I am wondering, is it possible that recession will begin from 2012? I have seen many articles on internet about this, and recently one from Gary Shilling (please see the link Paul Farrel: A Recession Is Coming In 2012 And Things Don )

Any thoughts from intellectual people ...

How will it impact on IT and RE sectors?
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  • Could you please explain the logic?

    Originally Posted by tarcap
    :bab (6):
    A good part of 2011 is over...so the chances of a recession in 2012 are less now ....
    may be 2013 :bab (59):


    What has passing of 2011 got to do with reduced chances of recession in 2012?

    I thought worsening of economic climate was more relevant!:D

    Of course, if you meant, things are holding out much of 2011 so far and that gives you confidence that they will hold out some more time so 2012 will also pass by ...

    then you must also acknowledge that when situation becomes dire in the meantime, it dowsn't take too long for things to turn bad. Just a month or two is enough to get the slide moving rapidly.

    As far as I am concerned, 2012 is definitely on the cards and maybe early 2013 may see increased difficulty. Another thing. Taking a little pain early is much better than allowing things to go far wrong and taking a lot of pain later.

    So, careful what you wish for! :D

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    What has passing of 2011 got to do with reduced chances of recession in 2012?

    I thought worsening of economic climate was more relevant!:D

    Of course, if you meant, things are holding out much of 2011 so far and that gives you confidence that they will hold out some more time so 2012 will also pass by ...

    then you must also acknowledge that when situation becomes dire in the meantime, it dowsn't take too long for things to turn bad. Just a month or two is enough to get the slide moving rapidly.

    As far as I am concerned, 2012 is definitely on the cards and maybe early 2013 may see increased difficulty. Another thing. Taking a little pain early is much better than allowing things to go far wrong and taking a lot of pain later.

    So, careful what you wish for! :D

    cheers


    Well to start with,

    1) The next recession will not come as a surprise like the last one. Lehman Brothers collapsed over a weekend. This time people are prepared for a recession so no sudden shocks.

    2) There is already so much anticipation and talk about the recession that it has somehow lost its 'fear factor'. Some people are saying the recession has already started while others are completely oblivious of it.

    3) I think what you are seeing now is not another recession but continuation or after effects of recession 2008.

    4) Needless to say, (not relevant though in the context of this thread) PUNE RE is independent of any crisis / recession. It seems PUNE RE / Builders are recession proof. Prices are still rising, people are still buying (how I dont know) but the fact is that we have been crying wolf for a long time now...almost to an extent that wolf no longer scares anyone anymore... (personally I am scared though...)

    In a nutshell, things will go on as they are... atleast for good part of 2012...
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  • No offense. Just kidding. But here is some more ...

    Originally Posted by tarcap
    Well to start with,

    1) The next recession will not come as a surprise like the last one. Lehman Brothers collapsed over a weekend. This time people are prepared for a recession so no sudden shocks.

    2) There is already so much anticipation and talk about the recession that it has somehow lost its 'fear factor'. Some people are saying the recession has already started while others are completely oblivious of it.

    3) I think what you are seeing now is not another recession but continuation or after effects of recession 2008.

    4) Needless to say, (not relevant though in the context of this thread) PUNE RE is independent of any crisis / recession. It seems PUNE RE / Builders are recession proof. Prices are still rising, people are still buying (how I dont know) but the fact is that we have been crying wolf for a long time now...almost to an extent that wolf no longer scares anyone anymore... (personally I am scared though...)

    In a nutshell, things will go on as they are... atleast for good part of 2012...



    Dude,

    Lehman was a surprise only to Dick Fuld (who is lying it was a surprise to him), the US Administration, Wall Street and all people with conflict of interest, who were all knowing this was coming. The others were the 95% of population which refuses to educate itself about the basics!!!

    Rest of the people knew and were warned as early as 2004. Check out Roubini who gave his main address on this topic in 2006 at Jackson hole and was laughed away. Next year, when things got serious (2007), he was sought out by the powers that be about what he had said in 2006. There were many others who were shouting from the rooftop.

    In fact, back in 2006 itself, seeing that it was coming, I started advicing people to start buying gold and myself got out of the US market s/w business into other lucrative areas. You may not believe me, but I was constantly advicing people about this from early 2006 itself!!!

    You are also correct that like 2008 recession was a continuation of the 2000 one which was interrupted by Greenspan blowing the RE bubble, the 2008 one was interrupted by Bernanke blowing the bailout (TARP, etc) and QE bubble. The next one will be a Depression rather than a recession.\; maybe even a Great Depression.

    This time around, the severity of its impact globally should pull down even the builders of Pune! :)

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by anildc
    Except PUNE and NOIDA RE has softened allover INDIA.


    NEWS UPDATE*
    Property Prices Fall in Indian Cities: NHB Residex

    Property prices in seven cities across India dropped by 2.63 per cent, to 17.6 per cent during the January to March quarter, according to the latest data released by the National Housing Bank (NHB). Another five cities have shown a marginal change in prices in the same period. However, three cities showed an increase in property rates by 2.6 per cent to five per cent. NHB’s residential housing price index data or Residex for the first quarter of the 2011 calendar is a comparative study with the previous quarter. Year-on-year, property prices have increased in all 15 cities covered under NHB Residex. The latest NHB Residex results are in contrast to the previous quarter data. During October to December 2010, property prices went up in 13 out of the 15 cities surveyed, compared with the July to September 2010 data. In the remaining two cities, prices had either remained the same or dropped marginally. When asked about the possible range of property price correction in the coming months, NHB Chairman and Managing Director R V Verma did not divulge any figure. “We can’t hazard any guess on property price correction as it may impact the market,” Verma said at a press conference to discuss the trends in the housing sector. The expectation from the over-supply condition that exists now, prices should be corrected, according to Verma. Increase in interest rates has added to stock pile-up in real estate, officials indicated. The cities that have shown significant correction (drop in property prices) during January to March 2011 are Bangalore (-17.6 per cent), Kochi (-14.92 per cent), Faridabad (-6.37 per cent), Hyderabad (-4.6 per cent), Surat (-3.76 per cent), Bhopal (-3.55 per cent) and Jaipur (-2.63 per cent). In Kolkata, prices dipped marginally by 0.77 per cent. Among others, Ahmedabad showed an increase of 0.4 per cent, Chennai 1.66 per cent, Mumbai 1.39 per cent. Patna showed no change. Of those that have witnessed an increase in prices are Pune (5.02 per cent), Lucknow (3.09 per cent), and Delhi (2.64 per cent).

    NHB is planning to add another five cities to the Residex this year, increasing the number to 20 cities. It also wants to widen the coverage — localities within a city that are being considered for determining the prices. This residential price index is aimed at bringing transparency in the property market and helping homebuyers to make informed decisions. The index is compiled from data sourced from lending institutions as well as inputs received from the National Association of Realtors – India (NAR-INDIA).
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  • Originally Posted by anildc
    NEWS UPDATE*
    Property Prices Fall in Indian Cities: NHB Residex

    Property prices in seven cities across India dropped by 2.63 per cent, to 17.6 per cent during the January to March quarter, according to the latest data released by the National Housing Bank (NHB). Another five cities have shown a marginal change in prices in the same period. However, three cities showed an increase in property rates by 2.6 per cent to five per cent. NHB’s residential housing price index data or Residex for the first quarter of the 2011 calendar is a comparative study with the previous quarter. Year-on-year, property prices have increased in all 15 cities covered under NHB Residex. The latest NHB Residex results are in contrast to the previous quarter data. During October to December 2010, property prices went up in 13 out of the 15 cities surveyed, compared with the July to September 2010 data. In the remaining two cities, prices had either remained the same or dropped marginally. When asked about the possible range of property price correction in the coming months, NHB Chairman and Managing Director R V Verma did not divulge any figure. “We can’t hazard any guess on property price correction as it may impact the market,” Verma said at a press conference to discuss the trends in the housing sector. The expectation from the over-supply condition that exists now, prices should be corrected, according to Verma. Increase in interest rates has added to stock pile-up in real estate, officials indicated. The cities that have shown significant correction (drop in property prices) during January to March 2011 are Bangalore (-17.6 per cent), Kochi (-14.92 per cent), Faridabad (-6.37 per cent), Hyderabad (-4.6 per cent), Surat (-3.76 per cent), Bhopal (-3.55 per cent) and Jaipur (-2.63 per cent). In Kolkata, prices dipped marginally by 0.77 per cent. Among others, Ahmedabad showed an increase of 0.4 per cent, Chennai 1.66 per cent, Mumbai 1.39 per cent. Patna showed no change. Of those that have witnessed an increase in prices are Pune (5.02 per cent), Lucknow (3.09 per cent), and Delhi (2.64 per cent).

    NHB is planning to add another five cities to the Residex this year, increasing the number to 20 cities. It also wants to widen the coverage — localities within a city that are being considered for determining the prices. This residential price index is aimed at bringing transparency in the property market and helping homebuyers to make informed decisions. The index is compiled from data sourced from lending institutions as well as inputs received from the National Association of Realtors – India (NAR-INDIA).


    Unless until Mumbai RE prices doesn't go down, I don't see Pune RE is going down.
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Dude,

    Lehman was a surprise only to Dick Fuld (who is lying it was a surprise to him), the US Administration, Wall Street and all people with conflict of interest, who were all knowing this was coming. The others were the 95% of population which refuses to educate itself about the basics!!!

    Rest of the people knew and were warned as early as 2004. Check out Roubini who gave his main address on this topic in 2006 at Jackson hole and was laughed away. Next year, when things got serious (2007), he was sought out by the powers that be about what he had said in 2006. There were many others who were shouting from the rooftop.

    In fact, back in 2006 itself, seeing that it was coming, I started advicing people to start buying gold and myself got out of the US market s/w business into other lucrative areas. You may not believe me, but I was constantly advicing people about this from early 2006 itself!!!

    You are also correct that like 2008 recession was a continuation of the 2000 one which was interrupted by Greenspan blowing the RE bubble, the 2008 one was interrupted by Bernanke blowing the bailout (TARP, etc) and QE bubble. The next one will be a Depression rather than a recession.\; maybe even a Great Depression.

    This time around, the severity of its impact globally should pull down even the builders of Pune! :)

    cheers


    :bab (6):

    1) by surprise, I meant common people in India like me... I remember during 2008 we started fearing Friday's ... as we were not sure which bank or financial institution would go down by Monday...

    2) also i strongly believe that this time the recession (if any) would start and end in Europe and not in the US. Something as dramatic as the fall of EURO might happen... but my guess is that Germany, Luxemburg, France and Scandinavian countries would hold it ...at least till 2013....

    3) 2011 and 2012 are more of less about Arab Awakening, rise and fall of dictators and global (anti)terrorism... an economic recession/meltdown at this stage will not suit the agenda of the Super Powers

    PS: I want to ignore Greece, Spain and Ireland on purpose as I have nothing to defend when it comes to these countries...they give me fever...

    But when in doubt, trust the Wisemen :-)

    lets all hope that prices come down soon (with or without recession) so that we can get on with some serious buying / selling...
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  • Originally Posted by tarcap
    :bab (6):

    1) by surprise, I meant common people in India like me... I remember during 2008 we started fearing Friday's ... as we were not sure which bank or financial institution would go down by Monday...

    2) also i strongly believe that this time the recession (if any) would start and end in Europe and not in the US. Something as dramatic as the fall of EURO might happen... but my guess is that Germany, Luxemburg, France and Scandinavian countries would hold it ...at least till 2013....

    3) 2011 and 2012 are more of less about Arab Awakening, rise and fall of dictators and global (anti)terrorism... an economic recession/meltdown at this stage will not suit the agenda of the Super Powers

    PS: I want to ignore Greece, Spain and Ireland on purpose as I have nothing to defend when it comes to these countries...they give me fever...

    But when in doubt, trust the Wisemen :-)

    lets all hope that prices come down soon (with or without recession) so that we can get on with some serious buying / selling...





    Even though my life's schedule does not permit me frequent trades,definitely not day-tading,investing yes .
    and a no of times i have taken wiseman as a contra indicator ,and i made money more than 50% of time so all in all i made profit ,well not a obscene one ,but yes a decent one....

    mind you, recession or great depression whatever you name it ,is already there of course newspapers have not still started screaming about it,and that is why 95%-98% of population are still believing the feel good factor.
    but yes newspapers will start screaming only when they have tested the patience of even the last bear standing i.e. WISEMAN.
    So when wiseman turns bullish after say X months ,make a point of it as the imminent arrival of recession via the mouth of media---for 2-3% of population who know ,the recession is already there,hidden,with dagger hidden, out to ambush .

    Wiseman-no offence intended :)
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    one humble suggestion......please do not read too much in to these things....main stream media are normally the last to look for these things....these are paltry paid journos / bloggers....if they knew anything they would be in wall street not trying to write worthless articles to generate cheap publicity and increase their sales....

    they must have written this 2 dozen times in last two years.



    unfortunately for us poor souls, main stream media is the only source of information as we dont have any inside info or contacts anywhere.. and we cannot try a personal experience about everything.. life is too short for that..

    also we cannot read each and everything thats published because we also need to work and have a life too...

    sometimes we can see through the news but sometimes we dont.. so we will continue putting those links here in anticipation of someone knowledgeable/insider can endorse/refute these claims...

    i love this forum...
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  • Originally Posted by punerebuyer
    unfortunately for us poor souls, main stream media is the only source of information as we dont have any inside info or contacts anywhere.. and we cannot try a personal experience about everything.. life is too short for that..

    also we cannot read each and everything thats published because we also need to work and have a life too...

    sometimes we can see through the news but sometimes we dont.. so we will continue putting those links here in anticipation of someone knowledgeable/insider can endorse/refute these claims...

    i love this forum...



    ....the plot thickens....


    fair enough.....so if someone puts a link and would like others to interpret then say so instead of pasting the link and saying it proves, substantiates something.....

    why mislead when you yourself are not sure.....

    no one has time to read everything so one normally relies on the person putting the link to have done some due diligence.....if that's not done then I think as a courtesy to other poster a disclaimer that you have not read or understood the link is the least one can do....
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx



    people like these dont know what they are wishing for. ....a recession is no good for anyone apart from the cash rich.....

    after last recession world's rich have become even richer and rest even poorer.....

    at least for posters here one would expect that they would read and see if it is credible and truly substantiates anything...


    Stoxx...

    I don't belong to any camp..but want to remind you the fact that - Loose motions are no good for anyone in normal scenario...but when u had excessive eating over a period....U (even ur Mom or doc) will pray that you have some loose motions (LM):bab (45):...Just to make sure that excessives are flused out....Again excessive LM will be bad...but to some extent ...its always good..:bab (59):..
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  • Originally Posted by fundoo158
    Stoxx...

    I don't belong to any camp..but want to remind you the fact that - Loose motions are no good for anyone in normal scenario...but when u had excessive eating over a period....U (even ur Mom or doc) will pray that you have some loose motions (LM):bab (45):...Just to make sure that excessives are flused out....Again excessive LM will be bad...but to some extent ...its always good..:bab (59):..

    ok stoxx...i know u dont agree with bears...thats good a bold move...
    can you explain the reasons why the RE rates has rised so fast? what has changed so drastic in 2010 that rates increased 50 to 80 %......then 2009
    and more importantly for investors, what will make them think that rates will further increase atleast 20 % every year.....
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  • RBI has done good job today to increase the repo rate today, it is better to suffer today little, rather than go for recession next year due to poor policies. RBI trying hard to make the balance in the market.
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  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    RBI has done good job today to increase the repo rate today, it is better to suffer today little, rather than go for recession next year due to poor policies. RBI trying hard to make the balance in the market.


    close the gate after horse has bolted
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  • I am normally too early!

    Originally Posted by tarcap
    :bab (6):

    1) by surprise, I meant common people in India like me... I remember during 2008 we started fearing Friday's ... as we were not sure which bank or financial institution would go down by Monday...

    2) also i strongly believe that this time the recession (if any) would start and end in Europe and not in the US. Something as dramatic as the fall of EURO might happen... but my guess is that Germany, Luxemburg, France and Scandinavian countries would hold it ...at least till 2013....

    3) 2011 and 2012 are more of less about Arab Awakening, rise and fall of dictators and global (anti)terrorism... an economic recession/meltdown at this stage will not suit the agenda of the Super Powers

    PS: I want to ignore Greece, Spain and Ireland on purpose as I have nothing to defend when it comes to these countries...they give me fever...

    But when in doubt, trust the Wisemen :-)

    lets all hope that prices come down soon (with or without recession) so that we can get on with some serious buying / selling...



    As Vatsalbhai had correctly pointed out, I "get" things too early. Probably because I sense something is not right, then go around the Net searching for the best information and discover people like Roubini and a whole lot of others.

    This could be a reason why I went bearish in 2006 and most people had given up on me by 2008, when the real Recession hit!:D

    Also, I assumed the US would respond to that recession the "usual" way and not by making things FAR worse.

    This time around I'm being cautious. The 2012/2013 timeframe was given in 2010 itself and this gives the US enough time to run through the whole gamut of mechanisms to keep bailing out their economy till, finally, things fall apart.

    Also, while EU will in any case fall apart, the US is sure to get into a severe recession/depression in whatever form they may eventually choose.

    Based on various people I read up on, I was quite convinced about this in mid-2010 itself. But, as usual, too early and therefore a contrarian indicator!

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by stoxxx
    close the gate after horse has bolted


    Well..this gate (RBI's action) is not the gate which horse has bolted...but it is closing of other gates which horse is yet to pass thru...
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