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Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

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Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

Last updated: June 15 2016
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  • Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

    Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....
    When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes
  • #2

    #2

    Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

    Is this going to be Part-2 of the great epic?
    MM

    Comment

    • #3

      #3

      Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

      Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
      Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....
      Lol. What is enough said?? Can you show me the price comparisons ??

      Nanded City should have been 5000-5500/sq ft now (2500-2700 in 2009),
      Samrajya should have been 8000-8400/sq ft (4000-4200 in 2009).......

      And there are many other egs. too.
      Btw, this is a forum & not twitter ....please explain while starting new thread.
      If you are happy, you are successful.

      Comment

      • #4

        #4

        Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

        So as per theory prices are going to increase 50% on YOY basis??

        Comment

        • #5

          #5

          Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

          Nice & catchy title!

          Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
          Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....
          Stoxxx,

          Good start!

          Now let us get to the nitty gritty with an unbiased view ...

          Coming to the the term "proved right". What was the prediction / prognosis? What is the data that proves it right?

          For example ... if price in a location (please take a popular developed location & not some farmland which went up from Rs 1 to 2).

          Show 2009 & 2011 prices. If you can, also show a price adjusted against
          1. inflation
          2. Gold

          Show that target was reached!!!

          As far as I can see, if target of builders was reached, one important, indirect indicator should have exceeded 2007 levels. Stock prices of listed builders.

          Reason I'm invoking stock price is that it incorporates overall health of builder, including how much they are holding back as inventory (by borrowings & without selling) in order to keep prices artificially high. Otherwise, think of hit on prices if all that inventory came immediately to market at wharever price it could afford.

          Here is that indicator...

          Company, 2007 high, 2009 low, current
          ------------------------------------------------
          DLF ....... 1300 ......... 170 ....... 225
          Unitech .. 580 ........... 22 ........ 33
          Sobha ... 1230 .......... 150 ...... 250
          ------------------------------------------------

          You get the picture. If these were really doing well & selling all that they built at healthy prices (& not kept piling up inventory to hide the fact that the real market was actually weaker & could not support such volumes at such high prices), then their stock prices would reflect the health & good future prospects & be at new highs!!!!

          When we see that prices have really gone up on increasing volumes & low supply, then we have a genuine story. Otherwise its like the bailouts have kept various economies in "growth" mode!

          cheers
          Last edited June 19 2011, 04:41 PM.

          Comment

          • #6

            #6

            Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

            Pls show data ?
            v few places/areas have prices doubled. Most of the places it is arnd 20 to 50%

            only doubling example in mumbai is DB Realty in dahisar reached a low of 3200 in march 2009. it is somewhere around 6K now. Any other can you point out where it has been 100%. ?

            Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
            Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....

            Comment

            • #7

              #7

              Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

              Classic case of HIT and RUN

              Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
              Prices doubled from 2009...enough said....
              This person personifies classic hit and run , what that means is , he/she will start a contriversal topic and then never bother to respond , because it has done its job of creating that curosity and look at the # of views this topic has .. people want " san sani khabar" weather it makes sense or not .. nobody cares

              Comment

              • #8

                #8

                Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                Originally posted by shashankgujjar View Post
                This person personifies classic hit and run , what that means is , he/she will start a contriversal topic and then never bother to respond , because it has done its job of creating that curosity and look at the # of views this topic has .. people want " san sani khabar" weather it makes sense or not .. nobody cares
                oh yeah...and how many threads has this person started....firstly look at my responses in other thread and where I have already suggested by examples why the thread title 'RE bulls theory proved wrong' is inappropriate.....

                I know on this forum most people having missed the bus and waiting for downward prices forever in vain would attack any other view that suggests that prices have actually been moving north since 2009 when the other thread was started.
                When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

                Comment

                • #9

                  #9

                  Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                  let me clarify the term doubling was more a metaphor but in reality it implies a significant rise be it 40% or 60%.
                  When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

                  Comment

                  • #10

                    #10

                    Re : Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Right !!!

                    Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                    Stoxxx,

                    Good start!

                    Now let us get to the nitty gritty with an unbiased view ...

                    Coming to the the term "proved right". What was the prediction / prognosis? What is the data that proves it right?

                    For example ... if price in a location (please take a popular developed location & not some farmland which went up from Rs 1 to 2).

                    Show 2009 & 2011 prices. If you can, also show a price adjusted against
                    1. inflation
                    2. Gold

                    Show that target was reached!!!

                    As far as I can see, if target of builders was reached, one important, indirect indicator should have exceeded 2007 levels. Stock prices of listed builders.

                    Reason I'm invoking stock price is that it incorporates overall health of builder, including how much they are holding back as inventory (by borrowings & without selling) in order to keep prices artificially high. Otherwise, think of hit on prices if all that inventory came immediately to market at wharever price it could afford.

                    Here is that indicator...

                    Company, 2007 high, 2009 low, current
                    ------------------------------------------------
                    DLF ....... 1300 ......... 170 ....... 225
                    Unitech .. 580 ........... 22 ........ 33
                    Sobha ... 1230 .......... 150 ...... 250
                    ------------------------------------------------

                    You get the picture. If these were really doing well & selling all that they built at healthy prices (& not kept piling up inventory to hide the fact that the real market was actually weaker & could not support such volumes at such high prices), then their stock prices would reflect the health & good future prospects & be at new highs!!!!

                    When we see that prices have really gone up on increasing volumes & low supply, then we have a genuine story. Otherwise its like the bailouts have kept various economies in "growth" mode!

                    cheers
                    Good post as usual....will get back time permitting have been traveling extensively hence first post was cryptic....
                    When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

                    Comment

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