I am wondering, is it possible that recession will begin from 2012? I have seen many articles on internet about this, and recently one from Gary Shilling (please see the link Paul Farrel: A Recession Is Coming In 2012 And Things Don )

Any thoughts from intellectual people ...

How will it impact on IT and RE sectors?
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  • Originally Posted by puser
    what according to u will reduce prices RE...contention is not that one should buy in recession or not but is it good time to buy or not with 80% of amount taken from bank



    I m not totally denying that RE prices will never come down. It will sure show soem downturn but does not mean that each & every builder will reduce it.

    If you see some big metro like Banglore,Mumbai, Delhi etc so many big builders with big projects as compare to pune such kind of Big builders are not here so no problem of cash shortage. Most of the builders are close to politisians,black money so they are strong enough to hold there inventory. Again Pune is close to mumbai so money & customers are flowing from there to pune.

    So I want to convey prices will sure down but in that area & project where no one is interested to buy it. Now dont ask me where are these area.

    So from my perspestive very few chances or expectations of RE prices will down in Pune .
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  • Originally Posted by Gods Given
    I dond know why people are interested in Recession. Due to recession only RE prices will come down & people who are waiting from last few years can buy it ?


    i dont think anyone is interested or want to have recession... they are simply saying that current economic scenario looks like we are heading for recession. one of the side effect of that would be reduction in RE rates...

    so people who have made wise savings in boom time, can take these opportunities...
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  • Originally Posted by Gods Given
    I m not totally denying that RE prices will never come down. It will sure show soem downturn but does not mean that each & every builder will reduce it.

    If you see some big metro like Banglore,Mumbai, Delhi etc so many big builders with big projects as compare to pune such kind of Big builders are not here so no problem of cash shortage. Most of the builders are close to politisians,black money so they are strong enough to hold there inventory. Again Pune is close to mumbai so money & customers are flowing from there to pune.

    So I want to convey prices will sure down but in that area & project where no one is interested to buy it. Now dont ask me where are these area.

    So from my perspestive very few chances or expectations of RE prices will down in Pune .


    Please have a look at this...
    US, Euro debt crises may lower realty rates - Hindustan Times

    The Maharashtra Chambers of Housing Industry (MCHI), the apex body of the builders , denies any affect of the US crises but agrees that reduction is in the offing.

    “There may be some marginal cuts by individual builders,” said Paras Gundecha, president, MCHI.

    Rajesh Vardhan, managing director, Vardhman Builders said, “Builders facing financial burden will definitely give discounts in the coming months.”
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  • Originally Posted by puser
    what according to u will reduce prices RE...contention is not that one should buy in recession or not but is it good time to buy or not with 80% of amount taken from bank


    Actually its a good time, if you think that your bank can go bust in this recession ;)
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  • Originally Posted by ashish18
    Actually its a good time, if you think that your bank can go bust in this recession ;)


    In that case the bank gets taken over by another bank/govt. Does not make any difference to buyer. On the contrary, may be the entity tries to recover the cost from the customers (i.e. earlier no prepayment charges for Bust bank X, now Bank Z which took over throws down that rule book away.)
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  • Real Estate Market

    Real estate market will not affected by any recision
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  • Originally Posted by godrejfrontier
    Real estate market will not affected by any recision


    Let us wait and see....

    Things appreciate only upto a point, once it reaches to such high levels, that there are no takers, then it has to come down to a level where there are few takers.

    Gold is appreciating now, but how many people have deferred their decision to buy. Very soon, Gold Jewellery will be available on installments (i.e. loans) or rent, similar to property. ;)
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  • Originally Posted by mymarji
    Let us wait and see....

    Things appreciate only upto a point, once it reaches to such high levels, that there are no takers, then it has to come down to a level where there are few takers.

    Gold is appreciating now, but how many people have deferred their decision to buy. Very soon, Gold Jewellery will be available on installments (i.e. loans) or rent, similar to property. ;)


    Well said! The way things are going on with Gold, this is what will happen. I remember the scene from 3- Idiots movie where the old lady says that the prices of everything is rising so fast that soon paneer will be available in small packets at jewelers shop LOL. Jokes apart, but the recession is surely coming if you look at the US markets and the unemployment levels there and also the crisis in Europe. India will be affected as well
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  • US jobless claims rise to 414,000

    More Americans filed claims for unemployment insurance last week, underscoring the poor health of the labour market ahead of President Barack Obama’s highly anticipated announcement of a new plan to kick-start job creation.

    US jobless claims rise to 414,000 - FT.com

    In addition to above, here is more which I want to share:-

    Current unemployment is 130 mn, same as that of 2001,
    The avg earning is $16/hr, same as that of 2001,
    The inflation however, is more than 16% compared to 2001 which literally means people earn less & spend more for basic survival.

    Also, increasing the debt threshold is just postponing today's death tomorrow & not removing the core problem of economic crisis.

    Btw, it is expected that on 16 Sep 2011, the RBI will hike the rates by additional 25 bps or 0.25%.
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  • no recession in next three years US election round the corner and i feel no interest rate hike now buy shares now and hve fun and most importantly up election in india so government will ensure happy happy also kalmadi raja in jail so dont expect any ghotala and blast now gud times for india thnx to Anna!!!!
    Originally Posted by realacres
    More Americans filed claims for unemployment insurance last week, underscoring the poor health of the labour market ahead of President Barack Obama’s highly anticipated announcement of a new plan to kick-start job creation.

    US jobless claims rise to 414,000 - FT.com

    In addition to above, here is more which I want to share:-

    Current unemployment is 130 mn, same as that of 2001,
    The avg earning is $16/hr, same as that of 2001,
    The inflation however, is more than 16% compared to 2001 which literally means people earn less & spend more for basic survival.

    Also, increasing the debt threshold is just postponing today's death tomorrow & not removing the core problem of economic crisis.

    Btw, it is expected that on 16 Sep 2011, the RBI will hike the rates by additional 25 bps or 0.25%.
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  • Originally Posted by pachaurip
    no recession in next three years US election round the corner and i feel no interest rate hike now buy shares now and hve fun and most importantly up election in india so government will ensure happy happy also kalmadi raja in jail so dont expect any ghotala and blast now gud times for india thnx to Anna!!!!

    You will see 2 big gafla coming out soon:-

    1. That of oil in which RIL (Reliance) was favored by Govt & ONGC causing loss of several thousand crores to the Govt by RIL,

    2. Air India, where Praful Patel took bribes from private airlines, especially Jet leading the loss to Air India & exchequer. The debt of Air India before junk Praful Patel of NCP became Civil Aviation Minister was just INR 29 Cr. Now, it is around INR 20,000 Cr .
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  • Originally Posted by realacres
    You will see 2 big gafla coming out soon:-

    1. That of oil in which RIL (Reliance) was favored by Govt & ONGC causing loss of several thousand crores to the Govt by RIL,

    2. Air India, where Praful Patel took bribes from private airlines, especially Jet leading the loss to Air India & exchequer. The debt of Air India before junk Praful Patel of NCP became Civil Aviation Minister was just INR 29 Cr. Now, it is around INR 20,000 Cr .


    Nothing will happen with RIL, Ambani every party ko hafta deta hai..
    See, even BJP don't objected on the CAG report...
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  • Originally Posted by realacres


    2. Air India, where Praful Patel took bribes from private airlines, especially Jet leading the loss to Air India & exchequer. The debt of Air India before junk Praful Patel of NCP became Civil Aviation Minister was just INR 29 Cr. Now, it is around INR 20,000 Cr .


    Screw this bobada Pawar and his party .. How come they are in all the scams ??? .. See the Old news below .. It shows the link between Cong + NCP and 2G Scam :bab (45):

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  • Govt to consider DLF's plan to sell Pune SEZ, next week

    Govt to consider DLF's plan to sell Pune SEZ, next week - Indian Express

    What is happening in Real estate?...DLF is selling the land...that too, in Pune.

    Besides the DLF proposal, the BoA will consider requests for extension of time from 44 SEZ developers, including Mukesh Ambani-promoted Navi Mumbai SEZ and Raheja SEZ for implementing their projects.

    The extension of time has been sought in the backdrop of slowdown in the real estate and problems relating to land acquisition.

    Good news are ahead for buyers...In festival season, Stamp Duty Free, Covered Car Parking-Nil charges, Floor Rise-5 Rs after 9 th Floor, etc...
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  • It seems like Europe will be in recession in 2012. But I am not sure about India and US. But one thing is sure we are in one special and unpredictable economic situation, nobody knows what will happen to the economy of India in 2012.

    Some experts are saying that GDP may go below 7% ( I read the news today in moneycontrol.com). Dollar is getting strength, 1 dollar = 51 Rs mark is getting tested.
    Rupee can move to 58 if breaks 52, says CLSA - CNBC-TV18 -

    Last time it happened when we were in recession (early 2009), does it mean that we are already under recession (global)?

    Looks like investor with cash will get golden opportunity in stock market in next 6-8 months, and first time home buyer may get upto 50% discount in under construction project if investors panic and start selling their flats (which ultimately affect the sales of new projects).

    It is wait and watch game (as somebody had said in early 2008).
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