Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....
Read more
Reply
538 Replies
Sort by :Filter by :
  • Lots of people seem to be objecting to the price situation. Unfortunately I cannot talk about Pune, I know nothing about it.

    I was one of the people scouting around for property in 2009 Jan. onwards in Gurgaon with a small budget,initially resale (since all launches of Sept 2008 had stalled and nothing new was launched.

    In resale, very few people were willing to sell - I found many broker type of people who were in distress willing to sell (they had made a booking to flip it). I found these people very shady and unreliable and I was not interested in this type of deal. They were holding out and waiting for a few months - the builder gave these people extra time for subsequent payments and so they had some comfort to hold on. So they were willing to sell maybe 200Rs over the price at which they had booked.

    I went to 4 builders for direct negotiation. All their launches were in luxury specs and were quite high budget. Again, they refused to sell below their list prices and refered me to brokers for discounts. Brokers went from 2% to 5% discount.

    BAsicaly, in Gurgaon, nobody was desperate to sell and were ready to wait it out.

    In plots also, people who had booked in 2006 or 2007 and were sitting on good profits even after the crash were selling. So BPTP plots sold around 6000-8000 psy levels and had run upto 14000 levels, not came down to 10000 levels (current price 30000).

    I finally booked at the bottom in May 2009, in a new launch at 1900 psf BSP, in an affordable type of launch. Project of 200 flats sold out in 1 month and the company relaunched a more expensive project (which also got sold out). Currently they have sold out another project at 3800 psf at same location, but with much better specification.

    So even for a person willing to scout for a good deal, there was no discount and no price crash, except for those willing to take a lot of third party and black money risk in resales. As far as I am concerned, there was no real discounts or price crash, except for occasional distress sales by people in over their head - and who wants to deal with such people?

    I went only to the tier 2 companies (tier 1 like DLF and Unitech were in bad shape and continue to be so. I never went to the tier 3 companies which were actually giving discounts - because these are not investment grade properties.

    So no real price drops for a middle class professional person - only at the lower levels and at the luxury levels (prices already 1 Cr plus in 2007 did come down to 80L in Unitech etc).

    Later on, I again scouted around for a second booking in NOIDA. Except Omaxe grandwoods, there were no discounts. And Omaxe was about to collapse - strict no-no for me.

    I am aware of the situation in Pune and Bangalore and also in Mumbai (mostly from this forum). Discounts were mostly from companies which were about to collapse (very big or very small). Who wants to buy original or resale from such companies?

    In already built ready made flats there was no price reduction at all - only deals drying up.

    Can you name a single already occupied project where prices fell? That is what a real price fall means - ready made houses become cheap.

    Booking is like a share - volatile and subject to all kinds of panic. They are only pieces of paper.

    Real estate has to be real !!!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by fundoo158

    IT couples (earning 12-13 lpa, managers, biz consultants) can't go beyond 55-60 lacs..:bab (22):

    This is 1st hand data :):bab (35):


    is 12-13lpa the total salary of the couple or each individual!!!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Jai_Singh
    is 12-13lpa the total salary of the couple or each individual!!!


    Each individual ofcourse...but even with that ur inhand comes around 70K smthing..but typically these ppl are having more liabilities and at 32+ age bracket....so, bit tight on what emi they can afford..
    CommentQuote
  • Just to add more facts about low rates in 2008/2009..
    I know deals were done in balewadi at rates of 2300 psf in Mar 2009
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by fundoo158
    Each individual ofcourse...but even with that ur inhand comes around 70K smthing..but typically these ppl are having more liabilities and at 32+ age bracket....so, bit tight on what emi they can afford..


    Yes you right. 24 lakh salary package couple hardly get 1.4 lakh RS month in hand salary (after 30% tax dedcution and other things). I know, they need atleast 50-60k per month for daily expenses, school fees for kids (majority of money goes there upto 25%), car maintenance etc. And they need to save 20k per month for medical emergency or holiday trips at the end of the year. And if they want to buy flat, they have just 60k Rs per month surplus money. So, 24 lakh Rs Salaried couple can hardly afford 60-80 lakh Rs loan and assuming that they have saved 20-40 lakh during their last 6-8 years of service then hardly they can afford flat of 80 lakh to 1 Cr Rs. And, I don't know how many couple like this will be there in Pune or how many will be like this in near future. But one thing is sure then investors are buying 80 lakh Rs flat (1000 square feet 2BHK) in Aundh with the dream that they will be able to sell it within 4- 5 years for 1.6 Cr Rs. I don't know, what will happen to Indian Economy.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    Yes you right. 24 lakh salary package couple hardly get 1.4 lakh RS month in hand salary (after 30% tax dedcution and other things). I know, they need atleast 50-60k per month for daily expenses, school fees for kids (majority of money goes there upto 25%), car maintenance etc. And they need to save 20k per month for medical emergency or holiday trips at the end of the year. And if they want to buy flat, they have just 60k Rs per month surplus money. So, 24 lakh Rs Salaried couple can hardly afford 60-80 lakh Rs loan and assuming that they have saved 20-40 lakh during their last 6-8 years of service then hardly they can afford flat of 80 lakh to 1 Cr Rs. And, I don't know how many couple like this will be there in Pune or how many will be like this in near future. But one thing is sure then investors are buying 80 lakh Rs flat (1000 square feet 2BHK) in Aundh with the dream that they will be able to sell it within 4- 5 years for 1.6 Cr Rs. I don't know, what will happen to Indian Economy.


    From 16L in 2000, same flat now costs 1.2 Cr in 2011. During this period we had stable currency and low inflation.

    From 1.2 Cr in 2011 to 10 Cr in 2022 seems eminently possible to me, given high inflation and depreciation in currency.

    In 1980s, flat costing 2L in 1984 went to 20L in 1994. So it has happened in another decade as well.

    Only in 1990s it was less. From 20L in 1994, prices were 30L in 2003. That is the exception decade - or perhaps it is going to repeat this decade - God only knows.

    But given inflation and depreciation, RE bull seems 90% probablitity and RE stand still seems 10% probablity.

    RE crash is 0% chance
    CommentQuote
  • i bought a flat in andheri for 5500/sq ft..which was previously at 8500

    rohan leher and blueridge..were selling at 2900/sq ft...

    my aunt brought a flat in shastri nagar for 10 lacs in 95/96..its value was 6 lacs in 2000..now 25 lacs..

    funny thing was veterans on this forum were expecting the price to correct further in 2009...they thought 2900 was very high..search some posts of 2009..its comical..

    Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    Lots of people seem to be objecting to the price situation. Unfortunately I cannot talk about Pune, I know nothing about it.

    I was one of the people scouting around for property in 2009 Jan. onwards in Gurgaon with a small budget,initially resale (since all launches of Sept 2008 had stalled and nothing new was launched.

    In resale, very few people were willing to sell - I found many broker type of people who were in distress willing to sell (they had made a booking to flip it). I found these people very shady and unreliable and I was not interested in this type of deal. They were holding out and waiting for a few months - the builder gave these people extra time for subsequent payments and so they had some comfort to hold on. So they were willing to sell maybe 200Rs over the price at which they had booked.

    I went to 4 builders for direct negotiation. All their launches were in luxury specs and were quite high budget. Again, they refused to sell below their list prices and refered me to brokers for discounts. Brokers went from 2% to 5% discount.

    BAsicaly, in Gurgaon, nobody was desperate to sell and were ready to wait it out.

    In plots also, people who had booked in 2006 or 2007 and were sitting on good profits even after the crash were selling. So BPTP plots sold around 6000-8000 psy levels and had run upto 14000 levels, not came down to 10000 levels (current price 30000).

    I finally booked at the bottom in May 2009, in a new launch at 1900 psf BSP, in an affordable type of launch. Project of 200 flats sold out in 1 month and the company relaunched a more expensive project (which also got sold out). Currently they have sold out another project at 3800 psf at same location, but with much better specification.

    So even for a person willing to scout for a good deal, there was no discount and no price crash, except for those willing to take a lot of third party and black money risk in resales. As far as I am concerned, there was no real discounts or price crash, except for occasional distress sales by people in over their head - and who wants to deal with such people?

    I went only to the tier 2 companies (tier 1 like DLF and Unitech were in bad shape and continue to be so. I never went to the tier 3 companies which were actually giving discounts - because these are not investment grade properties.

    So no real price drops for a middle class professional person - only at the lower levels and at the luxury levels (prices already 1 Cr plus in 2007 did come down to 80L in Unitech etc).

    Later on, I again scouted around for a second booking in NOIDA. Except Omaxe grandwoods, there were no discounts. And Omaxe was about to collapse - strict no-no for me.

    I am aware of the situation in Pune and Bangalore and also in Mumbai (mostly from this forum). Discounts were mostly from companies which were about to collapse (very big or very small). Who wants to buy original or resale from such companies?

    In already built ready made flats there was no price reduction at all - only deals drying up.

    Can you name a single already occupied project where prices fell? That is what a real price fall means - ready made houses become cheap.

    Booking is like a share - volatile and subject to all kinds of panic. They are only pieces of paper.

    Real estate has to be real !!!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    From 16L in 2000, same flat now costs 1.2 Cr in 2011. During this period we had stable currency and low inflation.

    From 1.2 Cr in 2011 to 10 Cr in 2022 seems eminently possible to me, given high inflation and depreciation in currency.

    In 1980s, flat costing 2L in 1984 went to 20L in 1994. So it has happened in another decade as well.

    Only in 1990s it was less. From 20L in 1994, prices were 30L in 2003. That is the exception decade - or perhaps it is going to repeat this decade - God only knows.

    But given inflation and depreciation, RE bull seems 90% probablitity and RE stand still seems 10% probablity.

    RE crash is 0% chance


    I don't know where did it happen that 16 lakh Rs flat become 1.2 Cr Rs flat in 10 years. But in Pune I know, the flat which was available in Aundh in 2000-2001 for 16 lakh Rs, now new flat in the same area (with better specifications and better amenities) is available for 80 Lakh Rs (the same flat which was sold in 2000-2201 for 16 lakh will be available in resale now below 80 lakh Rs).

    We bought flat for 2 lakh Rs in 1994, it was sold for 2.5 lakh Rs in 2004. Now the same flat is available for 15 lakh Rs. On an average I have seen than properties rate increased around 5 times in last decade. I do agree that it won't decrease by 5 times in current decade but it won't even become double in this decade. I mean, if the property available in Pune (lets say in Aundh) for 80 lakh Rs today, will not go beyond 1.6 Cr Rs by 2021, and the probability of this is 100% (now its upto the people,wheather they take it as RE appreciation, RE stablization or RE crash0.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    I don't know where did it happen that 16 lakh Rs flat become 1.2 Cr Rs flat in 10 years. But in Pune I know, the flat which was available in Aundh in 2000-2001 for 16 lakh Rs, now new flat in the same area (with better specifications and better amenities) is available for 80 Lakh Rs (the same flat which was sold in 2000-2201 for 16 lakh will be available in resale now below 80 lakh Rs).

    We bought flat for 2 lakh Rs in 1994, it was sold for 2.5 lakh Rs in 2004. Now the same flat is available for 15 lakh Rs. On an average I have seen than properties rate increased around 5 times in last decade. I do agree that it won't decrease by 5 times in current decade but it won't even become double in this decade. I mean, if the property available in Pune (lets say in Aundh) for 80 lakh Rs today, will not go beyond 1.6 Cr Rs by 2021, and the probability of this is 100% (now its upto the people,wheather they take it as RE appreciation, RE stablization or RE crash0.



    correct me if i am wrong.....
    who would by a 20 15 or even 10 year old Flat?
    I have seen a 1 bhk in kharadi which was some 6-7 year old, and the building condition was like in a junk....broken staircase...scratched lifts...dirty pathways...dont know about other problems....
    but for me it looked like wasting 18L at that time....
    i never seen a property which is 20 yr old but dont know how such scrap holds value with it.......
    considering todays bad quality right from the date of possassion.....how would our investment would hold value with time span of 10 or 20 years....
    i heard in Mumbai old chawls being rebuild in sky scrappers...thats great idea....never heard something like that in pune.....
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    I don't know where did it happen that 16 lakh Rs flat become 1.2 Cr Rs flat in 10 years. But in Pune I know, the flat which was available in Aundh in 2000-2001 for 16 lakh Rs, now new flat in the same area (with better specifications and better amenities) is available for 80 Lakh Rs (the same flat which was sold in 2000-2201 for 16 lakh will be available in resale now below 80 lakh Rs).

    We bought flat for 2 lakh Rs in 1994, it was sold for 2.5 lakh Rs in 2004. Now the same flat is available for 15 lakh Rs. On an average I have seen than properties rate increased around 5 times in last decade. I do agree that it won't decrease by 5 times in current decade but it won't even become double in this decade. I mean, if the property available in Pune (lets say in Aundh) for 80 lakh Rs today, will not go beyond 1.6 Cr Rs by 2021, and the probability of this is 100% (now its upto the people,wheather they take it as RE appreciation, RE stablization or RE crash0.

    +1...agree
    CommentQuote
  • If RE has negligible risk and always offers above average returns, it means that all the investments should get diverted to it. People should sell their gold, break their FDs or PFs and everyone should invest in RE. Similarly, all the fund managers should stop fooling themselves in stock market and instead just invest in RE.

    Either all the economic theories are wrong or the notion of RE as best investment always (generating supernormal profit years after years) is false.
    CommentQuote
  • Wanted to share a article i came accross, how people are blindly booking the flats without proper lawyer consultation

    Original Artcile

    The one thing you hear in Bangalore Real Estate - if a project is blessed by "State Bank of India", it's golden. SBI is the top tier bank of the lot and supposedly they have the most anal lawyers in town. If they clear a project, it's absolutely clear. There's nothing to worry.

    Even banks approved projects have gucha

    joined the Yahoo Group of the owners of the "villas" and asked them who used a lawyer to verify the land. Of the 30 odd people in the mailing list, not one had used an external lawyer. They all depended on the fact that the bank they borrowed money from clearing the land. Since the land was cleared by the bank, they assume the land and the project should be clean.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    From 16L in 2000, same flat now costs 1.2 Cr in 2011. During this period we had stable currency and low inflation.

    From 1.2 Cr in 2011 to 10 Cr in 2022 seems eminently possible to me, given high inflation and depreciation in currency.

    In 1980s, flat costing 2L in 1984 went to 20L in 1994. So it has happened in another decade as well.

    Only in 1990s it was less. From 20L in 1994, prices were 30L in 2003. That is the exception decade - or perhaps it is going to repeat this decade - God only knows.

    But given inflation and depreciation, RE bull seems 90% probablitity and RE stand still seems 10% probablity.

    RE crash is 0% chance



    The year 2000-2011 had ONE more thing apart from currency/inflation...Rise of Indian IT sector..A sector which was 1st to pay astronomical salaries and created a new middle class with very high spending power...This sector acted as "grease" to the engine of Indian economy...powering other sectors like Financial services, Commercial RE, retail..malls/multiplex etc, Residential RE..U throw a stone in mall and its 70% probability that it will hit IT guy. :D
    So in short IT industry helped a lot of other sectors to stand on its feet and these sectors are now atleast at par with IT. Prior to 2000, ppl use to get 10-12K kind of salary which was considered "good". IT changed that..and other sectors had to follow it to get talent. In IT companies, there are many engg, MBAs, Designers etc..who don't like IT work...but its all about money honey. Today when ppl gives examples of shining sectors, they forget the role IT played to bring them and up ...and Mind u ...they are still dependent to an extent.

    So if 2011-2021 has to see 10X increase in prices, it will have to find a "NEW" industry/sector which can help to boost demand. IT as such is loosing sheen and won't help that. If it further increases salary 20-25%, it will slowly become un-competitive with international counterparts. A recession will severely impact it ( all other allied sectors like Banks, RE, print, media etc etc) as all big IT companies 40-50% revenue from BFS sector.

    I don't see any new sector which can replace IT sector & act as new "grease".:bab (38): Do u ?


    I don't have data for 84-94 period..and what helped prices to rise..But if u have, can u please check how the trend was from 84-90 and 91-94 period? Is opening of indian economy was the major reason...Since ur data is "Dilli" biased, these is high chance that opening of economy in 91 lead to soaring of prices in metros as they were the 1st places MNCs attacked.
    CommentQuote
  • I think I have already posted price trends of Delhi in great detail in earlier parts of this same thread.

    A ten times price escalation seems impossible now because it seems inconceivable in our minds. But it has happened in 1970, 1980s and noughties decades.

    How will people get such salaries?

    Perhaps because our currency becomes junk.

    How will flat prices become so high?

    PErhaps because we return to the 70s and 80s scarcity model of very low RE supplies relative to demand.

    Only time will tell - I had earlier written my predictions for the year, the decade and the century to come - seems only a short while ago, but already one year is almost over.

    Time to revisit the predictions and come out with new ones - will be getting to work on that soon.

    Time flys. So do real estate prices - stratospheric now
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by vivek.cap
    Wanted to share a article i came accross, how people are blindly booking the flats without proper lawyer consultation

    Original Artcile

    The one thing you hear in Bangalore Real Estate - if a project is blessed by "State Bank of India", it's golden. SBI is the top tier bank of the lot and supposedly they have the most anal lawyers in town. If they clear a project, it's absolutely clear. There's nothing to worry.

    Even banks approved projects have gucha

    joined the Yahoo Group of the owners of the "villas" and asked them who used a lawyer to verify the land. Of the 30 odd people in the mailing list, not one had used an external lawyer. They all depended on the fact that the bank they borrowed money from clearing the land. Since the land was cleared by the bank, they assume the land and the project should be clean.


    These folks are investors and will find a bakra for these properties. Hence they are not worried.

    Some of m friends had booked in such non-approved flats and the builder got the approvals after 2 years post possession. How?? Bribe after all. Why do you think the politicians are against Lokpal !!
    CommentQuote