Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....
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  • 25 yrs ? thats 5 yrs




    where is the 25 yrs rise ??


    thats just 5 yrs ......

    And that too less then 2 times ...

    whatever was coming in 100 started coming in 185

    Here

    whats coming in 1300 is coming now in 5000 - Aundh

    You wish to support irrational exuberance
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  • Originally Posted by frugality
    where is the 25 yrs rise ??


    thats just 5 yrs ......

    And that too less then 2 times ...

    whatever was coming in 100 started coming in 185

    Here

    whats coming in 1300 is coming now in 5000 - Aundh

    You wish to support irrational exuberance



    I dont wish to support anything. I found some interesting analysis hence shared with the forum. I dont have to necessarily agree with it.

    For that matter you know what in 19th century prices in Melbourne increased by 20 times in a period of 2-3 weeks and never ever corrected to that level again. And Australia has abundant land and very less population. So history is full with examples of these kind of meteoric rises.
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  • Stoxxx,
    Just look at the graph which u pasted from that site. The editor there looks like a fool. You also have made a typical journalistic comment 'i found something and shared'. At least spend 2 mins to analyze. there is no sign of 25 sustained increase in the graph anywhere.


    Originally Posted by stoxxx
    I dont wish to support anything. I found some interesting analysis hence shared with the forum. I dont have to necessarily agree with it.

    For that matter you know what in 19th century prices in Melbourne increased by 20 times in a period of 2-3 weeks and never ever corrected to that level again. And Australia has abundant land and very less population. So history is full with examples of these kind of meteoric rises.
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  • one would be naive to think that the prices will double or go up by 30-40% from here. most of the flats in good areas in pune are beyond double-income families' reach anyway. if they appreciate from here, who will buy those homes? i reckon property prices will correct in about a year and then pick up again but not beyond what they are today if you adjust inflation. seriously, who here thinks that a 1000 sq ft rat hole in wakad will go for 1 cr in another 3/4 years? and who will buy it? a couple in cognizant earning 15/20 lacs (combined) per year?

    i also don't believe that the prices will crash and you will get a flat in baner for 2500 rs/sq ft as the folks in the other thread believe. correction? yes. crash? NO.
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  • Originally Posted by Manoos
    Stoxxx,
    Just look at the graph which u pasted from that site. The editor there looks like a fool. You also have made a typical journalistic comment 'i found something and shared'. At least spend 2 mins to analyze. there is no sign of 25 sustained increase in the graph anywhere.


    Remember that chart is inflation adjusted.....so may be in nominal terms the prices went up. I admitted that I didn't look at the chart seriously. Anyway didnt see that kind of analysis when people post unrelented bearish newslinks.
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  • Originally Posted by Vinod Gupte
    one would be naive to think that the prices will double or go up by 30-40% from here. most of the flats in good areas in pune are beyond double-income families' reach anyway. if they appreciate from here, who will buy those homes? i reckon property prices will correct in about a year and then pick up again but not beyond what they are today if you adjust inflation. seriously, who here thinks that a 1000 sq ft rat hole in wakad will go for 1 cr in another 3/4 years? and who will buy it? a couple in cognizant earning 15/20 lacs (combined) per year?

    i also don't believe that the prices will crash and you will get a flat in baner for 2500 rs/sq ft as the folks in the other thread believe. correction? yes. crash? NO.


    Remember people said same thing about Aundh about 7-8 years ago, about Baner 2-3 years back....so you never know.....

    Markets can remain irrational for a long long time.....

    I am not justifying anywhere high prices ....have never done....

    Just saying that dont try to time the market. It is highly unpredictable. Very thing that people think impossible, market has a habit of showing nasty surprises by making those happen.

    So I am neither bull nor bear ....I just follow some simple rules which I've quoted elsewhere.....I just get annoyed with perma bears since they walk around as if they can predict and even control the market....

    For a meaningful discussion we need to have open mind....

    As for correction it may or may not happen but if it happens then I'll look at that as further buying opportunity. But my life doesnt depend on it happennig or not.

    I am a common investor who doesn't take big punts. I spread my investment, don't try to time the market and live within my means.

    Those who are gung-ho bearish can open massive shorts in RE stocks. Walk the talk and not just come up with 1000s of filmsy wishful reasons for falls in market.
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx


    Markets can remain irrational for a long long time.....


    Just saying that dont try to time the market. It is highly unpredictable. Very thing that people think impossible, market has a habit of showing nasty surprises by making those happen.

    So I am neither bull nor bear ....I just follow some simple rules which I've quoted elsewhere.....I just get annoyed with perma bears since they walk around as if they can predict and even control the market....

    For a meaningful discussion we need to have open mind....

    As for correction it may or may not happen but if it happens then I'll look at that as further buying opportunity. But my life doesnt depend on it happennig or not.

    I am a common investor who doesn't take big punts. I spread my investment, don't try to time the market and live within my means.

    Those who are gung-ho bearish can open massive shorts in RE stocks. Walk the talk and not just come up with 1000s of filmsy wishful reasons for falls in market.



    Originally Posted by stoxxx

    I spread my investment, don't try to time the market and live within my means.


    Which market are you talking about ?

    RE Stocks or RE Investments.....

    95% of forum user cannot buy RE Investments in SIP format ...
    (they don't have 100 - 500 Cr, thinking for overall buying of 30 flats... I will buy some at peak also, some already I bought in yr 2004 etc)

    if you have .. you are at wrong forum .... :)

    and End User RE market is unpredictable ?
    well since Q12009 its going just one way..... UP....
    so I consider that as predictable..... :o


    And timing ... it can very well be done .....this event(2008) has been consider by many economists as Outlier .... many people missed the BUS .... bcoz the bus is going to breakdown soon... thats destined to..

    and by pushing on the phrase by many "2009 you missed the bus" I feel naive buyers are being pushed into the fire....

    well many "SO called Harvard / Top 1 % brainy people" cannot make right decision at 2008 slide ... bcoz jobs were at stake ..... and they goofed up big time ...

    that collision which was averted .... Goods Train went away from track to avoid bus ... now its on a track to hit the station ...... many are just seeing the bus being saved .... what about the station which is full of thousand of people...


    And if you are talking about RE Stocks ..You want bears to short RE stock market ??.... why
    Just small correction ....

    Thats already near to its 52 week lows ....

    And from all time peak of 2007 its 80% down ....

    Investor class rate them at lowest level.... they are already bearish on this sector .....

    and if economy dwindles they will anyway go they way other sectors go .. just a bit more....

    See today's news .... now buyers are being denied loans for flat purchase....
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    Remember people said same thing about Aundh about 7-8 years ago, about Baner 2-3 years back....so you never know.....


    that is true. but what has fueled its growth is IT industry. i don't see IT growing in future as it has done in the last decade. and aundh being close to hinjewadi became a favorite location for people. i don't see hinjewadi taking any more IT load (and if it does, god save them) because of its embarrassing infrastructure. hinjewadi is already saturated. if Pune gets any more IT companies, it must be somewhere else. in that case, wakad area won't see that kind of appreciation.

    mumbai is a different ballgame altogether. mumbai is not dependent on any one sector for its growth and it is a land-locked city. of course, my guess is as good as yours. i am waiting and watching. some more correction, and i jump in.
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  • Originally Posted by frugality
    Which market are you talking about ?

    RE Stocks or RE Investments.....

    95% of forum user cannot buy RE Investments in SIP format ...
    (they don't have 100 - 500 Cr, thinking for overall buying of 30 flats... I will buy some at peak also, some already I bought in yr 2004 etc)

    if you have .. you are at wrong forum .... :)

    and End User RE market is unpredictable ?
    well since Q12009 its going just one way..... UP....
    so I consider that as predictable..... :o


    And timing ... it can very well be done .....this event(2008) has been consider by many economists as Outlier .... many people missed the BUS .... bcoz the bus is going to breakdown soon... thats destined to..

    and by pushing on the phrase by many "2009 you missed the bus" I feel naive buyers are being pushed into the fire....

    well many "SO called Harvard / Top 1 % brainy people" cannot make right decision at 2008 slide ... bcoz jobs were at stake ..... and they goofed up big time ...

    that collision which was averted .... Goods Train went away from track to avoid bus ... now its on a track to hit the station ...... many are just seeing the bus being saved .... what about the station which is full of thousand of people...


    And if you are talking about RE Stocks ..You want bears to short RE stock market ??.... why
    Just small correction ....

    Thats already near to its 52 week lows ....

    And from all time peak of 2007 its 80% down ....

    Investor class rate them at lowest level.... they are already bearish on this sector .....

    and if economy dwindles they will anyway go they way other sectors go .. just a bit more....

    See today's news .... now buyers are being denied loans for flat purchase....


    Well I am not an investor in RE anyway. I am only an end user.

    My investments are in other assets that a small time person like me can afford.

    I benefited from not trying to time my purchase which were well within my means. Even today when my personal circumstances demand more RE I'll buy irrespective of market situation as long as I can afford.

    If the RE crashes from here then RE stocks will dwindle further. They have only come down from euphoria of land bank valuation and due to governance issues. But still are priced for reasonable return on their normal business. With an impending crash these will crash to never before levels.

    I'll give you an example of Yell in the UK. This was once a darling of FTSE 100 (like our SEN) stock. It crashed by 90% in 2009 and people said oh well it already has crashed and everyone is negative will not fall much further. But those who thought the business was going to diminish further raised new shorts and the stock has crashed a further 90% from there. So there you go. If you truly believe in what you said you can still short RE stocks as they will fall further with any significant crash in RE market.
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  • Originally Posted by Vinod Gupte
    that is true. but what has fueled its growth is IT industry. i don't see IT growing in future as it has done in the last decade. and aundh being close to hinjewadi became a favorite location for people. i don't see hinjewadi taking any more IT load (and if it does, god save them) because of its embarrassing infrastructure. hinjewadi is already saturated. if Pune gets any more IT companies, it must be somewhere else. in that case, wakad area won't see that kind of appreciation.

    mumbai is a different ballgame altogether. mumbai is not dependent on any one sector for its growth and it is a land-locked city. of course, my guess is as good as yours. i am waiting and watching. some more correction, and i jump in.


    So actually you are supporting bull story of short supply with high demand. Prices go up in that situation.
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    So actually you are supporting bull story of short supply with high demand. Prices go up in that situation.

    54% flats are yet to be sold in Pune & Mumbai. Is this short supply ??
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  • Originally Posted by realacres
    54% flats are yet to be sold in Pune & Mumbai. Is this short supply ??


    whats the source of this? what does it actually mean - is this stock with builders? are these ready possession flats?
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    whats the source of this? what does it actually mean - is this stock with builders? are these ready possession flats?


    I am interested in this information as well.
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  • Originally Posted by realbee
    I am interested in this information as well.


    i think there was an article in today's Rediff for mumbai with exact data from registration offices.. i am searching for the link
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  • Originally Posted by compuwalah


    Now consider one more fact which I actually want to avoid to tell. This forum has many perma bears and they have a one agenda, turn away people from buying home. They somehow believe this is some kind of a social cause. Logic is if less people buy houses that will bring down prices. Let us leave the debate aside as how effective is that has been or will be. But in their mission they exaggerate few things and hide others that suits to give darker impression. Give them the best societies/apartment in Pune and they will successfully quote 20 problems with place. (I sometime wonder these people belong to some royal family or what and used to stay in places Lake Palace of Udaipur prior to coming to Pune). The reason to mention this is that people new to this forum should keep this in mind before giving in to these comment and do ground check themselves by talking to their contacts/friends.


    Well said. So called bears here give examples from lack of infra to reduction in FDI. As I call these are not bears but Crash Mongers and the philosophy is 'do nothing'. This is proven by the fact the 'RE bulls theory proven wrong' was started and vehemently argued in 2009 when it was one of the best times to buy RE. So even if prices come down these guys would gun for further price reduction.

    One of my colleague never invested in stocks since when SEN was at 2000. And he has been always waiting for SEN to come down / crash by 50% ever since it went above 14000. With his luck it actually came below 9000. But he did not buy because then he said fair value is 5000 and then kept siting various newspaper articles, links and the usual deflation stories. So when he should have bought he kept arguing how he was right and now again he is back to wishful thinking that it will come down again. I am not sure whether he will buy even if it crashes to those levels again as it has become his second nature to 'do nothing'. He spends most of his time discouraging people buying shares in Indian stock markets with stories ranging from INR appreciation to corporate governance issues. He has sizeable amount waiting in cash for past few years waiting to be deployed for best opportunity. Where as I think it is best to SIP and buy when you can, within your means whichever asset class. There are opportunities in every market.
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