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Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

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Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

Last updated: June 15 2016
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  • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

    Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
    Actually you have demonstrated the importance of understanding RE cycle. YOu bought on the peak of the previous cycle and sold on the trough of the next cycle.

    Prices definitely have doubled in last 2 years. I booked a flat in 2009 May at 1900 psf, now price in the area is supposedly 3800 listed by the same builder. That is a doubling, isnt it?

    Previous cycle ended its peak in 2007. Next peak is expected in 2014 or 2015. Right now we are probably heading into peaking of the interest rate hikes in next few months (unless extra-ordinary events come when all bets are off).

    The current moderation in prices is a buying opportunity.

    Sensible option is to buy well before the peak of the next cycle - after which prices will reach another orbit and will become unaffordable for almost everyone.

    Right now, many are able to afford the 1-2 crores needed to buy a flat. In 2016 or so, you might not be able to do so because of the effects of hyper-inflation and Rupee depreciation
    Sir if you are saying prices are doubled even in any perticular specific one project then I am ready to accept it. However I was under impression on following things.

    1) Prices in PS in 2009 were 2800, now they are 3900-4200. (% increase around 40%)

    2) Prices in Wakad in 2009 were 2500, now they are 3700-3800

    3) Prices in Aundh in 2009 were 4200, now they are 5500

    4) Prices in Pashan, Baner in 2009 were 3400-3500, now they are 4600-4700

    5) Prices in Boat club road in 2009 were 7000-8000, now you do better know current prices.

    6) Prices in Magarpatta in 2009 were 3500-4000, now they are 5000-5500.

    I could see prices in Talegoan or any area 80KM away from Pune were in the range of 1500-2000 in 2009, and now prices are in the range of 3000 Rs.

    I still think that prices are only increased by 40%, whereas blue chip stocs like L&T ( & others) have increased more than 120%. Like L&T was in the range of 800 in 2009 and now it is in the range of 1800. Increase of prices by 40% in 2.5 years means effectively you get the profit of not more than 10%.

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    • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

      Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
      You must be on a different planet. You put some links with little or no content and were drawing misleading conclusions it was signalling RE correction. You havent bothered to respond to that did you.

      Since you cannot fight on facts you have resorted to personal attacks.

      Your example only proves my point that dont try to time or second guess the market. All your explanations are good in hindsight and a school going kid can tell you those. Point is no one could have predicted the extent and timing of these things.

      You have mistimed your sell and perhaps mistimed your buy in the hope of a meaninful correction.

      My point is quite relevant dont wish for recession just for RE correction. Buy when you can afford and buy for longer term. Dont overleverage. Buy when you are happy with it. Amen

      I am long term bullish on RE. Short term I cannot predict. But if market has meaningful correction I'll buy more. Is that too difficult to grasp.

      I dont spent my life on guessing and timing mr market. Market is far superior than one or a group of individuals.
      I have already gave you lecture on long term in one other thread. There is nothing like long term which gives you profit, actually it is reverse the duration which gives you profit is called long term, it is totally relative. 2L in gold or FD can give you more return than RE in your so called long term.

      When you say you are long term bullish on RE, that shows that you have interest in RE investiment. And that is where basic differences lie between us. Because, I don't invest in RE and I am totally against it. Neither I am predicting Recession for the sake of investing my money, because I know better other places to invest money in succession time as well.

      I didn't start personal attacks, I was against the points you put on threads and against some irrelevant posts put by you. By the way, you said that I am not able to fight the facts, did you ever give any facts? Whereas I am telling my each & every point with some proof. You just say that prices are dobuled, don't you think that you have never ever given any fact on this forum, you have just put you thoughts and keep changing your views when somebody points to you.

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      • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

        Originally posted by BlotJab View Post
        I have already gave you lecture on long term in one other thread. There is nothing like long term which gives you profit, actually it is reverse the duration which gives you profit is called long term, it is totally relative. 2L in gold or FD can give you more return than RE in your so called long term.

        When you say you are long term bullish on RE, that shows that you have interest in RE investiment. And that is where basic differences lie between us. Because, I don't invest in RE and I am totally against it. Neither I am predicting Recession for the sake of investing my money, because I know better other places to invest money in succession time as well.

        I didn't start personal attacks, I was against the points you put on threads and against some irrelevant posts put by you. By the way, you said that I am not able to fight the facts, did you ever give any facts? Whereas I am telling my each & every point with some proof. You just say that prices are dobuled, don't you think that you have never ever given any fact on this forum, you have just put you thoughts and keep changing your views when somebody points to you.
        shouting is not necessary and will make you convince anyone....

        no one and I repeat no one can be certain that gold and FD will give you higher returns.....that's just an opinion at best probabilities.....

        please read that thread where I've already explained my comments about the word 'doubled'.....read all the comments and then come back and ask the questions already answered.....

        you are giving links from all over the place but not the meaningful......e.g. your godrej homes link was completely misleading in terms of conclusions you were driving out of that.
        When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

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        • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

          Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
          shouting is not necessary and will make you convince anyone....

          please read that thread where I've already explained my comments about the word 'doubled'.....read all the comments and then come back and ask the questions already answered.....

          you are giving links from all over the place but not the meaningful......e.g. your godrej homes link was completely misleading in terms of conclusions you were driving out of that.
          That is the main problem, first you write something, then you explain that you didn't mean that, and try to convince others that you meant something else, however you are not going to understand my point. Why don't you write something at first place which you actually want to say. Why do you write something for which you need to give explanation. And don't take it to personal attack, as I didn't take yours.

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          • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

            Originally posted by prasen_b View Post
            The current price ur quoting is in the same project or some other project? It is common for builders to increase rate as the project nears completion. This used to happen in 2009 and it also happens now. We should compare rates of projects which were in the same stage.
            I really don't think this RE cycle thing applies to india. Like u mentioned once the government has put a host of things in place to ensure that getting land and building houses is as difficult as it can possibly be. The rate of increase in R.E prices witnessed from 2003 is unprecedented in the history of independent India. Do you have any info on such rate of RE price increase previously in India?
            I have quoted another new launch price in same area - but specifications were better, area was bigger, so not strictly comparable - but that is the best I can do.

            Prices in other areas of Gurgaon have tripled in 2 years. Average return over Gurgaon in last 2 years is about 100%.

            Even assuming 50% return in 2 years, that is more than three times FD return.

            Stocks of course doubled from 2009 to 2010 but static now. So for both stocks and RE< 2009 was the best time to buy.

            Regardless, the price increase in any property bubble is 3-400%. We are nowhere near the bubble territory yet - that will come 3-4 years down the line.
            Last edited July 25 2011, 04:43 PM.
            Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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            • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

              Originally posted by BlotJab View Post
              That is the main problem, first you write something, then you explain that you didn't mean that, and try to convince others that you meant something else, however you are not going to understand my point. Why don't you write something at first place which you actually want to say. Why do you write something for which you need to give explanation. And don't take it to personal attack, as I didn't take yours.
              well it is evident by now that you are after headlines and tit bits....you dont look at details or context....that why you dont consider and understand the full context of the posts and what is written....

              it is evident from the various links you have been posting randomly....you put them in support of RE correction when just a little bit reading of the news item shows clearly that the message you inferred from those were completely the opposite the news item was referring to....

              I've proven it completely with the godrej news item on which you have been selectively silent but posted dozen other posts which are basically a subjective outcry
              When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                Originally posted by BlotJab View Post
                Sir if you are saying prices are doubled even in any perticular specific one project then I am ready to accept it. However I was under impression on following things.

                1) Prices in PS in 2009 were 2800, now they are 3900-4200. (% increase around 40%)

                2) Prices in Wakad in 2009 were 2500, now they are 3700-3800

                3) Prices in Aundh in 2009 were 4200, now they are 5500

                4) Prices in Pashan, Baner in 2009 were 3400-3500, now they are 4600-4700

                5) Prices in Boat club road in 2009 were 7000-8000, now you do better know current prices.

                6) Prices in Magarpatta in 2009 were 3500-4000, now they are 5000-5500.

                I could see prices in Talegoan or any area 80KM away from Pune were in the range of 1500-2000 in 2009, and now prices are in the range of 3000 Rs.

                I still think that prices are only increased by 40%, whereas blue chip stocs like L&T ( & others) have increased more than 120%. Like L&T was in the range of 800 in 2009 and now it is in the range of 1800. Increase of prices by 40% in 2.5 years means effectively you get the profit of not more than 10%.
                All 2009 prices you have quoted are pre-correction. During correction prices corrected from those levels. .e.g Baner went down to 2600 PSF. You will find examples of that on this forum itself. In fact someone from permabear camp and who is a respected veteran member claimed that he / she could get a deal at much less than that i.e. 2400 psf. So today prices in Baner in your own admission are 4600 psf which is nearly double?

                Money kept in FD during same time would have given paltry 6% after tax at most. Plus with FD you cannot leverage. With housing you also have tax benefit.

                With stocks you need be good in selection of stocks as some stocks did not rise as much and one could not leverage without understanding the risk involved. With gold very few savy investors can do that and again no leverage.

                e.g. if you had 25 lakhs cash you could either keep the same in FD / gold / cash. with housing you could have bought a flat worth 50-60 lakhs or more depending your circumstances. adjust tax benefits and effect of leverage and you will see the effect yourself.
                When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                  Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
                  well it is evident by now that you are after headlines and tit bits....you dont look at details or context....that why you dont consider and understand the full context of the posts and what is written....

                  it is evident from the various links you have been posting randomly....you put them in support of RE correction when just a little bit reading of the news item shows clearly that the message you inferred from those were completely the opposite the news item was referring to....

                  I've proven it completely with the godrej news item on which you have been selectively silent but posted dozen other posts which are basically a subjective outcry
                  You are not able to proof any of things yet. I don't know what did you proof when you said Godrej company is still making profit but its profit got reduced. Yaar don't you have mind, that there is liquidity problem in RE sector. Every time I have to explain you things, as you don't understand at first place. I give facts each & every time and you do personal attacks about my posts.

                  SBI (or any other bank) is ready to take your money (as FD) and give you 10% return annually. Whereas same SBI doesn't want to give money to builders (or RE sector) at 15% rate, as RBI has already warned other banks to be strict on lending money to RE sector. Don't you think, SBI is not sure of getting 5% return from RE sector, and you talk about long term bullish on RE. You have never ever given any fact, neither you are going nor you will give any facts /proofs on your views. You just keep saying something and later on say that I didn't mean this.

                  Had it been the case of bullishness in RE sector at present (or your so called long term), every other institution/banks/private lenders would have been fighting for investing their money into RE sector. Do you think is it happening?
                  It seems like you have so much interest in RE investment, and I am totally against any kind of investment in RE sector (this may lead into different kind of arguments).

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                    Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
                    All 2009 prices you have quoted are pre-correction. During correction prices corrected from those levels. .e.g Baner went down to 2600 PSF. You will find examples of that on this forum itself. In fact someone from permabear camp and who is a respected veteran member claimed that he / she could get a deal at much less than that i.e. 2400 psf. So today prices in Baner in your own admission are 4600 psf which is nearly double?

                    Money kept in FD during same time would have given paltry 6% after tax at most. Plus with FD you cannot leverage. With housing you also have tax benefit.

                    With stocks you need be good in selection of stocks as some stocks did not rise as much and one could not leverage without understanding the risk involved. With gold very few savy investors can do that and again no leverage.

                    e.g. if you had 25 lakhs cash you could either keep the same in FD / gold / cash. with housing you could have bought a flat worth 50-60 lakhs or more depending your circumstances. adjust tax benefits and effect of leverage and you will see the effect yourself.
                    Are you out of mind? You said there rates were before correction. Mere dost, I was taking about Baner not Balewadi-Baner road. Let me see what do you thing about prices in different places in 2009. Please share your prices, let other know how much do you know? You may say, prices in PS were 1500-2000 in 2009, and now they are 3800-4000, right? Keep sending your list of prices of 2009.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                      Originally posted by BlotJab View Post
                      You are not able to proof any of things yet. I don't know what did you proof when you said Godrej company is still making profit but its profit got reduced. Yaar don't you have mind, that there is liquidity problem in RE sector. Every time I have to explain you things, as you don't understand at first place. I give facts each & every time and you do personal attacks about my posts.

                      SBI (or any other bank) is ready to take your money (as FD) and give you 10% return annually. Whereas same SBI doesn't want to give money to builders (or RE sector) at 15% rate, as RBI has already warned other banks to be strict on lending money to RE sector. Don't you think, SBI is not sure of getting 5% return from RE sector, and you talk about long term bullish on RE. You have never ever given any fact, neither you are going nor you will give any facts /proofs on your views. You just keep saying something and later on say that I didn't mean this.

                      Had it been the case of bullishness in RE sector at present (or your so called long term), every other institution/banks/private lenders would have been fighting for investing their money into RE sector. Do you think is it happening?
                      It seems like you have so much interest in RE investment, and I am totally against any kind of investment in RE sector (this may lead into different kind of arguments).
                      all of this is fluffy and no substance...

                      now in last few posts you have accused me of having RE investments to make your mind to something else...

                      focus on the post not the poster....

                      there so much private equity going still in RE that all these anecdotes that your are providing dont matter.....

                      for Godrej story I have already provided information that their operating profit and sales both have actually gone up....so what more do you want to know.....
                      When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

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