Hi folks,

i have seen many folks here comment that property rates will be down by Diwali, or down in another 6-12 months etc...

I have been looking around last 2 months and have never seen any builder in Pune bringing down the rates, instead its increased by 5-10% in certain projects especially in the western part of Pune. I am looking for ready posession, or projects which can handover homes before March '10.

Is there any specific news someone is certain which can be a trigger to bring the rates down? local elections? Budget - July 09? is bottom still not reached in US/UK/western economies, and are we expecting more bad news which can affect jobs in Pune?

just wanted to know what makes buyers optimistic to wait for a RE downside?

Thanks.
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  • Originally Posted by tsongt
    Hi folks,

    i have seen many folks here comment that property rates will be down by Diwali, or down in another 6-12 months etc...

    I have been looking around last 2 months and have never seen any builder in Pune bringing down the rates, instead its increased by 5-10% in certain projects especially in the western part of Pune. I am looking for ready posession, or projects which can handover homes before March '10.

    Is there any specific news someone is certain which can be a trigger to bring the rates down? local elections? Budget - July 09? is bottom still not reached in US/UK/western economies, and are we expecting more bad news which can affect jobs in Pune?

    just wanted to know what makes buyers optimistic to wait for a RE downside?

    Thanks.


    tsongt,

    Can you please post this question on 'Property rates will be down by Diwali ?'. It will be good to have all discussion related to a single topic in a single thread.
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  • realpune,

    I am not here to flame anyone or be part of petty discussions which does not make any sense. And frankly, I do not have the time to take part in such threads which does not discuss the real issue or facts.

    I am looking for data, real experiences, and some advice. And I would like to filter these out before i make a decision to invest in my lifetime savings. And I guess many in this group look forward for similar information.

    Thanks!
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  • Originally Posted by tsongt
    Hi folks,

    i have seen many folks here comment that property rates will be down by Diwali, or down in another 6-12 months etc...

    I have been looking around last 2 months and have never seen any builder in Pune bringing down the rates, instead its increased by 5-10% in certain projects especially in the western part of Pune. I am looking for ready posession, or projects which can handover homes before March '10.

    Is there any specific news someone is certain which can be a trigger to bring the rates down? local elections? Budget - July 09? is bottom still not reached in US/UK/western economies, and are we expecting more bad news which can affect jobs in Pune?

    just wanted to know what makes buyers optimistic to wait for a RE downside?

    Thanks.


    1.) The prices have already started to fall. Look anywhere, Vimannagar, Hkaradi, Kalyaninagr, Baner, Wakad, Nanded City, Magarpatta etc.
    2.) Projects getting abandoned which means acute cash crunch to builders & no bookings.
    3.) Withdrawal of money by NCP for coming state elections. Nanded City price reduction from INR 3500/sq ft to INR 2500/sq ft is classic e.g. for the same.
    4.) Rising no. of home loan defaulters, making banks wary to lend despite rate cuts.
    5.) 30% correction in major builders like Rohan, Gera etc. with further nego. possible.
    6.) Builders' sources of funds has totally dried up, be it PE, FIIs, banks etc.
    7.) Affordable housing has made under-construction high priced projects inviable.
    8.) Most importantly, prices have crashed by 50% across India, Pune can't be an exception.
    9.) Major builders like Paranjape & DSK floating FD schemes. No sales offices at their site is clear indication that sales are not happening. Even other builders like Darode-Jog don't have site offices.

    Some good links here:-

    ]http://www.indianrealtynews.com/real-estate-india/public-sector-banks-witness-rise-in-home-loan-defaulters.html

    ]http://www.indianrealtynews.com/real-estate-india/indian-developers-seek-share-sales-to-settle-debts.html

    ]http://wealth.moneycontrol.com/authorarticle.php?id=12612
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  • tsongt,
    !!! WARNING !!! If you even hint at the prospect of realty prices not coming down, you will be labelled BROKER over here. Answer to your question: People are predicting this price slide based on magazine and newspaper articles
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  • In my opinion Rates will remain stable. 100 rupees up or down does not indicate any movement. Upword movement in share market is helping to improve sentiment of buyer but job insecurity in IT and condition in US & Uk is still a concern. Rates are already down 20 tp 30% from peak. If you are investor then no point in investing as rates might not go up to book profit but if you are a first time home buyer and your job is safe then you can book to save rent & get tax benefits.
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  • One may set a target price and the day you get that price for your dream house..just get it. Nobody really knows when the rates will be down. May be its today..may its 10 days after... We may never know which day the best rate has come and gone..

    Originally Posted by tsongt
    Hi folks,

    i have seen many folks here comment that property rates will be down by Diwali, or down in another 6-12 months etc...

    I have been looking around last 2 months and have never seen any builder in Pune bringing down the rates, instead its increased by 5-10% in certain projects especially in the western part of Pune. I am looking for ready posession, or projects which can handover homes before March '10.

    Is there any specific news someone is certain which can be a trigger to bring the rates down? local elections? Budget - July 09? is bottom still not reached in US/UK/western economies, and are we expecting more bad news which can affect jobs in Pune?

    just wanted to know what makes buyers optimistic to wait for a RE downside?

    Thanks.
    CommentQuote
  • Yup,
    i m one with you songT.

    Recently bought land thro' broker. Man there were buyers even before i had paid the full amount. Needless to say the price offered to me was attractive.

    But man there r gems of info available in the various threads despite the personal egos and bashing. U will only save ur money in the end and also avoid frauds and traps being better informed.

    best wishes.
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  • sansei, which city did you make the land purchase?
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  • Man ,

    East Pune
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  • Your timeframe is too short ...

    Originally Posted by tsongt
    Hi folks,

    i have seen many folks here comment that property rates will be down by Diwali, or down in another 6-12 months etc...

    I have been looking around last 2 months and have never seen any builder in Pune bringing down the rates, instead its increased by 5-10% in certain projects especially in the western part of Pune. I am looking for ready posession, or projects which can handover homes before March '10.

    Is there any specific news someone is certain which can be a trigger to bring the rates down? local elections? Budget - July 09? is bottom still not reached in US/UK/western economies, and are we expecting more bad news which can affect jobs in Pune?

    just wanted to know what makes buyers optimistic to wait for a RE downside?

    Thanks.



    TsongT,

    Right or wrong, your timeframe of 2 months is too short for you to make up your mind either way. Based on the start price, in 2 short months, prices may be slightly up, sightly down or simply flat. So, you can't conclude anyhow.

    What you should be looking at is, what are the fundamentals that are driving prices (and more importantly, sentiment, today)?

    Talk to people around you. Do they look happy? Are they confident of the future being strongly up? Or are they only hopeful that somehow things will turn up soon!

    Ultimately, buying property is like putting your hand down the narrow hole and then enlarging it by wrapping it around the property. It may go in easily, but once you got the property, the hand will not come out easily. If, after that the hole starts sinking, it will pull your hand and ultimately you as well downwards and this pull could be for years and years! You don't want to be in that position at any time of your life, if you can avoid it.

    This is why, the wise ones make sure that the economic climate seems good for a few years ahead at least before venturing out to make such large commitments. Bottom prices are reached when the doubtful economic scenario changes decisively to a "clear-sky" outlook for the next few years. From then on, even if you put your hand in the hole, you are sure that the hole will not sink and that (barring special circumstances) you will be able to cover your liabilities.

    Does that outlook look likely now? To me, the economic climate looks very patchy and doubtful for a few years to come. So, I keep my hand well away from that hole!!!

    So, my question in response to yours. Why do you think prices will go up? And if they do not go up, why do you want to commit to such large levels of debt when you can wait and (probably) get prices lower in real terms when your financial strength is better!!! And park your money in more liquid assets which may get better returns, so that, when you actually venture into RE, you are at an advantage?!

    You need to study prices at least at a 6 months and ideally annual or multi-year basis, since property prices have such a cycle-time. Not like the Stock or Commodity market where prices can fluctuate substantially within months.

    cheers
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  • Really nice analogy.. appreciate you sharing it with us.. i agree there will not be a dramatic rise or fall in prices now.. buy only when you feel sure of assurance for few years..
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  • cycle

    Apt reply Wiseman.


    Property cycles seems much longer, and we might be still in the downward cycle.
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  • if you buy after 2 to 4 years and rent a property in the meanwhile... you will save several 10s of lakhs.

    For the first time in 32 years India has gone into deflation (-1.6%) according to the inflation figures released by Govt today! And the slide is just starting...

    I remember flats that used to cost Rs 60L were sold at 17L in Mumbai during the 1996 crash! And that downturn was a very small thing compared with the current recession...
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  • Originally Posted by vbrege
    tsongt,
    !!! WARNING !!! If you even hint at the prospect of realty prices not coming down, you will be labelled BROKER over here. Answer to your question: People are predicting this price slide based on magazine and newspaper articles

    I like your comment. In Chennai forum where I vociferously believe RE prices have not fallen and now they are rising as well, the first abuse was to call me a broker! Well the truth is the guys who missed the bus in 2003-4 are crying so horribly that they think that their tears will bring down property prices. What they are missing is if they dont buy now in 2009, then their tears will become oceans in 2015 since prices are likely to change at a much faster pace now than it even did in the past 5 years,,,all the way upward!
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  • Originally Posted by Sansei
    Yup,
    i m one with you songT.

    Recently bought land thro' broker. Man there were buyers even before i had paid the full amount. Needless to say the price offered to me was attractive.

    But man there r gems of info available in the various threads despite the personal egos and bashing. U will only save ur money in the end and also avoid frauds and traps being better informed.

    best wishes.

    So you are a RE buyer but you seem to ask for prices to fall. Does it mean that you want gullible sellers to sell at lower prices to you? Is that your trick?
    CommentQuote