I am wondering, is it possible that recession will begin from 2012? I have seen many articles on internet about this, and recently one from Gary Shilling (please see the link Paul Farrel: A Recession Is Coming In 2012 And Things Don )

Any thoughts from intellectual people ...

How will it impact on IT and RE sectors?
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  • One more link from CNN.... "Goldman says recession risk rising"

    Goldman says recession risk rising - Term Sheet
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  • hmmmm.......let me look at my crystal ball......TGIF

    meanwhile please take a look at below

    > Below are four (4 ) questions and a bonus question. You have to answer

    > them instantly. You can't take your time, answer all of them
    immediately.
    > OK?
    >
    > Let's find out just how clever you really are....
    >
    > Ready? GO!!!
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > First Question:
    >
    > You are participating in a race. You overtake the second person. What
    > position are you in?
    >
    >
    >
    > Answer: If you answered that you are first, then you are absolutely
    wrong!
    > If you overtake the second person and you take his place, you are
    second!
    >
    > Try not to screw up next time. Now answer the second question, but
    don't
    > take as much time as you took for the first question, OK ?
    >
    > Second Question:
    >
    > If you overtake the last person, then you are...? (scroll down)
    >
    >
    >
    > Answer: If you answered that you are second to last, then you are
    wrong
    > again. Tell me, how can you overtake the LAST person?
    >
    > You're not very good at this, are you?
    >
    > Third Question:
    >
    > V ery tricky arithmetic! Note: This must be done in your head only .
    Do
    > NOT use paper and pencil or a calculator. Try it.
    >
    > Take 1000 and add 40 to it. Now add another 1000 . Now add 30. Add
    another
    > 1000 . Now add 20 . Now add another 1000 . Now add 10. What is the
    total?
    >
    > Scroll down for answer.....
    >
    > Did you get 5000?
    >
    > The correct answer is actually 4100.
    >
    > If you don't believe it, check it with a calculator! Today is
    definitely
    > not your day, is it? Maybe you'll get the last question right...
    Maybe.
    >
    > Fourth Question:
    >
    > Mary's father has five daughters: 1. Nana, 2. Nene, 3. Nini, 4. Nono.
    What
    > is the name of the fifth daughter?
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    >
    > Did you Answer Nunu? NO! Of course it isn't.
    >
    > Her name is Mary. Read the question again!
    >
    > Okay, now the bonus round:
    >
    > A mute person goes into a shop and wants to buy a toothbrush. By
    imitating
    > the action of brushing his teeth he successfully expresses himself to
    the
    > shopkeeper and the purchase is done.
    >
    > Next, a blind man comes into the shop who wants to buy a pair of
    > sunglasses; how does HE indicate what he wants?
    >
    > He just has to open his mouth and ask...
    > It's really very simple.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    hmmmm.......let me look at my crystal ball......TGIF

    meanwhile please take a look at below

    > Below are four (4 ) questions and a bonus question. You have to answer

    > them instantly. You can't take your time, answer all of them
    immediately.
    > OK?
    >
    > Let's find out just how clever you really are....
    >
    > Ready? GO!!!
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > First Question:
    >
    > You are participating in a race. You overtake the second person. What
    > position are you in?
    >
    >
    >
    > Answer: If you answered that you are first, then you are absolutely
    wrong!
    > If you overtake the second person and you take his place, you are
    second!
    >
    > Try not to screw up next time. Now answer the second question, but
    don't
    > take as much time as you took for the first question, OK ?
    >
    > Second Question:
    >
    > If you overtake the last person, then you are...? (scroll down)
    >
    >
    >
    > Answer: If you answered that you are second to last, then you are
    wrong
    > again. Tell me, how can you overtake the LAST person?
    >
    > You're not very good at this, are you?
    >
    > Third Question:
    >
    > V ery tricky arithmetic! Note: This must be done in your head only .
    Do
    > NOT use paper and pencil or a calculator. Try it.
    >
    > Take 1000 and add 40 to it. Now add another 1000 . Now add 30. Add
    another
    > 1000 . Now add 20 . Now add another 1000 . Now add 10. What is the
    total?
    >
    > Scroll down for answer.....
    >
    > Did you get 5000?
    >
    > The correct answer is actually 4100.
    >
    > If you don't believe it, check it with a calculator! Today is
    definitely
    > not your day, is it? Maybe you'll get the last question right...
    Maybe.
    >
    > Fourth Question:
    >
    > Mary's father has five daughters: 1. Nana, 2. Nene, 3. Nini, 4. Nono.
    What
    > is the name of the fifth daughter?
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    >
    > Did you Answer Nunu? NO! Of course it isn't.
    >
    > Her name is Mary. Read the question again!
    >
    > Okay, now the bonus round:
    >
    > A mute person goes into a shop and wants to buy a toothbrush. By
    imitating
    > the action of brushing his teeth he successfully expresses himself to
    the
    > shopkeeper and the purchase is done.
    >
    > Next, a blind man comes into the shop who wants to buy a pair of
    > sunglasses; how does HE indicate what he wants?
    >
    > He just has to open his mouth and ask...
    > It's really very simple.


    Those were nice questions, I would have solved them correctly if you had given at the time when I was preparing for JEE. Now my mind doesn't work much, reasons? first I am out of IIT college now, second I am with people like you in this forum.
    CommentQuote
  • People have been predicting the next bubble/recession for the last couple of years, the fact is that they are all living in 2008 ie the year,when hardly anyone predicted a crash. As always, a crash/recession/bubble hardly ever comes when it's been predicted/expected.

    In any case the next crash in our stock market should come in 2015-16(following the 8 years rule)...just another useless stat.
    CommentQuote
  • I would say that everyone is now busy in analyzing and trying to find out when recession-like symptoms are visible.
    I dont think anyone can predict it. If this was the case, 2008 recession could have been avoided.
    On top of that, if someone says that the recession may come for any XYZee reason, won't economist take care of avoiding those things from happening :bab (6):?
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by gurdial
    People have been predicting the next bubble/recession for the last couple of years, the fact is that they are all living in 2008 ie the year,when hardly anyone predicted a crash. As always, a crash/recession/bubble hardly ever comes when it's been predicted/expected.

    In any case the next crash in our stock market should come in 2015-16(following the 8 years rule)...just another useless stat.


    Stock market crash and RE crash are two totally different things. RE may not go down by more than 30%, whereas stock marekt may go down by upto 70% in recession. By the way, I too feel that ideally recession comes every 7-8 years.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    Stock market crash and RE crash are two totally different things. RE may not go down by more than 30%, whereas stock marekt may go down by upto 70% in recession. By the way, I too feel that ideally recession comes every 7-8 years.

    Both have a symbiotic relationship. The magnitude may differ but both correct together in a recession.
    CommentQuote
  • recesssion vs depression

    Originally Posted by gurdial
    Both have a symbiotic relationship. The magnitude may differ but both correct together in a recession.


    for me recession is buying vadapav for 10 bucks and depression is buying vadapav for 50 bucks :):)
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    second I am with people like you in this forum.


    blaming others for own failures eh....nothing new....

    by the way there is no compulsion to be on online forum if you cant stand different views...
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by gurdial
    People have been predicting the next bubble/recession for the last couple of years


    They will get it right once and then live forever in glory......
    CommentQuote
  • Except PUNE and NOIDA RE has softened allover INDIA.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by anildc
    Except PUNE and NOIDA RE has softened allover INDIA.


    Great....how much % has it come down....can someone give real life example...i.e. project X was selling at Rs 5000 psf and now sells at Rs 4500 psf....not an isolated example but representative of general downturn....
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    Great....how much % has it come down....can someone give real life example...i.e. project X was selling at Rs 5000 psf and now sells at Rs 4500 psf....not an isolated example but representative of general downturn....


    well PSF price is not the only indicator for RE markets.. right? If RE was bullish and fundamentally strong, why would RBI classify that as a risk and decrease RE exposure? why RE companies are beaten up in stock market? why loans to RE are getting costlier? why the registration numbers are failing in almost all metro cities?

    RE rates are artificial and supported by black money but that does not mean its supported in buyers also... why many townships in mumbai and pune are again coming back to smaller houses and 1 BHK flats? in Maharashtra Times, there was an article couple of days that in Mumbai people are preferring rentals more and more...

    the old trend is coming up where folks from all over maharashtra (especially Kokan area) will come to Mumbai, rent in chawls (typical Girgaon and Parel area), raise kids and spend full life there and then would buy a house in Pune for retirement.

    can you show metros where rates are increasing as well are registrations are increasing as well?
    CommentQuote
  • When everything is going right, think that something is going wrong. Normal human tendency is to hide. Hide the bad things that he dont want to disclose. He hides it in the view that he thinks he will manage and resovle it somehow. And when there are good thing happening with him, he purposely starts pointing to the things that are going bad with him, trying to hide the good things from being discussed.

    So when the market is too good to everything and no one is in mood of recession, you make a note. Make a note of why everything is going so good!

    In short its impossible to predict!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by punerebuyer
    well PSF price is not the only indicator for RE markets.. right?


    That's what affects me as a end user....rest all I am too resolve those issues...

    A lot of phony discussion and word play does not result in me saving hard cash buying an RE though I have sympathies those who are left out....

    I am not for RE prices going higher....I too want them to come down so I can buy more and bigger.....but just because I wish does not mean those will come down....
    CommentQuote