I have got confirmed news from one of family friend who works with one of the reputed builders (from Pune), that property market in Pune is getting worse day by day. Many people who has signed but not made agreements are cancelling the deals (due to job conditions). Plenty of new projects are at High Risk. Many wise builders stopped the launch of new projects (including Paranjpe, DSK, Kumar).
People don't have money to pay EMI. Investors are not getting good rents. They want to sell off.
All in all, by Diwali rates will be down, if not the same.

You still can buy a flat if you have secured job and enough of money in hand. Those who want to take loan (more than 10L), please don't take risk.

Sansona
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  • Originally Posted by ash7979
    What the sense to predict for 21 years??? who has seen that 21 years...This guy Vivek Patil will run away in that period of time, so who to blame if his prediction wont come TRUE:D:D You yourself said that anything can happen in between, that was my point as well, so this prediction is useless...I also can predict that Sen will go till 21K again in next decade BUT anything happen in between..Does it make any sense????

    But I can definably predict that BHEL will go at least at 10K in next 10 years on fundamental analysis (based on PE)....and that is the BEST way to ANALYSIS and technical way of analysis has a better term to name it, that is "SPECULATION" in simple words..."GAMBLING":D


    Could never believe folks who predict things for such long term of 21 years. Anything more than 6-8 years is extremely difficult to predict, as things change drastically based on technology, innovations, politics, culture, ....

    One defenitely had to relook the portfolios every 6 months and adjust it to market conditions and the emerging trends.
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  • Originally Posted by tsongt
    agreed. So anyone has tips for top ten BSE/NSE stocks for "investment" for a period of 5-10 years ?

    See if you can get someone who is involved in 'Dabba Trading' on Dalal Street. The risk is high, but in anycase you get the shares at price less (in case of IPOs) than that of market rates & they know how to manipulate the stocks. Also there exists facility of convertible debentures which companies like Reliance manipulate with precision.

    I am of the firm opinion that actual economic scenario is far different than what market shows because market not only depends on the outlook but the ability of companies to manipulate that outlook.

    In stock market, money can be made even in falling markets though everyday may not be a Sunday!! People made money even in Satyam, purchased at INR 14/share & sold at INR 103/share!

    * More than the entry in the market, it is the exit which matters more. Always remember this.
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  • Originally Posted by tsongt
    Could never believe folks who predict things for such long term of 21 years. Anything more than 6-8 years is extremely difficult to predict, as things change drastically based on technology, innovations, politics, culture, ....

    True. No one predicted the current depression only after the 1930s, nor the sub-prime crisis. Working for Lehman Bros was a matter of pride just 2 years ago. The funniest part:-
    Just one war of US with Iran/North Korea or a terrorist strike in US. It is sufficient to bring down the markets down by 50% in one day!:D
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  • Centeral Government is planning for establishment of Committee to control the property rates after the election. ]http://maharashtratimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4861449.cms
    Afterward hopefully property rates will come down !!
    Afterward hopefully property rates will come down !!
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  • my thought on analysts and predictions in StockMarket

    Analysts do their job and the folks who know how to make money in stockmarket do their job too. There is no correlation between these two. Simply put, if i know how to make money in stocks why should I be an analyst ?

    Market pricing is based on psychology. Fundamental analysis is based on data analysis. Its not possible to analyze solely on a balance sheet, or solely on what everyone else is thinking.
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  • Methinks

    Market pricing is based on psychology. Fundamental analysis is based on data analysis. Its not possible to analyze solely on a balance sheet, or solely on what everyone else is thinking.

    Fundamentals might be OK for base price, but trends r more based on sentiments rather than fundas. the prices of stocks not being static, but dependent on demand vs supply, the wave might be the better way to predict stock price rather than only fundamentals which come into play only at the extreme ends of valuations.

    Fundamentals might be OK for base price, but trends r more based on sentiments rather than fundas. the prices of stocks not being static, but dependent on demand vs supply, the wave might be the better way to predict stock price rather than only fundamentals which come into play only at the extreme ends of valuations.
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  • I doubt if he will run away!

    Originally Posted by ash7979
    What the sense to predict for 21 years??? who has seen that 21 years...This guy Vivek Patil will run away in that period of time, so who to blame if his prediction wont come TRUE:D:D You yourself said that anything can happen in between, that was my point as well, so this prediction is useless...I also can predict that Sen will go till 21K again in next decade BUT anything happen in between..Does it make any sense????

    But I can definably predict that BHEL will go at least at 10K in next 10 years on fundamental analysis (based on PE)....and that is the BEST way to ANALYSIS and technical way of analysis has a better term to name it, that is "SPECULATION" in simple words..."GAMBLING"



    I don't think Vivek Patil will run away, though he may be unavailable for other reasons!

    You are absolutely right. Short term trading is 100% speculation. Most people are conditioned from birth to think of speculation in the same lines of plague or cancer!!! To be avoided at all costs. This is throwback to our ancestors generations where that was the value system.

    What the same people don't recognise is that, any financial decision is based on speculation. Example, when you buy RE in the assumption that it will rise in the future (I can show you many people who bought in 1995 and got stuck for 10 years. Also people who are sitting on property under litigation for 18 years). Same is the case with stocks or any other financial instrument. When you say Govt Bonds are "safe" at 6% return, also remember that it is 100% guaranteed to reduce the real value of your money when inflation averages above 6% over the long term!!! So, what is safe? And if it is not safe, then it is speculative!!! :D So, I run a small 100% speculative fund where every member is fully aware that all the money can disappear and even signs an agreement to that effect; and so they put in only a tiny fraction of their assets ( < 1%) into it. Last 5 months, this fund has returned well over 200% (can't tell you how much :)), so the high risk has been rewarded with high returns.

    Coming to a 21 year projection, it is not completely useless. Once can use this target and an accompanying wave structure to take long term bets (even with things like RE) and figure out when to exit and re-enter to make the maximum out of the swings. So, the longer the period of prediction (assuming it is reasonably accurate) greater the returns as you have the power of time and compounding on your side. So, there is big merit in getting long term predictions even reasonably right!

    If I'm a believer that 5000 Dow is going to happen in the next 1 year, I will take far out of the money puts for next 1 year and make a big packet.

    Why? With Nifty at 4700 and me expecting it to hit 4200 or thereabouts, I can take 4200 puts (Aug or Sep) currently trading at Rs35 and see it go upto Rs.250 if Nifty hits 4200 within next 2 weeks which is a 600% return on investment in 2 weeks!!! If it doesn't, there are other exit strategies!:D

    A LESSON
    ---------
    Finally, dude, if you think that you can predict that BHEL will definitely go to 10k, be warned. There is no such thing as definite as far as the future is concerned. Back in the 1990s there was this nearly blue chip Arvind Mills that was trading at Rs.300 and they called in McKinsey (the big daddy of strategic consulting) to help them become the king of their business. So, these guys told them to go around buying up various mills in EU and US and they guaranteed that within 3 years this $300 million company would become a $1 billion company and took a big fat fee for that (in those days 1 billion was a really big sum of money!). The company faithfully followed.

    Then the bottom fell out of the denim and cotton market and the company tanked so far that it defaulted on debt. When they restructured in 2002, I bought it at Rs.8-10, predicting Rs.115 in 5 years. In the subsequent rally, it went as far as Rs.160 (I got out around 140). It then fell to Rs.12 recently. So, be careful about being definite about any financial asset!!! There are too many RIPs where people were "definite" about their views! Take a flexible view with exit options for various outcomes...

    cheers
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  • Saw this report on CNBC:-
    IIM (B), one of the best management schools in India could not place all the students in campus interviews!! The situation is especially grim for those who did MBA in Finance. They are jobless right from the day they passed out last year. Even ISB prospects of pay package is not promising, not to forget the INR 15L/annum fees.

    If such is the situation of IIM, ISBs etc., imagine what would be for those of regular colleges.
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  • sports too is showing effects

    yesterday i saw in ESPN that the prize money for some of the Golf and Tennis tournaments are getting affected as the sponsors have backed off.

    Argentenia has delayed the soccer season because of recession and lesser sponsors.
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  • Originally Posted by tsongt
    yesterday i saw in ESPN that the prize money for some of the Golf and Tennis tournaments are getting affected as the sponsors have backed off.

    Argentenia has delayed the soccer season because of recession and lesser sponsors.

    Honda has pulled out of F1 racing due to cash crunch.
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  • Top Nine Listed Real Estate Firms Post a 76% Dip in Profit and 57% Fall in Sales

    August 6, 2009
    IRN

    India’s struggling realty industry may have sprouted some green shoots of late, but the top nine listed real estate firms posted a 76% dip in profit and 57% fall in sales in the June quarter, prompting the segment leader to observe that the industry is not “completely out of the woods”. Analysts said the revival in demand could improve things, especially in light of a government subsidy for loans taken for affordable housing, but warned that a possible price war between players sitting on huge inventories could spoil the scene. “The recovery of the sector will depend a lot on the sustenance of demand,” said Shailesh Kanani, a real estate analyst with Angel Broking.

    Rupesh Sankhe, another real estate analyst with Centrum Broking, felt low-priced homes will continue to drive up demand , even though it may not be, “anywhere close to what we saw in 2006 and 2007”. DLF, India’s largest listed real estate developer, sold 2.5 million sqft of home space in Delhi and Bangalore in June quarter and wants to launch another 16 million sqft of residential space this fiscal. DLF reported a 79% decline in profit and 57% slide in sales for the June quarter.

    “There has been a reasonable revival in demand for homes not just in low-cost or mid-income , but also for high-end ,” DLF vicechairman Rajiv Singh told an analyst conference call on Friday. His immediate competitor, Unitech, reported 63% decline in profit with sales down by half. “Property prices have come down and so has the interest rate. That’s why home buyers are again looking at the property market ,” said R Nagraju, head of corporate planning at Unitech. The firm is targeting to sell a total of 30 million sqft of space this fiscal. Other realty players Indiabulls Real Estate, Parsvnath, Omaxe, HDIL, Akruti, Sobha and Purvankara too have reported decline in profits up to 95% for the June quarter. Parsvnath chairman Pradeep Jain said the worst was over for the sector and demand had started picking up. But the pick-up in demand hasn’t really erased all concerns as DLF’s Rajiv Singh said the sector was still not “completely out of the woods.”

    Much of the new bookings received in residential projects have been in what developers call ‘affordable’ category or homes priced between Rs 20-35 lakh. Encouraged by the response , more developers are readying to launch homes in this segment. The tax benefits announced recently by the government for smaller homes is likely to act as additional incentive for projects in the category. “Supply is likely to increase faster than the demand in the residential market, as many developers, who had been postponing their launches for a long time are now launching new projects ,” says another analyst with a Mumbai-based brokerage firm, who didn’t want to be named. He says prices may correct further as new supplies hit the market.

    Mr Sankhe of Centrum believes the scope for price correction in low-price segment is limited, but high-end homes can still see property prices drop at least 10%. Some developers such as HDIL and privately held Lodha developers have claimed that prices have already started firming up in Mumbai. But analysts as well as some developers, including DLF and Unitech, say price hike would hit demand and not be good for the sector at this stage.
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  • Down & Down

    If rentals r down : the sale prices also should follow

    But Pune bldrs r immune to eco fundamentals

    Siing the situation

    Methinks:

    The RE space is going to stagnate for some more time

    Its going to continue to I/II qtr next yr, before u see some sales in noticeable numbers.

    The June spurt was due to election effect.

    Bldrs have foolishly raised some prices driving away more customers than

    achieving sales.

    Know some people who have finally given up and wait for sanity.

    Some r now concentrating on saving and building own house.

    Personally i m fatigued by the Bull crap told in RE.
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  • Today's Indian express has an interesting article on real estate.


      Pune leads the country in demand vs supply gap. Too many empty flats no buyers. Bombay follows pune.
      More than 60% projects delayed and average delay of 8 months.
      Real estate gurus warning against price rise which would kill slight recovery in market.
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  • Info

    Ya nice articles.

    Sakal also carries nice articles and problem solving box.

    TOI is just pure crap and ADs paper on saturday.
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