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Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

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Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

Last updated: June 15 2016
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  • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

    Originally posted by Manoos View Post
    Stoxxx,
    Just look at the graph which u pasted from that site. The editor there looks like a fool. You also have made a typical journalistic comment 'i found something and shared'. At least spend 2 mins to analyze. there is no sign of 25 sustained increase in the graph anywhere.
    Remember that chart is inflation adjusted.....so may be in nominal terms the prices went up. I admitted that I didn't look at the chart seriously. Anyway didnt see that kind of analysis when people post unrelented bearish newslinks.
    When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

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    • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

      Originally posted by Vinod Gupte View Post
      one would be naive to think that the prices will double or go up by 30-40% from here. most of the flats in good areas in pune are beyond double-income families' reach anyway. if they appreciate from here, who will buy those homes? i reckon property prices will correct in about a year and then pick up again but not beyond what they are today if you adjust inflation. seriously, who here thinks that a 1000 sq ft rat hole in wakad will go for 1 cr in another 3/4 years? and who will buy it? a couple in cognizant earning 15/20 lacs (combined) per year?

      i also don't believe that the prices will crash and you will get a flat in baner for 2500 rs/sq ft as the folks in the other thread believe. correction? yes. crash? NO.
      Remember people said same thing about Aundh about 7-8 years ago, about Baner 2-3 years back....so you never know.....

      Markets can remain irrational for a long long time.....

      I am not justifying anywhere high prices ....have never done....

      Just saying that dont try to time the market. It is highly unpredictable. Very thing that people think impossible, market has a habit of showing nasty surprises by making those happen.

      So I am neither bull nor bear ....I just follow some simple rules which I've quoted elsewhere.....I just get annoyed with perma bears since they walk around as if they can predict and even control the market....

      For a meaningful discussion we need to have open mind....

      As for correction it may or may not happen but if it happens then I'll look at that as further buying opportunity. But my life doesnt depend on it happennig or not.

      I am a common investor who doesn't take big punts. I spread my investment, don't try to time the market and live within my means.

      Those who are gung-ho bearish can open massive shorts in RE stocks. Walk the talk and not just come up with 1000s of filmsy wishful reasons for falls in market.
      When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

        Originally posted by stoxxx View Post

        Markets can remain irrational for a long long time.....


        Just saying that dont try to time the market. It is highly unpredictable. Very thing that people think impossible, market has a habit of showing nasty surprises by making those happen.

        So I am neither bull nor bear ....I just follow some simple rules which I've quoted elsewhere.....I just get annoyed with perma bears since they walk around as if they can predict and even control the market....

        For a meaningful discussion we need to have open mind....

        As for correction it may or may not happen but if it happens then I'll look at that as further buying opportunity. But my life doesnt depend on it happennig or not.

        I am a common investor who doesn't take big punts. I spread my investment, don't try to time the market and live within my means.

        Those who are gung-ho bearish can open massive shorts in RE stocks. Walk the talk and not just come up with 1000s of filmsy wishful reasons for falls in market.

        Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
        I spread my investment, don't try to time the market and live within my means.
        Which market are you talking about ?

        RE Stocks or RE Investments.....

        95% of forum user cannot buy RE Investments in SIP format ...
        (they don't have 100 - 500 Cr, thinking for overall buying of 30 flats... I will buy some at peak also, some already I bought in yr 2004 etc)

        if you have .. you are at wrong forum ....

        and End User RE market is unpredictable ?
        well since Q12009 its going just one way..... UP....
        so I consider that as predictable.....


        And timing ... it can very well be done .....this event(2008) has been consider by many economists as Outlier .... many people missed the BUS .... bcoz the bus is going to breakdown soon... thats destined to..

        and by pushing on the phrase by many "2009 you missed the bus" I feel naive buyers are being pushed into the fire....

        well many "SO called Harvard / Top 1 % brainy people" cannot make right decision at 2008 slide ... bcoz jobs were at stake ..... and they goofed up big time ...

        that collision which was averted .... Goods Train went away from track to avoid bus ... now its on a track to hit the station ...... many are just seeing the bus being saved .... what about the station which is full of thousand of people...


        And if you are talking about RE Stocks ..You want bears to short RE stock market ??.... why
        Just small correction ....

        Thats already near to its 52 week lows ....

        And from all time peak of 2007 its 80% down ....

        Investor class rate them at lowest level.... they are already bearish on this sector .....

        and if economy dwindles they will anyway go they way other sectors go .. just a bit more....

        See today's news .... now buyers are being denied loans for flat purchase....
        Last edited July 8 2011, 02:44 PM.

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        • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

          Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
          Remember people said same thing about Aundh about 7-8 years ago, about Baner 2-3 years back....so you never know.....
          that is true. but what has fueled its growth is IT industry. i don't see IT growing in future as it has done in the last decade. and aundh being close to hinjewadi became a favorite location for people. i don't see hinjewadi taking any more IT load (and if it does, god save them) because of its embarrassing infrastructure. hinjewadi is already saturated. if Pune gets any more IT companies, it must be somewhere else. in that case, wakad area won't see that kind of appreciation.

          mumbai is a different ballgame altogether. mumbai is not dependent on any one sector for its growth and it is a land-locked city. of course, my guess is as good as yours. i am waiting and watching. some more correction, and i jump in.

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

            Originally posted by frugality View Post
            Which market are you talking about ?

            RE Stocks or RE Investments.....

            95% of forum user cannot buy RE Investments in SIP format ...
            (they don't have 100 - 500 Cr, thinking for overall buying of 30 flats... I will buy some at peak also, some already I bought in yr 2004 etc)

            if you have .. you are at wrong forum ....

            and End User RE market is unpredictable ?
            well since Q12009 its going just one way..... UP....
            so I consider that as predictable.....


            And timing ... it can very well be done .....this event(2008) has been consider by many economists as Outlier .... many people missed the BUS .... bcoz the bus is going to breakdown soon... thats destined to..

            and by pushing on the phrase by many "2009 you missed the bus" I feel naive buyers are being pushed into the fire....

            well many "SO called Harvard / Top 1 % brainy people" cannot make right decision at 2008 slide ... bcoz jobs were at stake ..... and they goofed up big time ...

            that collision which was averted .... Goods Train went away from track to avoid bus ... now its on a track to hit the station ...... many are just seeing the bus being saved .... what about the station which is full of thousand of people...


            And if you are talking about RE Stocks ..You want bears to short RE stock market ??.... why
            Just small correction ....

            Thats already near to its 52 week lows ....

            And from all time peak of 2007 its 80% down ....

            Investor class rate them at lowest level.... they are already bearish on this sector .....

            and if economy dwindles they will anyway go they way other sectors go .. just a bit more....

            See today's news .... now buyers are being denied loans for flat purchase....
            Well I am not an investor in RE anyway. I am only an end user.

            My investments are in other assets that a small time person like me can afford.

            I benefited from not trying to time my purchase which were well within my means. Even today when my personal circumstances demand more RE I'll buy irrespective of market situation as long as I can afford.

            If the RE crashes from here then RE stocks will dwindle further. They have only come down from euphoria of land bank valuation and due to governance issues. But still are priced for reasonable return on their normal business. With an impending crash these will crash to never before levels.

            I'll give you an example of Yell in the UK. This was once a darling of FTSE 100 (like our SEN) stock. It crashed by 90% in 2009 and people said oh well it already has crashed and everyone is negative will not fall much further. But those who thought the business was going to diminish further raised new shorts and the stock has crashed a further 90% from there. So there you go. If you truly believe in what you said you can still short RE stocks as they will fall further with any significant crash in RE market.
            When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

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            • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

              Originally posted by Vinod Gupte View Post
              that is true. but what has fueled its growth is IT industry. i don't see IT growing in future as it has done in the last decade. and aundh being close to hinjewadi became a favorite location for people. i don't see hinjewadi taking any more IT load (and if it does, god save them) because of its embarrassing infrastructure. hinjewadi is already saturated. if Pune gets any more IT companies, it must be somewhere else. in that case, wakad area won't see that kind of appreciation.

              mumbai is a different ballgame altogether. mumbai is not dependent on any one sector for its growth and it is a land-locked city. of course, my guess is as good as yours. i am waiting and watching. some more correction, and i jump in.
              So actually you are supporting bull story of short supply with high demand. Prices go up in that situation.
              When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
                So actually you are supporting bull story of short supply with high demand. Prices go up in that situation.
                54% flats are yet to be sold in Pune & Mumbai. Is this short supply ??
                If you are happy, you are successful.

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                  Originally posted by realacres View Post
                  54% flats are yet to be sold in Pune & Mumbai. Is this short supply ??
                  whats the source of this? what does it actually mean - is this stock with builders? are these ready possession flats?
                  When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                    Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
                    whats the source of this? what does it actually mean - is this stock with builders? are these ready possession flats?
                    I am interested in this information as well.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                      Originally posted by realbee View Post
                      I am interested in this information as well.
                      i think there was an article in today's Rediff for mumbai with exact data from registration offices.. i am searching for the link

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