Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....
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  • Originally Posted by manu1981
    Not sure from where this news u got

    This is the response from their salesperson after enquiry

    Topaz park sold out
    2900 ..heheh it was 4K+ :)


    it was from here
    http://.blogspot.com/2008/08/now-topaz-park-park-street-phase-3-at.html

    put before .blog, dont know why it deletes "" :)
    old post :D
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  • Originally Posted by gandalf
    it was from here
    http://.blogspot.com/2008/08/now-topaz-park-park-street-phase-3-at.html

    put before .blog, dont know why it deletes "" :)
    old post :D


    hehe...it keeps deleting ravi karandkars name...:bab (59):
    CommentQuote
  • may be someone found old blog of last recession where rates went down to 2700-2900
    I called them half an hr back only..

    No reduction in prices in any of the Park stree projects all are 4K+..In topaz no availabilty.


    Originally Posted by gandalf
    hehe...it keeps deleting ravi karandkars name...:bab (59):
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by gandalf
    it was from here
    http://.blogspot.com/2008/08/now-topaz-park-park-street-phase-3-at.html

    put before .blog, dont know why it deletes "" :)
    old post :D


    Gandalf, you are posting a link from 2008!!!!!
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  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    Gandalf, you are posting a link from 2008!!!!!


    yes, it was a reply to earlier post saying drop in rates...
    CommentQuote
  • guys i wont see the date but there was some replies on same post which was posted by R.K.'s Blog.

    You can search on google for "ravi karandeekar may 2011" which opens up his recent article 'Property Rates in Pune Real Estate Market Going Down'

    Originally Posted by gandalf
    yes, it was a reply to earlier post saying drop in rates...
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    India is a structural bull market for both stocks and RE for next 50 years.

    Every bull market gets cyclical corrections of 30-50% also - and currently we are going through one such.

    They are buying opportunities. RE is a more smooth but relentless rise than stocks and so will give you great returns without crazy volatility

    Something I posted a some 1 1/2 or 2 years ago on RE bulls thread: Reading it again, I find not much has changed - (reproduced below)


    Some RE, including at least the roof over your own head, is a total must to guard against inflation.

    There are 3 causes of inflation. First, the most basic is supply demand mismatch. If a thing is scarce, it costs more and as scarcity continues, price keeps rising. Scarcity can be genuine or because of hoarding/black marketing.

    Second is monetary policy - an increase in money supply.

    Third is competitive disadvantage - which is what results in currency devaluation.

    As regards RE, increase in price of RE is in fact nothing but inflation. It affects everybody including you and me. RE price inflation has been traditional in India because of scarcity factor due to misgovernance reasons.

    There is 700 million acres of land in India, around 1 acre for every 2 people. Around 250 million acres of this is cultivable.

    People cannot build homes in this land because there are no roads - you need a helicopter (or walk/bullock cart as actually practiced) to reach 90% of this land.

    Cost of land in countryside reflects acricultural output. Average is 50,000 per acre (price of 1 laptop). Highest possible yield of agriculture, as practiced in India is 2 tons of cereal per acre = 40,000 Rs at 20 Rs per kilo. Not counting input costs. Usual agricultural yield without irrigation is around 10,000 Rs per acre. Which is peanuts. So the value of land is determined entirely by means of roads - if there is road, price is in crores. If there is no road, price is in peanuts.

    Second we have bad laws. There are laws in every state which restrict building on agricutural land. There are urban land cieling acts which prevent easy manufacturing of large scale apartments. Tenancy laws are tilted against landlords, who prefer to lock up the flat than rent it (more in Delhi). All of these create a scarcity of housing, which has the effect of making housing expensive.

    Tenency laws paradoxically prevent people from getting cheap rental houses. Otherwise massive tenaments can be erected by companies and rent out 1000 sf flats at 1000 Rs per month (thats all it actually costs). But our govt is wretched and perverse and prevents this from happening by keeping archaic tenancy laws. As a result, people pay the same 1000Rs rent for living in a slum in Dharavi. Actually much more.

    Govt gains in multiple ways from this scarcity. Politicians finance and are financed by crooked builders. High value RE is a good hiding place for black money as well as corruption money. Congress traditionally has juggi jhopri vote bank - so they try to keep people poor. Their modus operandi is - you have to vote for me otherwise you lose even your juggi!!!!! Nobody publicises the fact that Congress laws are what created the juggi in the first place.

    In any case, after 60 years of mismanagement, the scarcity of flats remains. At the pace in which govt is creating roads, there is going to be flat scarcity for my lifetime at least.

    But my fear for the near future is that multiple factors are converging to cause inflation all together.

    First, the RE scarcity has been magnified by recent prosperity - salaries are up and a lot of people are looking to buy. People in their 50s, 40s, 30s, and even 20s are all entering the RE market at the same time. Last time this happened in 2004-2007, we had RE hyperinflation. Flat prices tripled in 3 years. As long as our economy does well, this trend will continue.

    Second, there has been good monetary action by RBI but exceptionally incompetent fiscal policy by the finance ministry. This includes NREGA, 6th pay commission and loan waivers. We have overspent govt funds crazily and this has caused an increase in money supply which makes inflation inevitable. This will be reflected in RE price. The govt servants and puclic sector undertakings have all got salary rise and arrears which will inevitably go to RE. It will also stoke inflation of food - where also poor govt policy has caused scarcity by destroying agriculture (17% of GDP last I heard).

    Third, monetary policy of the whole world is loose and over 5 years is bound to increase raw material prices for oil and base metals, both will impact RE constructin cost.

    Finally, currency movements in both directions will cause RE price inflation. If Rupee strengthens, then it means our economy is doing well and there will be more people quieing up for flats. If Rupee weakens, raw material costs will go up making flats more expensive to build. At the same time s o f t w a r e outsourcers will get a competitive advantage and will see pay rises - increasing demand for RE.

    There is one other thing - which many people who talk demand and supply do not understand at all.

    In USA there are 18 million more dwelling units than there are households. 18 million vacant homes. But year on year the number of households is increasing because of immigration and more children by christian rightwingers.

    In Europe, number of dwelling units equals number of households, with a mild excess which varies from country to country. There is a decline in number of households year on year due to declining population.

    In Japan, number of dwelling units equals number of households. But number of households is dropping precipitously due to massive aging and population decline.

    In China, number of dwelling units which in India will be called "pucca" exeeds number of households (YES!!!!!!). Everybody has a home, a TV, a cycle, a washing machine. Most current dwelling units are more than adequate by Indian standards. New housing is aspiratinal i.e. a luxury, as people earn more and want to better their lifestyle. Population is plateauing and is likely to face a 50 year slow decline followed by a precipitous drop much worse than Japan.

    Now you all know what India is. The vaaaaaaaaaaast majority live in tents/juggi/footpath/village huts without electricity.

    A small percentage of this mass moves out of poverty every year. This will create a demand supply mismatch for the next 100 years.

    If India shows even 5% growth sustained for the next 20 years, there will probably be a 50% mismatch over this period i.e. there will be only half as many dwelling units as compared to households with income enough to buy/rent a flat.Shortages and RE price inflation is inevitable.

    Better buy now. RE price has only one way to go and that is up.

    Current flattening is a buying opportunity, before the relentless RE inflation continues. I do not anticipate good road building by Indian governments for at least 15 years. The only thing which can prevent RE inflation is road building. If govt builds roads, then it will dull the RE price inflation somewhat.

    Since political parties are the main beneficiaries of RE price inflation, including election funding, it is in their self interest to misgovern India.


    Sir Learning Article
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  • That would be wonderful.

    Originally Posted by rajtjrll
    why do u think you need 4L incremental growth every year in loan requirement.....the prices are steady since feb-2011....almost 6 months...
    who knows it may remain steady for next 1 year and even come down.....
    you can add up 1 years savings...in down payment and end up paying less....
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  • Originally Posted by pawarnilesh
    Pune Real Estate Market Slow Down Started ---


    1. Vilas Javdekar and Associates was the first builder who brought down the rate or "cut the rate" from Rs.3,200 to Rs.2,900 per sq.ft. in Wakad, Aundh annex.

    2. Now, Topaz Park, (Park Street phase 3?) by Pride Purple is ready to charge Rs.2,900 if you give an advance disbursement of loan or if you make 100 % down payment.

    Should it be new thread ?


    I am not sure if either of these news is true.

    1. Which Vilas javdekar scheme you are talking about in Wakad? If it is Palash, the rate was 3200 for Insignia's booking - after that it is back to 3600 for the remaining ones. A number of people have inquired. how do you get the 2900 figure? Just trolling :)

    2. As mentioned by others, the rate is still 4,000 plus in Topaz park. This is the rate quoted by them this monday.
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  • Originally Posted by pgarg6868
    Sir Learning Article


    Awesome analysis in the above note .. but let's get down to basic fundamentals .. how can prices of dwellings in India be more or even equal to those in developed nations (in relatively comparable neighbourhods .. let's say in terms of commute time to the central business district) WHEN
    1. The average salary of people in India is nowhere near that of people in the developed nations
    2. The infrastructure cannot be compared to those in developed nations
    3. The quality of construction / fittings cannot be compared to those in developed nations
    4. Even the type of ownership cannot be compared to those in the developed nations. What we terms as "flats" are termed as "co-ops" in the US .. these are considerably cheaper than independent houses / condos as one does not own the 4 walls of the apartment or the land on which the dwelling stands. Can someone tell me how much it would cost to have a 3 bed "house" (not flat) in Mumbai??
    Any thoughts? I know a lot of people make a lot of money in India .. but am talking abt the Average Joe on the street not the investment banker types here. For me .. the math just doesn't add up. People are paying 1.5 Lakhs rent in Bandra .. that's as much as one would pay in Manhattan in one of the swanky towers there .. and from what I could make out of the note .. this is just the beginning .. jeez .. give me a break.
    Look at any of the recently released buildings .. not even 10-20% of the lights are on in the evenings .. as middle class .. are we just shooting ourselves chasing this dream of owning a home?
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  • Originally Posted by sunnybynight
    I am not sure if either of these news is true.

    1. Which Vilas javdekar scheme you are talking about in Wakad? If it is Palash, the rate was 3200 for Insignia's booking - after that it is back to 3600 for the remaining ones. A number of people have inquired. how do you get the 2900 figure? Just trolling :)

    2. As mentioned by others, the rate is still 4,000 plus in Topaz park. This is the rate quoted by them this monday.


    Today is Wednesday, so add 100 in it.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Kimmig
    Awesome analysis in the above note .. but let's get down to basic fundamentals .. how can prices of dwellings in India be more or even equal to those in developed nations (in relatively comparable neighbourhods .. let's say in terms of commute time to the central business district) WHEN
    1. The average salary of people in India is nowhere near that of people in the developed nations
    2. The infrastructure cannot be compared to those in developed nations
    3. The quality of construction / fittings cannot be compared to those in developed nations
    4. Even the type of ownership cannot be compared to those in the developed nations. What we terms as "flats" are termed as "co-ops" in the US .. these are considerably cheaper than independent houses / condos as one does not own the 4 walls of the apartment or the land on which the dwelling stands. Can someone tell me how much it would cost to have a 3 bed "house" (not flat) in Mumbai??
    Any thoughts? I know a lot of people make a lot of money in India .. but am talking abt the Average Joe on the street not the investment banker types here. For me .. the math just doesn't add up. People are paying 1.5 Lakhs rent in Bandra .. that's as much as one would pay in Manhattan in one of the swanky towers there .. and from what I could make out of the note .. this is just the beginning .. jeez .. give me a break.
    Look at any of the recently released buildings .. not even 10-20% of the lights are on in the evenings .. as middle class .. are we just shooting ourselves chasing this dream of owning a home?


    The answer to your question is simple - currency depreciation.

    Right now, Indian Rupee is temporarily strong. So you are calculating 1Crore = 200,000 dollars. But if our currency depreciated to 90Rs to the dollar, 1Cr = 100,000 dollars.

    Since whatever you have said above is absolutely true, something has to give way and that something is our currency.

    So expecting 60Rs to the dollar within the next one year would not be wrong. Only reason it hasnt happened is because US rates are abnormally low.

    The moment US rates start tightening (and it has to happen at some time in the next few years), our currency will depreciate like crazy.

    Let us assume a few approximate prices and see (dont remember exact prices)

    Year X USD/Rupee X Median US house price X DDA flat 2BHK price in Rs (dollar) X Ratio India house/US house

    1982 X ? 12 X50,000$ X1,00,000 Rs (=8000$) X6.25

    1987 X? 18 X75,000$ X8,00,000 Rs (=40,000$)X 1.85

    1992 X30 X100,000$ X6,00,000 Rs (=50,000$) X2.0

    1997 X35 X150,000$ X25,00,000 Rs (=70,000$)X 2.0

    2002 X45 X200,000$ X35,00,000 Rs (=70,000$)X 2.85

    2007 X45 X250,000$ X80,00,000 Rs (=175,000$) X1.42

    2011 X45 X225,000$ X125,00,000 Rs (=275,000$)X 0.81

    So historically US homes have costed around twice the price of a DDA flat. 1982 I dont remember the US exchange rate (strangely, could not find a good web site going back that far - anyone can post a good link????) , but US median housing price readily available - I have rounded off for easy analysis. For rIndia, I went with DDA flat whose market price I know.

    Currently, US homes are cheaper than in India. For reversion to mean, this ratio, currently 0.8 has to go back to about 2.

    So one of three things has to happen

    1. US homes have to appreciate by 100% (double). Seems impossible, but with inflation stoking by printing currency, ultimately it will happen

    2. India prices have to fall 50% (RE bull theory proved wrong guys believe this).

    3. USD has to appreciate 100% (i.e double to 90 per dollar).

    It can happen in any ratio. Over the long term, probably, 30% of each of these will happen i.e US prices will rise 30%, Indian prices will fall 30% and USD will appreciate 30% i.e Rupee depreciation of 30%.

    Question is which will come first? I as a RE bull theory proven right person, believe the order will be: Fall in Indian prices by 30% (happening right now), Rupee depreciation by 30% (expect to happen in next one year) and then US house appreciation by 30% (probably take 5 years and more)

    OR - Rupee can show run away depreciation. I remember 1991 when there was flight of capital. We had to devalue and shift to semi float. From 18Rs to dollar price went to 30 Rs to dollar if I remember right.

    If there is flight of capital, same thing can happen again. All of our forex reserve is hot money from FII who want to chase our volatile stock markets.

    We cannot allow them to put money in our gilt bonds - because with US rate at 0% and Indian rate at 8.4% or so, that is an arbitrage which will either bankrupt us or shift our rates to about 4% which would stoke the wildest inflation we have ever seen and collapse our monetary system.

    Our only option is to allow them to take their money and go and face a massive depreciation of Rupee - which will cause a bad recession and also stoke oil price inflation.

    The truth will lie somewhere in between -30/30/30 I wrote above is the safest prediction possible
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  • Venky - Me being an NRI with dollar denominated earnings is licking my lips thinking about dollar at 60-70+

    However looking at the America’s huge and growing current account deposit and more pension benefits related debt problems expected to come, I really doubt if the kind of depreciation you are talking about rupee will happen and that too in short to medium term

    Whats your basis for ruppee depreciation and that too so vehemently
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  • Venky .. thanks for your reply .. no offence, however, the analysis is just conjecture .. my question does not get answered .. how can people in India who's average income is lower than that of similarly qualified US people afford OR let me put it this way .. continue to afford as if they are going out of style .. such high priced dwellings? Especially when our home loan rates are in the stratoshpere compared to US ..
    Does this question stump others on the board as well or am I just plain stupid?

    Housing demand / supply gap is just a myth propagated by builders / Times of India / Congress .. there is enough and more land available .. in fact there are enough and more vacant flats available .. which are just being hoarded by these scamsters, politicians and the so-called "investor idiots". Your analysis is completely on the spot in your earlier post .. the Congi Govt itsels does not want people from the jhopadpattis / ghettos to move out so that they can protect their vote bank.

    Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    The answer to your question is simple - currency depreciation.

    Right now, Indian Rupee is temporarily strong. So you are calculating 1Crore = 200,000 dollars. But if our currency depreciated to 90Rs to the dollar, 1Cr = 100,000 dollars.

    Since whatever you have said above is absolutely true, something has to give way and that something is our currency.

    So expecting 60Rs to the dollar within the next one year would not be wrong. Only reason it hasnt happened is because US rates are abnormally low.

    The moment US rates start tightening (and it has to happen at some time in the next few years), our currency will depreciate like crazy.

    Let us assume a few approximate prices and see (dont remember exact prices)

    Year X USD/Rupee X Median US house price X DDA flat 2BHK price in Rs (dollar) X Ratio India house/US house

    1982 X ? 12 X50,000$ X1,00,000 Rs (=8000$) X6.25

    1987 X? 18 X75,000$ X8,00,000 Rs (=40,000$)X 1.85

    1992 X30 X100,000$ X6,00,000 Rs (=50,000$) X2.0

    1997 X35 X150,000$ X25,00,000 Rs (=70,000$)X 2.0

    2002 X45 X200,000$ X35,00,000 Rs (=70,000$)X 2.85

    2007 X45 X250,000$ X80,00,000 Rs (=175,000$) X1.42

    2011 X45 X225,000$ X125,00,000 Rs (=275,000$)X 0.81

    So historically US homes have costed around twice the price of a DDA flat. 1982 I dont remember the US exchange rate (strangely, could not find a good web site going back that far - anyone can post a good link????) , but US median housing price readily available - I have rounded off for easy analysis. For rIndia, I went with DDA flat whose market price I know.

    Currently, US homes are cheaper than in India. For reversion to mean, this ratio, currently 0.8 has to go back to about 2.

    So one of three things has to happen

    1. US homes have to appreciate by 100% (double). Seems impossible, but with inflation stoking by printing currency, ultimately it will happen

    2. India prices have to fall 50% (RE bull theory proved wrong guys believe this).

    3. USD has to appreciate 100% (i.e double to 90 per dollar).

    It can happen in any ratio. Over the long term, probably, 30% of each of these will happen i.e US prices will rise 30%, Indian prices will fall 30% and USD will appreciate 30% i.e Rupee depreciation of 30%.

    Question is which will come first? I as a RE bull theory proven right person, believe the order will be: Fall in Indian prices by 30% (happening right now), Rupee depreciation by 30% (expect to happen in next one year) and then US house appreciation by 30% (probably take 5 years and more)

    OR - Rupee can show run away depreciation. I remember 1991 when there was flight of capital. We had to devalue and shift to semi float. From 18Rs to dollar price went to 30 Rs to dollar if I remember right.

    If there is flight of capital, same thing can happen again. All of our forex reserve is hot money from FII who want to chase our volatile stock markets.

    We cannot allow them to put money in our gilt bonds - because with US rate at 0% and Indian rate at 8.4% or so, that is an arbitrage which will either bankrupt us or shift our rates to about 4% which would stoke the wildest inflation we have ever seen and collapse our monetary system.

    Our only option is to allow them to take their money and go and face a massive depreciation of Rupee - which will cause a bad recession and also stoke oil price inflation.

    The truth will lie somewhere in between -30/30/30 I wrote above is the safest prediction possible
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Kimmig
    Venky .. thanks for your reply .. no offence, however, the analysis is just conjecture .. my question does not get answered .. how can people in India who's average income is lower than that of similarly qualified US people afford OR let me put it this way .. continue to afford as if they are going out of style .. such high priced dwellings? Especially when our home loan rates are in the stratoshpere compared to US ..
    Does this question stump others on the board as well or am I just plain stupid?

    Housing demand / supply gap is just a myth propagated by builders / Times of India / Congress .. there is enough and more land available .. in fact there are enough and more vacant flats available .. which are just being hoarded by these scamsters, politicians and the so-called "investor idiots". Your analysis is completely on the spot in your earlier post .. the Congi Govt itsels does not want people from the jhopadpattis / ghettos to move out so that they can protect their vote bank.


    Dont forget the black money when looking at demand for RE as investment...most RE investment is made to hide black money.....there is almost insatiable demand for RE in India
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