Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....
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  • Originally Posted by compuwalah
    Thanks everyone posting the data/analysis/views which prove that the RE bull theory has proved right. No other asset class has shown such an appreciation.
    No other asset appreciation evokes so much emotional reponses (never heard terms "crooked gold traders" or "crooked stock brokers" or "crooked forex traders"). Where as "crooked builders" finds such an acceptance on this forum :)

    Residex has given up collecing data I guess

    National Housing Bank


    Here !! Hear !!
    Builder speaks his mind.

    If builders have to come here to hype RE, it clearly shows the way the winds are blowing.
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  • Originally Posted by puser
    facts speak for themselves. 3 bhk flat costing 42 lakhs in 2007 now costs 85 lakhs in same project. some flats are still available in the same project. sadly in 2007 i had no financials backing now i built my own corpus but rates r unimaginably high.

    undoubtedly those who bought in 2007 stand gainers. it would be highly questionable to expect prices would equal 42 lakh for same project for 3 bhk leave alone coming below that.


    A flat was quoted at 42 lakh in 2007. In 2009 one of my relatives bought the same for 30 lakh mid 2009. he got possession 3 months back . Living in it now Now the flat quotes for 60 lakh.
    You need to be patient enough to wait and take the plunge when time comes.
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  • Originally Posted by msp1976
    Here !! Hear !!
    Builder speaks his mind.

    If builders have to come here to hype RE, it clearly shows the way the winds are blowing.


    You could also have added Hare and Hair to the equation :)
    If only builder get time off counting the money, appeasing municipalty guys, attending to buyers etc
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  • Originally Posted by compuwalah
    You could also have added Hare and Hair to the equation :)
    If only builder get time off counting the money, appeasing municipalty guys, attending to buyers etc


    I agree. When I see people blaming other posters as being 'builders agent', 'brokers' or even a 'builder', I wonder why these otherwise sensible people are saying this. Do they not know how rich builders are??? I am sure they do. A builder who is below tier-3 category usually own a couple of Mercedes-benzes. Imagining that these guys might log into IREF and start typing in words is highly ridiculous. These are high flying people who typiclly employ 1000's of people and probably don't even have an email accounts that they look at.

    I don't think CREDAI employs agents to write in the forums. They do employ people to write in Times Of India and Sakal that has far reaching impact on target audience. Their advertizing budgets are seriously high and their reach pretty high.

    Now, it is possible that an overzealous agent may want to sell his property to people on this forum but he will be very specific about what property he wants to sell. Never in general he will support other properties.
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  • Originally Posted by msp1976
    A flat was quoted at 42 lakh in 2007. In 2009 one of my relatives bought the same for 30 lakh mid 2009. he got possession 3 months back . Living in it now Now the flat quotes for 60 lakh.
    You need to be patient enough to wait and take the plunge when time comes.


    and u think flat would cost 30 lakh or even 42 lakh anytime in future? it would be fantastic but its too fantastical to be true
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  • Originally Posted by NG2012
    I agree. When I see people blaming other posters as being 'builders agent', 'brokers' or even a 'builder', I wonder why these otherwise sensible people are saying this. Do they not know how rich builders are??? I am sure they do. A builder who is below tier-3 category usually own a couple of Mercedes-benzes. Imagining that these guys might log into IREF and start typing in words is highly ridiculous. These are high flying people who typiclly employ 1000's of people and probably don't even have an email accounts that they look at.


    Jitu_Sir is a builder, owns Mercedes, is selling one of the costliest scheme in Kothrud and yet writes in this forum very often...


    Now, it is possible that an overzealous agent may want to sell his property to people on this forum but he will be very specific about what property he wants to sell. Never in general he will support other properties.


    Agents do want to create an environment like - prices are high everywhere.. not just in a specific property... so these comments do happen.

    having said that, i also agree to you that people should not label someone just like that... there are folks who are long in the forum and no one can hide their real intents for that long... there were some agents/fake ids thrashed by Admin already...
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  • Builders have a right to post as well (within rules)

    Originally Posted by NG2012
    I agree. When I see people blaming other posters as being 'builders agent', 'brokers' or even a 'builder', I wonder why these otherwise sensible people are saying this. Do they not know how rich builders are??? I am sure they do. A builder who is below tier-3 category usually own a couple of Mercedes-benzes. Imagining that these guys might log into IREF and start typing in words is highly ridiculous. These are high flying people who typiclly employ 1000's of people and probably don't even have an email accounts that they look at.

    I don't think CREDAI employs agents to write in the forums. They do employ people to write in Times Of India and Sakal that has far reaching impact on target audience. Their advertizing budgets are seriously high and their reach pretty high.

    Now, it is possible that an overzealous agent may want to sell his property to people on this forum but he will be very specific about what property he wants to sell. Never in general he will support other properties.



    Friends,

    I have never even once called anyone builder or their agent. After all, if they follow IREF rules, they have every right to their opinion and we might even pick up some value from what they write.

    Though, I'm still waiting for something useful from them - whoever they are! :D

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by NG2012


    I don't think CREDAI employs agents to write in the forums. They do employ people to write in Times Of India and Sakal that has far reaching impact on target audience. Their advertizing budgets are seriously high and their reach pretty high.

    .


    You should visit Noida Forum, I at least know two guys there who themselves acknowledge that they are Agents or legal experts of Real Estate firms.

    These two are pretty much good writers and draws lot of attention and enthusiasm from members.

    How much truth they speak is for you to analyze, I read those posts for just the fun of it.
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  • Happy New Year 2014 to all.
    Time .
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  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    How?

    Because of short term effects persisting for a decade. Rupee has stayed at 45 to dollar for last 10 years. Hence all this distortion. THe last decade has been a little crazy and removed from fundamentals. With so much imbalance, something has to give.

    Our housing prices are not the only things which have inflated - there has been general inflation os an average 6-7% in this decade vs some 2-3% in USA over this decade (ball park figures).

    In other words, there is a bubble in India, but the bubble is not in our RE so much as in our currency - we have an abnormally strong currency because a lot of imaginary economic strength is being counted as real. And hot money is filling our reserves.

    When this imaginary strength vanishes, it is not the RE prices which will come down to earth, but our currency value.

    I reproduce below an anonymous post from India's housing bubble blog, which is relevant to the discussion

    If real estate prices crash (in Rupees), the GOI will simply repeat what they did in 2008-2009, they will print money until nominal real estate prices are stabilized. The dollar is a very weak currency that is constantly declining against all other international currencies over the past decade, yet the exchange rate of the Rupee has not budged against the dollar. This tells me that the Rupee is structurally a very weak currency that is capable of being pumped and primed to hide any deflationary effects. As late as 2009-10 when you needed to mortgage your children to buy a bag of onions, our omniscient and omnipotent Prime Minister was warning of the bogeyman of "deflation".
    If real estate prices fall (again, in nominal terms), all home-owners have to do is to wait for the RBI/GOI to rescue them with another round of inflation.
    When I was growing up, a lakh was a very huge sum of money. A lakhpathi was considered a very wealthy man. A Crorepathi was someone wealthy beyond imagination. Today, a lakh is the monthly salary of many professionals and a Crore can't even get you a 2 Bedroom apartment in many Indian cities. The people who bought their homes for lakhs 20 years ago are laughing all the way to the bank because they are paying back their Rupee mortgages now with MASSIVELY depreciated money.
    NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF INFLATION TO BENEFIT THE HIGHLY-LEVERAGED AND THE RECKLESS WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PUNISHING SAVERS AND THE PRUDENT.
    My father bought a motor vehicle in 1975 which he sold in 2000 for a HIGHER price (in Rupee terms) than what he paid for it in 1975. There are not many countries in the world where even normally depreciating assets become more "valuable" over time.
    This is India. This is the Indian Rupee. In this environment, asset prices have only one direction: UP. Prudent and canny Indians will wait out any slowdown by waiting for the ameliorating effects of inflation to catch up.
    Print, Print, Print...


    Wiseman, pearls of wisdom from you on how I buy RE - I totally agree.


    Was just going through some old threads...and some of the post by VenkyTalks are really enlightening. He did hit the bulls eye here isnt it..when he predicted that currency will fall but real estate will not.....
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  • Originally Posted by compuwalah
    Happy New Year 2014 to all.
    Time .


    Hey Compu,

    Wishing you a Happy New Year and lots of prosperity (Health first!)

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    The answer to your question is simple - currency depreciation.

    Right now, Indian Rupee is temporarily strong. So you are calculating 1Crore = 200,000 dollars. But if our currency depreciated to 90Rs to the dollar, 1Cr = 100,000 dollars.

    Since whatever you have said above is absolutely true, something has to give way and that something is our currency.

    So expecting 60Rs to the dollar within the next one year would not be wrong. Only reason it hasnt happened is because US rates are abnormally low.

    The moment US rates start tightening (and it has to happen at some time in the next few years), our currency will depreciate like crazy.

    Let us assume a few approximate prices and see (dont remember exact prices)

    Year X USD/Rupee X Median US house price X DDA flat 2BHK price in Rs (dollar) X Ratio India house/US house

    1982 X ? 12 X50,000$ X1,00,000 Rs (=8000$) X6.25

    1987 X? 18 X75,000$ X8,00,000 Rs (=40,000$)X 1.85

    1992 X30 X100,000$ X6,00,000 Rs (=50,000$) X2.0

    1997 X35 X150,000$ X25,00,000 Rs (=70,000$)X 2.0

    2002 X45 X200,000$ X35,00,000 Rs (=70,000$)X 2.85

    2007 X45 X250,000$ X80,00,000 Rs (=175,000$) X1.42

    2011 X45 X225,000$ X125,00,000 Rs (=275,000$)X 0.81

    So historically US homes have costed around twice the price of a DDA flat. 1982 I dont remember the US exchange rate (strangely, could not find a good web site going back that far - anyone can post a good link????) , but US median housing price readily available - I have rounded off for easy analysis. For rIndia, I went with DDA flat whose market price I know.

    Currently, US homes are cheaper than in India. For reversion to mean, this ratio, currently 0.8 has to go back to about 2.

    So one of three things has to happen

    1. US homes have to appreciate by 100% (double). Seems impossible, but with inflation stoking by printing currency, ultimately it will happen

    2. India prices have to fall 50% (RE bull theory proved wrong guys believe this).

    3. USD has to appreciate 100% (i.e double to 90 per dollar).

    It can happen in any ratio. Over the long term, probably, 30% of each of these will happen i.e US prices will rise 30%, Indian prices will fall 30% and USD will appreciate 30% i.e Rupee depreciation of 30%.

    Question is which will come first? I as a RE bull theory proven right person, believe the order will be: Fall in Indian prices by 30% (happening right now), Rupee depreciation by 30% (expect to happen in next one year) and then US house appreciation by 30% (probably take 5 years and more)

    OR - Rupee can show run away depreciation. I remember 1991 when there was flight of capital. We had to devalue and shift to semi float. From 18Rs to dollar price went to 30 Rs to dollar if I remember right.

    If there is flight of capital, same thing can happen again. All of our forex reserve is hot money from FII who want to chase our volatile stock markets.

    We cannot allow them to put money in our gilt bonds - because with US rate at 0% and Indian rate at 8.4% or so, that is an arbitrage which will either bankrupt us or shift our rates to about 4% which would stoke the wildest inflation we have ever seen and collapse our monetary system.

    Our only option is to allow them to take their money and go and face a massive depreciation of Rupee - which will cause a bad recession and also stoke oil price inflation.

    The truth will lie somewhere in between -30/30/30 I wrote above is the safest prediction possible


    I really wonder how you knew! :)
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  • It was a brilliant prediction Venky...you are proved so damn right on this....amazed on your ability to put these things with so much clarity and with numbers
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  • Indian insurance companies will spend Rs 12,100 crore on IT products and services in 2014, a 12 per cent rise over 2013, according to Gartner Inc.

    Indian insurers' IT spending to touch Rs 12,100 cr in 2014: Gartner | Business Line
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  • There could be a sliver of light in these times of gloom, when the economy is set to clock under 5% growth in the current financial year: foreign banks such as Citibank, Standard Chartered and HSBC are firming up plans to add more than 5,000 jobs in 2014.


    Citi, StanChart, HSBC to add 5,000 jobs in India, hire women - Hindustan Times
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