What do you guys think about Jaypee Greens Wishtown - NOIDA? Is this a good time to buy? Is Wishtown a good investment?

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  • Originally Posted by dineshsays
    Oh go ahead you place your faith in whoever you want. You think I write to convince/ engage with the likes of you.

    It doesn't change the FACT that over 100 acres are available.

    If 100 acre of unencumbered prime land is really "available", why is JP sitting on it while lenders force it to sell off its best cement plants and take over its headquarters? Why is this not being monetized to clear the massive defaults on debt and dues to contractors who have stopped work on most towers ? Are JP's lenders, who have taken lien on even greater noida golf course and unsold JP flats just twiddling their thumbs ?

    Readers can use their common sense and arrive at the conclusion.
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  • Mr Gandhi - please once do some mathematics as you claim to be a genius - this hundred acre plot is amongst THE most valuable plot of land surrounded by BOTH sides by a Golf Course. If you do a FAR multiplier times 5000 (base selling rate less construction cost) times square feet available ie 5000 x 4356000 x 2 - the potential realisable amount is over 4300 Crore Rupees.

    It is a known fact that in this market this high networth area will not give it's full worth.

    As another example the shopping complex - Kalypso Arcade is about 70% ready - structure is 100% ready. They are still not selling it - anyone can walk into their office and ask why. Everytime the response will be - we will not get what is the true value of this project.

    All JP is offering their lenders is any amount of land in YEW - which will take time to be fully realisable in any case. I am talking infratech only.

    Rest most anything is up for grabs in any case.

    Yes, readers can use their own common sense and arrive at their own conclusions
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  • Mr Gandhi - can you give an offhanded summary of how much Jaypee has been able to sell off and how much is left - in approx thousand crores.
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  • Originally Posted by dineshsays
    Mr Gandhi - can you give an offhanded summary of how much Jaypee has been able to sell off and how much is left - in approx thousand crores.

    Mr dineshsays,

    It is not my full time job to track what is going on with JP's financials. However, there are highly paid and highly qualified people who do it for a living and their collective opinion is reflected in the all time lows in JP group companies' share price and the default rating on all of its debt. By the way, may I ask if you have any other profession ?
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  • You are certain that the group will fail/fold without knowing how many assets they have sold, how many they have yet to be sold?
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  • Originally Posted by dineshsays
    You are certain that the group will fail/fold without knowing how many assets they have sold, how many they have yet to be sold?

    Mr dineshsays,
    UNlike you, I am not certain about anything. Every day I have to evaluate problems that depend on thousands of variables and make decisions based on a probabalistic approach.

    Unlike you I have a full time profession and don't have time to indulge in childish prattle.
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  • @dineshsays the market cap of 3500 odd crores for all the 3 listed companies reflects the reality on the ground. Also there are lot of loans by unlisted subsidiaries not reflecting on the primary balance sheet of the 3 listed cos.

    The situation is grim.
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  • Selection of Asset for selling by Jaypee is also based on the expected 2017 UP Assembly election results. Most probable outcome for 2017 elections is a BSP + BJP combined Govt.

    Once BSP comes back to rule, a new cycle of development will start in this region. Jewar airport will be the first big thing happening which will drive many other fronts. Land values along Y-eway will see a surge & Jaypee is waiting for that.

    So Wishtown buyers, be optimistic & Wish a good govt coming back to rule UP.

    Akhilesh Yadav trying to present pro-development image by giving clearance to Jewar airport, but Central BJP govt will try to delay it by 6 to 7 more months till next elections in 2017. Credit will go to next UP govt which most probably would be a BSP + BJP alliance.
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  • Originally Posted by jollygood
    @dineshsays the market cap of 3500 odd crores for all the 3 listed companies reflects the reality on the ground. Also there are lot of loans by unlisted subsidiaries not reflecting on the primary balance sheet of the 3 listed cos.

    The situation is grim.

    Jollygood sir, are you adjusting the market cap down for cross holdings ? If company a is worth 100 crore and company b owns 50% of a and is worth 100 crore, consolidated market cap is 150, not 200.
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  • The election results are atleast 1 year away, another 1 more year for any meaningful work to start. In this 2 years only the interest burden will be another 10K crore at the min. How is JP going to service this.

    Also the UP govt does not money to give away, they can only offer land etc, which JP already has, so what can the govt really do to salvage the situation?
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  • Originally Posted by sahil092012
    Selection of Asset for selling by Jaypee is also based on the expected 2017 UP Assembly election results. Most probable outcome for 2017 elections is a BSP + BJP combined Govt.

    Once BSP comes back to rule, a new cycle of development will start in this region. Jewar airport will be the first big thing happening which will drive many other fronts. Land values along Y-eway will see a surge & Jaypee is waiting for that.

    So Wishtown buyers, be optimistic & Wish a good govt coming back to rule UP.

    Akhilesh Yadav trying to present pro-development image by giving clearance to Jewar airport, but Central BJP govt will try to delay it by 6 to 7 more months till next elections in 2017. Credit will go to next UP govt which most probably would be a BSP + BJP alliance.

    There is a difference between optimism and delusion. Jewar airport is commercially unviable for decades. Navi Mumbai airport which is commercially viable and where all approvals are in place is yet to take off.
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  • Jaypee's left out loan is now in range of 25 to 30 K crores. This will attract interest of around 3 to 4K crores a year and not 10K crores.

    Secondly, the airport will appreciate the value of huge land bank Jaypee is having along the yamuna e-way. F1 is likely to get tax exemption. The unsold projects on sports city will see some appreciation.

    But yes, this all is subject to two conditions that are actually interlinked:

    1. BSP coming back to rule UP
    2. Jewar airport see a ray of light...

    Otherwise there is no other third factor which can impact the RE in Noida-Gr Noida in atleast next 3 to 4 yrs...
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  • The situation now with jaypee and many other companies not just in RE but also in commodities, power etc. (completely solvent on paper but in dire distress for working capital) is a new thing in our economy. Its a new learning for our banks, for our industry. In some ways its unrpecedented. In the traditional economy, land used to be a very valuable asset and was cosidered the best collatral you can possibly have to secure your debts. All these now beleaguered companies own hundreds and thousands of acres of land. However, in an illiquid market, fungibilitty of land becomes almost zero. Banks (and RBI) realise that conundrum. nobody gains by destruction of corporate wealth in an economy, so banks will be foolish to force a solution (by sale, takeover or otherwise) in this situation, as there are multiple forces (lien holders) at play and they may not be able to recover even half their dues, and on top of that get tangled up in a legal mess that would take them decades to sort out. There are vultures who see an opportunity in this paradoxical situation of both the lender and the borrower, and they close in for the kill. The vultures include, potential buyers who wish to acquire distressed assets that they know can be converted into healthy ones with time and some capital infusion. Politically backed groups which can get regulatory or policy favours and revive broken industries. Strategic investors or consortiums who have the power to hold out get the most out of creating a distress and panic forcing banks to disinvest these assets for much lower valuations. our media is famously competent to work for these interests.

    Now the interesting thing to see is does the government and banks give in to these forces and write off the losses as cost of doing business or would they really play the role of strategic investors. This decision is not about financial wizardry, as much as its about regulatory backing and political will.

    In either case investors (people who have paid on the basis of the allotment of these properties) have a solid claim against the ultimate buyer who takes these distressed assets over. These liabilities will not just vanish. With so many cases piling up against Jaypee and court decisions for compensation coming in, these will all be passed on to the buyer "as is where is" basis. meaning they have to sort out this mess of delay penalties or interest, compensation etc. on top of principal amounts paid by home buyers.

    So its a situation where no one is getting their wish - jaypee wants to pay off, but they can't, banks want to sell off and recover but they can't, strategic investors (vultures) waiting to scavenge what is left over but they are wary of getting trapped.

    No solution is apparent at the moment which leaves it to Jaypee, as a reluctant owner waiting for better days to come.

    I still believe that Jaypee has a positive networth (on a notional valuation), otherwise banks wont be phoo..phoo ing around.
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  • Originally Posted by sahil092012
    Jaypee's left out loan is now in range of 25 to 30 K crores. This will attract interest of around 3 to 4K crores a year and not 10K crores.

    Secondly, the airport will appreciate the value of huge land bank Jaypee is having along the yamuna e-way. F1 is likely to get tax exemption. The unsold projects on sports city will see some appreciation.

    But yes, this all is subject to two conditions that are actually interlinked:

    1. BSP coming back to rule UP
    2. Jewar airport see a ray of light...

    Otherwise there is no other third factor which can impact the RE in Noida-Gr Noida in atleast next 3 to 4 yrs...


    Just for your info, even the 15K crore from UltraTech will flow in only after the deal is consummated. similar for others. I mentioned 10K interest for 2 years. You cannot expect everything to be in place the day the new govt is sworn in and that too is 1 year away
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  • Guys, behave or u would get suspended or worst, banned .
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