I have got confirmed news from one of family friend who works with one of the reputed builders (from Pune), that property market in Pune is getting worse day by day. Many people who has signed but not made agreements are cancelling the deals (due to job conditions). Plenty of new projects are at High Risk. Many wise builders stopped the launch of new projects (including Paranjpe, DSK, Kumar).
People don't have money to pay EMI. Investors are not getting good rents. They want to sell off.
All in all, by Diwali rates will be down, if not the same.

You still can buy a flat if you have secured job and enough of money in hand. Those who want to take loan (more than 10L), please don't take risk.

Sansona
Read more
Reply
768 Replies
Sort by :Filter by :
  • hi, Realacres
    if acquiring a land with clear tilte, zero encroachment, no litigations was tht simple then everyone would hv opted tht way and could hv become builder. its not tht simple to purchase a land, submit layout, get sanctions from PMC and deal with contractors to build a home.
    as per me, it would be wise to choose a flat with tht builder who is less greedy, delivers better than others, sticks with some of his commitments, and last but not least the flat is within ur reach and will ultimately provide happiness to u & ur lovedones.

    sam...
    CommentQuote
  • I thinks there are multiple reason behind the RE cost will not go below the current level-

    a) Even the cost of construction is also getting high..for example the daily basis worker who work at construction site cost 250 per day. Two years before the workers used to get 100-125 per day..
    So every cost is toward the north..

    b) Even the most of the builders specially in Aundh annexe area has bought the land at high cost..

    c) Builder needs to pay the good money to govt. authority for various reasons

    d) and most important builder need selected ppl who have good maney and reday to purcahse the propert at competitive price. Being a IT destination, Pune have that selected ppl who can buy the flat

    e) Even if builder is reday to reduce the per square feet price, he will catch you in another way like will chanrge you more as a MSEB charges, Society chanrges, Legal charges etc..
    CommentQuote
  • The complete Bear Market playout ...

    Originally Posted by ash7979
    if he meant that then ,plz tell me in how many decades:D

    This is only 10% of current value..I can believe in worst case DOW going till 4000-5000 but Can not believe DOW going till 1000 Mark!!!



    Ash,

    m_square is right when he says that it might come there!

    There is a school of thought which follows price charting or technical analysis (they do fundamentals as well). There are many techniques within charting itself and one of the more powerful ones is the Wave Theory. RN Eliott's Wave Theory is only one of the many theories and is quite powerful and accurate (like palmistry, astrology and Vaastu it's accuracy depends on the practitioner! :D). And Bob Prechter is only one of the many theorists (though he is the most vocal). Please note that no one is perfect and in the 1970s, when he was entering this field he did fail a coule of times in his predictions, though currently, his organization has been rather accurate in their predictions! Here is a link to another one I found interesting ...
    http://www.safehaven.com/article-14073.htm

    And the chartists believe the following:

    1. This time around there are waves of different frequencies all converging in this time period. The Cycle, Supercycle and Grand Supercycle waves are not only converging, they are also heading towards a major bottom at the Grand Supercycle level (i.e, 300 years cycle).

    2. The strength and depth of the fall this time around is more than the 1930s fall (in the first year). Therefore the possibility of this fall being at least as bad as the one in 1930s is quite high.

    3. We are currently in the leg 2 rally after the leg 1 fall from 14100 to 6500 on the Dow.

    4. The next leg 3 downwards is usually the strongest and deepest leg of the 5 leg cycle. This leg is targetted at reaching 5000 or just below. IT is expected to start late 2009 or at most early 2010.

    The fundamental reasons for this fall (which will come later as justification for the fall by people trying to rationalise it) will be the failure of the stimulus program, renewed increase in foreclosures, renewed increase in unemployment (rising to around 12% upwards, which is 18% up if you take total unemployment), renewed failure of large banks (Citi, JP Morgan, etc) and a deepening of the deflationary wave sweeping across the globe.

    To answer your question, final bottom may take 4 years from the start or more. Target date is around late 2012. The depression may take much longer to complete and may exceed a decade before new bull markets are established.

    You are of course free to completely rubbish this theory as many have already done!!! :D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • If you "DO" believe this theory,they why not you "SHORT" on DOW you can make 10 time profit in 4 years (by 2012) as per your prediction ....

    If, stock market is so easy to predict (ACCURATELY) the every predictor may become much more richer than "Bill gates":D:D:D

    And what you think that US govt will allow DOW to go down at that level I mean below 1000??? if that ever happened whole US would be wiped out & it will become a developing country like INDIA...I can accept US downfall in coming DECADES,but not at this RIDICULOUS level !!! and that I said in DECADES not in 4 years what this theory say!!!
    CommentQuote
  • Dow 6500 was "RIDICULOUS" level in May 2007!!!

    Originally Posted by ash7979
    If you believe "DO" this theory, they why not you "SHORT" on DOW you can make 10 time profit in 4 years (by 2012) as per your prediction ....

    If, stock market is so easy to predict (ACCURATELY) the every predictor may become much more richer than "Bill gates":D:D:D

    And what you think that US govt will allow DOW to go down at that level I mean below 1000??? if that ever happened whole US would be wiped out & it will become a developing country like INDIA...I can accept US downfall in coming DECADES, but not at this RIDICULOUS level !!! and that I said in DECADES not in 4 years what this theory say!!!



    Ash,

    If you asked 1000 people in June 2007 whether Dow will EVER go down to 6500 again and that too within 20 months , ALL 1000 people would have said, "RIDICULOUS"!!!:D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Ash,

    If you asked 1000 people in June 2007 whether Dow will EVER go down to 6500 again and that too within 20 months , ALL 1000 people would have said, "RIDICULOUS"!!!:D

    cheers

    vivek patil, an analyst himself, and a follower of this wave theory believes that senseks can go up to 50K. what are your views on that?
    CommentQuote
  • Yeah, I agree that was the case...so, what you say abt BSE/NSE....

    I have some money I have reserved to buy a house, now it seems that buying house is not good investment in scenario, so I can put that money in Indian stock market & can make some money...So please share some good advice on NSE/BSE than DOW....Let me see how accurate this prediction could be

    Originally Posted by wiseman
    Ash,

    If you asked 1000 people in June 2007 whether Dow will EVER go down to 6500 again and that too within 20 months , ALL 1000 people would have said, "RIDICULOUS"!!!:D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Patience ...

    Originally Posted by ash7979
    Yeah, I agree that was the case...so, what you say abt BSE/NSE....

    I have some money I have reserved to buy a house, now it seems that buying house is not good investment in scenario, so I can put that money in Indian stock market & can make some money...So please share some good advice on NSE/BSE than DOW....Let me see how accurate this prediction could be



    It takes people at least 20 years in business to learn patience. If you tried really hard, you could reduce that period to 15! :D

    Currently we are right at the top of the relief rally from 8000 to 16000. You might notice that the previous 2 bear markets (1992 ans 2000) both rallies ended when 100% was hit (like it has now). Buying now into the market may give you another 10-15% (most people expect 17000 so you can expect the market to stop short and then give way again). On the other hand, decline can go back all the way to 8000, if the conditions in the US takes a turn for the worse (merely reflecting the real underlying timebombs lying around in the vaults of the FED and major banks). So a 1:8 Gain/Loss probability is a perfect recipe for disaster. If you had bought at 8800, you would have had a 10:1 ratio for gain/loss.

    One needs to sit on ones cash for some time to see which way the wind is starting to blow decisively!!! The kep word is decisive as that would have established the trend. Once the trend is established you can then decide to jump accordingly.

    I would wait till Dec 2009 or even early 2010 to see if this bear market has truly ended as the bulls say or is there still much more to come. Then decide. MEanwhile, RE prices may tank another 10% - 20% (to your luck) and you may have earned some interest on the cash, so, net-net your loan outlay may decrease substantially?!

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • He was talking about the next 21 years!

    Originally Posted by Vinod Gupte
    vivek patil, an analyst himself, and a follower of this wave theory believes that senseks can go up to 50K. what are your views on that?


    His period under consideration was 21 years for that target! In between anything could happen!:D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Vivek Patil Predict for ICICI Direct...and prdict for 50K....

    Another, one on other web site will say it will tank to 5K...

    So, I found these technical analyst not very accurate...I am FIRM believer of Fundamental analysis & very much uncomfortable with these technical analyst (Vivek Patil ,Praksah GABA etc etc)..

    Originally Posted by Vinod Gupte
    vivek patil, an analyst himself, and a follower of this wave theory believes that senseks can go up to 50K. what are your views on that?
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    His period under consideration was 21 years for that target! In between anything could happen!:D

    cheers

    thank you. but do you believe that money kept in the market with 20-30 years horizon is a goot bet?
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by ash7979
    Vivek Patil Predict for ICICI Direct...and prdict for 50K....

    Another, one on other web site will say it will tank to 5K...

    So, I found these technical analyst not very accurate...I am FIRM believer of Fundamental analysis & very much uncomfortable with these technical analyst (Vivek Patil ,Praksah GABA etc etc)..

    i agree that going by the fundamentals is a safer bet but when you have people like scamalinga raju around, you are not even sure of that. but yes, you win some you lose some. investing and not trading is the key.
    CommentQuote
  • What the sense to predict for 21 years??? who has seen that 21 years...This guy Vivek Patil will run away in that period of time, so who to blame if his prediction wont come TRUE:D:D You yourself said that anything can happen in between, that was my point as well, so this prediction is useless...I also can predict that Sen will go till 21K again in next decade BUT anything happen in between..Does it make any sense????

    But I can definably predict that BHEL will go at least at 10K in next 10 years on fundamental analysis (based on PE)....and that is the BEST way to ANALYSIS and technical way of analysis has a better term to name it, that is "SPECULATION" in simple words..."GAMBLING":D

    Originally Posted by wiseman
    His period under consideration was 21 years for that target! In between anything could happen!:D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by sam2008
    hi, Realacres
    if acquiring a land with clear tilte, zero encroachment, no litigations was tht simple then everyone would hv opted tht way and could hv become builder. its not tht simple to purchase a land, submit layout, get sanctions from PMC and deal with contractors to build a home.
    as per me, it would be wise to choose a flat with tht builder who is less greedy, delivers better than others, sticks with some of his commitments, and last but not least the flat is within ur reach and will ultimately provide happiness to u & ur lovedones.

    sam...

    I have personally visted the sites & have 5 properties with clear title etc. in my list. I have direct contact with people who deal in land for various builders in Pune & Mumbai. I get the verification done from the town planning dept. about future development too. As far as sanctions are concerned, it can be done in one month flat, the only thing which matters while dealing in RE is that you require right contacts at right places. For me, land purchase & getting sanctions is a piece of cake, (I know a person who got agricultural land converted to NA in under-20 days!!) the only problem is that the owners are asking for 50%+ amount in cash; which is spoiling my calculations as of now.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Vinod Gupte
    i agree that going by the fundamentals is a safer bet but when you have people like scamalinga raju around, you are not even sure of that. but yes, you win some you lose some. investing and not trading is the key.


    agreed. So anyone has tips for top ten BSE/NSE stocks for "investment" for a period of 5-10 years ?
    CommentQuote