Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    rental and buying are separate markets...

    you example of Alto only indicates that the inflation can bring on ridiculous valuations and that's why gold is going up....

    is gold affordable to everyone.....why can't gold correct?...if it is in demand then why can't be it infinite....why is gold more than double in last two years? has the end user demand for gold increased that much? does gold provide any operating revenue like rent etc?.....

    at any point for any product there are sellers and buyers......fear and greed....that makes the market.....and market decides the prices....not our whims and fancies....

    if everyone was a buyer with no sellers or all sellers but no buyers then there wont be a market.....


    Most of the demand right now is sitting on the fence . Demand vs Supply theory applies in free economy ; right now what we're witnessing is artificial price manipulation .
    There will be tremendous resistance to lower prices . For individuals , its time to watch rather than risk ur lifetime investment by buying under pressure .
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    because car is seen as durable consumer goods and not as a long term self use / investment product....

    bubbles happen in assets / investments not in consumer goods.....

    do you know the concept of elasticity of demand....in consumer goods that is at highest point....that means the impact of any price movement is felt to a great extent and much quick in those goods....

    one really needs to understand basics


    Kya baat hai mere dost, you have shown that how little you know about economics. PED (you may need to search in google for full form) has nothing to do with creating bubble. Even you will be surprised to know that PED can be positive in some kind of goods ( Veblen and Giffen goods, as usual search in google for more details).

    Bubbles can be created in any kind of things, what it needs is greed of like minded investors in one particular area which is directly related to common man.
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    rental and buying are separate markets...

    you example of Alto only indicates that the inflation can bring on ridiculous valuations and that's why gold is going up....

    is gold affordable to everyone.....why can't gold correct?...if it is in demand then why can't be it infinite....why is gold more than double in last two years? has the end user demand for gold increased that much? does gold provide any operating revenue like rent etc?.....

    at any point for any product there are sellers and buyers......fear and greed....that makes the market.....and market decides the prices....not our whims and fancies....

    if everyone was a buyer with no sellers or all sellers but no buyers then there wont be a market.....


    You are contradicting yourself here, if you say that inflation can bring the ridiculous prices, that means you acknowledge the fact that current RE prices are owing to inflation (which can go up and down if RE prices are a result of that).

    Look at historical prices of gold, it has always gone up and down. If you really want to compare Gold with RE than RE should also go down at some point just like Gold has (and will).

    Rentals and buying are separate markets? really? One would get a sense looking at the posts here that people who do not like the current (jacked up) prices prefer to rent. Those who can not afford to buy, rent too. Unless renting refers to something else, not a housing property, they compete in the same realm. Very vague statement to make.

    Coming back to your gold analogy, it is completely incorrect in terms of liquidity both RE and gold offers. Gold is used for liquidity. Gold can be sold bad economic conditions, try selling your inflated priced house. RE is not a currency substitute, gold is.
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  • Originally Posted by shahkushan
    You are contradicting yourself here, if you say that inflation can bring the ridiculous prices, that means you acknowledge the fact that current RE prices are owing to inflation (which can go up and down if RE prices are a result of that).

    Look at historical prices of gold, it has always gone up and down. If you really want to compare Gold with RE than RE should also go down at some point just like Gold has (and will).

    Rentals and buying are separate markets? really? One would get a sense looking at the posts here that people who do not like the current (jacked up) prices prefer to rent. Those who can not afford to buy, rent too. Unless renting refers to something else, not a housing property, they compete in the same realm. Very vague statement to make.

    Coming back to your gold analogy, it is completely incorrect in terms of liquidity both RE and gold offers. Gold is used for liquidity. Gold can be sold bad economic conditions, try selling your inflated priced house. RE is not a currency substitute, gold is.


    show me where I said that RE prices will never go down....it can and wll at some point...

    in fact it is the perma bear camp on this board that is only taking one view that prices will always go down and they have not yet....but there will be correction in the market at some time no one knows when and usually it comes when it is leas expected.....thats why the saying that bubble bursts when last of the bears throw the towel.....

    point is no one knows 'when'.....you could either be ahead or before the market in predicting the fall or rise....timing is extremely difficult....

    RE is not gold is clear....it is a different asset class....so lets not confuse that....point was all assets can go up or down.....


    rental and RE are different markets in short term is proven by the divergence in rents and prices in the market....

    problem with permabears is that they are always saying prices will go down...and thats where the broken clock being right twice a day analogy comes in to picture....

    but I can assure one thing that one day you will be right if you just keep saying that prices will go down.....so keep that up
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx


    problem with permabears is that they are always saying prices will go down...and thats where the broken clock being right twice a day analogy comes in to picture....

    but I can assure one thing that one day you will be right if you just keep saying that prices will go down.....so keep that up


    LOL :D . Good one stox3. Keep that down or keep that up that it will go down. :D
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  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    Kya baat hai mere dost, you have shown that how little you know about economics. PED (you may need to search in google for full form) has nothing to do with creating bubble. Even you will be surprised to know that PED can be positive in some kind of goods ( Veblen and Giffen goods, as usual search in google for more details).

    Bubbles can be created in any kind of things, what it needs is greed of like minded investors in one particular area which is directly related to common man.


    you seem to be confused completely....you seem to have googled those terms after reading my post....it will take years for you to truly understand those terms...
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    show me where I said that RE prices will never go down....it can and wll at some point...

    RE is not gold is clear....it is a different asset class....so lets not confuse that....point was all assets can go up or down.....

    rental and RE are different markets in short term is proven by the divergence in rents and prices in the market....

    but I can assure one thing that one day you will be right if you just keep saying that prices will go down.....so keep that up


    Just like permanent bears your clock is stuck on demand and supply(which again, to borrow a phrase, my friend, will prove to be right twice a day), it is like someone just started reading economics and wants to apply the recently read concept everywhere.

    That rentals are not increasing, 30/40 % flats are investor blocked, itself flags down the 'demand is too high and supply is not enough' argument. To answer that you make a vague statement like "rentals and buying are different markets".

    To justify the inflated RE rates you quote gold, then immediately make a statement like "RE is not gold is clear....it is a different asset class....so lets not confuse that...."

    Most of the permanent bears (as you refer them) have at one point or another, said that If you can afford, just go and buy it. However, you are inclined to take a selective post and rant about it. That can't be really helped. :D
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    you seem to be confused completely....you seem to have googled those terms after reading my post....it will take years for you to truly understand those terms...


    You are forcing me to go into personal again. I have studied for years and for considerable duration from the best professors in the India at that time, if it takes years for me to understand what is elasticity, then I don't know how much time you will take to understand it. And by the way, which college did you attend for getting you degree, if you have any?
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    Equally those who missed the boat keep forever justifying how their decision not to buy was good.....their language is mostly 'should'

    this should happen....that should happen......name calling etc...

    stoxxx

    we are very much happy that you must(and not should) have bought house at much cheaper price and you didn't missed the (loaded) boat.

    but if possible respect the need of others too.
    What about those people who just started earning and looking for affordable home to buy ?
    they didn't miss the boat or bus or truck or train as you think...as they were not earning...

    do you mean to say then they should have bought home when they were in junior college or so ?

    be sensible to others..
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  • Originally Posted by truptid
    stoxxx

    we are very much happy that you must(and not should) have bought house at much cheaper price and you didn't missed the (loaded) boat.

    but if possible respect the need of others too.
    What about those people who just started earning and looking for affordable home to buy ?
    they didn't miss the boat or bus or truck or train as you think...as they were not earning...

    do you mean to say then they should have bought home when they were in junior college or so ?

    be sensible to others..


    I can understand your point, and I have said earlier this is just beginning, you will see more and more people (every year 10L students come out of college, only few get job of 20-25K per month salary, others less than 10K) getting irritated by investors in RE sector.
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  • what is the point of blaming investors or builders, if any of us had an opportunity i'm sure each of us would do the same thing, it is not as if investors are doing anything wrong, they are just maximizing opportunities available to them

    It is a free world, everybody has their right to their opinion, each one to his variables ! in the end market will always dictate, but it does seem weird that there is a pushback w.r.t bearish opinion this infact could be a indicator for all those on the sidelines :)
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  • Originally Posted by spmohan
    what is the point of blaming investors or builders, if any of us had an opportunity i'm sure each of us would do the same thing, it is not as if investors are doing anything wrong, they are just maximizing opportunities available to them

    It is a free world, everybody has their right to their opinion, each one to his variables ! in the end market will always dictate, but it does seem weird that there is a pushback w.r.t bearish opinion this infact could be a indicator for all those on the sidelines :)


    I concur. Anyhow, I am not blaming investors here at all. However, we need to keep in mind that significant portion of RE investors in India, opt to invest in RE to launder black money. The cash hungry builders provide the best avenue to safely park this money. Improving gains is not their primary motive. These are not your run of the mill honest entrepreneur / business tycoon / very successful at his job people.

    For a smart investor, who is looking for significant gains, RE is not that attractive avenue (albeit slightly safer). At best, RE returns are comparable at to returns from equities (numerous studies available on net) and other traded instruments, and if things don't go well, one ends up with lower returns, higher maintenance, liquidation difficulties.

    Just My two cents (or paisas).:o
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  • Realty index tumbles on RBI rate hike

    Realty index tumbles on RBI rate hike

    Shares of real estate companies were trading lower following a more than expected 50-bps rate hike by the central bank, several dealers said. Unexpected move by RBI to raise rate by 50 bps has impacted all interest-rate-sensitive sectors, including real estate, said Jigar Lodaya, assistant vice president of advisory services at Sharekhan. At 12:13 pm. the real estate index of the NSE was down 3.7 per cent from 0.15 higher before the rate hike. Shares of Unitech , DLF , Sobha Developers , HDIL , Indiabulls Real Estate, and were down 2-4 per cent.
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  • Originally Posted by shahkushan
    I concur. Anyhow, I am not blaming investors here at all. However, we need to keep in mind that significant portion of RE investors in India, opt to invest in RE to launder black money. The cash hungry builders provide the best avenue to safely park this money. Improving gains is not their primary motive. These are not your run of the mill honest entrepreneur / business tycoon / very successful at his job people.

    For a smart investor, who is looking for significant gains, RE is not that attractive avenue (albeit slightly safer). At best, RE returns are comparable at to returns from equities (numerous studies available on net) and other traded instruments, and if things don't go well, one ends up with lower returns, higher maintenance, liquidation difficulties.

    Just My two cents (or paisas).:o

    in the long term which is more than 15-20 years...RE will hardly give 8 to 10 % return while equity will give more than that...

    there are lacs of proven articles and study...
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    So there is invisible correction that no one but a select and lucky few would notice.....


    yes.... and the lucky few ones are the ones who can bargain with the builders. I have personally experienced this. You can name it anything (correction or bargaining) but the end result is the buyer got RE cheaper than the builder advertised rates.

    Actually they are not lucky folks but clever and rational folks who tried to get most out of their money and were successful. They were prepared to walk out of a transaction if the product they were buying was not worth the money and finally they all (i have at least 5 friends who booked in 5 different areas in Pune) are/were end users.

    also many builders are giving freebees these days.. this is a direct reduction in price if one is going to spend money on it anyway (e.g. solar water, modular kitchen, sometimes even car, free parking, sometimes furniture etc).


    it is naive to say that the rates will reduce with people awareness and education.......


    Actually this is where education comes in picture... once more and more people are aware that RE transactions are builder-political nexus, they will become more cautious. Earlier builder used to ask only some amt in black but recently that % is going higher. So when people see the risks, they are getting cautious and some are backing out. People advice each other not to pay money in cash and make builder accountable for the money paid. These are some steps which are resulting in reduction of RE sales.


    it is a function of demand and supply period.....


    sigh... this is applicable when the inventory is full and demand is still there... currently demand is there but so is inventory. Numerous reports are available on builder inventories. You can even check big townships in the evening for number of flats having lights.

    Institutional investors literally jump on businesses where they have a high demand and less supply and when the product is popular among masses. RE is a basic need but still the financiers ((most leading banks) are backing out. This itself says something.

    just repeating what everyone has said 'Demand may not be there at atrocious prices' .. Many of the ultra luxurious apartments in Mumbai have no buyers and Mumbai definitely has limited land supply and better infrastructure (south Mumbai).


    if these people did not have money or willingness there would not be demand and market would correct.....but as long as they have accessiveble money and there is a need there would be demand......price is a function of demand and supply.....


    Education comes here again... people do not have money... but they are brainwashed to think that they have money... by over-leveraging... families spend their lifetime investments and even ancestral properties / valuables just to make a downpayment and get prepared to pay at least twice the (already inflated) market cost due to interest payments.

    They need to be educated on financial discipline and made aware of what they can really afford going forward. How can they be prepared where the sudden need for cash may arise (accedents, illness, natural disasters, etc).

    this is more important for the folks who have started earning recently and entering in the market for the first time... as someone has said, they havent missed the boat but they were simply not earning at that time.
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