Risk reward ratio is against UC purchase as posted in another thread - reposting here since it was OT in that thread.

18.9.12:


In this thread, much of the discussion is about safe investing in NOIDA property. After an initial few pages which are election result centric for UP, the discussion veers around to the topic - which is - should one buy Ready to Move (RTM) or Under COnstruction (UC) property in NOIDA?

It is my contention that:

1. For self end use, buying RTM is better.

2. But while waiting to buy RTM, one should hedge against future price escalations by investing in UC property right away. But this investment should be well within one's earning capacity.

3. Investing more than one can afford in property in the "fear" that prices will rise too much and flat will be unaffordable - is just a fear. Actions should be based on prudent evaluations and not on fear

4. An EMI is like a SIP into property. Other SIP into debt products like FD/FMP and SIP into equities should be accompanied with EMI to invest in property - but within reason - not with excessive leverage.

5. Every diversified portfolio should have property as an essential part of the mix, more so if future flat/house purchase is planned

6. One should not confuse or mix up property for investment and property for end use - especially for those with lower budget and savings capacity.

Most of these aspects are discussed in detail within this thread.

Venkat

Since this thread is sticky and is seeing steady interest, I am posting links to other similar threads also having good discussion on the same topic below:

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/noida-real-estate/39527-3-reasons-why-prices-in-noida-will-not-continue-to-rise-phenomenally?t=41426

http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/noida/t-noida-expressway-future-trends-rates-per-sq-ft-39043.html

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/noida-real-estate/38916-confusing-advice-on-this-forum-for-end-users?t=40856

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/noida-real-estate/33988-comparing-gold-purchase-with-apartments-land?t=35911

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/noida-real-estate/23230-waiting-for-property-prices-to-fall-don-t?t=25427

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/noida-real-estate/14666-repercussions-of-up-elections-on-real-estate?t=16943

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/noida-real-estate/31209-shocked-by-the-current-rates-need-suggestions?t=33070

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/greater-noida-real-estate/21998-2012-predictions-for-noida-greater-noida?t=24089

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/noida-real-estate/40131-end-user-where-not-to-invest?t=42023

Originally Posted by Rajat__B
All points valid and taken..but I have a small problem. Maybe you can help me resolve it. I buy a 2000 sq. ft. house at 6.5K 2 years down the line from someone who purchased at 4.5 K say today. That gives him a margin of 2K in 2 years. In totality, I pay him 40lacs extra.

Now, why would I not like to be the person who can make 40 lacs on an investment of 70 lacs(CLP payment) by that time. Maybe, I have diversified investements in Noida. Gurgaon, Delhi etc along with Gold. But, I don't see that even 25 lacs(lower margin) return too bad in 2 year period from 1 set of investment. If I take it as a pure investment, I do not have time to move my money everyday and need a place to park it. Remember, I am not a full time invester. For me, this would be extra income & not primary...

Also, I am a telecom professional and Noida happens to be one of the hub besides Gurgaon, Delhi, mumbai, hyderabad, bangalore, pune etc. I don't know where I will be or even if I will be living in India but for sure even if I am in India, I won;t mind living in Noida in a nice decent sized flat with my wife as it is close to my ancestral house in Delhi where I can access my parents with ease. Remember, this is not my story alone. All my friends have put their money in Noida and they have same opinion. Its an open world today. Nobody really knows where they will end up. All of us can be end users or all of us be investors and also there is a probability, all of us may end up being end users without actually living in the houses. So, there are too many things that need to be factored in here. Its just not as simple..


Chances are high that 2 years later also price will be 4500 only.

Again, 2 years later you might find these risks have materialised:

1. Builder might have run away
2. Builder bankrupt and project stalled
3. Project not completed or still needs 2-3 more years
4. Project is poor quality
5. Project is in court
6. Project has no sewage/water/electricity
7. Project complete but club house pool and other amenities not existing
8. Project complete and RWA hijacked by corrupt and useless people

Isnt it better for end use to avoid all of these? If prices were low, these were acceptable risks.

When prices are high, these risks are not worth it - RTM is better

Omaxe Grandwoods is the standing example for all of these risks for end user - although investors are happy
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  • Originally Posted by dineshsays
    Anirudh Bhai humble opinion - for end use and if you want to reside here -choose Kalypso/Imperial and the like. For investment and returns choose KP2/1.

    Upside potential for these plots - atleast double in 5 years

    Noida sector 26 is quoting 1.5-1.6 l/psy. Give me one reason this wont go there in AT LEAST 5 years (there are similar stories even closer to WT)


    Dear Dinesh,

    Plots, normal plots, more often than not, are capable of getting to double in 4-5 years' time...20 to 25 % appreciation sans compounding is often feasible.

    In WT, we are talking about plots with special features, (i.e. gated, secured n power back up, pvt maintenance of Jaypee's quality, part of a larger scheme of things, called WT)....
    should these not appreciate a little faster ?
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  • Originally Posted by VedKapoor
    Dear Dinesh,

    Plots, normal plots, more often than not, are capable of getting to double in 4-5 years' time...20 to 25 % appreciation sans compounding is often feasible.

    In WT, we are talking about plots with special features, (i.e. gated, secured n power back up, pvt maintenance of Jaypee's quality, part of a larger scheme of things, called WT)....
    should these not appreciate a little faster ?


    Ved Sir - normally they should (my own plot in Noida doubled in last 2 years). However, we are in slightly uncertain times - even if we were to factor those - I'd say doubling in 5 years is on, though in my heart I feel it will be better than that
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  • Originally Posted by dineshsays
    Anirudh Bhai humble opinion - for end use and if you want to reside here -choose Kalypso/Imperial and the like. For investment and returns choose KP2/1.

    Upside potential for these plots - atleast double in 5 years

    Noida sector 26 is quoting 1.5-1.6 l/psy. Give me one reason this wont go there in AT LEAST 5 years (there are similar stories even closer to WT)


    Dinesh bhai... After going inside the Golf courses and seeing those beautiful pictures you have sent with the view for those towers in Imperial and Kalypso... i was like convinced that this is something i have missed out on - And it will be worth an investment in resale now !!!
    So you are actually to blame for adding a lot to my confusion ;)

    LionTalk... I completely agree with you on this idea about owning your own individual home ... where you are king and share nothing with anyone else !!!
    I come from a small town in UP and we have always stayed in good big size houses... And We had our own house in Panscheel Enclave in Delhi for many years ... but then after selling that ... we adjusted to apprtments in Gurgaon and now in Noida...making some good investments here also... which appreciate very well !
    So It is a little diff. at first - but the life is better and less headache in a flat no doubt !
    But the charm of my own house again is what makes me interested in this plot !!!

    Vedkapoor... Yes there are many +ves for these plots... but also many -ves...
    Just one e.g. How is anyone expected to live there in 3 years when kensington boulevard and Orchards buildings will keep getting constructed for the next 5 - 7 years atleast !!! You will go crazy getting your house cleaned everyday man !!!

    Ill probably finalise my deal for a kp2 plot or a 4bhk flat in Kalypso sometime in August as resale deals need their time for the black also... So I'll certainly keep you guys posted on the final deal i do !!!
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  • Originally Posted by Anirudh113


    Vedkapoor... Yes there are many +ves for these plots... but also many -ves...
    Just one e.g. How is anyone expected to live there in 3 years when kensington boulevard and Orchards buildings will keep getting constructed for the next 5 - 7 years atleast !!! You will go crazy getting your house cleaned everyday man !!!

    Ill probably finalize my deal for a kp2 plot or a 4bhk flat in Kalypso sometime in August as resale deals need their time for the black also... So I'll certainly keep you guys posted on the final deal i do !!!


    Hi Anirudh,

    Ongoing construction nuisance...very valid point...this will delay the in-habitation in these plots till 2015...construction of houses may start earlier to coincide with towers completion though...depending on individual's urgency...I have seen people shifting in their newly built houses even when they are to be plastered...I know this is exceptional...but just to emphasize the point on urgency.

    It is the ongoing construction that is keeping a lid on the prices at this time...not just of the plots, but of apartments also. In fact, my estimate is that, if these plots were good enuf to construct n move in one year...the prices would have been at least 50 % more from what they are today.
    In other words, in my estimation, in a year n a half, we can see 50 % growth from here. Just a POV, and am certainly not an expert.

    Hitherto...it has been an "ïn-the-making-thing"....once things look like having taken some shape...that is "Seeing is believing" is in place...you would see the difference...
    Of course, that is, when other variables remain in normal state..economy, slow down etc.

    Cheers!!!
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  • Originally Posted by VedKapoor
    Hi Anirudh,

    Hitherto...it has been an "ïn-the-making-thing"....once things look like having taken some shape...that is "Seeing is believing" is in place...you would see the difference...
    Of course, that is, when other variables remain in normal state..economy, slow down etc.

    Cheers!!!


    I agree 100% with you on this... That in coming time when things get completed and having taken the shape... it will all set in beautifully !

    And i know many on this IREF are brokers... bashing WT and JP... I mean they were saying this from day 1... but hasnt a LOT been completed... although slowly - but it has been completed for possession ... for all to see !!!

    So once things are completed - this WT will be a Class apart !!!

    And i find this soo funny... Uptil last year I was not even ready to look into WT... because all brokers and ppl on this IREF were just crazy after 3C and hated JP... but now even 3C projects r running late.. no delivery in hand even after completion... damn claustrophobic flats they have made in reality... with buldings everywhere... U will see Panache island flats will be a JOke when completed now... no privacy or open view at all like you get in WT buildings ... And i cant believe 3C flats were being compared with WT appartments !!!

    How things and ppl have changed their views within a year ... goes to show that you should buy at a later stage after seeing what the final product is coming about.... rather than just buying into every new launch... as if it is some new Reliance IPO in the market !!!
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  • Originally Posted by Anirudh113
    I agree 100% with you on this... That in coming time when things get completed and having taken the shape... it will all set in beautifully !

    And i know many on this IREF are brokers... bashing WT and JP... I mean they were saying this from day 1... but hasnt a LOT been completed... although slowly - but it has been completed for possession ... for all to see !!!

    So once things are completed - this WT will be a Class apart !!!

    And i find this soo funny... Uptil last year I was not even ready to look into WT... because all brokers and ppl on this IREF were just crazy after 3C and hated JP... but now even 3C projects r running late.. no delivery in hand even after completion... damn claustrophobic flats they have made in reality... with buldings everywhere... U will see Panache island flats will be a JOke when completed now... no privacy or open view at all like you get in WT buildings ... And i cant believe 3C flats were being compared with WT appartments !!!

    How things and ppl have changed their views within a year ... goes to show that you should buy at a later stage after seeing what the final product is coming about.... rather than just buying into every new launch... as if it is some new Reliance IPO in the market !!!


    Kya baat hai - RTM wale threads mein bhi Jaypee Wale chaye hue hain ....:bab (59):

    VedKapoor Ji, "Aniruddh113=JPKP2plot" sahab apne KP2 plots bech kar hi manoge.;) Sabko maloom hai - possession is near - Jaypee will impose heavy penalties if plot owners don't construct as per plan. Investors wants to get out. Bhai wah, Plots ko bhi RTM bana dala :bab (58):

    Aniruddh=JPKP2plot Ji - jo JP ke gun-gaan nahin kare woh broker
    Lage raho JPKP2plot bhai.

    Dinesh Bhai - Chokke - Chakke aap bhi mar lete ho .... haha:bab (59):
    Bhai Apke recent Jaypee expedition ke Analysis ka hum sab log be-sabri se intezar kar rahein hain. Vedkapoor and JPKP2plot ke sath kya time khoti kar rahe ho.

    Barish ka namo nishan nahin hai - Kahan gaye pre-mansoon showers iss bar ?

    Lets see, Aaj Behen Merkel kya gul khilayengi in Brussels at Euro Summit.

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  • Originally Posted by Shaurya29
    Kya baat hai - RTM wale threads mein bhi Jaypee Wale chaye hue hain ....:bab (59):

    VedKapoor Ji, "Aniruddh113=JPKP2plot" sahab apne KP2 plots bech kar hi manoge.;) Sabko maloom hai - possession is near - Jaypee will impose heavy penalties if plot owners don't construct as per plan. Investors wants to get out. Bhai wah, Plots ko bhi RTM bana dala :bab (58):

    Aniruddh=JPKP2plot Ji - jo JP ke gun-gaan nahin kare woh broker
    Lage raho JPKP2plot bhai.

    Dinesh Bhai - Chokke - Chakke aap bhi mar lete ho .... haha:bab (59):
    Bhai Apke recent Jaypee expedition ke Analysis ka hum sab log be-sabri se intezar kar rahein hain. Vedkapoor and JPKP2plot ke sath kya time khoti kar rahe ho.

    Barish ka namo nishan nahin hai - Kahan gaye pre-mansoon showers iss bar ?

    Lets see, Aaj Behen Merkel kya gul khilayengi in Brussels at Euro Summit.


    Dear Shaurya,

    :-)

    Naah...I am not looking to sell my unit. It meets my choice criteria nearly perfectly (I mean within my budget), and I reckon I will not be able to afford this later any time.

    Penalties on construction...I donno how heavy these are? Please can you throw some light if you are aware. Would be thankful.

    On a rough estimate..are we talking about 1 to 3 Lac / annum...which is like 1 to 2 % of the market value...then it is peanuts vis-a-vis the returns expected in holding the unit for a year or two extra...over n above the 3 year deadline. With the present state of WT's progress....3 years is a LOOONG time, sir.

    Dinesh's analysis...mee too looking forward eagerly.
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  • Originally Posted by Shaurya29


    VedKapoor Ji, "Aniruddh113=JPKP2plot" sahab apne KP2 plots bech kar hi manoge.;) Sabko maloom hai - possession is near - Jaypee will impose heavy penalties if plot owners don't construct as per plan. Investors wants to get out. Bhai wah, Plots ko bhi RTM bana dala :bab (58):

    Aniruddh=JPKP2plot Ji - jo JP ke gun-gaan nahin kare woh broker
    Lage raho JPKP2plot bhai.



    Shaurya... I am sorry if my praise towards JP - WT has hurt your sentiments... but it is only after seeing things for myself that i have changed my opinion about this whole project !

    And as for me = JPKP2plot... well i still dont have one - and that is why im discussing with ppl on this forum to get as much info about it... cause im still not sure if this is IT !!!

    ive only made up my mind - that i want to invest in something with this JP project... but ill see if i pick up a plot or appartment later in August !

    And incase you get interested in this later... then we can go together to get a better deal from IC ;)
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  • Originally Posted by Anirudh113
    Shaurya... I am sorry if my praise towards JP - WT has hurt your sentiments... but it is only after seeing things for myself that i have changed my opinion about this whole project !

    And as for me = JPKP2plot... well i still dont have one - and that is why im discussing with ppl on this forum to get as much info about it... cause im still not sure if this is IT !!!

    ive only made up my mind - that i want to invest in something with this JP project... but ill see if i pick up a plot or appartment later in August !

    And incase you get interested in this later... then we can go together to get a better deal from IC ;)


    Don't think you caught the drift here bro ;) - you're being accused of being the individual who goes by the alias JPKP2plot in the Jaypee Plots thread.

    In anycase - I think any further discussions on Jaypee plots should move to that thread as it is more to the point and is quite active

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  • Originally Posted by matrix_55
    I will take a shot at it, Venky pls correct me if I am wrong..

    Investment (for hedging) for RE means you are mirroring/locking the target RE.. like index tracking funds so they move together - whether it goes up or down does not matter - ultimately you want to lock them together. If RE gains so do you, if Re falls, target falls too. Hedging never betters the return, it only makes the outcome more certain and lets you deal with it. If ultimate aim is to buy something in RE in future (for living/commercial or any other ideosyncratic reason) you chase it by locking the RE piece avl today.

    Speculation is also buying RE but for gains and not for certainity and there is the difference- ultimately speculator liquidates and pulls out funds from the RE market for anyother use or repaying the loan/leverage.
    If as a speculator, the assumption you have written fails - you loose money.
    Technically if you have more funds to put into RE you could do a theoretical averaging but not many people have deep pools to average and/or live long enough(RE cycles are much longer) to see RE bets gone wrong turn good .

    End use - Expenditure is for self living (technically Rent is always an expense) with no aim of liquidating it for gains. If gains happen - great, 1 roti aur kha lo khushi mein. Otherwise you dont seek to sell it. The value of their primary residence is never calculated in compiling the list of HNIs.
    *********************************************************************
    Now for the assumption of RE prices do not go down:

    RE price never goes down is usually true however it is a cyclical business (commercial RE is more cyclical hence goes up down closely with business cycles, residential is less so because ppl use it for living/end use and less % of it is for investment so falls are rare - The population does not migrate unless business cycle changes drastically or calamities happen.
    However, as more houses are used for investment, the assumption that residential prices also always rise will be tested because now a larger % is used for investment/speculation now more exposed to business cycles.
    Speculation in RE is because its an asset and ironically thats why it has started to loose its asset colors and starts behaving like a liability.
    Things are assets under some controlled/standard conditions. If such conditions are altered they stop being an asset and become liabilities. The derivaties crisis and the subsequent liquidity response from central banks are a financial superstorm. It is going to test many well know assets and liabilities and will force us to focus on what an asset truly is and what are the conditions in which it can remain as asset. Once those conditions are breached - red flags should be updated. Something which govts do - China is doing it right now. We might be some way off but no one knows for sure because we do not have data but anecdotes. Black economy does not lend itself to economic data easily which is again specific to India. So problem is even our central bank does not have data like US does so no one knows the true picture.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Asset - quoting wiki: Anything tangible or intangible that is capable of being owned or controlled to produce value and that is held to have positive economic value is considered an asset

    Traditionaly RE (residential to be more accurate) is an asset because it exhibits/gives +ve economic value. It did so because ppl did not speculate in it in large nos.

    In US, RE is vaporised 30% of the wealth as per a report in news recently.

    Is RE an asset? Not always. Will someone rewrite rich dad poor dad for the next generation? A million dollar question.

    Now back to the assumption- RE prices rise usually however the % appreciation is more important. Even if RE price goes up and fails to meet target appreciation (at least equal lending rate from banks if loan is taken and cover buy/sell expense, its not a favorable outcome for investor)


    Good explanations, matrix.

    Just to expand: Expenditure is simple - it is the roof over your head. It can be own home or a rental flat - both are expenditure

    Investment is something with underlying yield - a share with earning, bond with interest or RE with rental yield

    Speculation is buying something whose price keeps varying but has no underlying yield. That means flat booking UC, plot and gold - none has yield.

    Now hedging is anticipating future expenditure and trying to anticipate price movements and hedge against price rise. Typical hedging for daughter's marriage is investing in a gold fund and exchanging it with real gold ornaments when needed. You can use both investment and speculation to hedge against price rise in RE (unlike gold which is always a speculative commodity)

    In investment, one can buy RTM flat/shop and rent it out. But in India rental yield is low and registration and other transaction costs are high - so while buying and selling the costs can wipe out quite a bit of the gain.

    So speculation is better (as very well explained above by matrix) - best is plot which delinks land price and construction price. So buy the land now and sell it when you need the flat. You are hedged against any land price movements.

    If you cant afford plot, book a flat - to be sold before registry to buy a bigger flat - keep doing that until you are ready to make your expenditure. These bookings should be in places where appreciation in percentage is more - and in the meantime rent in the location of choice where you have the best schools and other quality of life - and buy in the same location (or buy out the landlord) when your accumulation reached target for expenditure.

    As for RE prices falling - we saw static prices for almost a decade in the 1990 - those who lived through that time know about it. The new millenium with run away prices is harking back to the 70s and 80s (congress govt policies always cause high inflation especially RE)
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  • Originally Posted by dineshsays
    Don't think you caught the drift here bro ;) - you're being accused of being the individual who goes by the alias JPKP2plot in the Jaypee Plots thread.

    In anycase - I think any further discussions on Jaypee plots should move to that thread as it is more to the point and is quite active



    Dinesh bhai... I did pick up his hint !!!

    And that is why i said - JPKP has already got his plot.. And i am still looking for a plot there !!!

    So i hope Shaurya will catch the drift and diff. between us now ...

    Anyways... it doesnt matter to me what he thinks... he has a General problem... Not a Genuine Problem ;) Cause on this noida forum... everyone who speaks his mind is looked as someone either fooling the ppl or he is definitely a broker ;)
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  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    Good explanations, matrix.

    Just to expand: Expenditure is simple - it is the roof over your head. It can be own home or a rental flat - both are expenditure

    Investment is something with underlying yield - a share with earning, bond with interest or RE with rental yield

    Speculation is buying something whose price keeps varying but has no underlying yield. That means flat booking UC, plot and gold - none has yield.

    Now hedging is anticipating future expenditure and trying to anticipate price movements and hedge against price rise. Typical hedging for daughter's marriage is investing in a gold fund and exchanging it with real gold ornaments when needed. You can use both investment and speculation to hedge against price rise in RE (unlike gold which is always a speculative commodity)

    In investment, one can buy RTM flat/shop and rent it out. But in India rental yield is low and registration and other transaction costs are high - so while buying and selling the costs can wipe out quite a bit of the gain.

    So speculation is better (as very well explained above by matrix) - best is plot which delinks land price and construction price. So buy the land now and sell it when you need the flat. You are hedged against any land price movements.

    If you cant afford plot, book a flat - to be sold before registry to buy a bigger flat - keep doing that until you are ready to make your expenditure. These bookings should be in places where appreciation in percentage is more - and in the meantime rent in the location of choice where you have the best schools and other quality of life - and buy in the same location (or buy out the landlord) when your accumulation reached target for expenditure.

    As for RE prices falling - we saw static prices for almost a decade in the 1990 - those who lived through that time know about it. The new millenium with run away prices is harking back to the 70s and 80s (congress govt policies always cause high inflation especially RE)



    Venky,
    I think your explanation is slightly off the mark.

    Investment may have no underlying yield i.e. non-dividend paying stocks are as much 'investment' as a dividend paying ones' only clientele differ.

    I understand that hedging is used to minimize risk (a counter-cyclical move that actually results in a 'charge', an expense. E.g. buying a currency hedge) while speculation is like a bet (high risk, high return, high loss).
    But with 'RE prices never go down' assumption, the risk part of so-called speculation is diluted => high return with low risk !!

    It is this sustained super-normal profit of RE sector that cannot be explained by any economic law. Perhaps, your concept of 'black market' needs to be further built upon to explain this :)

    And I agree with your observation of congress rule; an era of perpetual shortage, black markets, regulation to the extent of strangulation, low productivity and a Nehru rate of growth.
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  • Originally Posted by jaijai
    Venky,
    I think your explanation is slightly off the mark.

    Investment may have no underlying yield i.e. non-dividend paying stocks are as much 'investment' as a dividend paying ones' only clientele differ.

    I understand that hedging is used to minimize risk (a counter-cyclical move that actually results in a 'charge', an expense. E.g. buying a currency hedge) while speculation is like a bet (high risk, high return, high loss).
    But with 'RE prices never go down' assumption, the risk part of so-called speculation is diluted => high return with low risk !!

    It is this sustained super-normal profit of RE sector that cannot be explained by any economic law. Perhaps, your concept of 'black market' needs to be further built upon to explain this :)

    And I agree with your observation of congress rule; an era of perpetual shortage, black markets, regulation to the extent of strangulation, low productivity and a Nehru rate of growth.


    Well said Jai. Although I may not agree with the last part ( only Congress Era to be bad). But that is beside the point.

    In fact, Indian RE is something more complex than what could be explained by the available economic concepts....these concepts were developed in the West or some even in India, which were in turn, influenced by the basic postulates developed in the West.

    It is for this reason, that when we make predictions on RE, taking cues from these available concepts or theories, we fail more often than we succeed...

    That is why, when it comes to Indian RE, common people with little knowledge of these economic fundamentals, but with better connect with ground realities of a Region make better money. They keep it simple and end up smiling. (Ignorance is bliss, at times, they say :-)

    On the other hand, much intelligent folks, better informed guys, good analysts keep discussing trying to unfold this mystery and end up creating more questions than clear answers.

    I dont know if I myself am making sense :-)
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  • ek ek RTM toh le loh maja ma ;)
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