solve nahin hua...aur paise doob gaye....

                      Choice is urs

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