I have got confirmed news from one of family friend who works with one of the reputed builders (from Pune), that property market in Pune is getting worse day by day. Many people who has signed but not made agreements are cancelling the deals (due to job conditions). Plenty of new projects are at High Risk. Many wise builders stopped the launch of new projects (including Paranjpe, DSK, Kumar).
People don't have money to pay EMI. Investors are not getting good rents. They want to sell off.
All in all, by Diwali rates will be down, if not the same.

You still can buy a flat if you have secured job and enough of money in hand. Those who want to take loan (more than 10L), please don't take risk.

Sansona
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  • Originally Posted by kk83710
    Diwali's are coming n going making the builders prosperous. Buyers who bought or looking for are loosing prosperity. a diwali prosperous for everybody is simply hypothetical which can only be dreamt.

    Go to bed guys for such a prosperous diwali.


    I really feel good when RE bulls become over-active ! If one reads between the lines, one can understand what does this indicate .

    And kk83710, it seems you are completely ignorant about the health of builders. Suggest you look outside advertisements of the builders !! ;)
    DLF few days back has been kicked out of senseks while several builders including those in Pune have restarted ADF & FD schemes. If financial health of builders is so good, why these schemes, not to forget free taxes, gold introduced now. And why RE exhibis one after another ? Recently, Maharahstra times too had an RE exhibi, showcasing same projects.

    Good thing is atleast we can enjoy not becoming slaves to the builders & banks.

    Puser,

    Why get frustrated ? From your several posts you sometimes act as if you are jobless. Relax man, there is lot more to do in life than wasting precious yrs for no reason. Keep searching for better options, you will surely find one.
    And yes, be as less dependent on bank as possible for payment.
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  • Originally Posted by realacres
    I really feel good when RE bulls become over-active ! If one reads between the lines, one can understand what does this indicate .

    And kk83710, it seems you are completely ignorant about the health of builders. Suggest you look outside advertisements of the builders !! ;)
    DLF few days back has been kicked out of senseks while several builders including those in Pune have restarted ADF & FD schemes. If financial health of builders is so good, why these schemes, not to forget free taxes, gold introduced now. And why RE exhibis one after another ? Recently, Maharahstra times too had an RE exhibi, showcasing same projects.

    Good thing is atleast we can enjoy not becoming slaves to the builders & banks.

    Puser,

    Why get frustrated ? From your several posts you sometimes act as if you are jobless. Relax man, there is lot more to do in life than wasting precious yrs for no reason. Keep searching for better options, you will surely find one.
    And yes, be as less dependent on bank as possible for payment.


    Looks like there are no more good days for builder as well. :) but IMHO, in any scenario buyers are the one who are exposed to more loss/risks than the builders.

    BTW I am not all aware of Builders ADF and FD schemes. Are they any good from investment perspective?
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  • Can we expect title of thread to come true this Diwali.
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  • Hello ,

    I am planning to bug a home in Pune, but now Pune properties are under NRIs radar, can we really this to happen. I found similar news at this place http://punepropertiesforum.com/index.php/topic,24.0.html

    Could you please share your expert suggestion,

    Thanks in advance..
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  • another diwali to come within next 2 3 months .. It was only in 2008 recession that prices were in a straight line for a timeframe ... but they didnt drop.
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  • Originally Posted by Nitin_P
    Can we expect title of thread to come true this Diwali.


    if not, then this thread should be closed.
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  • Originally Posted by pradeep1981
    Hello ,

    I am planning to bug a home in Pune, but now Pune properties are under NRIs radar, can we really this to happen. I fThanks in advance..


    LOL :D ppl have been begging for a home in Pune . you are trying a diff route :)
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  • Why... there is going to be Diwali next year as well :)
    If people have waited for 4 year.. then why not wait for 6 (or may be 7,8...) years.;)
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  • Originally Posted by akssenti
    Just to point out to another article that says real estate is going to boom soon.
    ]http://business.rediff.com/report/2009/may/25/bcrisis-realty-read-to-roar-again.htm

    I say this article is crap. But as are most articles that real estate will crash. Lets not live by articles coz most of them are written with a bias either way.

    This is also a business standard article. The same magazine which was quoting real estate crunch and recession till diwali.

    Decide based on your best judgement rather than any newspaper articles.

    From this post of May 2009 more than 3 Diwalis back ;) , good to check the logic behind the link. The comment against the rediff (just at the bottom) looks like another IREF in action. ;)

    If we believe its written with bias , then maybe bias works in current times.

    On top logic says that there are more articles which say RE will crash and only few articles that say it will rise.

    This is similar to number ratio between bear and bull on this forum.



    Originally Posted by tsongt
    how long can they hold out?, they have started feeling the cash crunch, and they cannot wait for a long time. I have seen real data that a booking in PS area was done for 2400 psf in April, the same flat was cancelled in June. It has been resold in July for 3000 psf.

    Now what does this 25% increase in RE mean?

    This data is not indicating any recovery from recession, or any RE boom. This indicates the stupidity of the buyers who have fallen into a trap. As someone else said earlier in another thread, the investors who missed out in 2004/05 are thinking they will miss out another opportunity if they do not buy at current levels. Thats just pure panic, nothing else. Who in this world today especially in the IT industry is expecting salary raises in the next 2 years? which sector is generating jobs for the millions who have come out of college this year?


    Again this post from 2009 Q3.
    Think they can hang on for quiet some time or rather doing better now.

    Maybe you are a RE pundit but buyers who struck this window are now role models for many.

    Again this post from 2009 Q3.
    Think they can hang on for quiet some time or rather doing better now.

    Maybe you are a RE pundit but buyers who struck this window are now role models for many.

    Again this post from 2009 Q3.
    Think they can hang on for quiet some time or rather doing better now.

    Maybe you are a RE pundit but buyers who struck this window are now role models for many.

    Again this post from 2009 Q3.
    Think they can hang on for quiet some time or rather doing better now.

    Maybe you are a RE pundit but buyers who struck this window are now role models for many.
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    The float in the banks is estimated to be around 650,000 Crores. Givt borrowings this year alone is estimated to be around 450,000 Crores. And remember, this is planned borrowings! Almost every year of its existence, Govt has significant unplanned borrowings.

    This huge sucking sound you will be hearing shortly is that of money being sucked out of the system at an alarming rate - mainly by the Govt which will muscle out every other entity trying to get their hands on credit. This will certainly send rates climbing and make money scarce for the weaker borrowers - example RE!

    The Private Sector is going to be crowded for raising money this year (and maybe the next few years). Whats so special with 9% growth? The Govt is simply making the same mistake that corporates and the rest of the country did with growth in the last 5-6 years. Borrowing to make it happen!

    When the next down leg hits in the West (and it will surely happen because they are trying to blow the next bubble to take care of the problems created by the previous bubble - remember, the RE bubble in the US was blown to reverse the iff-effects of the Dot Com bubble), the cummulative effects of declining exports and domestic demand coupled with much higher borrowings will see the same pressures (as last year) coming back to hit us next year - further weakening demand and lower growth rates followed by more job losses and so on.

    Just be careful about not getting carried away by all this talk of boom times are here again! The politicians and bereaucrats who are making these tall claims continue to shake in their all the same, praying that things will work out.

    cheers


    This was posted around Jul 2009
    bahut acccheee ha ha (in Asrani style) ;)

    Just to reflect back why this did not materialize in practice. Think govt is not competing with others on money and have some other channels.

    In reality the West has hit the worst patch but the RE prices appreciation is still doing good.

    Blessed are the those who got carried away by the boom talk in 2009, for they shall see their owned house ;).

    Originally Posted by badethakur
    Point noted. But wouldn't that make sense only if demand was still at the same level. If the job market is down and common man's monthly expense has shot up by 40% then the demand will further go down. Unlike food grains RE is not something that common man needs to exist and hence demand will go down further. ( this is of course a layman's view which might be at odds with economic theories and trends):D


    thakur chacha ( think related to ninja chacha :D) . all this logic does not work in growing economy as apparant in last 3 years.

    Originally Posted by wiseman
    From 2400 to 3000 in this market even by a stupid buyer looks too implausible. I don;t think anyone is that stupid! :D

    On the other hand in times of stress (or even otherwise) builders and other RE-interested people are prone to fraud - like doing circular trading or circular sales, i.e, selling between themselves at increasing prices and publicising it to create an artificial increase.

    If you are really serious, you might want to contact the actual buyer at that price and check out the credentials. You'll probably find out its a fraud.

    cheers


    tauba meri mein nahi bolnaaa ... mein nahin bolnaaa ... jaaaa ... mein nahin bolna (song by Chanchal from movie Bobby)

    Originally Posted by m_square
    ^^ very right.. people are getting into a mindset that current prices are least in a decade and hence giving their hard-earned money to these blood sucking builders...

    I say, WAIT guys... there is completely NO demand in the market.. I have met 3 people who have cancelled their bookings and loan from the bank... if we still hold and persevere.. just a matter of 2 months.. this diwali will be a big diwaala for these greed-stricken builders... :D


    again from 2009 Q3 ...


    Originally Posted by Space
    Hey Guys ..

    One thing I learned from this past year is that, regardless of whatever may be the condition ...

    People ARE buying homes in PUNE.

    So every economics goes for a toss. I know 13 people booked a flat in last 6 months and there are 7 more looking for it. This is just the case in the office. Don't want to talk about rest of them out there.

    There is still a pool of people like few of the bloggers here, who are waiting for that right momoent to buy. Which tells me they will buy sooner than later say 2011

    Then there are more people who have actually booked a 'economy' flat or purchases a land somewhere in outskirts because it was cheap. I fear them most .. because they will be ready to buy something else in next 2 years.

    It might be as simple as "How Many of Them Want to Buy Home" vs "How Many Homes Are Available" and Pune looks still good for Builders.



    Again from 2009 Q3, few people who looked with open eyes.

    Originally Posted by realacres
    Had this been the case, the rates at Baner-Balewadi would have been atleast 5k. 54% are unsold. Add to it resales.



    Man. we missed this hidden gem. you were so right about the prediction. They have rather surpassed. Heard some luxurous project launched with rate of 7K to 8K in baner.
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    It takes people at least 20 years in business to learn patience. If you tried really hard, you could reduce that period to 15! :D

    Currently we are right at the top of the relief rally from 8000 to 16000. You might notice that the previous 2 bear markets (1992 ans 2000) both rallies ended when 100% was hit (like it has now). Buying now into the market may give you another 10-15% (most people expect 17000 so you can expect the market to stop short and then give way again). On the other hand, decline can go back all the way to 8000, if the conditions in the US takes a turn for the worse (merely reflecting the real underlying timebombs lying around in the vaults of the FED and major banks). So a 1:8 Gain/Loss probability is a perfect recipe for disaster. If you had bought at 8800, you would have had a 10:1 ratio for gain/loss.

    One needs to sit on ones cash for some time to see which way the wind is starting to blow decisively!!! The kep word is decisive as that would have established the trend. Once the trend is established you can then decide to jump accordingly.

    I would wait till Dec 2009 or even early 2010 to see if this bear market has truly ended as the bulls say or is there still much more to come. Then decide. MEanwhile, RE prices may tank another 10% - 20% (to your luck) and you may have earned some interest on the cash, so, net-net your loan outlay may decrease substantially?!

    cheers


    So where do we stand now on this ?


    Originally Posted by wiseman
    Ash,

    m_square is right when he says that it might come there!

    There is a school of thought which follows price charting or technical analysis (they do fundamentals as well). There are many techniques within charting itself and one of the more powerful ones is the Wave Theory. RN Eliott's Wave Theory is only one of the many theories and is quite powerful and accurate (like palmistry, astrology and Vaastu it's accuracy depends on the practitioner! :D). And Bob Prechter is only one of the many theorists (though he is the most vocal). Please note that no one is perfect and in the 1970s, when he was entering this field he did fail a coule of times in his predictions, though currently, his organization has been rather accurate in their predictions! Here is a link to another one I found interesting ...
    http://www.safehaven.com/article-14073.htm

    And the chartists believe the following:

    1. This time around there are waves of different frequencies all converging in this time period. The Cycle, Supercycle and Grand Supercycle waves are not only converging, they are also heading towards a major bottom at the Grand Supercycle level (i.e, 300 years cycle).

    2. The strength and depth of the fall this time around is more than the 1930s fall (in the first year). Therefore the possibility of this fall being at least as bad as the one in 1930s is quite high.

    3. We are currently in the leg 2 rally after the leg 1 fall from 14100 to 6500 on the Dow.

    4. The next leg 3 downwards is usually the strongest and deepest leg of the 5 leg cycle. This leg is targetted at reaching 5000 or just below. IT is expected to start late 2009 or at most early 2010.

    The fundamental reasons for this fall (which will come later as justification for the fall by people trying to rationalise it) will be the failure of the stimulus program, renewed increase in foreclosures, renewed increase in unemployment (rising to around 12% upwards, which is 18% up if you take total unemployment), renewed failure of large banks (Citi, JP Morgan, etc) and a deepening of the deflationary wave sweeping across the globe.

    To answer your question, final bottom may take 4 years from the start or more. Target date is around late 2012. The depression may take much longer to complete and may exceed a decade before new bull markets are established.

    You are of course free to completely rubbish this theory as many have already done!!! :D

    cheers



    So where are bicycle , tricycle heading now ?


    Originally Posted by nolia2009
    dont rush for to buy properties..wait till 2010..pune builders are doing trick and making panic in market...after deewali they will definately come down..hold your money



    Again a gem from 2009 Q3 .. ppl should have held till Diwali or till 2010 ?

    Originally Posted by Navina
    ^ Diwali has passed. Can you please let know which projects have dropped rates.


    Originally Posted by realacres
    C'mon, RE is not an aircraft which you can see crashing within 24 hrs.



    LOL :D good one RE. Its not a aircraft but an international space station .
    Navina man. you lack basic patience and cannot wait at least a decade to pass.

    Originally Posted by findingnemo
    guys i really doubt all these predictions. Either the author has not bought the flat he wanted at right time or whatever is the reason. Dude this is not coming going to happen, as all the post diwali negative rhetoric never worked out and rates went up.
    In 2011-2012 period markets will be at there peak, i assure you.


    Some wisdom starts dawnign in IREF :D

    Originally Posted by compuwalah
    Not sure why there is so much prediction about negetive side. On the contrary I feel things will go in opposite direction. We have just started seeing what happens when countries start opening up with more relaxed trade rules. IT boom in India was one big example as India is now seen a undoubted service provider (note - not producer like US). Few years back when Chinese PM came to India, he accepted this fact and rather than foolishly trying to compete India, he invited all Indian majors to put up shop in China. He even said that Indian prowess and Chinese strength in hardware, if comes together, can dominate the world. China on the other hand is seen as undoubted manufacturing powerhouse of the world and even chinese goods are very well accepted in India. Similarly each country will find its own special streghth and make big on that one. I rather feel that we are rather on the verge of a major boom. However the benefits of the boom may not be uniform . It may rather lead to some countries benefitting less than others or maybe some countries rather having negetive impact. Again withn the country certain sections will benefit more or less depending upon situation. Time will only tell what's in store. The events in US and Dubai happened at a good time. This will be a big lesson for world economy and the regulation will be more stringent in future. Such event may even happened in history when concept of banks came into existence. Noone now will remember those incidents. But the scale or size of impact would have been less (what happened to Karad bank in Mah). I am not sure of what impact the events will have on real estate as its just a matter of demand supply. If the movement of world economy will further demand of storng urbunization, overall RE prices may increase but there may be some dip cycle in between. If somehow work from home concept clicks and broadband penetration is signifincat in the country, then more population will move to rather more affordable areas or even may move out of metros bringing down RE prices significantly.



    bull start clearing their throats in 2009 Q4 :D

    Originally Posted by wiseman
    Compuwalah, Nemo, etc

    You might think I was born with a frown on my face!:D

    But most of my money was made as a bull. The reason I'm so gloomy about the world today is this ...

    Almost all rules of safety and transparency have been set aside by the biggest risk takers of the world today. ..... and SEA OF WORDS ....


    and intimiditation starts almost immediately. :D

    Originally Posted by puser
    it was good time to buy in 2009 in retrospect. my friend bought 2 bhk in kothrud for 36 lakh in sep 2009 and now its costing around 50-60 lakh...good decision i would say and got good teaser interest rates from SBI for 3 years fixed. now such prices doesnt seem realistic. Although current economic crises in US and Europe are far worse than that of 2008



    and some peopel start to come to term with reality .
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  • Originally Posted by compuwalah
    This was posted around Jul 2009
    bahut acccheee ha ha (in Asrani style) ;)

    Just to reflect back why this did not materialize in practice. Think govt is not competing with others on money and have some other channels.

    In reality the West has hit the worst patch but the RE prices appreciation is still doing good.

    Blessed are the those who got carried away by the boom talk in 2009, for they shall see their owned house ;).



    thakur chacha ( think related to ninja chacha :D) . all this logic does not work in growing economy as apparant in last 3 years.



    tauba meri mein nahi bolnaaa ... mein nahin bolnaaa ... jaaaa ... mein nahin bolna (song by Chanchal from movie Bobby)



    again from 2009 Q3 ...





    Again from 2009 Q3, few people who looked with open eyes.




    Man. we missed this hidden gem. you were so right about the prediction. They have rather surpassed. Heard some luxurous project launched with rate of 7K to 8K in baner.


    I am one of the victim still searching.. :(
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  • @compu: very good analysis.. you really dig deep in the threads.. :Applause:

    I was going through some initial pages of Hubtown Countrywoods thread.. man o man.. prices were 2700 in 2010 and bears on this forum were saying not to buy. see now, project is near possession as some buyers have received pre-inspection letters. rates are 4k psf now.
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  • A person in the right mind can never miss the bus....

    Guys,

    After going thru thousands of posts on this forum I have understood that....

    If one has the money for down payment... If one gets the desired loan... then no person can resist the temptation of buying his first/dream home....

    Bears on the forum who give all kind of logic and reasons of recessions, affordability, of being slave to EMI ... etc etc... is complete bull s**t....

    A smart guy will do this maths right.. visit the forum to check what people have posted about his dream project and then make the move....

    After buying they continue to visit this forum to check if property prices have risen and if their flat location has developed further or not...

    So the bottom line is...
    people are smart... they do not need the experts of this forum to tell them right / wrong time to buy property.... they buy and come back to the forum just to feel proud of their decision....
    nothing more ...nothing less...
    i know that i am being honest.... so...take it ... or leave it...
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  • Originally Posted by tarcap
    Guys,

    After going thru thousands of posts on this forum I have understood that....

    If one has the money for down payment... If one gets the desired loan... then no person can resist the temptation of buying his first/dream home....

    Bears on the forum who give all kind of logic and reasons of recessions, affordability, of being slave to EMI ... etc etc... is complete bull s**t....

    A smart guy will do this maths right.. visit the forum to check what people have posted about his dream project and then make the move....

    After buying they continue to visit this forum to check if property prices have risen and if their flat location has developed further or not...

    So the bottom line is...
    people are smart... they do not need the experts of this forum to tell them right / wrong time to buy property.... they buy and come back to the forum just to feel proud of their decision....
    nothing more ...nothing less...
    i know that i am being honest.... so...take it ... or leave it...


    u a damn right tarcap, tumne to meri mooh ki baat chinli....no matter how high the rates go there will be always buyers, the spectators will be mere spectators and will always try to reach the end of rainbow....which wont happen....the smart ones are those who hit the hot iron when ever they r comfortable and ready to take the risk....
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