I am wondering, is it possible that recession will begin from 2012? I have seen many articles on internet about this, and recently one from Gary Shilling (please see the link Paul Farrel: A Recession Is Coming In 2012 And Things Don )

Any thoughts from intellectual people ...

How will it impact on IT and RE sectors?
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    blaming others for own failures eh....nothing new....

    by the way there is no compulsion to be on online forum if you cant stand different views...


    i dont want to start a war of words here but i agree to BlotJab's comments.. your response has nothing to do with the question he asked.. and the fact that he asked a question (stared the thread) indicates intent to discuss... just putting random jokes as a response to something can hardly be considered as a 'different view'

    and now in this response, i have presented a response which is pretty much relevant and has a different view from yours.. lets hope you are willing to accept it..
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  • how to sense a bubble..read here

    A bubble/ scam is often known only when its bursts out. But we can possibly look for some indicators to see whether we are in a bubble.


    Trying to list such indicators here
    1) When everyone believes something is a very good investment ( including the layman/uneducated/elite and all) and can never falter.:bab (41):
    2) When most of your neighbors invest in something and cannot justify how the ( more than average) return can be made.:bab (38):
    3) Newspaper /media focus shifts too much on the investment opportunity and you start feeling that you will miss the 'Bus' , if you do not get onto it now.
    4) There is a strong justification for the thing to be a good investment and 90% of people agree to the justification . There's nothing unique about what you know about the investment.
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  • Originally Posted by punerebuyer
    i dont want to start a war of words here but i agree to BlotJab's comments.. your response has nothing to do with the question he asked.. and the fact that he asked a question (stared the thread) indicates intent to discuss... just putting random jokes as a response to something can hardly be considered as a 'different view'

    and now in this response, i have presented a response which is pretty much relevant and has a different view from yours.. lets hope you are willing to accept it..


    Well you obviously didn't get it. I was only saying that there is no one literally no one who can predict that there will be recession in 2012. So it is a futile question. So it was a direct response to the question. That's one view.

    Respect your view though dont agree with it.
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  • Originally Posted by amolsw
    A bubble/ scam is often known only when its bursts out. But we can possibly look for some indicators to see whether we are in a bubble.


    Trying to list such indicators here
    1) When everyone believes something is a very good investment ( including the layman/uneducated/elite and all) and can never falter.:bab (41):
    2) When most of your neighbors invest in something and cannot justify how the ( more than average) return can be made.:bab (38):
    3) Newspaper /media focus shifts too much on the investment opportunity and you start feeling that you will miss the 'Bus' , if you do not get onto it now.
    4) There is a strong justification for the thing to be a good investment and 90% of people agree to the justification . There's nothing unique about what you know about the investment.



    In modern capitalist economy business cycles - boom - bust - boom are permanent feature and cannot be avoided. They are direct result of human fear and greed.

    Someone said once that a trader has only regrets - regrets about losses incurred and regrets of it could have been multiple times more when winning positions. Thats human emotions and that drives market.

    So markets always overcorrect and overshoot.

    Point is while it is true that every boom will be followed by correction and every correction by next boom, it is difficult to time those. That's where both bulls and bears get caught. The indicators above have been existing for years. It is not today that they have come up. But one can't time when the bust will occur. All said the so called 'irrational exhuberance' may continue another 2 years or it may go bust tomorrow.

    Life is too short to time these swings. So better go for what you can afford. In long run you will have most likely not made wrong decision. It is ultimately a game of probabilities.

    As the saying goes markets are like an escalator in a sky scraper. Keeps going up till the last man on the last floor gets in and then crashes bang down. But until we have the last of the doubters left it may keep deceiving us.
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  • I am not for RE prices going higher....I too want them to come down so I can buy more and bigger.....QUOTE:



    Stoxx you are a cry baby tears in your eyes mar ur vision.
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    In modern capitalist economy business cycles - boom - bust - boom are permanent feature and cannot be avoided. They are direct result of human fear and greed.

    Someone said once that a trader has only regrets - regrets about losses incurred and regrets of it could have been multiple times more when winning positions. Thats human emotions and that drives market.

    So markets always overcorrect and overshoot.

    Point is while it is true that every boom will be followed by correction and every correction by next boom, it is difficult to time those. That's where both bulls and bears get caught. The indicators above have been existing for years. It is not today that they have come up. But one can't time when the bust will occur. All said the so called 'irrational exhuberance' may continue another 2 years or it may go bust tomorrow.

    Life is too short to time these swings. So better go for what you can afford. In long run you will have most likely not made wrong decision. It is ultimately a game of probabilities.

    As the saying goes markets are like an escalator in a sky scraper. Keeps going up till the last man on the last floor gets in and then crashes bang down. But until we have the last of the doubters left it may keep deceiving us.


    THEN YOU WIPE YOUR TEARS .......THERE UR ARE BRILLIANT

    If you can predict the next tsunami then i can predict the next recession but alas all we can have is a warning system.There are many variables, Factors and to complicate things market manipulators....

    SO AS YOU SAID IT Lets buy and live with it.
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  • Originally Posted by anildc
    THEN YOU WIPE YOUR TEARS .......THERE UR ARE BRILLIANT

    If you can predict the next tsunami then i can predict the next recession but alas all we can have is a warning system.There are many variables, Factors and to complicate things market manipulators....

    SO AS YOU SAID IT Lets buy and live with it.


    you seem to be good at personal abuse..I give you that...
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    blaming others for own failures eh....nothing new....

    by the way there is no compulsion to be on online forum if you cant stand different views...


    You didn't understand my sarcasm, which I had to do because you posted some irrelevant things to this thread. And by the way, what failures you taking about?
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    Well you obviously didn't get it. I was only saying that there is no one literally no one who can predict that there will be recession in 2012. So it is a futile question. So it was a direct response to the question. That's one view.

    Respect your view though dont agree with it.


    You think something, write something else and end of the day you say that you were saying totally different then you actually thought at first place. Why don't you say something, which you actually write and most importantly which you actually think at first place.
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  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    You think something, write something else and end of the day you say that you were saying totally different then you actually thought at first place. Why don't you say something, which you actually write and most importantly which you actually think at first place.


    How do you know that I think something and write something. Are you a mind reader of a person totally unknown to you.

    I have said it before and will say it again. I am long term bullish on Indian including Pune RE. Short term I cannot predict and I dont bother to. If there is meaningful correction I'll look at as buying opportunity.

    Too difficult to grasp.....eh.....

    Come to the point than resorting to personal comments.
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  • Originally Posted by anildc
    I am not for RE prices going higher....I too want them to come down so I can buy more and bigger.....QUOTE:



    Stoxx you are a cry baby tears in your eyes mar ur vision.


    :bab (6):
    A good part of 2011 is over...so the chances of a recession in 2012 are less now ....
    may be 2013 :bab (59):
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    you seem to be good at personal abuse..I give you that...


    I did not mean to offend you , all i am saying that your heart longs for all the goodies and in your head you know the truth.
    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/15889-how-to-invest-and-make-money-in-real-estate?t=18110

    The knowledge what to do in a Recession or Boom is more important than predicting a Recession or Boom.
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  • Originally Posted by anildc

    The knowledge what to do in a Recession or Boom is more important than predicting a Recession or Boom.


    well said...
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  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    See the latest news from economics times.

    Can world economy tip over to a double-dip recession? - The Economic Times


    one humble suggestion......please do not read too much in to these things....main stream media are normally the last to look for these things....these are paltry paid journos / bloggers....if they knew anything they would be in wall street not trying to write worthless articles to generate cheap publicity and increase their sales....

    they must have written this 2 dozen times in last two years.

    at least he is honest to declare is vested interest.....

    Let me admit. I have a conflict of interest. My business is to build homes. I would like a nasty recession — double-dip or whatever. Land, steel and cement prices will come down and that is a prospect I look forward to.



    more worryngly the comment to this article.

    I dont know about the author, but I would wish a recessionary scenario... real estate prices are touching the roofs, commodities, gold etc have sky rocketed... everything seems to be imaginary and out of reach of decent earning middle class....


    people like these dont know what they are wishing for.....a recession is no good for anyone apart from the cash rich.....

    after last recession world's rich have become even richer and rest even poorer.....

    at least for posters here one would expect that they would read and see if it is credible and truly substantiates anything...
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