I am wondering, is it possible that recession will begin from 2012? I have seen many articles on internet about this, and recently one from Gary Shilling (please see the link Paul Farrel: A Recession Is Coming In 2012 And Things Don )

Any thoughts from intellectual people ...

How will it impact on IT and RE sectors?
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  • Originally Posted by BlotJab
    It seems like Europe will be in recession in 2012. But I am not sure about India and US. But one thing is sure we are in one special and unpredictable economic situation, nobody knows what will happen to the economy of India in 2012.

    Some experts are saying that GDP may go below 7% ( I read the news today in moneycontrol.com). Dollar is getting strength, 1 dollar = 51 Rs mark is getting tested.
    Rupee can move to 58 if breaks 52, says CLSA - CNBC-TV18 -

    Last time it happened when we were in recession (early 2009), does it mean that we are already under recession (global)?

    Looks like investor with cash will get golden opportunity in stock market in next 6-8 months, and first time home buyer may get upto 50% discount in under construction project if investors panic and start selling their flats (which ultimately affect the sales of new projects).

    It is wait and watch game (as somebody had said in early 2008).



    Absolutely agree with you BlotJab, looking at current market situation wait and watch game feels more secure for RE buyers :bab (35):
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  • Originally Posted by godrejfrontier
    Real estate market will not affected by any recision

    If wishes were the Horses.......
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  • Should i wait for recession to come to buy a flat will get in cheaper rates:D.But what if it doesnt come it will be out of reach.Totally confused.:bab (3):
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  • ^^If you are buying to stay there, then go ahead. Don't wait for a price correction and once you buy, don't think about the price and reduction etc.

    Even if you consider of buying another and selling this once in the distant future, you will get a proper appreciation.

    So each one's situation is different. You should not feel later that you should have bought when it was affordable. So, evaluate your situation and stick to you decision whether to buy now or delay.
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  • Originally Posted by mymarji
    ^^If you are buying to stay there, then go ahead. Don't wait for a price correction and once you buy, don't think about the price and reduction etc.

    Even if you consider of buying another and selling this once in the distant future, you will get a proper appreciation.

    So each one's situation is different. You should not feel later that you should have bought when it was affordable. So, evaluate your situation and stick to you decision whether to buy now or delay.


    FDI in retail will boost the RE. Now prepare for another RE boom.
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  • Originally Posted by Saurabh01
    FDI in retail will boost the RE. Now prepare for another RE boom.


    I don't think so. Those companies which open shop have to sell at a very high discount cutting their profits. And American companies don't venture where there are no profits.

    My guess is that the Chinese will capture most of the retail market. They are known to sell at a cheap rate and even make decent profits on that. so, be ready to welcome our chini-bhais. Chung Chee ? Hon Kong ani King Kong!!!
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  • yes definite recession

    I think it could be correct for price correction upto 30% soon. becasue builders are having huge inventory and same with investors. now fear among builders are gripping thats why many advertisments in all india news paper from pune lobby, then frequent exhibitions to find bakaras, then frequent desperate calls to customers, bank home loans are dipping drastically overall recession in india is also waiting becasue of corrupt govt. anotother big scam means fall of govt and election and no new reforms.........overall all buyers should wait untill correction. whatif european union falls .......govt falls........I agree .........buyers should avoid builders exhibition in pune or even if going then just for fun of builders and look at their faces


    Also for buyers to think if properties are getting sold out then why so many property exhibitions for find bakaras......guys dont get cheated from pune builder lobby.....there is one rule of elasticity....if things gets streched beyond limit then it rebound with double speed or its broken.......property prices increased in last 6-10 months unreasobably , it means it has to rebound back......it is nature rule....believe on nature . just avoid any buying untill you see see 30% reduction
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  • One new thing is being happening in Bangalore. Sobha Forestview, which was trying to sell their project, claimed that that project is fully booked. This was about 3-5 months back, now is again advertising heavily. And in fact they are organizing Family Outings at their property, to attract families in the hope some apartments can be sold off.

    Strange..way of begging.....for once I am happy that these idiots have been made to beg.
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  • Originally Posted by shahkushan
    In that case the bank gets taken over by another bank/govt. Does not make any difference to buyer. On the contrary, may be the entity tries to recover the cost from the customers (i.e. earlier no prepayment charges for Bust bank X, now Bank Z which took over throws down that rule book away.)


    All the banks were not taken over in 2008-09. Why would you want to take over something whose asset value in -90B$, if govt. is not paying that much money to you. even similar things happened in business. That's the reason no one wants to be a creditor for long in business.
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  • Originally Posted by Gods Given
    I dond know why people are interested in Recession. Due to recession only RE prices will come down & people who are waiting from last few years can buy it ?

    Same time the ability to buy will also affect. so many things will affest nor only RE. please recession will never drop RE prices spcifically Pune RE prices. If it will drop at what percentage ,its already overhyped for eg. Kothrud earlier it was Rs.3500-4000 psqft band now 6000-7000 band if due torecession it will come down by 10% not more than that hw much it will be ?

    Guys either you can increase your ability to purchase by paying high down payment or comprmise on certain aspects like size of flat, location etc. Dont realy on recession it is not a answer for your question.


    Whether its Pune or Gurgaon? The property will finally find its market price - but these things take time - may be even 5 years. over the long term most of the property will give you a 10-12% annualized return. The 60 lacs flat bought 3 years back is being sold at 90 lacs that is just 8% p.a. most of the prices in RE from here are going ti give < 10% p.a. return over next 5 years.
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  • Originally Posted by AmitMM
    wiseman as you have been waiting for the RE price to come down lets also wait for the unitech shares to come down!!!
    Last time it gave me huge returns from 33 to 40...in afew months

    meanwhile i feel unitech has bottomed out for now and added few more at 29..

    ( i love keynes quote When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?:):))


    To renew our old debate
    and to let you know that you have already lost 20% on this one. and whatever price you are imagining is going to take a veryyyy longgg time.
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  • Originally Posted by ashish18
    The 60 lacs flat bought 3 years back is being sold at 90 lacs that is just 8% p.a.


    It's actually 14.5% p.a return.
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  • How did you calculate this ?
    With compounded quarterly this comes to 14%.
    Originally Posted by ashish18
    The 60 lacs flat bought 3 years back is being sold at 90 lacs that is just 8% p.a.
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