Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....
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  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    And as far as your comments on recession thread, atleast I am providing some links for what I am saying. It is not like you who started this thread with just few words ...."Prices doubled from 2009...enough said" without any proof. Whereas only 40-50% hike has been observed in more than 90% projects of the Pune since 2009. I don't know what made you to start this tread.


    Point is most of them wont be able to buy even in recession as people become more afraid.....in reality recession is better for builders and their cronies....they acquire RE at a cheaper rate with their cash and use it in bull market.....

    most common men you purport to be representing will be worried with a recession and be badly affected.....buying a property in that environment will be the last thing on their mind when survival is tough....telling this from first hand experience......

    I repeat think before you wish because it may come true....
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  • Originally Posted by UncleScrooge
    Few of them:
    1. Reduction in number of properties registered.
    2. Increase in ready possession inventory.
    3. massive fall in RE stocks even when markets are stable.
    4. Increase in loan rate of interest.
    5. Loan eligibility reduced to 80% of cost from 85%.


    Thanks a good list. Some of this are potential reasons to trigger RE corrections but markets do not behave rationally necessarily.....

    need to see actual price correction signals....
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  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    One more signal

    Godrej Properties Q1 net falls 55% - Indian Express

    facts are getting changed, start changing mind.


    This a news...not a signal...what's the reason for fall in profit? do we have detailed analysis? one company's fall in net profit is not indicative of market falls and do they operate in Pune.....did they actually reduce the prices.....fall in net profit can be for many reasons including extra ordinary items....

    also from the same newslink

    Reacting to the results, shares of the company were trading 1.74 per cent up at Rs 814 on the BSE in the late afternoon trade.


    so this news item tells me nothing of substance let alone it acting as a signal for anything..
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  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    One more signal

    Godrej Properties Q1 net falls 55% - Indian Express

    facts are getting changed, start changing mind.


    this link tells nothing specific and is perhaps misleading at best....

    the company actually had strong growth in operating profit...it grew much stronger in terms of revenue and RE companies net profit depends on how much PE they are using and the interest rates , revenue recognition process etc.....

    for more details see Strong growth for Godrej Properties this year Adi Godrej

    he revenues have come in this quarter at Rs 136 crore and that’s versus just Rs 41 crore if you compare on a year on year (YoY) basis.


    The margins depend on how much of private equity we bring in during the quarter. Just like the first quarter last year, there was considerable amount of private equity in the fourth quarter as well.

    So actually, the operational profit was much higher this quarter than in the same quarter of last year. This private equity does not come every quarter uniformly; it varies from quarter to quarter. The best comparison is on an annual basis for that.
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    27 million global desis sent $55 billion to Indian economy in 2010

    Wonder where is this money going in to


    Forget about that figures boss.... do u have ny of ur frnd as NRI and earning abroad??? discuss with them about thier SAVINGs!!! and you will have more idea.....

    Gone are the days when NRIs come and buy whatever they want in a blink of an eye...with their Everest high savings and rock bottom rates......

    understand the fact : salaries in other countries rise only 1-2 % a year, where as prices in india is raising around 20 % a year....an NRI earning 1L a month in 2001 would have reached to only 1.2L a month in 2011....

    and imagine what can be done in 1L of INR in 2001 and now in 2011 you cant even have a single bathroom(not bedroom!!!)

    at current rates even NRI would have to pay loans for 5 to 10 years or even more years...
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  • Originally Posted by arpit2k
    Bearish time, Bullish time, Market trends are not independent entities. They cannot come and go themselves. But they are driven by other factors and manupulated by people like us (same as in he case of stock exchange).
    As most of the poeple are not aware of facts, they follow others (called as bhed chaal) and justify their move by saying that we move as per market. Due to these unaware people, market manupulators play with their money and make huge profits. One more reason is that manupulators are united but not the people.

    But now people are getting united, not by choice but by constraint that buying home is simply out of budget. Such population is increasing who had plans to buy their own property but they cannot as manupulative prices are just beyond their reach. I myself know about half a dozen people who were just ready to buy home but prices jumps so high that they simply cancelled their plan.

    Now some members will say that if poeple cannot buy today then how will they do so in future when prices will further escalate?

    But I want to add here that similiar kind of arguments were given by stock exchange agents when BSE was around 22000. They said that next year it will be reaching 25000 and further it will cross 28000 mark. But we all know what happened later.

    So, the fact is that any kind of manupulation doesn't remain for long as this is the way market manupulators work : create a bubble, fool common man, book the profit and then sit quitely for some time. And this cycle goes on.


    Arpit, you have articulated well. I am one such person waiting and renting.
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  • I don not agree. I am an NRI getting double figure raise every year...

    I know a lot of NRIs earning 3-4 lakhs per month easily even at mid managment level

    Originally Posted by rajtjrll

    Forget about that figures boss.... do u have ny of ur frnd as NRI and earning abroad??? discuss with them about thier SAVINGs!!! and you will have more idea.....

    Gone are the days when NRIs come and buy whatever they want in a blink of an eye...with their Everest high savings and rock bottom rates......

    understand the fact : salaries in other countries rise only 1-2 % a year, where as prices in india is raising around 20 % a year....an NRI earning 1L a month in 2001 would have reached to only 1.2L a month in 2011....

    and imagine what can be done in 1L of INR in 2001 and now in 2011 you cant even have a single bathroom(not bedroom!!!)

    at current rates even NRI would have to pay loans for 5 to 10 years or even more years...
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  • Originally Posted by rajtjrll

    Forget about that figures boss.... do u have ny of ur frnd as NRI and earning abroad??? discuss with them about thier SAVINGs!!! and you will have more idea.....

    Gone are the days when NRIs come and buy whatever they want in a blink of an eye...with their Everest high savings and rock bottom rates......

    understand the fact : salaries in other countries rise only 1-2 % a year, where as prices in india is raising around 20 % a year....an NRI earning 1L a month in 2001 would have reached to only 1.2L a month in 2011....

    and imagine what can be done in 1L of INR in 2001 and now in 2011 you cant even have a single bathroom(not bedroom!!!)

    at current rates even NRI would have to pay loans for 5 to 10 years or even more years...

    100% Agreed...
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    Point is most of them wont be able to buy even in recession as people become more afraid.....in reality recession is better for builders and their cronies....they acquire RE at a cheaper rate with their cash and use it in bull market.....

    most common men you purport to be representing will be worried with a recession and be badly affected.....buying a property in that environment will be the last thing on their mind when survival is tough....telling this from first hand experience......

    I repeat think before you wish because it may come true....


    What was my point and what did you disucss? Let me ask in straight forward way, why did you start this thread? You have not yet given one single example where we can see property rates are doubled since 2009. It seems like you are very new in this RE field. Let me give you one real example which is directly related to me, then you may start thinking the RE sector from different point of view.

    My family bought one flat in 1994 for 2L Rs (sort of 1BHK, area less than 500 square feet). We sold that flat in 2005 for 2.25L Rs. So we got profit 25K in 11 years. I used to wonder on these days that why RE rates don't increase. Recently flat in same society was sold at around 18L (2010-2011). Did you understand something out of this, as expected you didn't. Let me make you understand. RE rates can only be increased if there is demand and most importantly if people (who have demand) can afford it. There has been demand of houses from end users since 1947, however after 1991 economic reforms people's affordability increases and so RE increases till 1995, however after 1995 and till 2005, affordability of people didn't increase that much, though demand was there but builder didn't see any bigger margin so that they can acquire land and build houses to get the profit. From 2004 onwards people have started earning more and increase in affordability was clearly visible from 2006 onwards, and so RE started increasing from 2005 to 2008. During recession, again affordability was hit and we saw slow down in each sector. Today in 2011, RE rates are already reached beyond the affordability of comman men, and I don't see affordability of comman men is going to be increased drastically in next 4-5 years (provided there is no recession in between). It seems like you still not able to accept the fact that todays world is dynamic and you can't sell 1 Rs thing for 10 Rs to the people who can't really afford to buy 5 Rs thing. Common man wake up.
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  • Originally Posted by amit001
    I don not agree. I am an NRI getting double figure raise every year...

    I know a lot of NRIs earning 3-4 lakhs per month easily even at mid managment level


    I think you are in elite group, so that you know more people like you. However truth is there are very few people like you who earn 3-4 L per month.
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  • At least for those of us in the USA, there are better investment options locally since the housing market bust. Bank owned properties can be had for very little money at low interest rates (30% down, but still), and they cash flow right away since people are preferring to rent rather than buy homes.

    Some of the newly arrived people with entry level incomes (the 3-4 lakh range) might not have learnt the ropes of the real estate business here, and may be tempted to invest in India. But even for them, the economics doesn't change, since rentals in India don't produce enough income to cover costs at current prices.
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  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    What was my point and what did you disucss? Let me ask in straight forward way, why did you start this thread? You have not yet given one single example where we can see property rates are doubled since 2009. It seems like you are very new in this RE field. Let me give you one real example which is directly related to me, then you may start thinking the RE sector from different point of view.

    My family bought one flat in 1994 for 2L Rs (sort of 1BHK, area less than 500 square feet). We sold that flat in 2005 for 2.25L Rs. So we got profit 25K in 11 years. I used to wonder on these days that why RE rates don't increase. Recently flat in same society was sold at around 18L (2010-2011). Did you understand something out of this, as expected you didn't. Let me make you understand. RE rates can only be increased if there is demand and most importantly if people (who have demand) can afford it. There has been demand of houses from end users since 1947, however after 1991 economic reforms people's affordability increases and so RE increases till 1995, however after 1995 and till 2005, affordability of people didn't increase that much, though demand was there but builder didn't see any bigger margin so that they can acquire land and build houses to get the profit. From 2004 onwards people have started earning more and increase in affordability was clearly visible from 2006 onwards, and so RE started increasing from 2005 to 2008. During recession, again affordability was hit and we saw slow down in each sector. Today in 2011, RE rates are already reached beyond the affordability of comman men, and I don't see affordability of comman men is going to be increased drastically in next 4-5 years (provided there is no recession in between). It seems like you still not able to accept the fact that todays world is dynamic and you can't sell 1 Rs thing for 10 Rs to the people who can't really afford to buy 5 Rs thing. Common man wake up.



    You must be on a different planet. You put some links with little or no content and were drawing misleading conclusions it was signalling RE correction. You havent bothered to respond to that did you.

    Since you cannot fight on facts you have resorted to personal attacks.

    Your example only proves my point that dont try to time or second guess the market. All your explanations are good in hindsight and a school going kid can tell you those. Point is no one could have predicted the extent and timing of these things.

    You have mistimed your sell and perhaps mistimed your buy in the hope of a meaninful correction.

    My point is quite relevant dont wish for recession just for RE correction. Buy when you can afford and buy for longer term. Dont overleverage. Buy when you are happy with it. Amen

    I am long term bullish on RE. Short term I cannot predict. But if market has meaningful correction I'll buy more. Is that too difficult to grasp.

    I dont spent my life on guessing and timing mr market. Market is far superior than one or a group of individuals.
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  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    I think you are in elite group, so that you know more people like you. However truth is there are very few people like you who earn 3-4 L per month.



    I think corrolary could be equally true. What amitoo1 is saying is true. If you are not earning 3-4 lakhs per month then dont bother going out of India. It is not worth it. Most white collar earners earn that much or more outside India.
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  • Originally Posted by amit001
    I don not agree. I am an NRI getting double figure raise every year...

    I know a lot of NRIs earning 3-4 lakhs per month easily even at mid managment level


    Where are you working in Zimbabwe!!!?

    double figure increase is even not possible in india, after certain levels and that too every year, take a break...
    economies are growing at a rate of just 1 to 2 % all around the developed world and you want a raise of 10-20% rise every year!!! there are deflation cases as well where salaries may even reduce....

    Me too an NRI and have lots of NRI friends...and sadely i dont see a double figure rise, I work in Bahrain..... ofcourse earnings are high for NRIs but i said SAVINGS!!!
    you spend hell lot of money in renting a place, food, tourism, gadgets, movies and everything....
    rates of RE is so high, NRI cant purchase what they want in just moments.....ofcourse you dont expect an NRI to come and purchase a 1 BHK in handewadi road and feel good to purchase RE in a moment....

    they will obvioiusly look for aundh and Deccan where they have to shell out crores of INR for just 3 BHK flats forget about a villa...
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