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Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

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Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

Last updated: September 23 2016
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  • Re : Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

    Originally posted by aditi sharma View Post
    This is what Ajit Dayal says about property market in mumbai and pune.

    India isn't another Dubai, and thus our property market will escape the kind of collapse that has impacted the Gulf nation. This is what Mr. Keki Mistry believes. Coming straight from the chief of HDFC, India's largest housing finance company, these words carry a lot of weight.

    As Mr. Mistry says, "Dubai was very different from India. In India, the property market is largely end-user based; in Dubai, the property market is largely investor based." While we are in agreement with Mr. Mistry about his views on the nature of the Indian realty market, we believe certain pockets in the country like Mumbai and Pune do give a sense of a building bubble. And they seem like strong contenders for being the 'next Dubai'!

    Link to the article
    ]http://www.equitymaster.com/5minwrapup/detail.asp?date=12%2F18%2F2009&story=2[/URL]
    Good link, thanks for this.

    Comment


    • Re : Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

      Originally posted by wiseman View Post
      Compuwalah, Nemo, etc

      You might think I was born with a frown on my face!

      But most of my money was made as a bull. The reason I'm so gloomy about the world today is this ...

      Almost all rules of safety and transparency have been set aside by the biggest risk takers of the world today. The total amount of debt-based derivatives in the world is expected to have crossed a thousand trillion sometime in the recent past. And all of this is being hidden from the world by the deliberate secrercy of the FED. This means that, when "profits" happen (nothing but risks which will turn into a loss in the future), the bankers loot this to the tune of 60% and leave the losses from the risks taken to be borne by you and me!!!!

      The euphoria you see around is because most of the aam janta do not know the intricacies of what happening behind the scenes. The belief is that bankers are trying to loot one lasttime as much as possible before the sh** hits the fan.

      At no time in the history of the world has similar situations unwound in a nice way. Most times, empires have collapsed and died out (Roman Empire, Tughlaq dynasty, Dutch, French and British Empires (much of the reason why the British left most of their colonies in the first half of the 20th Century was that they were unable to sustain debt levels during that period).

      The US and other developed nations hae built up a debt monster which is far, far higher than any built in the history of the world!!! This too will unwind in a drastic and chaotic manner. This is almost a certainity and likely in the next few years.

      You can either remain ignorant about it or ignore it, but the train is headed your way and you are on the tracks. Its just a matter of time.

      Finally, you were talking about the IT sector. Let me tell you. One of the CEOs of a top-5 IT company is a classmate of mine! Back in 2008, I was very bearish and predicted his stock price to fall below 100 from above 300 levels. He laughed since he was very bullish about IT sector then. When it reached below 80, he stopped laughing and I turned bullish and bought. It went back to above 300. But the strangest thing happened. While I turned bullish, he has now turned worried and is expecting some very challenging times for IT in India. He specifically stated recently that, while Indian IT companies are twiddling about oursourcing efficiencies and suchlike marginal impact things, what they do not seem to be seeing is that there is a giant change in the very global IT model which will make all these twiddling around insignificant and of no consequence. Indian IT is in a state of hubris and may not be able to adapt to the dramatic shifts in IT model coming up. From his vantage point in making many multi-million $$$ deals in the recent past, he must be seeing something we are unable to!

      Please remember that, when you are talking multi-billion $ companies, a pipeline of many 100s of millions is not enough. It barely covers 1-2 years future sales. And with the coming tightening and slowdown in general and a greater competition globally in IT, these high valuations will be under great stress in the future.

      While we will definitely do better than most others, there is going to be a prolonged and significant pain in the coming decade until all of this hidden financial hydrogen bombs are defused through transparency and bankruptcies; NOT bailouts and secrecy!!!

      Somehow, the world's greatest financial risk-taking adventure which took 27 years to buildup is not likely to dissipate in a couple of years without much pain to this world?! This is not only my belief, but the belief of people much bigger than me!

      Till the clouds dissipate on a sustainable basis, it is safer to be wary and pessimistic. You can actually make more money that way than being a hyper bull in these conditions.

      cheers
      I think you are talking abt Cloud Computing, right. You know Jugaad(with reference to IT companies) has been made official word, part of some business slang/dictionary.

      I am not sure, hom much the impact will be or how soon this technology will be used heavily, but i think indian IT companies shud be bale to manage that. If a CEO is sayin that(Mr VN i think), that means companies radars are ok and they are working on it. 2 cents

      Comment


      • Re : Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

        I think you(Mr wise) are talking abt Cloud Computing, right. You know Jugaad(with reference to IT companies) has been made official word, part of some business slang/dictionary.

        I am not sure, hom much the impact will be or how soon this technology will be used heavily, but i think indian IT companies shud be bale to manage that. If a CEO is sayin that(Mr VN i think), that means companies radars are ok and they are working on it. 2 cents

        Comment


        • Re : Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

          You are correct!

          Originally posted by findingnemo View Post
          I think you(Mr wise) are talking abt Cloud Computing, right. You know Jugaad(with reference to IT companies) has been made official word, part of some business slang/dictionary.

          I am not sure, hom much the impact will be or how soon this technology will be used heavily, but i think indian IT companies shud be bale to manage that. If a CEO is sayin that(Mr VN i think), that means companies radars are ok and they are working on it. 2 cents

          Yes, Nemo. You are correct.

          In fact I have already been working on taking my application (a small group of us run a 10-year old company which makes Energy Management Systems and Applications; both the hardware, data concentrator as well as data acquisition, monitoring and Web-based Anaytical Apps) to the cloud and we are seeing good traction here. Strange as it may sound, back in 2007 the product was in an early stage and most customers were rather indifferent. Today, since we also price it very competitively despite its sophistication, it is simply flying off the shelf. Mainly because, today even a few thousand Rs savings (especially if you use the fancy "Energy" term) brings it to the MDs notice instantly! This shows that Indian IT companies who combine hardware, firmware & as well as (our entire stack is FOSS-based), have a strong IP (understanding of the underlying subject - electricity), make the product world-class in functionality and look-n-feel and make it cheap enough to make the sale a no-brainer (our pitch to even sophisticated customers is, "When you have invested so much in a world-class facility, we cannot imagine how you could be running this factory without our system!" Always forms the clinching selling point!), these companies have the basic ingredients to become world-class players. And we have many, many companies like this emerging in India now. This is probably the way Indian IT will evolve and these small companies can partner with the biggies to take them to large markets quickly and form a symbiotic partnership (well, we all live on hopes, don't we?)

          Most importantly, there is nothing new about the cloud. Sun tried it around the DotCom time with their version of virtualisation (which failed as it was too early for it to succeed) and today you have hosts like Slicehost, etc which are being used widely by some innovative companies like Greytip of Bangalore to provide the backend for HR and Accounting BPO to even international clients. And companies like IBM did it much, much earlier! Just old wine in attractive new bottle in different pack size and available easily through nearest outlet and so on (its the support infrastructure and other environmental factors which is making it successful in its latest avatar!)

          Cloud computing is following the typical hype cycle (remember Web Services?) and will have the same issues, security, standardisation, simplification (REST rather than WSDL) and so on till it matures and stabilises. In my opinion will take a full decade before becoming mainstream like the others.

          You are right about VN (classmates in B-School and we will be doing the 25th year back-to-school in 2010!). And yes. Indian IT will continue to do well. But the days of 25% - 40% Net Margin and 100% growth (like in the 90s) are over. Today, its more like 10-15% margin (that too because of zero tax regime) and maybe 15% - 20% growth. Besides most of these companies will consolidate in the coming years leaving a few large and profitable companies.

          So, giving these companies 40 time P/E will give investors a lot of pain tomorrow!!!

          Apologies to all who may think, what has all of this to do with RE?

          cheers
          Last edited by wiseman; December 18 2009, 10:50 PM.

          Comment


          • Re : Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

            Originally posted by wiseman View Post

            At no time in the history of the world has similar situations unwound in a nice way. Most times, empires have collapsed and died out (Roman Empire, Tughlaq dynasty, Dutch, French and British Empires (much of the reason why the British left most of their colonies in the first half of the 20th Century was that they were unable to sustain debt levels during that period).

            cheers
            You mean to say India got its Independence due to high levels of Debt on british empire...And I was always thinking & taught that " A man with stick in his hand" earn us independence from britishers...How Stupid I am

            On serious note,I dont know what Mr wise see here (I mean all debt calculation on entire world etc) which can not be seen by big finance ppls & correct the same...I would suggest Mr wise should be given a permanent post in WB to manage world's finances....

            I am still following one of his post where he said the DOW will go down to 1000 level I am not seeing any sign of that happening now & not in near future...I dont know whether I can see those level in my lifetime (Bythway I just become wise (I mean 30 a couple of months back)...I am waiting with TRUCK LOAD of money to put in stock mkt at those levels
            Last edited by ash7979; December 19 2009, 12:14 AM.
            Cheers,
            -Ashish

            Comment


            • Re : Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

              I see Mr Wise has lots of knowledge, really appreciate that. But i know mostly geeks are not that great finance side. . I am part of that.

              But yes then there is your intuition, timing, luck, knowledge, risk taking ability which will differentiates you.

              I think sometimes, if you knowtoo much about something (i really dont understand contractions n alll ), you become too wary/scared of making decisions (more on the finance side i believe). Sometimes gut feeling buoyed by market analysis, future prospects, timing and litbit of luck can make things work for you.

              I still believe things will turn out on the positive side for India in the long term and right now we are in a consolidating stage. We got to become like America, or may be better that. Maybe i am too optimistic.

              Comment


              • Re : Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

                To put some apprehensions at rest!

                This is specific to the posts of Ash and Nemo,

                Ash. Technically, the DOW can go all the way to 1000 based on certain methods of calculation. And if this happens, it will surely happen within your lifetime, within the next decade. Also, your truckload of currency may become fairly worthless at that time, so don't count on buying too much with currency at such a time; though buying at those levels will see you become very rich very soon.

                Btw, the only reason a WB job would be worthwhile is that its salary comes tax free, I believe. Otherwise, my current job is more than interesting! And does not have all the stress that goes with a WB job.

                Btw, while Gandhi was no doubt a once in a century (or centuries) kind of man, it was also lucky coincidence that Britain found itself unable to manage the Empire with the kind of debt they had. That also played a major role in our Independence. If it were only Gandhi, then only India would have got Independence. Strangely, they vacated almost all their territories in a span of 20-30 years. Obviously, there were reasons other than Gandhi and other freedom fighters for Britain to vacate other countries, right?

                Nemo: I understand you are talking about something called "Analysis-Paralysis", a state where people get so deep into endless analysis that they fail to take timely action. Like everyone else, I have had my share of doing this. But to come back to your fears, nope, as far as the markets are concerned, here are my qualifications as well as experience:

                - PGDBM in Marketing, Finance and Systems from a top-5 B-School.
                - Primarily a s/w industry guy (I still design, code and implement after all these years and have great enjoyment in doing so)
                - Been in stocks mainly as a serious hobby and partly as a professional (for nearly 8 years in the 90s) and managed a fairly big (for those times) portfolio for that period, mainly invested into companies - example BFL around Rs.8 to 14 and sold in the Rs.1400 upward range, Infosys during IPO at Rs.120 in large quantities, Satyam at Rs.6 unbelievable, but true) and so on). Turned a 6500% return in a 7 year period on that portfolio! Sold everything in 1999 when, in a chance meeting with a Ketan Parekh's blue-eyed boy, he told me that Satyam at Rs.7000 was a best buy since they were in talks with management often and they knew best. And I took a bet with him that, having bought it at Rs.6 I thought it was a best sell and we should compare notes after an year. After one year, he was nice enough to send me a mail conceding defeat and by then Ketan was in jail!.

                Recently, in Dec 2007, sold everything and got out. Went short trading Options and made a pile in the fall. Covered all shorts in Feb and went long in March. Sold out much of the holdings at over 200% in Nov.

                As you can see, I certainly do not suffer much from too much analysis as I have learnt to analyse as well as commit money into the market in parallel and cut my losses and book profits regularly based on the analysis and certain rules one learns if one wants to survive.

                To all others:

                First of all, this post should have gone as a private mail to Nemo and Ash. Apologies for posting it here. But I had some reasons ...

                - That one can make many mistakes in life and still come out winner if only the key decisions in life are taken well!
                - That as Nemo suggests, demographics and historical reasons indicate that India will do very well in the future, and I'm lucky to be born in this country (in fact a major reason I didn't migrate to the US in the 80s was I felt that, being such a low-cost and high-knowledge center, India would eventually win the game and grreat opportunity will come to India - this happened, but a decade after I thought it would! - no regrets)
                - That, many youngsters in this forum can learn from the mistakes guys like us have made, so that they do not suffer the pain that we have - I also believe that humans are cursed with the trait that they never learn from others' mistakes and must repeat it themselves to learn!

                These are the reasons I posted this fairly personal stuff here. Sorry in case it irritated anyone ...

                cheers

                Comment


                • Re : Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

                  Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                  This is specific to the posts of Ash and Nemo,

                  Ash. Technically, the DOW can go all the way to 1000 based on certain methods of calculation. And if this happens, it will surely happen within your lifetime, within the next decade. Also, your truckload of currency may become fairly worthless at that time, so don't count on buying too much with currency at such a time; though buying at those levels will see you become very rich very soon.
                  I salute you for your prolific achievements and success. And wish you more in the future. The work you do, and the posts you make are full of knowledge, humour, and a genuine desire to share information.

                  However, I must add that "technically" anything's possible. And if viewed in the ambiguous and dithered context ("surely happen within your lifetime, and within the next decade"), then your statement sounds like "In the long-term we are all dead".

                  I'm sorry wiseman, but that's being disingenuous.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

                    I don't share your view

                    Originally posted by razer View Post
                    I salute you for your prolific achievements and success. And wish you more in the future. The work you do, and the posts you make are full of knowledge, humour, and a genuine desire to share information.

                    However, I must add that "technically" anything's possible. And if viewed in the ambiguous and dithered context ("surely happen within your lifetime, and within the next decade"), then your statement sounds like "In the long-term we are all dead".

                    I'm sorry wiseman, but that's being disingenuous.

                    Razer,

                    You misuse the word "Prolific"! I know many people who God has given much less luck (I was lucky in all those things I did!) and who used it much more effectively and achieved far more than me!!! Personally, I don't think there was any great achievement. But I did have a lot of fun doing all those thing, thats for sure!

                    The practice of prediction puts us in a difficult situation - its all about probabilities and different outcomes based on different events happening over time. Therefore, no one can say definitely regarding the future and still be truthful.

                    Therefore, if its a toss-up between being truthful and being disingenuous, i'd prefer to be truthful, though it might result in some thinking its disingenuous.

                    Besides, disingenuous is only if I said ...
                    - Dow 1000 will definitely happen on 21 Dec 2012 at 9pm IST

                    and then in another post, said
                    - Dow 1000 may happen sometime in the next decade ... or maybe next millenia.

                    I have always stated that going by classical Elliott theory, the end of this Grand Supercycle decline should see the DOW around 1000 and technically as low as 400!

                    What I mean is, I strongly believe markets have a long way to go down over a longish period of time (years). When this happens, I will be making money going short; and sometimes going long when too much shorting has happened.

                    Whatever the bottom (1000, 3000, 6000) I will use this to make money from the markets. And if the Dow hits 1000, I will not be too surprised but will also use that opportunity to boldly wade in and buy whatever blue-chips I can, confident that I will be making a killing then.

                    This is the secret everyone wants to find out in advance, whether it be stocks, RE or whatever. If I buy now am I going to see a rise from now on (so I'm safe) OR will it take me to the cleaners. And that is the question one tries to answer as accurately as possible!

                    cheers
                    Last edited by wiseman; December 19 2009, 04:23 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Pune Property Rates Will be Down by Diwali

                      Originally posted by ash7979 View Post
                      And I was always thinking & taught that " A man with stick in his hand" earn us independence from britishers...How Stupid I am
                      Bang this stickman, he did more loss to the country than anyone else. In the absence of this stickman, we would have got independence way back & would have had Sardar Patel as PM rather than womaniser Nehru whose DNA is unknown. If you want to thank, thank Hitler coz he kicked British hard which resulted in fall of British Empire. Read the real history not written in the text book approved by the Congress.

                      Wiseman, what you say is right but I am of the firm opinion that economic scenario & stocks don't go really hand in hand. Stocks are more of speculation + sentiments rather than pure economic outlook. Hence, stock market can't show the real picture of the economy as the money in stocks necessarily need not be domestic. At 17k last time economy was better, today despite BSE being near 17k, economy is bad.
                      If you are happy, you are successful.

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