Hi All ,

I hear that the Blue Ridge Phase II is not doing well. Anyone having any updates on this scheme? What is the possession date for phase II? Heard a lot of cancellations have been happening there any idea please update.

Thanks in advance.
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  • Originally Posted by Superduper
    One person's "investment" today is other person's "home" tomorrow.


    didnt understand this? it may be other person's home but the one person is looking at it only from financial perspective. are the investor going to think of the buyer's comfort because buyer is going to call it a home??
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  • Originally Posted by punerebuyer
    didnt understand this? it may be other person's home but the one person is looking at it only from financial perspective. are the investor going to think of the buyer's comfort because buyer is going to call it a home??


    If investor doesn't care what the future end-user would want.....s/he is naive.

    So when it comes to a home-purchase in the real world, I see interests of investors and end-users are pretty much aligned....with few exceptions.



    Example of exceptions are...
    -Investors tend to be more adventurous than end-users and book early in an under construction projects...not knowing fully the particulars of the final outcome....for sake of higher profit.
    -End-users tend to be more adventurous than investors in finances and tend to take loans "to get what I want".

    Risk for investors.... Cost for end-users.
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  • My analysis was from the financial perspective only. For people who really want the Blue Ridge home ownership or living experience, i have outlined the various ways of entry to that in terms of lowest financial impact using project lifecycle and Tower numbers.


    Dear neighbors and future neighbors, i am not a project detractor or a 'Bear' in terms of economic views, infact i am already invested in Blue Ridge. Informed decision making and some planning even for emotional matters (i.e. having kids or homes) does not hurt anyone :)

    There is a difference between:
    Investor and a 'Successful-Investor'
    End-user and a 'Happy-End-User'

    If there is any discrepancy in my numbers or way of analysis, please do share alternative calculations or view.
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  • Originally Posted by Superduper
    humble_guy's analysis from COLD INVESTOR LOGIC....is "right on the money"....( pun intended :-).

    On the other hand….one may ask WHY ..why in the world, generation after generation keeps spending their precious resources after this one asset....never-mind the “opportunity cost”.
    Why a home is more than just for shelter, convenience, comfort and a cold investment?? One may ask.

    It’s a statement about yourself......your home declares to your friends and family that you "have arrived".

    Since a family's social standing depends on whether home they live in is "theirs or not" ( and other such symbols )......in real world....."cold investor logic" is almost never applied to rent vs. purchase of long-term dwelling i.e. Home.

    If cold investor's logic was applied......I hear...most of us won't have had kids either.
    I know it’s slightly embarrassing to admit it...but it’s true.
    Of course, in kids' case its not for the social standing.....kids represent our innate urge to procreate and they are symbol of love.



    Agreed. for end use people don't do these calculations. People first decide that whether he/she wants to reside in own house or rented house. When decision is for own house he/she go for purchase. From them it doesn't matter what will be the cost of house they are purchasing after 5 or 10 years.
    But the investors who put their money in RE for appreciation must become cautious because new inventory from BR , Megapo, Eon, Life repub. & other builder will come in market
    & in this slow market future appreciation is likely to be very-very slow or there may be stagnation of price or may even be some correction in near future. The result of Parliamentary election will also have some impact
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  • Impulsive decision must be resisted at this point of time
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  • Originally Posted by banwari
    Impulsive decision must be resisted at this point of time


    Pune realtors have tried to play fear game this year again. In spite of poor sales numbers last year they tried to put up brave face by further raising rates and creating a picture of runaway prices further taking more buyers away from the market. I can't see people making impulsive decision, they are in more wait and watch mood.
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  • Originally Posted by realpune
    Pune realtors have tried to play fear game this year again. In spite of poor sales numbers last year they tried to put up brave face by further raising rates and creating a picture of runaway prices further taking more buyers away from the market. I can't see people making impulsive decision, they are in more wait and watch mood.


    it will be better to watch the situation till election & grab the favorable offer
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  • Originally Posted by realpune
    Pune realtors have tried to play fear game this year again. In spite of poor sales numbers last year they tried to put up brave face by further raising rates and creating a picture of runaway prices further taking more buyers away from the market. I can't see people making impulsive decision, they are in more wait and watch mood.


    No matter how impulsive buyer is, fact today is buyers pocket is not big enough to buy flat at current rates, so no matter what his/her impulse is, s/he has to control the act of buying which may not be done by himself but his pocket.
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  • Today I was surprised with total cost for 1157sq feet in empire estate, chinchwad to be quoted as 83L
    It is comparable to BR price. Lookalike no sign of RE prices coming down
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  • Originally Posted by humble_guy
    , due to the 650 new flats inventory coming up shortly.


    Any idea when ?

    Originally Posted by humble_guy
    , Also the bigger Paranjape project of 200 acres with a bigger golf course, ..


    Does anyone know if this township will be in someway attached to BR ?
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  • Originally Posted by humble_guy
    , will futher add more and more inventory at cheaper builder rates..



    All the bears have been huffin n' puffin since start of the boom....that....builders / politicians are the ones keeping the prices artificially high.

    I don't know who is right...you or the bears !!

    Honestly, if bears are right.....I want builders to keep building in the area for years and years and thereby bring full might of theirs and politicians' liquidity to support the prices...for themselves and also for me and you ( whether or not we'r selling ).


    Originally Posted by humble_guy
    , It would be better to rent and buy the upcoming CLP linked towers, if staying in Blue Ridge is the ultimate goal and focus of your life.


    This one flies in face of realacers and his kind ..who insistently recommend end-users to buy only move-in-ready units....since "who knows what builder will deliver and that too when ???".

    humble_guy....BTW I am vehemently with you on this point.
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  • Originally Posted by humble_guy

    Overall effect:
    #1. beneficial for T20-T23 investors as their Present Value of all CLP linked outflows is around 40L-47L only (at 10% assumed interest on money). feel free to calculate for FV of 73L-86L over 6 years (payment every 3 months) at 10%. the range is due to variable booking prices for investors depending on the stage at which they invested.

    #2. Profitability is limited or/and stagnation for T1-T8 folks who bought at 40L-45L rates

    #3. Bad for all the T5-T14 investors as they would be taking the project lifecycle hit, as their deliveries would be at the lowest point of the entire cycle. but somewhat mitigated as they bought and paid in CLP

    #4. Worst for the T1-T14 investors who have bought recently in resale or planning to buy in the next 2-3 months in resale, with full price upfront. They would be bear the 100% brunt from both ends. Please avoid at all costs!

    .


    I didn't get what you mean by "project life-cycle".

    When X in tower 1 booked at 1/4 the price (with CLP) 6-7 years ago ( compared to what investors of last towers will have paid )......she faced the prospects of thousands of more apartment inventory hitting the market after she gets the unit.
    And you find her to be in better position as far as " project life cycle" is concerned than,....say Y who booked 3 years back in towers 5-14....at a price double ( CLP ) than X's....but Y faces half the inventory hitting the market (until end of the whole project) after she gets her unit.
    And Z who books in T-15-23 is paying 4 times the price ( CLP ) than what X paid but faces almost no competition in resell after she gets her unit.

    Where in this process the "project life cycle" hit is?
    What makes Y have the "worst project life cycle" hit ?

    One books early.....at lower price......and realizes higher profit when project is done....Vs. other books later in the project and realize lesser profit upon completion of the project.
    Simple enough.

    To me it looks like a "continuum" from beginning to end......and not a "cycle".

    BTW
    We are not talking about inconvenience of having to raise your family in a construction zone......( if that was the case X would be the worst off )....but we are talking about numbers.



    On the other hand...
    I do agree, investor/end-user who buys ready unit paying lump-sum money at price equal to what CLP-buyers of under-construction towers are paying is likely shooting herself in foot....as far as profitability is concerned.
    BUT a end-user who takes realacer's advice to heart will precisely do just that....since she will be getting "ready" unit !!
    To add to it......I would demand from her more than what CLP guys are paying......and she may agree....since my unit is "move-in ready" and so demands a premium !
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  • Hi Superduper, these are very valid questions and thank you for reading through my long and slightly unpleasant analysis :)

    Here are my thoughts on the points that you discussed above:
    #1. the next 5 towers (650 flats) can be launched as early as in 2 months or may even take longer and be launched piecemeal 2 towers first and then 3 towers after a few months. The paperwork is already in the govt offices for permissions.

    #2. The 200-250 acre township would be in hinjewadi only, sales person hinted that it is within 1 km radius, but they are trying for some additional land acquisition using the cash from SEZ sale.

    #3. realacres advice is mostly good in 2 cases, which holds for most projects in Pune/Mumbai, but probably not 100% in Blue Ridge:
    a) when there is project risk .
    b) the difference between the ready-to-move and the underconstruction is large, and there is self-funding availability.

    #4. regarding my suggestions earlier, here are couple of illustrations:

    Scenario 1: For people who booked during underconstruction stage:
    people who bought in 2007-2008 in phase 1: their landed cost at this point in time would be around 50L .
    people who bought in 2010 in phase 2: their landed cost at this point in time would be around 55L
    people who bought in 2012-13 in phase 3: their landed cost at this point in time would be around 48L

    Scenario 2: For people who are buying in resale now for RTM option:
    the landed cost at this point in time is around 80L

    Scenario 3: For people who are buying underconstruction in Blue ridge, and also staying on rental in Blue ridge:
    the landed cost is somewhat around :55L

    Now to make it further interesting,
    consider the leftover liability in all the 3 scenarios:
    Scenario 1: around 20-25L of loan probably in all 3 cases by the time the building is RTM
    Scenario 2: 50L of loan
    Scenario 3: around 30L-35L of loan

    The above is a very simplified explanation. Mostly you have to look at it from the concepts of Present value of money and cash flows.

    Which means even if Phase 3 flats are 75L-86L on builder's rates, but the present value is actually less than 45L, which is around the same price as Phase 1 and Phase 2 (Present Value of all the CLP payments made by those unit owners)

    Buying in resale in anything above 55L-60L (all inclusive) is a very bad financial and emotional decision!

    Hence, i would still reiterate:
    It would be better to rent a flat in Blue Ridge and buy the upcoming CLP linked towers, if staying in Blue Ridge is the ultimate goal and focus of your life. Thus eventually resulting in house ownership as well as the Blue Ridge residency in the meanwhile.
    Scenario 1: around 20-25L of loan probably in all 3 cases by the time the building is RTM
    Scenario 2: 50L of loan
    Scenario 3: around 30L-35L of loan

    The above is a very simplified explanation. Mostly you have to look at it from the concepts of Present value of money and cash flows.

    Which means even if Phase 3 flats are 75L-86L on builder's rates, but the present value is actually less than 45L, which is around the same price as Phase 1 and Phase 2 (Present Value of all the CLP payments made by those unit owners)

    Buying in resale in anything above 55L-60L (all inclusive) is a very bad financial and emotional decision!

    Hence, i would still reiterate:
    It would be better to rent a flat in Blue Ridge and buy the upcoming CLP linked towers, if staying in Blue Ridge is the ultimate goal and focus of your life. Thus eventually resulting in house ownership as well as the Blue Ridge residency in the meanwhile.
    Scenario 1: around 20-25L of loan probably in all 3 cases by the time the building is RTM
    Scenario 2: 50L of loan
    Scenario 3: around 30L-35L of loan

    The above is a very simplified explanation. Mostly you have to look at it from the concepts of Present value of money and cash flows.

    Which means even if Phase 3 flats are 75L-86L on builder's rates, but the present value is actually less than 45L, which is around the same price as Phase 1 and Phase 2 (Present Value of all the CLP payments made by those unit owners)

    Buying in resale in anything above 55L-60L (all inclusive) is a very bad financial and emotional decision!

    Hence, i would still reiterate:
    It would be better to rent a flat in Blue Ridge and buy the upcoming CLP linked towers, if staying in Blue Ridge is the ultimate goal and focus of your life. Thus eventually resulting in house ownership as well as the Blue Ridge residency in the meanwhile.
    Scenario 1: around 20-25L of loan probably in all 3 cases by the time the building is RTM
    Scenario 2: 50L of loan
    Scenario 3: around 30L-35L of loan

    The above is a very simplified explanation. Mostly you have to look at it from the concepts of Present value of money and cash flows.

    Which means even if Phase 3 flats are 75L-86L on builder's rates, but the present value is actually less than 45L, which is around the same price as Phase 1 and Phase 2 (Present Value of all the CLP payments made by those unit owners)

    Buying in resale in anything above 55L-60L (all inclusive) is a very bad financial and emotional decision!

    Hence, i would still reiterate:
    It would be better to rent a flat in Blue Ridge and buy the upcoming CLP linked towers, if staying in Blue Ridge is the ultimate goal and focus of your life. Thus eventually resulting in house ownership as well as the Blue Ridge residency in the meanwhile.
    Scenario 1: around 20-25L of loan probably in all 3 cases by the time the building is RTM
    Scenario 2: 50L of loan
    Scenario 3: around 30L-35L of loan

    The above is a very simplified explanation. Mostly you have to look at it from the concepts of Present value of money and cash flows.

    Which means even if Phase 3 flats are 75L-86L on builder's rates, but the present value is actually less than 45L, which is around the same price as Phase 1 and Phase 2 (Present Value of all the CLP payments made by those unit owners)

    Buying in resale in anything above 55L-60L (all inclusive) is a very bad financial and emotional decision!

    Hence, i would still reiterate:
    It would be better to rent a flat in Blue Ridge and buy the upcoming CLP linked towers, if staying in Blue Ridge is the ultimate goal and focus of your life. Thus eventually resulting in house ownership as well as the Blue Ridge residency in the meanwhile.
    Scenario 1: around 20-25L of loan probably in all 3 cases by the time the building is RTM
    Scenario 2: 50L of loan
    Scenario 3: around 30L-35L of loan

    The above is a very simplified explanation. Mostly you have to look at it from the concepts of Present value of money and cash flows.

    Which means even if Phase 3 flats are 75L-86L on builder's rates, but the present value is actually less than 45L, which is around the same price as Phase 1 and Phase 2 (Present Value of all the CLP payments made by those unit owners)

    Buying in resale in anything above 55L-60L (all inclusive) is a very bad financial and emotional decision!

    Hence, i would still reiterate:
    It would be better to rent a flat in Blue Ridge and buy the upcoming CLP linked towers, if staying in Blue Ridge is the ultimate goal and focus of your life. Thus eventually resulting in house ownership as well as the Blue Ridge residency in the meanwhile.
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  • It is always better to buy at very early stage (of course the risk of builder running away is there, you have to check and recheck everything). This gives a staggered payment schedule as well as time to accumulate funds. One may even avail of EMI holiday where she has to pay only interest on amount taken as loan.

    However paying full EMI after the holiday and paying rent over and above EMI is really taxing for many. The EMI of 80% loan of 80L house will be around 60,000. Plus the Housing rent of 14-15000 which will increase to even 20,000 in few years (I assume). So every month, there is a payout of 75000 or above, and this reduces the salary in hand substantially.

    That's why those who are looking for self use go for ready possession, because paying EMI + rent is back breaking.

    Also, for the advocates of rent:price ratio, for new project with many amenities, max 1:500 monthly rent to price ratio should be allowed. 14k rent to 86L price shows ratio of 1:618, which is very stretched even for a brand new flat with all the amenities. I would be targetting max 500 times of rent (if I were considering such project), around 70L. Which is what the prices comes around to by resellers, as quoted by someone above.

    What's the present per sq ft rate?
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  • Originally Posted by TheTruth
    It is always better to buy at very early stage (of course the risk of builder running away is there, you have to check and recheck everything). This gives a staggered payment schedule as well as time to accumulate funds. One may even avail of EMI holiday where she has to pay only interest on amount taken as loan.

    However paying full EMI after the holiday and paying rent over and above EMI is really taxing for many. The EMI of 80% loan of 80L house will be around 60,000. Plus the Housing rent of 14-15000 which will increase to even 20,000 in few years (I assume). So every month, there is a payout of 75000 or above, and this reduces the salary in hand substantially.

    That's why those who are looking for self use go for ready possession, because paying EMI + rent is back breaking.

    Also, for the advocates of rent:price ratio, for new project with many amenities, max 1:500 monthly rent to price ratio should be allowed. 14k rent to 86L price shows ratio of 1:618, which is very stretched even for a brand new flat with all the amenities. I would be targetting max 500 times of rent (if I were considering such project), around 70L. Which is what the prices comes around to by resellers, as quoted by someone above.

    What's the present per sq ft rate?


    Hello TheTruth,

    Last month I posted that they had quoted me 1.3 Cr All inclusive for 3bhk in Tower 9-14 for 1800 sq ft saleable

    I got a call from them 2-3 days ago and they are not willing to reduce the prices. Atleast not on the phone.

    Too high, IMHO. A team mate lives there on 15000 rent for 2bhk. Even that is too much but they agreed since 4 people are splitting the rent. In fact, the owner was asking 5000 per person, but they did not agree. I wonder since when did flats get rented on per person basis.

    Hope this helps.
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