Hi All ,

I hear that the Blue Ridge Phase II is not doing well. Anyone having any updates on this scheme? What is the possession date for phase II? Heard a lot of cancellations have been happening there any idea please update.

Thanks in advance.
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  • Originally Posted by poddar
    Not able to understand how BR became the most discussed project ? There must be some people purposefully discussing this project on this forum to draw attention of people.:bab (59):


    Good question. Never thought about it. :)

    Anyways, let's not hijack this thread by discussing issues that are not related to the BR project.
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  • Originally Posted by pnq2012
    Good question. Never thought about it. :)

    Anyways, let's not hijack this thread by discussing issues that are not related to the BR project.


    Good idea indeed. Home buyers must not be hijacked.
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  • Hello, I am new to this forum. What do you think about BR from purely investment viewpoint?

    I have booked a 2 BHK flat in Blueridge, golf course facing 5350 (total ~ 80 lac). I am planning to keep it for at least 5 years. Possession is after 2-3 years. The payment schedule will allow me to not take a loan.

    Do you think the appreciation will continue at the current rates? If it does, will there be a buyer pool to buy my flat at a cost of around 1.5 Cr or something like that in next 5-10 years?

    What do you think - keep it or cancel the booking? Appreciate any feedback from you guys!
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  • Originally Posted by wartea
    Hello, I am new to this forum. What do you think about BR from purely investment viewpoint?

    I have booked a 2 BHK flat in Blueridge, golf course facing 5350 (total ~ 80 lac). I am planning to keep it for at least 5 years. Possession is after 2-3 years. The payment schedule will allow me to not take a loan.

    Do you think the appreciation will continue at the current rates? If it does, will there be a buyer pool to buy my flat at a cost of around 1.5 Cr or something like that in next 5-10 years?

    What do you think - keep it or cancel the booking? Appreciate any feedback from you guys!



    If you are planning to stay here with family or parents, then BR makes sense.
    For an investor no juice is left.
    The rental returns are barely 1%-1.5% before tax. And capital appreciation is stagnating in that area and may even become negative in coming years. Study the oversupply situation in Noida and Gurgaon markets to get a trend of things.

    For an investor, the best time to enter was between 2008 - 2010 period in Blue Ridge.

    For new investors in the project, even after 5 years, the prices may still be stagnating in the 80L-90L price band due to huge oversupply.

    Reasons:

    #1. After 5 years, ready inventory of over 2000 existing flats in BR around golf course, plus 1200 flats in B towers near SEZ.

    #2. upcoming inventory of around 800-900 flats in Phase 4. depending on the final number of floors approved.

    #3. New Massive township to come up very nearby to BR by Paranjape builders with nearly 200 -300 acre size. with 18 hole golf course (more than double of BR). Expect around 10000 units of various sizes to come into the market in intervals.

    #4. Around 20000 units in Hinjewadi under various stages of construction

    There is a huge lot of supply in Hinjewadi and Blue Ridge. The demand supply gap is not favorable to sustained price increase.

    one has to understand that despite everything, moneyed people would want to stay in more central locations or posh locations in a city. Hinjewadi is actually not that location that someone would pay 1.5cr for a 2bhk!


    PS: (No Idea about the prices after 10 years.) depending on the final number of floors approved.

    #3. New Massive township to come up very nearby to BR by Paranjape builders with nearly 200 -300 acre size. with 18 hole golf course (more than double of BR). Expect around 10000 units of various sizes to come into the market in intervals.

    #4. Around 20000 units in Hinjewadi under various stages of construction

    There is a huge lot of supply in Hinjewadi and Blue Ridge. The demand supply gap is not favorable to sustained price increase.

    one has to understand that despite everything, moneyed people would want to stay in more central locations or posh locations in a city. Hinjewadi is actually not that location that someone would pay 1.5cr for a 2bhk!


    PS: (No Idea about the prices after 10 years.)
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  • Originally Posted by humble_guy



    If you are planning to stay here with family or parents, then BR makes sense.
    For an investor no juice is left.
    The rental returns are barely 1%-1.5% before tax. And capital appreciation is stagnating in that area and may even become negative in coming years. Study the oversupply situation in Noida and Gurgaon markets to get a trend of things.

    For an investor, the best time to enter was between 2008 - 2010 period in Blue Ridge.

    For new investors in the project, even after 5 years, the prices may still be stagnating in the 80L-90L price band due to huge oversupply.

    Reasons:

    #1. After 5 years, ready inventory of over 2000 existing flats in BR around golf course, plus 1200 flats in B towers near SEZ.

    #2. upcoming inventory of around 800-900 flats in Phase 4. depending on the final number of floors approved.

    #3. New Massive township to come up very nearby to BR by Paranjape builders with nearly 200 -300 acre size. with 18 hole golf course (more than double of BR). Expect around 10000 units of various sizes to come into the market in intervals.

    #4. Around 20000 units in Hinjewadi under various stages of construction

    There is a huge lot of supply in Hinjewadi and Blue Ridge. The demand supply gap is not favorable to sustained price increase.

    one has to understand that despite everything, moneyed people would want to stay in more central locations or posh locations in a city. Hinjewadi is actually not that location that someone would pay 1.5cr for a 2bhk!


    PS: (No Idea about the prices after 10 years.)

    Very informative & unbiased post. The area now is only good for end use

    Very informative & unbiased post. The area now is only good for end use

    Very informative & unbiased post. The area now is only good for end use

    Very informative & unbiased post. The area now is only good for end use
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  • Great Info. Didn't know about #3 and #4.

    But I suppose several lacs people work in Hinjewadi, with several thousands/lacs added each year. Then how does a construction of a few hundred or even few thousand flats will create situation of over supply?
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  • Originally Posted by wartea
    Great Info. Didn't know about #3 and #4.

    But I suppose several lacs people work in Hinjewadi, with several thousands/lacs added each year. Then how does a construction of a few hundred or even few thousand flats will create situation of over supply?


    wartea, Please share the source of your numbers above? (looks like you are not a resident of Pune)

    As per my understanding of the businesses in hinjewadi and salary structures in IT/ITES companies, it is unlikely that even 1000 people with salaries upwards of 15L-20L are presently employed in the few companies operating in that region in Hinjewadi.


    Most people work in the 3L to 8L range, which means it is unlikely that any of those would be able to purchase your 2BHK flat for 1.5crores in the future. Infact, even the ones earning 15L-20L will not be able to afford a 1.5cr flat, that too which is 2bhk only.


    PS: but anyways, if you have already made up your mind to sell the 2bhk after 5 years at 1.5cr, well no one can guide you here. Stick with the investment as per your projections, it is no use debating on projections. Only time will tell.
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  • Wartea,

    If you look at BR and other projects in the area, you will see that prices are not decided by pure demand-supply equation.

    Primarily they are decided by builders, who in turn looks at "what market will bear", what's her construction cost + over-heads...and so on....
    If demand is soft then the builders conveniently stop / delay construction and wait for demand to catch up ( why do you think BR is taking all these years to finish...huh ).

    As I see it....when you put your unit on market and be patient, you will always be able to sell your ready possession unit to an end-user at a price similar to what Mr. P will be charging for under-construction units in new upcoming neighboring town-ship.
    You are in fact taking advantage of his market survey.
    If he thinks demand-supply equation is not going to let him increase prices more than just inflation...he won't be putting up the whole new town-ship.

    When all construction is finished in the whole Hinjewadi area ( not likely for next 15 years at least )...it may be more of just pure demand-supply that will decide the price.
    BUT...
    While all this construction is going on.......Mr. P ( and his prices will beat the other projects in the area ) will give you a "floor" if you will, to your investment.... to be "marked to market" on your books.
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  • humble_guy, I just had an honest question, which you have answered. I appreciate that. I have not made up my mind on anything.
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  • Originally Posted by humble_guy
    wartea, Please share the source of your numbers above? (looks like you are not a resident of Pune)

    As per my understanding of the businesses in hinjewadi and salary structures in IT/ITES companies, it is unlikely that even 1000 people with salaries upwards of 15L-20L are presently employed in the few companies operating in that region in Hinjewadi.


    Most people work in the 3L to 8L range, which means it is unlikely that any of those would be able to purchase your 2BHK flat for 1.5crores in the future. Infact, even the ones earning 15L-20L will not be able to afford a 1.5cr flat, that too which is 2bhk only.


    PS: but anyways, if you have already made up your mind to sell the 2bhk after 5 years at 1.5cr, well no one can guide you here. Stick with the investment as per your projections, it is no use debating on projections. Only time will tell.


    I did not have anything to do, so just thought will add some points ..

    All approx - could vary upto 5k - About 30k in TCS (phase 3), 30k each in Infy and Cogni, 15k in TechM, Wipro -15k (?) - Blue SEZ itself has about 10k, several phase 2 - barclays, IBM, Mindtree etc would add up to another 20k.
    So we have 1.2 Lac working here. looking at the Blue SEZ expansion as well as other expansion plans - we could have about 10-15% growth in 2-3 years, so max we are looking at about 1.4L
    As rightly pointed out 80% of this population would be earning 1.6 to 6 L per annum. So that is out of picture. With 15% of the population with 6L to 12L, and assuming that 50% of these are DINKs who may have been onsite for a few years- you have 8% (3.5% + 5%) = aprox 8% of the people who can afford in high end housing which is 11,000. So situation is not that bad a number assuming that enough money has been accumulated/borrowed for a downpayment.

    The only worry is that salaries would remain stagnant, and hence the decision to buy a high end home, even for self use.
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  • Originally Posted by Krpune
    I did not have anything to do, so just thought will add some points ..

    All approx - could vary upto 5k - About 30k in TCS (phase 3), 30k each in Infy and Cogni, 15k in TechM, Wipro -15k (?) - Blue SEZ itself has about 10k, several phase 2 - barclays, IBM, Mindtree etc would add up to another 20k.
    So we have 1.2 Lac working here. looking at the Blue SEZ expansion as well as other expansion plans - we could have about 10-15% growth in 2-3 years, so max we are looking at about 1.4L
    As rightly pointed out 80% of this population would be earning 1.6 to 6 L per annum. So that is out of picture. With 15% of the population with 6L to 12L, and assuming that 50% of these are DINKs who may have been onsite for a few years- you have 8% (3.5% + 5%) = aprox 8% of the people who can afford in high end housing which is 11,000. So situation is not that bad a number assuming that enough money has been accumulated/borrowed for a downpayment.

    The only worry is that salaries would remain stagnant, and hence the decision to buy a high end home, even for self use.



    Thanks krpune for a mathematical view and a sense of projected numbers.

    You are right on about the assumptions of the stagnant salary growths and also the pre-requisite of having 40L-50L of accumulated self funding.

    well, another big assumption is that these high income DINKs will not have already made incremental investments in real estate as they progressed in life. Most people who can afford, have already bought their houses or booked under-construction properties and now burdened with EMI + rent together.

    Anyways, Lets calculate:
    1.5 cr price for 2bhk, i.e. around 1.6cr all inclusive with say 40L-50L downpayment, and then emi of 1.2Lakhs each month for 20 years. All this for a property which would be available in rental for 14K-18K per month.

    Now calculate who can comfortably pay a 1.2L per month EMI, certainly not a family whose annual income is barely 30L-40L. One would need annual family income of at least 60L to be able to afford those projected prices.

    I wonder how many families with upwards of 60L income exist in Hinjewadi region, who have not already invested in real estate? Would they be willing to live in a 2bhk?

    Indian Real Estate has had a dream run from 2004-2010, now it is time for the basic fundamentals to take over. Lets not assume the same rate of growth every year for the rest of our lives.
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  • ""Indian Real Estate has had a dream run from 2004-2010, now it is time for the basic fundamentals to take over. Lets not assume the same rate of growth every year for the rest of our lives.""

    Very true indeed.
    Fundamentals will always come to the fore.
    U/C projects will no longer give you 100 % returns.
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  • Originally Posted by wartea
    humble_guy, I just had an honest question, which you have answered. I appreciate that. I have not made up my mind on anything.


    wartea, thanks for your note.

    Infact, i too appreciate your raising a very valid investor question, which is not only in your mind but in any and every real-estate investor's mind. i.e. The return on investment.

    Am just taking the discussion forward with my thoughts on the general matter, which would probably provide the investors and end-users a certain point of view of analyzing asset pricing.

    PS: just so that you know, even i am a BR investor. And i like this project the way it has shaped up over the last 5 years.
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  • Originally Posted by wartea
    Hello, I am new to this forum. What do you think about BR from purely investment viewpoint?

    I have booked a 2 BHK flat in Blueridge, golf course facing 5350 (total ~ 80 lac). I am planning to keep it for at least 5 years. Possession is after 2-3 years. The payment schedule will allow me to not take a loan.

    Do you think the appreciation will continue at the current rates? If it does, will there be a buyer pool to buy my flat at a cost of around 1.5 Cr or something like that in next 5-10 years?

    What do you think - keep it or cancel the booking? Appreciate any feedback from you guys!


    I believe you got a good rate & based on the current prices. It is hard to say whether appreciation will continue or not. RE prices have been stagnant in quite a few parts of the city. One reason BR has seen a price hike is because there are not many affordable premium projects in west Pune & investments grew during this phase, since April 2012 - rate was 4500 and now advertised rate is 6000+.

    BR is still 5 years away from completion, so very hard to say what prices will be.

    BR is now working with a property management company that may have good information on resales. As a BR customer, you probably must have got the email. If not, contact your BR sales person. You will probably get better answers from the property management company.
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  • Originally Posted by Superduper


    As I see it....when you put your unit on market and be patient, you will always be able to sell your ready possession unit to an end-user at a price similar to what Mr. P will be charging for under-construction units in new upcoming neighboring town-ship.
    You are in fact taking advantage of his market survey.
    If he thinks demand-supply equation is not going to let him increase prices more than just inflation...he won't be putting up the whole new town-ship.


    Dont compare an individual's holding capacity to builder's capacity... remember that Mr. P has acquired the land long back so there are no increased land costs for him. He can keep the same prices and even be able to bear inflation losses by just reducing the margins a little bit.

    And someone has rightly said, after 5 years, you would be looking for an end user who is earning at least 40-50L per year and still wants to stay in a 2 BHK apartment.

    I know many people (from the companies KRPune mentioned) with 10+ years of IT experience with less than 15L CTC packages and are struggling to handle an EMI of 30-35K.

    From investment point of you, i think it is not a very good idea. The rates can go this high only if currency depreciates and everyone's salaries get double or triple in terms of numbers... but in that case, the profits are only notional.
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