Get the long version at

https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/other-forums/general-real-estate-discussion/12842-long-term-predictions-2011-2012-2013-and-now-2014/page12?t=15139&page=12

Scroll to bottom of that page.

Summary is below:

Predictions for 2013:

1. Stocks up. Possibly 25% return can be expected. Sensex 25000. Main propelling drivers will be some governance improvement and US climbing over the fiscal cliff (happened already after I wrote this) and unleashing another round of liquidity. Stocks should remain steadily up throughout from now till 2014 budget at least. SIP should continue and any dips should be used to buy.

2. Best sectors: cyclical and infrastructure, construction, cement, banks.

3. Avoid: FMCG and durables because of saturation and belt tightening and overvalued share prices.

4. Bonds: Mild 0.25 % fall in Repo rates is the best that can be expected. RBI unlikely to reduce further. Returns are not enough to justify eschewing stocks in favour of bonds – so if you are overweight bonds, sell now and shift to stocks.

5. FD: Returns of 8% plus will continue. Best safe and high returns available. At least 30% should be here or in PF.

6. Real estate: Stagnant markets are likely. No need to increase exposure at this juncture – but also no need to sell existing investments – hold what you already have.

7. Best RE market (for those underexposed to RE currently) for 2013 is likely to be Bangalore, Chennai, Chandigarh, Bhubaneshwar and certain locations of Mumbai – although 2014 will be better for Mumbai than 2013 on the back of good stock market performance.

8. Steady markets will be Gurgaon flats, NOIDA extension, Jaipur, Lucknow, Coimbatore, Mangalore, Kolkata, most of Mumbai, Pune and Dehradun.

9. Falling or steady with slight downward trend type of markets will be in NOIDA central, Kundli, Delhi builder floors and Lal Dora, Gurgaon plots, Dwarka expressway, NOIDA expressway, Yamuna Expressway, Faridabad, Bhiwadi/Daruhera, Neemrana.

10. Gold: Stagnant prices. Rupee strengthening will wipe out the returns of the fiscal cliff being climbed.

11. Dollar: Weak at 51-53 levels for most of the year.

12. Oil: Weak. NYMEX 85-90. Brent 100-110. Not much movement

13. RBI repo: maximum 0.25% cut.

Caveats:

1. Govt falls. This will kill the Rupee, Real estate and stock markets. Gold will shoot up. Same effect as war = do the same things, sell stocks, bonds and buy gold.

2. War involving us, Pak, China, South Korea, Argentina or Iran: Same results as above.

ASSETS FOR INDIA:

Asset of 2013 = stocks

Asset of the decade = Real estate

Asset of the next 3 decades = stocks

Asset to avoid in 2013 = gold.

Asset to avoid in the next decade = gold. With 2014/15/16 being short term exception as detailed above. You can avoid gold altogether and ride out disturbances in FD plus RE also.

Asset to avoid in next 3 decades = gold. It will extinguish as asset after 2018 or so.

Value is what humans place on a thing – if a thing is prized, it is priced high. If a thing is no longer prized, it will not be priced. Not even gold.
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  • Good analysis, though don't think Gold will loose its shine though - may not yield best returns
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  • Indore , Agra are few cities one should consider....
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  • Artciles seems to be detailed but prediction/forecast of more than couple of years does not make sense to me. 3 decades or even a decade is very long. I think no one would have predicted current situation 15 years back....


    Moderators, please make this thread sticky for one year and lets see how the trends go....
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  • repo cut of only 0.25 and sensex at 2500....both cant happen together
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  • Originally Posted by rakesh_sahu
    Artciles seems to be detailed but prediction/forecast of more than couple of years does not make sense to me. 3 decades or even a decade is very long. I think no one would have predicted current situation 15 years back....


    Moderators, please make this thread sticky for one year and lets see how the trends go....


    Why dont you follow the link and check out last 3 years predictions and the analysis.

    Much more detail there
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  • Originally Posted by rakesh_sahu
    Indore , Agra are few cities one should consider....

    Agra???? Where ? Why?
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  • can understand Yumana express way will not provide good returns but fail to understand whats logic for faridabad and bhiwadi!
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  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    9. Falling or steady with slight downward trend type of markets will be in NOIDA central, Kundli, Delhi builder floors and Lal Dora, Gurgaon plots, Dwarka expressway, NOIDA expressway, Yamuna Expressway, Faridabad, Bhiwadi/Daruhera, Neemrana.



    Venky sir .. noida expressway .. slight downward trend market ???
    why so ?
    :)
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  • Originally Posted by jass_s
    can understand Yumana express way will not provide good returns but fail to understand whats logic for faridabad and bhiwadi!


    Too far for commute with high transport cost due inflation. Already fair value for location.

    Originally Posted by Baruch
    repo cut of only 0.25 and sensex at 2500....both cant happen together


    FII dont borrow from RBI but from Fed.

    Originally Posted by trialsurvey
    Venky sir .. noida expressway .. slight downward trend market ???
    why so ?
    :)


    Unaffordable prices. Oversupply.

    Again i say get 5 times more detail by following link in first post.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    Get the long version at

    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/other-forums/general-real-estate-discussion/12842-long-term-predictions-2011-2012-2013-and-now-2014/page12?t=15139&page=12

    Scroll to bottom of that page.

    Summary is below:

    Predictions for 2013:

    1. Stocks up. Possibly 25% return can be expected. Sensex 25000. Main propelling drivers will be some governance improvement and US climbing over the fiscal cliff (happened already after I wrote this) and unleashing another round of liquidity. Stocks should remain steadily up throughout from now till 2014 budget at least. SIP should continue and any dips should be used to buy.

    2. Best sectors: cyclical and infrastructure, construction, cement, banks.

    3. Avoid: FMCG and durables because of saturation and belt tightening and overvalued share prices.

    4. Bonds: Mild 0.25 % fall in Repo rates is the best that can be expected. RBI unlikely to reduce further. Returns are not enough to justify eschewing stocks in favour of bonds – so if you are overweight bonds, sell now and shift to stocks.

    5. FD: Returns of 8% plus will continue. Best safe and high returns available. At least 30% should be here or in PF.

    6. Real estate: Stagnant markets are likely. No need to increase exposure at this juncture – but also no need to sell existing investments – hold what you already have.

    7. Best RE market (for those underexposed to RE currently) for 2013 is likely to be Bangalore, Chennai, Chandigarh, Bhubaneshwar and certain locations of Mumbai – although 2014 will be better for Mumbai than 2013 on the back of good stock market performance.

    8. Steady markets will be Gurgaon flats, NOIDA extension, Jaipur, Lucknow, Coimbatore, Mangalore, Kolkata, most of Mumbai, Pune and Dehradun.

    9. Falling or steady with slight downward trend type of markets will be in NOIDA central, Kundli, Delhi builder floors and Lal Dora, Gurgaon plots, Dwarka expressway, NOIDA expressway, Yamuna Expressway, Faridabad, Bhiwadi/Daruhera, Neemrana.

    10. Gold: Stagnant prices. Rupee strengthening will wipe out the returns of the fiscal cliff being climbed.

    11. Dollar: Weak at 51-53 levels for most of the year.

    12. Oil: Weak. NYMEX 85-90. Brent 100-110. Not much movement

    13. RBI repo: maximum 0.25% cut.

    Caveats:

    1. Govt falls. This will kill the Rupee, Real estate and stock markets. Gold will shoot up. Same effect as war = do the same things, sell stocks, bonds and buy gold.

    2. War involving us, Pak, China, South Korea, Argentina or Iran: Same results as above.

    ASSETS FOR INDIA:

    Asset of 2013 = stocks

    Asset of the decade = Real estate

    Asset of the next 3 decades = stocks

    Asset to avoid in 2013 = gold.

    Asset to avoid in the next decade = gold. With 2014/15/16 being short term exception as detailed above. You can avoid gold altogether and ride out disturbances in FD plus RE also.

    Asset to avoid in next 3 decades = gold. It will extinguish as asset after 2018 or so.

    Value is what humans place on a thing – if a thing is prized, it is priced high. If a thing is no longer prized, it will not be priced. Not even gold.



    without any basis to support all this, a better subject for this thread is - Speculations for India in 2013
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  • Originally Posted by TheGuru
    without any basis to support all this, a better subject for this thread is - Speculations for India in 2013


    Very true .... faridabad yet to hit by Metro .. and Metro Only we know how changes the BOOOOOOM secondly infra is coming in place .. next to South delhi ...near to all major Delhi points , Noida and GGn ....HOW IT CAN COME DOWN!!!!


    Bhiwadi : Itself a booming industrial town with HONDA plant operational, along with new 3000crores industrial packages .. just 35kms from GGN central ... and prices are almost 70% less than that of gurgaon ... how can it go down!!!

    Yumana Expresway I can understand due to litigation n low industry in G noida .... can become stable or increase at low pace ... but certainly wont go down .....

    IMAGINARY THREAD I WOULD SAY
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  • Somebody badly looking for quick publicity and for that he has written crap of predictions.

    Noida Eway is unaffordable because of too much supply and Gurgaon is not. What crap?
    I mean I would rather take my doodhwaala's prediction more seriously than this.
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  • Well, someone is taking some time out to logically let us know how he sees the future. Feel free to agree or disagree and challenge any assumptions behind the assertions.

    Or ignore the thread altogether.

    I really dont see the need to come down this hard on the poster and to get personal.

    This just makes the forum a little unpleasant.

    Rest upto you.

    Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 2
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  • Thanx Mr Venky and dont worry about crap guys on the fourm who have no work but to criticize others.
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  • Originally Posted by TheGuru
    without any basis to support all this, a better subject for this thread is - Speculations for India in 2013


    All prediction is speculation.

    Why not check out the detailed post for some of the basis.
    CommentQuote