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https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/other-forums/general-real-estate-discussion/12842-long-term-predictions-2011-2012-2013-and-now-2014/page12?t=15139&page=12

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Summary is below:

Predictions for 2013:

1. Stocks up. Possibly 25% return can be expected. Sensex 25000. Main propelling drivers will be some governance improvement and US climbing over the fiscal cliff (happened already after I wrote this) and unleashing another round of liquidity. Stocks should remain steadily up throughout from now till 2014 budget at least. SIP should continue and any dips should be used to buy.

2. Best sectors: cyclical and infrastructure, construction, cement, banks.

3. Avoid: FMCG and durables because of saturation and belt tightening and overvalued share prices.

4. Bonds: Mild 0.25 % fall in Repo rates is the best that can be expected. RBI unlikely to reduce further. Returns are not enough to justify eschewing stocks in favour of bonds – so if you are overweight bonds, sell now and shift to stocks.

5. FD: Returns of 8% plus will continue. Best safe and high returns available. At least 30% should be here or in PF.

6. Real estate: Stagnant markets are likely. No need to increase exposure at this juncture – but also no need to sell existing investments – hold what you already have.

7. Best RE market (for those underexposed to RE currently) for 2013 is likely to be Bangalore, Chennai, Chandigarh, Bhubaneshwar and certain locations of Mumbai – although 2014 will be better for Mumbai than 2013 on the back of good stock market performance.

8. Steady markets will be Gurgaon flats, NOIDA extension, Jaipur, Lucknow, Coimbatore, Mangalore, Kolkata, most of Mumbai, Pune and Dehradun.

9. Falling or steady with slight downward trend type of markets will be in NOIDA central, Kundli, Delhi builder floors and Lal Dora, Gurgaon plots, Dwarka expressway, NOIDA expressway, Yamuna Expressway, Faridabad, Bhiwadi/Daruhera, Neemrana.

10. Gold: Stagnant prices. Rupee strengthening will wipe out the returns of the fiscal cliff being climbed.

11. Dollar: Weak at 51-53 levels for most of the year.

12. Oil: Weak. NYMEX 85-90. Brent 100-110. Not much movement

13. RBI repo: maximum 0.25% cut.

Caveats:

1. Govt falls. This will kill the Rupee, Real estate and stock markets. Gold will shoot up. Same effect as war = do the same things, sell stocks, bonds and buy gold.

2. War involving us, Pak, China, South Korea, Argentina or Iran: Same results as above.

ASSETS FOR INDIA:

Asset of 2013 = stocks

Asset of the decade = Real estate

Asset of the next 3 decades = stocks

Asset to avoid in 2013 = gold.

Asset to avoid in the next decade = gold. With 2014/15/16 being short term exception as detailed above. You can avoid gold altogether and ride out disturbances in FD plus RE also.

Asset to avoid in next 3 decades = gold. It will extinguish as asset after 2018 or so.

Value is what humans place on a thing – if a thing is prized, it is priced high. If a thing is no longer prized, it will not be priced. Not even gold.
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  • I work for IT MNC and trust me there are less jobs getting moved to India.. Specially from US..

    Yes i agree with Venky sir that FII borrow from Fed, However there are two type of FII one with big name which borrow from Fed and invest in indian stock market or property market, Now second type of FII are which are unknown and they usually invest via Mauritius route... Here second type of FII are more important than first one...:P

    I am not stock guru or Investment banker but i feel during Mid 2013 $ would come to 43-45 levels and gold would be coming back to 24-25K..... Investing in new property would be not good idea right now.. Someone should wait till 2014.....
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  • Venky,

    Took me 10 minutes to read the post, excellently written, effort and content is more important atleast for me. Predictions/Assumptions whatever we may call may be right or wrong but that doesnt matter, no body is a guru or an expert here including u and me, if some bench warming keyboard junking ranters think they are, then let them be, they've got a lot of time.:D

    Great effort and good directional post as usual. Keep it up. :bab (56):
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  • Originally Posted by Munish Malhautra
    Venky,

    Took me 10 minutes to read the post, excellently written, effort and content is more important atleast for me. Predictions/Assumptions whatever we may call may be right or wrong but that doesnt matter, no body is a guru or an expert here including u and me, if some bench warming keyboard junking ranters think they are, then let them be, they've got a lot of time.:D

    Great effort and good directional post as usual. Keep it up. :bab (56):


    Venky, you now got the fan certification, now you dont need to post any logic for any of your conjectures.
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  • Originally Posted by TheGuru
    Venky, you now got the fan certification, now you dont need to post any logic for any of your conjectures.


    wah wah ... sahee hai ... Guruji logic ki baat kar rahey hai ... :D
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  • Originally Posted by shaitaan
    wah wah ... sahee hai ... Guruji logic ki baat kar rahey hai ... :D



    nahi samjhoge.......tumhaari galti nahin hai...only if god was little more kind to you
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  • Originally Posted by TheGuru
    nahi samjhoge.......tumhaari galti nahin hai...only if god was little more kind to you


    God is equally kind to everone, my dear friend, eh tumahari galti hai ..:D
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  • Originally Posted by shaitaan
    God is equally kind to everone, my dear friend, eh tumahari galti hai ..:D



    ohhh then despite the kindness by god......
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  • Venky bhai .. GOOD JOB TO TAKE THIS INITIATIVE

    bhai log many of you are too emotional and sentimental .. Venky bhai ne apna point of view diya hai w.r.t 2013 .. take it with grain of salt and you are most welcome to share yours .. DIL PE MAT LE YAAR

    I will add one of my prediction for 2013-2023 (10 yrs), US economy will go down, China will be UP and India will be slightly UP

    :bab (59):
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  • Lagta hai shaitaan G and guru G watched OMG last night.....:D
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  • Originally Posted by TheGuru
    lets take the ones related to macroeconomic indicators

    1. indian stocks up 25% from current level of 19500
    11. dollar - weak, stable at 51-53
    12. oil - weak, prices stable at current levels
    13. indian interest rates stable at current levels


    Will write on stocks tomorrow when I leave m.obile and reach desktop. Cant really type on a tiny screen
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  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    Will write on stocks tomorrow when I leave m.obile and reach desktop. Cant really type on a tiny screen


    The inflow from foreign FII (except Mauritius route) has probably decreased. The overall macro economic indicators may not appear strong and it may be quite possible that rupee could further depreciate to Rs 60 (that is 1 dollar equals 60 INR) in the short term. Would this bring any change to realty market this year or next year.
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  • Venky,
    Did you consider 2014 General elections? 2013 is the year before election and govt policies in 2013 will be primarily driven by elections.
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  • Even after reading this thread I am thinking of buying a parrot and tarot Card or taking some astrology lessons and doing such predictions.

    Well, bottom line is if India's economy stay good, we can expect real estate/ senses/ dollar rates to be in moving well. If recession hits India, then no place is recession proof, be it Gurgaon, Delhi, Pune, noida, KUndli or Bhiwadi or any other.
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  • Reasons for a stock uptick in 2013:

    1. Low valuations: Removing HUL and ITC, PE ratio of Sensex closer to 10 than 15. Sense-x as a whole also close to lower band of PER.
    2. Good inflow of FII is expected due to QE4. FII which are long only will pick up lower valued floating stock
    3. Moribund returns from RE in GGN and Mumbai will turn incremental money into stocks
    4. Most people with good salaries already into multiple RE. They will turn incremental salaries into stock.
    5. Sellers in stock emerged after 19000 sense-x. Most of the sellers are out of the market making it oversold.
    6. Of the three main categories, individuals are out of the market. Domestic funds are fully invested. LIC and others are already sitting on cash generated at sense-x19000 and are unlikely to sell more. FII are fully deployed for 2012 and are likely to buy in 2013. So if FII are buying and individuals can only buy and cannot sell much, markets can only stay the same or go up.
    7. I expect markets to go up till budget based on FII.
    8. I expect a "good" budget. Since conditions will go southwards very fast if a "bad" budget is placed. Despite the populist parts, conditions for business would improve.
    9. I expect a feel good rally which will draw individuals into the market.
    10. Since individuals are out of the market for 4 years now and the people who burned their hands are out of the stock market, a new pool of people who will buy is in place.
    11. Conditions are therefore ripe for a good market.
    12. Hence my expectation of 25000 for the year.

    A lot of other conditions I have decided to ignore because in my opinion, they are only distractors and will not influence the market. So deficit, balance of payments are two big things I have decided to ignore.

    Hence my prediction.Another reason is just gut instinct on what I think will happen. That cannot be put into words.

    I really dont want to waste 20-30 minutes justifying each and every one of my predictions. So I wont.

    You can take it or leave it. I will let 2014 evaluate my predictions.
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