I have got confirmed news from one of family friend who works with one of the reputed builders (from Pune), that property market in Pune is getting worse day by day. Many people who has signed but not made agreements are cancelling the deals (due to job conditions). Plenty of new projects are at High Risk. Many wise builders stopped the launch of new projects (including Paranjpe, DSK, Kumar).
People don't have money to pay EMI. Investors are not getting good rents. They want to sell off.
All in all, by Diwali rates will be down, if not the same.

You still can buy a flat if you have secured job and enough of money in hand. Those who want to take loan (more than 10L), please don't take risk.

Sansona
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  • Originally Posted by Prasaddeshpande

    I still feel the demand for budget homes (15 to 25 lakh) is going to increase.
    I really don't see any drop in this category.


    Yes 25L is what matters. Paying that for what does not matter. Just it should be called 2BHK.

    It does not matter if that 2BHk is 800sq feet. It does not matter if there is no water. It does not matter if the location is pathetic. It does not matter what the construction quality is.

    what matters is 25L for 2BHK, and 10% discount from builder. LOL this is funny.

    I admire such buyers, if any.
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  • Originally Posted by Prasaddeshpande
    Hi friends,
    I was just going through various remarks. Few are predicting Diwali. Few are waiting for Diwali, few are mentioning that Picture to abhi baaki hai....
    I am also waiting for Diwali.
    I still feel the demand for budget homes (15 to 25 lakh) is going to increase.
    I really don't see any drop in this category.
    Kahi aisa na ho jaye ki hum Gabbar ki tarah sirf puchate rahenge" Kub hai Holi??" and miss the bus(as well as holi).
    Market is already on a upward trend.:)


    -US housing has more way down
    -US states have no money....
    Their spending will reduce.....
    “The states are facing a protracted budget crisis, like none seen in the last 30 years and perhaps not seen since the Great Depression… This raises the specter of a ‘lost decade’ for states.”
    http://www.nga.org/Files/pdf/1002STATEGOVTAFTERGREATRECESSION.PDF

    -UK Budget cuts ....Results will follow in few Quarters
    -US Bank Closure yet to Peak 83 so far...
    -Stimulus package not yet removed........ for India and for US .... things will twist after that...
    -China Market is low...
    -Euro slow growth is for granted if not Recession ......
    -Pune RE prices are competing with the Rest of World(at peak).

    Now what positive growth one can bank on ??? If its Gradual why Pune is behaving as if nothing happened.....

    Or in Few yrs Lost Decade concept can be applied on Pune too .....
    "Prices of 2002" in 2012 ?? Yet we are so restless that we have missed the bus .....
    Or has Intra Day trading has started in RE :bab (6):Buy 20 flats in the Morning and sell in the Evening :D:)
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  • Problem is here ; Altough we know that 25L-30L for 2BHK is not appropriate but I feel that no where in Pune at good locality one can get a 2BHK below 30-35L now a days. I have seen lots of people criticising and commenting on "not to buy". In 2004-05 , 1BHK of 600 sqft area was easily available in 10-12 lacs, and now it has gone up to 25-30Lacs... For me Area does matter. Everyone is here to sell and buy in RE, so you have to decide when to buy, not to buy keeping in the mind the theory of "Survival of the Fittest".. If you dont buy in the developed areas its may be your loss not others because there will always be some one who has money to purchase...Currently in Pimple Saudagr GK developer is quoting 3500 psft rate.. others following GK... but my take on this is that if you get 3000 psft rate , it would be decent one...seeing the current development of this Area and its proximty to Aundh would one day make it most desirable. I can bet on it.
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  • Originally Posted by sans_re
    In 2004-05 , 1BHK of 600 sqft area was easily available in 10-12 lacs, and now it has gone up to 25-30Lacs...


    Correction, 1BHK of 600Sq feet was available for 7-8L in 204/05. rate then was ~1000 -1400/sq feet and car park 25K.
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  • Originally Posted by frugality
    -US housing has more way down
    -US states have no money....
    Their spending will reduce.....
    “The states are facing a protracted budget crisis, like none seen in the last 30 years and perhaps not seen since the Great Depression… This raises the specter of a ‘lost decade’ for states.”
    http://www.nga.org/Files/pdf/1002STATEGOVTAFTERGREATRECESSION.PDF

    -UK Budget cuts ....Results will follow in few Quarters
    -US Bank Closure yet to Peak 83 so far...
    -Stimulus package not yet removed........ for India and for US .... things will twist after that...
    -China Market is low...
    -Euro slow growth is for granted if not Recession ......
    -Pune RE prices are competing with the Rest of World(at peak).

    Now what positive growth one can bank on ??? If its Gradual why Pune is behaving as if nothing happened.....

    Or in Few yrs Lost Decade concept can be applied on Pune too .....
    "Prices of 2002" in 2012 ?? Yet we are so restless that we have missed the bus .....
    Or has Intra Day trading has started in RE :bab (6):Buy 20 flats in the Morning and sell in the Evening :D:)

    HA HA HA!!!!!!
    That was a good one.:D
    If you keenly observe the happenings,market conditions, and roaring inflation, it is but obivious that one may get in a trap. One may get that confused state of mind. "Buying Home" is always a big decision. comparing this with the status of share market may not be the only analytical way to handle it.
    As far as US and china situations are concerned ; even world bank has admired the way India has handled the recession.
    galloping oil prices are going to create the impact.
    labour prices are not going to go down.
    In future rates may not gallop but will be in a certain range.
    Demand has already shown the upward trend. But at the same time enough inventory is also available.
    not much gap between demand supply ratio.
    If all of a sudden buyers stop buying(which happened during last Diwali) or a war like situation; then only one can expect a dip. Otherwise at least I don't see any dip in near future.

    As far as RE in intraday........mindblowing idea.:bab (6):
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  • Originally Posted by chinmay686
    Prasad : The wait dictum was for last Diwali and not this one...and the rates took the reverse gear (Upward!!) ..i hope this Diwali also doesn't fire some rocket in prices again
    Thanx Chinmay.:bab (6):
    I will also love to buy flat in baner / bavdhan 1500 to 1800 /sq. ft but this is not going to happen.
    So one has to take a logical decision. Here I can see few senior members have their say "do not buy at this price" may have their own calculations but no body is forcing to buyer. It is buyers wish. One should always decide;based on his own thought process.
    veterans may say "do not buy" few of junior members like me say "this may be a last call to get 2 bhk in 25 lakh segment Pune".
    Pl compare prices in the same area from 1995 to till date with a gap of every five years, you will get your answer. As simple as that......:o
    Thanx Chinmay.:bab (6):
    I will also love to buy flat in baner / bavdhan 1500 to 1800 /sq. ft but this is not going to happen.
    So one has to take a logical decision. Here I can see few senior members have their say "do not buy at this price" may have their own calculations but no body is forcing to buyer. It is buyers wish. One should always decide;based on his own thought process.
    veterans may say "do not buy" few of junior members like me say "this may be a last call to get 2 bhk in 25 lakh segment Pune".
    Pl compare prices in the same area from 1995 to till date with a gap of every five years, you will get your answer. As simple as that......:o
    Thanx Chinmay.:bab (6):
    I will also love to buy flat in baner / bavdhan 1500 to 1800 /sq. ft but this is not going to happen.
    So one has to take a logical decision. Here I can see few senior members have their say "do not buy at this price" may have their own calculations but no body is forcing to buyer. It is buyers wish. One should always decide;based on his own thought process.
    veterans may say "do not buy" few of junior members like me say "this may be a last call to get 2 bhk in 25 lakh segment Pune".
    Pl compare prices in the same area from 1995 to till date with a gap of every five years, you will get your answer. As simple as that......:o
    Thanx Chinmay.:bab (6):
    I will also love to buy flat in baner / bavdhan 1500 to 1800 /sq. ft but this is not going to happen.
    So one has to take a logical decision. Here I can see few senior members have their say "do not buy at this price" may have their own calculations but no body is forcing to buyer. It is buyers wish. One should always decide;based on his own thought process.
    veterans may say "do not buy" few of junior members like me say "this may be a last call to get 2 bhk in 25 lakh segment Pune".
    Pl compare prices in the same area from 1995 to till date with a gap of every five years, you will get your answer. As simple as that......:o
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  • Originally Posted by Prasaddeshpande
    Thanx Chinmay.:bab (6):
    I will also love to buy flat in baner / bavdhan 1500 to 1800 /sq. ft but this is not going to happen.
    So one has to take a logical decision. Here I can see few senior members have their say "do not buy at this price" may have their own calculations but no body is forcing to buyer. It is buyers wish. One should always decide;based on his own thought process.
    veterans may say "do not buy" few of junior members like me say "this may be a last call to get 2 bhk in 25 lakh segment Pune".
    Pl compare prices in the same area from 1995 to till date with a gap of every five years, you will get your answer. As simple as that......:o


    Prasad is not completely wrong here. RE rates in Pune did not see much increase from 1995-2004. The increase was marginal. So a correction was pending, becasue earnings level of Pune people has increased by that time. 10L for a 2BHK in little far areas and 15L for 2BHK in good areas was the scenario in 2004. If you take avg income of IT people in that time frame there were abundant capable buyers as compared to today. Hence schemes were getting sold like anything. Builders realized this buying power of people and strted increasing rates. This went on for 2 yrs till 2007 where it reached a saturation point and buying power of people had come down till that time & then what we observed is stabilization or a fall by 10-15% in 2009.

    So my point is a positive correction in Pune RE prices was due in 2004 and it happened. Only thing is builder over did in due to their greed. Now they are day dreaming of increasing the rates further in similar fashion, which is again very unlikely. So from current levelRE market in Pune can not go much higher it may stabilize or come down, but if it has to be come down definitely it will not be by 40-50% or to the levels of 2004-2005. It can be around 10-15 max 20% from current levels.
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  • rsatitkar, I agree with your view to some extent.
    But I dont think a mere fall of 10% will make people as comfortable as 2004 for buying. I believe the price will correct to the level (not suddenly, it will take an era of stagnation to do that) where people are comfortable to buy. This will be by either price correction or time correction or both. So we are now not in 2004-2007 era, but in 1996-2004 era. In this game, to me it seems those with Patience will win.

    Originally Posted by rsatitkar
    Prasad is not completely wrong here. RE rates in Pune did not see much increase from 1995-2004. The increase was marginal. So a correction was pending, becasue earnings level of Pune people has increased by that time. 10L for a 2BHK in little far areas and 15L for 2BHK in good areas was the scenario in 2004. If you take avg income of IT people in that time frame there were abundant capable buyers as compared to today. Hence schemes were getting sold like anything. Builders realized this buying power of people and strted increasing rates. This went on for 2 yrs till 2007 where it reached a saturation point and buying power of people had come down till that time & then what we observed is stabilization or a fall by 10-15% in 2009.

    So my point is a positive correction in Pune RE prices was due in 2004 and it happened. Only thing is builder over did in due to their greed. Now they are day dreaming of increasing the rates further in similar fashion, which is again very unlikely. So from current levelRE market in Pune can not go much higher it may stabilize or come down, but if it has to be come down definitely it will not be by 40-50% or to the levels of 2004-2005. It can be around 10-15 max 20% from current levels.
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  • Originally Posted by rsatitkar
    RE rates in Pune did not see much increase from 1995-2004. The increase was marginal. So a correction was pending, becasue earnings level of Pune people has increased by that time. 10L for a 2BHK in little far areas and 15L for 2BHK in good areas was the scenario in 2004. If you take avg income of IT people in that time frame there were abundant capable buyers as compared to today. Hence schemes were getting sold like anything. Builders realized this buying power of people and strted increasing rates. This went on for 2 yrs till 2007 where it reached a saturation point and buying power of people had come down till that time & then what we observed is stabilization or a fall by 10-15% in 2009.

    So my point is a positive correction in Pune RE prices was due in 2004 and it happened. Only thing is builder over did in due to their greed. Now they are day dreaming of increasing the rates further in similar fashion, which is again very unlikely. So from current levelRE market in Pune can not go much higher it may stabilize or come down, but if it has to be come down definitely it will not be by 40-50% or to the levels of 2004-2005. It can be around 10-15 max 20% from current levels.



    Very balanced views. I agree that positive correction was kind of due and also the buying power of people increased from during last few yrs. The problem is price rose very fast and passed the affordability level of people(even with increased buying power..) early 2007 itself.

    Investors(smart buyers) kept buying the whole of 2007 with objective of selling it when construction completes. It was the greed of these investors that created the problem. I would not completely blame builders here. Builders are to be blamed mid 2008 onwards, where they saw that buyers disappeared, and they use their political connections to get the loan re-structured and work in cartel to raise the prices periodically even when no buyers.

    Our Smart buyers in Pune fell to this trick, saw the prices rising again after the slump. So builders actually did some sales when they increased the prices and not when they decreased the prices.

    Point to note is that prices are still struggling to rise past the 2008 peaks. So that marks the upper limit of affordability to even the cash rich investors.

    Many of the investments of these smart buyers who bought end of 2007/early 2008 is already bad, if they do their math right. But such investors are overly optimistic people, so they will continue to hold, until one final day they realize that prices are no more rising and their investment is actually bad already.

    I agree that its wrong to expect prices going back to 2004-05 levels, because they need to appreciate at par with the inflation and also general affordability of people has increased.

    At the same time also note that, when market gets bearish(bound to happen, because of current bubble; when is a million dollar question!), demand supply equation changes drastically, and you can see prices illogically low than what you expect.
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  • Originally Posted by Prasaddeshpande

    Demand has already shown the upward trend. But at the same time enough inventory is also available.not much gap between demand supply ratio.


    Every one assumes demand vs supply gap, as per their convenience.
    Trends in rent indicates the demand vs supply gap.:D:D:D

    Every buyers should ask this question to themselves and find answer themselves.

    1) Why are rents stagnant from last 2+ yrs?
    2) Why is rent so cheap compared to cost of owning the same property?
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  • Thanks Aditi & RAJESHP for your comments. I agree with your views. Patience is the one big thing is what needed in current scenario.
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  • Originally Posted by Prasaddeshpande
    Pl compare prices in the same area from 1995 to till date with a gap of every five years, you will get your answer. As simple as that......:o

    But this situation was there across the country, Pune not an exception. In 2004, the price which one would have paid for South Mumbai, he is paying it for Bandra now. However, one needs to see that RE prices corrected in places like Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, & even Bangalore to the extent of 30-55%. This type of reduction was not seen in Pune, hence, the bubble is still holding on. You also need to understand the Pune RE was largely investor & IT driven, while Mumbai & Delhi is mostly end user driven.

    What differentiates Pune RE with others is the over-politicisation of RE sector. Now just earlier thread was discussing about Orange County, Padmavilas:- Both builders are directly involved with the Congress, all the townships except BR is of NCP......note the difference.

    Fact of the matter is why there aren't Godrej Properties, Shapoorji Pallonji, Hiranandani, Ajmera in Pune? If you find the answer to this, you will understand what we are trying to say:bab (34):.

    I agree with a fellow member that buy in other city & rent in Pune, it is much better proposition, now ofcourse this may not happen in reality but financially, this makes more sense.

    * PS:- I find no reason why one should pay aroud INR 3k/sq ft for junk & absolutely downmarket area called Ambegaon. Is it the next, Generic, upcoming Pali Hill:D. Btw, the plots here are available for even INR 400/sq ft.
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  • Dream Islands for sale ....

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/24/greece-islands-sale-save-economy

    See what is for Sale in Greece ....

    Islands for sale in Greece ...

    And Pune Builders are buying ... ;)

    1,235-acre Nafsika, in the Ionian sea, on sale for €15m.
    = 96 Crore
    (8 Lakh per Acre) lets make a group of 200 people and buy that ;)
    The sale of an island – or convincing a member of the international jet-set to take on a long-term lease – would help to boost its coffers.
    But others are on for less than €2m = 15 Crore – less than a townhouse in Mayfair or Chelsea. Some of the country's numerous islands are tiny which could barely fit a single sunbed.

    Thats what a poor Debt can bring .....

    Who knows ....Those who can wait ... maybe can buy 3 or 4 houses in 50 Lakh or maybe big Mall in 2012 - 2013 in 1 Crore in US ( Disclaimer: Imaginary )


    One of the Islands
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  • my analysis of price increase :

    Due to recesssion and poor response to bookings prices were reduced to the range of 2100- 2500.Psf

    After some time ppl started booking the flat at that rate as those were quite affordable. builder got bookings they thought to increase the rate and increased to range some to 3000 -3200

    few ppl booked at this rate and buildrs thought that ppl are ready to pay those rate.

    But if you see the bookings 90-95 of the flats were booked in the range kof 2100-2600 rate on 5 % of the booking might have been done for 3000-3200 range. and builders show us the same bookings

    pesonally visited one builder officeganga and told him the above logic he too ageed, but said since he is getting booking he will not reduce the rate.

    After few days i got a call sales person asked have i done booking in another project.. he might not have been able to sell the flat for increased rate.

    I suppose that builders are not geeting bookings at new rate as they got
    for 2100 - 2500 range.

    I suggest all those who visit the builder office to tell thm above logic.
    Even if you dont want to buy just visit and say it is too high 24-2500 (or what ever u want to say but say logical dont say 1100-or 1500 ) is right price , let the builder looby come to that above 2800 is a high rate and thy wont be able to sell

    once the demand reduces and this is goin to happen the same builder will call u ask u to buy for reduce rate

    just try above

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by Vspeak

    I suggest all those who visit the builder office to tell thm above logic.
    Even if you dont want to buy just visit and say it is too high 24-2500 (or what ever u want to say but say logical dont say 1100-or 1500 ) is right price , let the builder looby come to that above 2800 is a high rate and thy wont be able to sell


    Why is 400-600 below the builder quoted price a logical price? tomorrow if builder quotes 5000, then is 4500 logical price? I do not understand the logic behind this logical price:D

    Try and arrive at logical price, based on what people can afford in general(in other words, what salaries people draw in that area/region) and what rent the property fetches. Not based on what builder quotes.:bab (45):
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