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Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(


Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(

Last updated: March 15 2012
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  • #31


    Re : Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(



    • #32


      Re : Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(

      Is liye ab harkiseko advise karta hu. Hold your investments for a longer time. Jo investments abhe tak hold kare ha wo body ka RBC count badate rahte han.


      • #33


        Re : Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(

        seems that everyone has deviated from the original purpose of the thread -

        well i was bearish on noida ext and that has played out well - was bullish on unauthosed colony of south delhi but has not given too much retun 14 lakhs invested ;last yr is jut 18 -19 today


        • #34


          Re : Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(

          Originally posted by Delhi Guy View Post
          Is liye ab harkiseko advise karta hu. Hold your investments for a longer time. Jo investments abhe tak hold kare ha wo body ka RBC count badate rahte han.

          hats off!!!

          looking at the brighter side at least you made money!!! (accept one case)

          Your experiences are really an Eyeopener and can make an RE kidda look like big zero.



          • #35


            Re : Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(

            Eek aapni bhi chot, in 2002 dad n uncles sold family kothi for 60L. Now each floor 2Cr... saab kismat ki baat hai babu...


            • #36


              Re : Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(

              Mine: Without any ground knowledge critisized 3C projects a lot as they were 30% costlier than others. Thinking that all will sell at similar price on possession. But that's not true. 3C remained leader in last 2.5 years in NOIDA and seems like will be on top in future.

              As most of their projects are in high demand. Although realized it long back and stopped crrtisizing 3C on IREF.

              Another reason stopped critisizing 3C is they are already out of reach of middle class, I mean people earning upto 1 Lakh per month. And on IREF I only write/share/think for similar middle class people like me.

              But regarding Noida extn, I advised people in 2010 to buy upper floors in NOIDA at 2500/sqft rather than buying first floor at 2000/sqft in Gaur city which holds true.

              Another prediction I did about advising people NOT to buy Mahagun Mordene at 3500 AI a year ago and wait for RESALE to open. But it seems failed.... But I am not sure....

              2 Month back I predicted about Jaypee Kosmos which was selling in resale at 3050/sqft that for Japyee product it's so cheap that no chance of delivery in 2 years....Prediction was in Jan 2012... let's see....


              • #37


                Re : Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(

                In Feb 2010 I almost finalized a deal for ATS in IP for 2900 psf and then walked out thinking that rate is high and it is better to purchase in RIM when ready. well it is beyond my reach now.

                Very next month I almost booked gardenia 75. but stopped my chq smelling rat. it turned out to be blessing.

                In early 2010 I thought expressway as a banjar jungle. Today I regret my assessment and mis the opportunity.


                • #38


                  Re : Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(

                  Originally posted by Delhi Guy View Post
                  My Dad baught Sarita Vihar 3 BHK duplex in 2 L in 1984 and sold it in 6 L after 2 years thinking it won’t appreciate further. Now 2 Cr for the same flat.

                  Sold another Ashirwad App in IP extension for 11L after holding it for more than 12 years. Now its 1.5 Cr

                  Bought Rajdhani enclave in IP extension on power of attorney , Thinking it is safe investment to buy on POA. Never got that flat, because the initial allotter defaulted with society. Again 1.5 Cr loss
                  Bad luck I would say


                  • #39


                    Re : Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(

                    In 2006, went to Indirapurm with my cousin and wrote it off completely - UP, Ghaziabad, concrete jungle, too dense, no public infrastructure,....etc. Prices then were 1000 psf.

                    I backed out, but my cousin invested. Rest is history.


                    • #40


                      Re : Confession of Failed RE Predictions :-(

                      After a long time saw some interesting discussion. Thanks Parveenbhai for starting something afresh.

                      I have many and many to share ... but I would not say that it was failed or wrong prediction ... it was purely "I could not gather ENOUGH COURAGE to say YES"

                      The very first one was way back in 1995-96 in Ahmedabad, Maninagar area. The Duplex house was at 6-8L range and we are just out of college with highly paying JOB!! My close friend said YES .... and I purchased Scooter, music system, TV/VCR, Fridge, Washing Machine!!
                      <<The house is now more than a crore and my scooter was sold to kavadi>>

                      The next one was in 97-98, I was in Nashik and Row Houses at Mahatma nagar was selling at 12L-14L. It was so nice and beautiful that was almost decided to buy (of-course with support from my bapu). In Mumbai, no one dare to dream such a beautiful house unless you are Ambani... then thought who is going to stay there? ... purchased my first bike!! My close friend purchased a flat in 4L and now his flat is 60L.

                      The next one happened in 99-2000 in Mumbai, I was about to get married and thought of having our own flat. Initially thought of buying near to my parents in Borivli but 16L for a 2BHK sounded too much and settled in Mira road at 8L ... the 16L became a crore and the Mira road also appreciated significantly.

                      All these days, it was purely for own stay/end use ... the huge jump of Mira road house prompted to investment avenues ... RE is not liquid investment like shares but much better rate of overall return.

                      Late 2000, shifted to Gurgaon ... the old GGN going through massive changes. Sohna road was just in the news and Omaxe bungalow was at 14L. The sales guy came to our office with many and many options .. kaun jayega jungle mein? few dared that time.
                      Then another friend purchased in Dwarka and we all thought he gone completely mad.
                      One of my colleague's father (a very big shot) purchased in Shipra Sun city .. and we told "tera papa satiya gaye"
                      Another colleague's father gifted her a kothi in sector 14, costed around 16L ..

                      I could have invested in any of the above but could not gather the courage and all these RE are now more than a crore.

                      2000 to 2006 was very hectic for me and I was completely out of Indian RE market. One of my close friend made huge money in IP projects but got stuck in NP projects. He tried to pursue me for long time but I was not interested that time. I even asked one of my friend to visit NP for me and the report he gave me was enough for me to stay away.

                      2007 I sold my Mumbai flat and was in lookout for something .. Recession was around the corner so I thought RE market will CRASH and I will make a killing. Alas ... that crash never happened.

                      I was looking for 4 places, Ahmedabad, Mumbai, NCR and Kolkata.

                      Ahmedabad and Mumbai was out due to budget.

                      Waited from 2007 to 2009 for that elusive CRASH!! At the end of 2009, when there was very clear sign that recession is getting over .. started looking seriously.

                      And to my surprise, instead of any crash .. price increased 40-60%.

                      Due to too many NE projects, got a chance to confirm something in GN at a reasonable price.

                      So the learning is ... No one can guarantee you a RIGHT time .. just gather the courage and do it!! Only thing is, never over commit yourself.

                      There is no theory, no rationale, no logic, no research .... RE is all about your GUT FEELING!! Just Do It!!


                      Have any questions or thoughts about this?