I have got confirmed news from one of family friend who works with one of the reputed builders (from Pune), that property market in Pune is getting worse day by day. Many people who has signed but not made agreements are cancelling the deals (due to job conditions). Plenty of new projects are at High Risk. Many wise builders stopped the launch of new projects (including Paranjpe, DSK, Kumar).
People don't have money to pay EMI. Investors are not getting good rents. They want to sell off.
All in all, by Diwali rates will be down, if not the same.

You still can buy a flat if you have secured job and enough of money in hand. Those who want to take loan (more than 10L), please don't take risk.

Sansona
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  • Mannn !! this particular thread is not dying natural death at all ... its just continuing from one Diwali to another .... :bab (59):
    be assured ... in pune there is no dearth of optimistic people .. who are hopping that pune real estate market will go down to affordable levels for common middle class people like us ..:bab (3):

    just go and any try to enquire at any remote site ( like Rohan mandhuban in Bavdhan ) ... u will feel the richness in this city ... projects are getting sold like potatoes ( may be ..as few says ...gimmick by builders :bab (6):) .....

    Keep hope guys ... Afterall rates will come down by this Diwali in pune .... :bab (35):
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  • Originally Posted by amolk09
    Mannn !! this particular thread is not dying natural death at all


    hahaha, may be it has got some chinese medicine. This is one hell of a thread, while thread owner has done nothing to keep this thread alive.
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  • Rate will cum down after diwali but that diwali will cum after 100 diwali's
    Originally Posted by amolk09
    Mannn !! this particular thread is not dying natural death at all ... its just continuing from one Diwali to another .... :bab (59):
    be assured ... in pune there is no dearth of optimistic people .. who are hopping that pune real estate market will go down to affordable levels for common middle class people like us ..:bab (3):

    just go and any try to enquire at any remote site ( like Rohan mandhuban in Bavdhan ) ... u will feel the richness in this city ... projects are getting sold like potatoes ( may be ..as few says ...gimmick by builders :bab (6):) .....

    Keep hope guys ... Afterall rates will come down by this Diwali in pune .... :bab (35):
    CommentQuote
  • Folks, back again after 3 weeks ...

    Originally Posted by frugality
    I thought I am insulting him .....

    So either he is incorrect and he is fool according to the fool theory

    or we are incorrect and fools :)
    Time will tell

    By the way he is a regular Columnist on Indian Express NYT section

    http://www.indianexpress.com/news/towards-the-next-depression/639590/0



    Folks,

    Back in late 2008, it appeared that I was the only one talking of a "greater Depression" which would likely go through 2012. At that time the stuff I was talking about seemed so far out that people generally reacted in 2 ways ...

    1. You are completely off your rocker
    2. Angry personal reactions

    I do not think there were more than a handful (Alan, where are you!? :D), who thought I was making sense and generally they were in the Financial/Banking sector mostly abroad.

    Today, I do not see any reason to post anymore since there are many people saying the exact same thing (Depression, 50% price declines etc), so no point repeating the same things ...

    This is all I have to say that most people today still want to hide from ....

    The world is on the verge of entering a Great Depression which could actually be more severe than the 1930s one (no one has any personal experience and therefore its hard to say what that means).

    The downward phase could go as far as 2016 and the recovery back to where we were in early 2008 could take as long as 2022!!!

    Please do not take the impact of this thing lightly simply because India seems to have weathered the so-called Great Recession well. Please remember that the so-called Great Recession which was reversed by insane amounts of bailouts ("Quantitative Easing") was only the trailer and the actual Depression is still to come. Please note that I have been at pains to constantly remind people here that the worst is definitely not over and it is still to come and is likely to be much worse than we think! I continue to hold this point of view, especially seeing how most of the world is about to go to hell rather rapidly in the near future!!!

    This whole "recovery" was nothing but digging a deeper pit to bury ourselves in with a stimulus. And the greatest problem it has created is put foolish bravado into the minds of youngsters who think nothing of taking HUGE loans on rather shaky and abnormally high incomes and thinking that home prices will forever rise and their salaries will also forever rise.

    As I have said before, when the Job recession comes to India - especially in the IT sector - you will see a rush for the exit by builders as well as many thousands of suddenly-jobless people who cannot afford another EMI and who wish to sell before the market caves in.

    If Paul Krugman has come over to the side of Depression so categorically, you can be sure that we are very close (1-2months) to the inevitable crash in stocks first and then onto the Real Global Economy. Even as highly regarded a person as Richard Russell of the "Dow Theory Letters" is extremely bearish right now. He is so bearish that Bob Prechter's ultimate worst-case target of DOW 400, which Russell thought was very unlikely, he seems to start believing it may well happen!!!

    Please note from the Charts that EVERY major stock index globally is significantly below the 200 DMA (which divides the Bull and Bear markets). Especially the Shanghai Composite Index is extremely weak and going downwards rather sharply. So are the DAX, CAC, FTSE, DOW, S&P, Nasdaq. Weaker markets like Spain and Greece have already crossed even lower than the MArch 2009 lows.

    I'm quite amazed by the Indian markets still remaining up. But soon enough the local punters will see reality - aided by massive withdrawal of FII funds - and we will see the next wave down.

    In conclusion, we are entering probably the most dangerous part of the multi-year Depression. If you go ahead and wildly take on debt under the assumption that prices and salaries and jobs will only go up ... wish you all the best.

    Enjoy the ride.

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Wiseman,

    Since you are back, please comment on Q1/Q2 portion, since we are done with Q2.

    Post #2

    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/6737-happy-new-year-and-predictions-for-2010?t=8859
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by RAJESHP
    Wiseman,

    Since you are back, please comment on Q1/Q2 portion, since we are done with Q2.

    Post #2

    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/pune-real-estate/6737-happy-new-year-and-predictions-for-2010?t=8859


    Nice one Rajesh :) Someone need to keep tab on doomers if they forget about their old predictions with no intention to explain failure of those and start posting new gloomy future predictions :D (trying to keep tab on Diwali threads in the meantime ).
    wiseman !! Would you mind posting updated chart you posted on 3-Jan (same thread).
    CommentQuote
  • Let me ask a rhetorical question here

    If prices of deccan/camp/koregaon park drop to Rs 3500 per sq/ft will you jump at the opportunity or will you buy in Baner at 1800 per sq ft ?


    My gut says that people who discuss the fall will jump at the opportunity to buy in the developed areas at 3500. If this is the case then it means that affordability is not an issue. It is the value for money argument which is keeping buyers away.

    If people resist buying 'developed' areas at 3500, it means that the buyers sentiment is very weak and therefore baner prices at 1800 or below can easily be possible.

    I'm one of the people who will sell my Baner apt at 1800 if I can get Deccan/Camp for 3500
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Folks,

    Back in late 2008, it appeared that I was the only one talking of a "greater Depression" which would likely go through 2012. At that time the stuff I was talking about seemed so far out that people generally reacted in 2 ways ...

    1. You are completely off your rocker
    2. Angry personal reactions

    I do not think there were more than a handful (Alan, where are you!? :D), who thought I was making sense and generally they were in the Financial/Banking sector mostly abroad.

    Today, I do not see any reason to post anymore since there are many people saying the exact same thing (Depression, 50% price declines etc), so no point repeating the same things ...

    This is all I have to say that most people today still want to hide from ....

    The world is on the verge of entering a Great Depression which could actually be more severe than the 1930s one (no one has any personal experience and therefore its hard to say what that means).

    The downward phase could go as far as 2016 and the recovery back to where we were in early 2008 could take as long as 2022!!!

    Please do not take the impact of this thing lightly simply because India seems to have weathered the so-called Great Recession well. Please remember that the so-called Great Recession which was reversed by insane amounts of bailouts ("Quantitative Easing") was only the trailer and the actual Depression is still to come. Please note that I have been at pains to constantly remind people here that the worst is definitely not over and it is still to come and is likely to be much worse than we think! I continue to hold this point of view, especially seeing how most of the world is about to go to hell rather rapidly in the near future!!!

    This whole "recovery" was nothing but digging a deeper pit to bury ourselves in with a stimulus. And the greatest problem it has created is put foolish bravado into the minds of youngsters who think nothing of taking HUGE loans on rather shaky and abnormally high incomes and thinking that home prices will forever rise and their salaries will also forever rise.

    As I have said before, when the Job recession comes to India - especially in the IT sector - you will see a rush for the exit by builders as well as many thousands of suddenly-jobless people who cannot afford another EMI and who wish to sell before the market caves in.

    If Paul Krugman has come over to the side of Depression so categorically, you can be sure that we are very close (1-2months) to the inevitable crash in stocks first and then onto the Real Global Economy. Even as highly regarded a person as Richard Russell of the "Dow Theory Letters" is extremely bearish right now. He is so bearish that Bob Prechter's ultimate worst-case target of DOW 400, which Russell thought was very unlikely, he seems to start believing it may well happen!!!

    Please note from the Charts that EVERY major stock index globally is significantly below the 200 DMA (which divides the Bull and Bear markets). Especially the Shanghai Composite Index is extremely weak and going downwards rather sharply. So are the DAX, CAC, FTSE, DOW, S&P, Nasdaq. Weaker markets like Spain and Greece have already crossed even lower than the MArch 2009 lows.

    I'm quite amazed by the Indian markets still remaining up. But soon enough the local punters will see reality - aided by massive withdrawal of FII funds - and we will see the next wave down.

    In conclusion, we are entering probably the most dangerous part of the multi-year Depression. If you go ahead and wildly take on debt under the assumption that prices and salaries and jobs will only go up ... wish you all the best.

    Enjoy the ride.

    cheers



    The world is going to end so lets all just jump into the sea and commit suicide. Whats the point of living anyway!!

    Stop this crap!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by frugality
    -US housing has more way down
    -US states have no money....
    Their spending will reduce.....
    “The states are facing a protracted budget crisis, like none seen in the last 30 years and perhaps not seen since the Great Depression… This raises the specter of a ‘lost decade’ for states.”
    http://www.nga.org/Files/pdf/1002STATEGOVTAFTERGREATRECESSION.PDF

    -UK Budget cuts ....Results will follow in few Quarters
    -US Bank Closure yet to Peak 83 so far...
    -Stimulus package not yet removed........ for India and for US .... things will twist after that...
    -China Market is low...
    -Euro slow growth is for granted if not Recession ......
    -Pune RE prices are competing with the Rest of World(at peak).

    Now what positive growth one can bank on ??? If its Gradual why Pune is behaving as if nothing happened.....

    Or in Few yrs Lost Decade concept can be applied on Pune too .....
    "Prices of 2002" in 2012 ?? Yet we are so restless that we have missed the bus .....
    Or has Intra Day trading has started in RE :bab (6):Buy 20 flats in the Morning and sell in the Evening :D:)


    Things have started happening
    -US states have no money....
    Illinois
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/03/business/economy/03illinois.html?_r=4&pagewanted=1&ei=5065&partner=MYWAY
    California
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Calif-state-workers-brace-for-apf-1034411212.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=


    -US Bank Closure yet to Peak 83 so far...(Two week back 5 more banks)
    Ideal Federal Savings Bank fails, 88th of 2010 ... its July 10th still

    Expect lots of government layoffs at state, local level ... actual current unemployment is dreaded at 19 % this is likely to increase in 2011
    http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2010-07-06-jobs06_ST_N.htm?csp=hf



    California is tightening faster than Greece. State workers have seen a 14pc fall in earnings this year due to forced furloughs. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is cutting pay for 200,000 state workers to the minimum wage of $7.25 an hour to cover his $19bn (£15bn) deficit.
    Can Illinois be far behind? The state has a deficit of $12bn and is $5bn in arrears to schools, nursing homes, child care centres, and prisons. "It is getting worse every single day," said state comptroller Daniel Hynes. "We are not paying bills for absolutely essential services. That is obscene."
    Roughly a million Americans have dropped out of the jobs market altogether over the past two months. That is the only reason why the headline unemployment rate is not exploding to a post-war high.
    Let us be honest. The US is still trapped in depression a full 18 months into zero interest rates, quantitative easing (QE), and fiscal stimulus that has pushed the budget deficit above 10pc of GDP.
    The share of the US working-age population with jobs in June actually fell from 58.7pc to 58.5pc. This is the real stress indicator. The ratio was 63pc three years ago. Eight million jobs have been lost.
    The average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks. Nothing like this has been seen before in the post-war era. Jeff Weniger, of Harris Private Bank, said this compares with a peak of 21.2 weeks in the Volcker recession of the early 1980s.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7871421/With-the-US-trapped-in-depression-this-really-is-starting-to-feel-like-1932.html

    So now we have three Stars contestants for Slowdown. US , EURO and China..... and braving them is India ;)
    CommentQuote
  • Revisiting this message as results for this quarter are out.
    Not 30K but now Infosys has increased target to hire 36K this year.
    For first quarter, net hiring was ~8.8K againts 7K of target.

    Now see the facts:
    ~7.8K left in first quarter.
    Net hiring for this quarter is 1.2K.

    Now calculate for whole year. 36K freshers will be hired this year, and 30-35K experienced (and costly) employees will quit or get fired (or soft fired)


    Originally Posted by realbee
    Infosys to hire 30k. Economy getting better. No chance of RE going down. Yes and as someone mentioned this post was for previous Diwali, from previous Diwali rates high. See comments from some of our senior memeber who backed the claim of price drop.
    Prices going southward. See trends in Noida etc wher price going up Rs100 every month in some projects
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  • What we all said last year ...
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    What we all said last year ...


    Venkytalks, hope you will enjoy venky's chicken this festival season and watch property prices doubling at least... :)
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by monds
    Venkytalks, hope you will enjoy venky's chicken this festival season and watch property prices doubling at least... :)

    :D:D Venky's Chicken will also double in cost it looks like

    Lets wait for our "dream's Diwali" when property rates will come down:bab (45):
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  • Property rates have never come down during Diwali time, they rise infact in festival season.

    As I had said earlier, Jun-Aug is the best season to buy property.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by puser
    :D:D Venky's Chicken will also double in cost it looks like

    Lets wait for our "dream's Diwali" when property rates will come down:bab (45):

    mera dream diwali kab aayega !!!!!!!!!
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