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Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

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Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

Last updated: June 15 2016
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  • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

    Originally posted by pcpune View Post
    By the way, today I landed a great deal at Croma Aundh, got a 40 inch 3d led - C version - Series 7 - - last piece available for 55K - the MRP is 1.3 lacs, and the SP was 90K - with a 3 year warranty.

    Samsung launched D versions last month, and hence I just pounched on this offer.

    Alas - real estate doesnt have such auctions - specially in Pune and in India - should I say - I foresee whats in the stocks....
    Good deal on the LED.

    I was planning to spend about 60,000 for a 42 inch LED - but not 3D. Waiting for the technology to stabilise - Edge seems to be the default standard now.

    Did you do any market research from which I might benefit?

    I agree with your earlier post on prices also. Also agree that 2014/15 is the latest to buy in RE before the next big bull run starts and prices run away from you.

    I personalyy believe in buying under construction flat under CLP plan. Expecting 3-5 years for delivery - you should buy after a crash and expect to make money after delivery + 3-4 years (one full RE cycle), definitely by delivery + 10-12 years (after 2 full RE cycles)

    In RE also great deals come your way during crashes. Many good deals were there in March to May 2009 - I got one.

    After the crash, you get average deals only, as available now. But they should also make money after one cycle.

    Currently, we are staring at an industrial recession. So RE prices will be flat for 1-2 years. No need for hurry.

    By 2014-15, we should be looking at an industrial plus RE bull market - like 2006-7 - which is when prices really shoot up.

    When the industrial cycle of 4 years and RE cycle of 7 years have a coincidental bull run, that is when you see extra-ordinary returns - in both stok and RE.
    Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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    • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

      Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
      I agree with your earlier post on prices also. Also agree that 2014/15 is the latest to buy in RE before the next big bull run starts and prices run away from you.
      Oh...so is 2014-15 the new timeline advised by the bears? Holi or Diwali? But yeah, safe bet now that it is 3-4 years from now. Won't have to hide like now where the prices are refusing to decrease.

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      • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

        Originally posted by pcpune View Post
        By the way, today I landed a great deal at Croma Aundh, got a 40 inch 3d led - C version - Series 7 - - last piece available for 55K - the MRP is 1.3 lacs, and the SP was 90K - with a 3 year warranty.
        Congrats man. Btw, how many goggles did you get alongwith the TV set. I have seen Samsung, VU, LG & & finally concluded that Bravia is the best of lot, but for 55k, yours is a good deal.
        If you are happy, you are successful.

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        • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

          Originally posted by pcpune View Post
          By the way, today I landed a great deal at Croma Aundh, got a 40 inch 3d led - C version - Series 7 - - last piece available for 55K - the MRP is 1.3 lacs, and the SP was 90K - with a 3 year warranty.

          Samsung launched D versions last month, and hence I just pounched on this offer.

          Alas - real estate doesnt have such auctions - specially in Pune and in India - should I say - I foresee whats in the stocks....
          You can get this price any day for said specs in Bangkok. But getting it in Pune is lottery.

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          • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

            Originally posted by nitesh321 View Post
            Oh...so is 2014-15 the new timeline advised by the bears? Holi or Diwali? But yeah, safe bet now that it is 3-4 years from now. Won't have to hide like now where the prices are refusing to decrease.
            You couldnt be more wrong. 2014/15 is the probable time for start of the next bull run.

            Right now is the bear phase - prices have already corrected 5-30% depending on the market/location/city.

            This is the bulls thread, the majority believe in long term bull phase for RE in India
            Last edited July 11 2011, 04:39 PM.
            Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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            • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

              Originally posted by pcpune View Post
              I dont know why the new members think 2 years passed of a slight increase in rates in 2009 was an excellent oppurtunity.

              I have been saying all the way - the rates WILL not drop or INCREASE more than 20-30% till 2014-2015 from 2008 rates.

              I consider the peak to be in 2007-2008, and with a 7-10 year RE estate cyle, inflation adjusted, if the price are similar or 20-30% higher to what they were in 2008, we should already seen a 50%+ reduction.

              Hence, there is no point to be a bull or a bear. You have to ask yourself 3 questions :

              1. What is your standard of living?
              2. Whether you have the more than enough cash/assets to own such a standard of living?
              3. Do you have the mind, and passion to be wealthy, or you are already wealthy, or you think owning is a house is the defination of wealth for you - and is the ultimate acheivement in life ?

              Persoanlly, I would have long bought a house in if I had 15-20 crores with me, a house for 1-2 crores which suits my standard of living currently.

              The problem is whatever I have and the loan I could stretch to afford - but then, I want to be in that league of 10-15-20 crores after few years, so that atleast I am left with some crores to invest and make more money.

              ALWAYS REMEMBER ONE RULE (marwadi rule) -

              MONEY ATTRACTS MORE MONEY !

              DEBT ATTRACTS MORE DEBT !

              Its your choice - and its a damn personal choice.
              If you dont have the mind and matter to "invest", and have the money to buy your - "standard of living house", just go for it.

              But, if you do a marwari hisab, 1 crore ka byaj hi aaj 10 lac hain per year, even if you pay 2-2.5 lacs in rent, you save 7.5 lacs per year. Whether the value will increase to 1.5 crores in 5 years - I and we agree - it will not happen.Hence, if a person just has 25 lacs + has decent salary - make that money count to increase it to about 50 lacs in 5 years -- with aim for atleast 10% return per year --- and then you could buy that 50 lac house....
              .....of course a person starting with 50 lacs capital shoudl try to to reach 1 crores......after 5 years....
              "Sahi kahyu Bhaaya"
              This can happen if people start respecting money. 2+ years slowdown coupled with high interest-rates can make this case.
              Last edited July 11 2011, 09:03 PM.

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              • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                Nope, this is the correct date!

                Originally posted by nitesh321 View Post
                Oh...so is 2014-15 the new timeline advised by the bears? Holi or Diwali? But yeah, safe bet now that it is 3-4 years from now. Won't have to hide like now where the prices are refusing to decrease.

                You got it wrong. Roundabout June 2016 is going to be the bottom of the bear market. From which there will be a long climb back to normalcy in the 2022 timeframe!

                cheers

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                • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                  Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                  You got it wrong. Roundabout June 2016 is going to be the bottom of the bear market. From which there will be a long climb back to normalcy in the 2022 timeframe!

                  cheers
                  Wow! You can predict till 2022!

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                    Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                    You got it wrong. Roundabout June 2016 is going to be the bottom of the bear market. From which there will be a long climb back to normalcy in the 2022 timeframe!

                    cheers
                    Do you mean right now is normal and will be so till 2016?

                    Right now is the crazy time - economies are already in recession and it looks like things are about to get much worse very soon.

                    Your prediction might be true for USA and Europe, but surely not for India - unless we are in a devastating nuclear war
                    Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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                    • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                      I dont know why we are going again into timeline discussions, please go back to my post - and if your answers to the 3 questions I asked is affirmative and thoughtful, you could make your own decision.

                      For me, Money is an instrument to make more money!

                      For some, Money is an instrument to buy a house!

                      I am willing to take more risk but for higher returns, in RE risk vs return is highly skewed in favor risk than returns.

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