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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Originally posted by tarcap View Post
    Answer is simple: Because all the money is going into real estate
    Very funny. If money is going in RE, how can it be called as 12L/yr SAVINGS ??
    Or now you consider money in RE = Savings.
    If you are happy, you are successful.

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Anything from your income that you don't spend needs to be parked in some or the other asset class like re gold equity debt deposits art etc. So technically savings and re are both assets but of a different class

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by tarcap View Post
        What a weak argument.

        Rising inventory has no direct relation to a real estate bubble.
        This statement will come as a shock even for CREDAI Chairman.

        Moreover, what rising inventory you are talking about? Are there official statistics available from a credible agency or is it just something that you perceive.
        Now even if data comes from builder, you don't agree. Infact, I would go to the extend & say that real inventory is far more than what has been shown in this report.

        Only the top IT companies will hire 2.5 L new employees in this year. Assuming 20% of new hires will end in Pune, we can knock off 50K apartments.
        Assuming ?? Why do bulls only assume. Can we have actual data please.
        Also, what will be their salary ?? 20L/yr ?? Will everyone buy flat in Pune ? If not, how will it help to reduce the inventory ??

        Please add to this,

        -- number of investors
        What about EXISTING investors who are unable to sell ?

        -- number of jobs that will be created in automobile, manufacturing, pharma sector
        How much people in these sectors can afford a flat ?

        -- guys who are at onsite and have enough money for downpayment now
        Old logic. What's the current status of on-site ?? How many of them vis a vis flats which are up for sale from builders & investors ?
        If you are happy, you are successful.

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          IIP dips on manufacturing slowdown; inflation jumps

          Retail inflation surged to 7.96 per cent in July, up from 7.46 per cent in June, on account of higher food and beverage prices while factory output growth slowed to 3.4 per cent in June from 4.7 per cent in May on account of a sharp deceleration in manufacturing activity.

          The twin data sets released on Tuesday increase the challenges for both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government in their efforts to bring inflation under control and to boost economic growth.

          Factory output in June was largely dragged down by sluggishness in the manufacturing sector and contraction in the consumer durables sector.

          IIP dips on manufacturing slowdown; inflation jumps | The Indian Express


          Subdued IIP growth, rise in retail inflation worry India Inc

          India Inc today expressed concern over the uptick in retail inflation and soft industrial growth data.

          Subdued IIP growth, rise in retail inflation worry India Inc - Financial Express

          RE bulls,
          ^^ See man, IIP is down, so what now ?? Earlier too it was said don't jump on short term results, but as usual, bulls jumped & see what has happened. IIP has fallen by about 30%.

          Judging economy based on single month figs. is like proposing a girl for marriage in first meet.
          If you are happy, you are successful.

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Originally posted by tarcap View Post
            Southsea: A new launch project takes at least 3 to 4 years before it gets some good bookings. Till then its only air.

            Similarly, a new joinee in an IT company with 3.5L is not going to buy right away. He / She will earn 7 L after 4 years and 10L after 7 years. So, look at these hires as potential buyers.

            As a thumb rule, people who passed from IT engineering college in 2005 / 2006 will,

            1) Be married by now
            2) Would have at least had 1 onsite stint
            3) Would have at least saved 15 Lacs for down payment
            4) Would have already booked / or will look forward to book an apartment anytime now.

            Do a check within your circle. You will see that majority has done these things by now.

            Cheers.
            First, even 10L income can't buy a good flat in Pune. It was already posted earlier how one needs take home income of 17-18L/yr to afford a flat in Pune without over-leveraging.
            And, note that not all Pune is IT. And the current unsold flats outnumber the ITGs who are yet to buy first flat in Pune. People graduated from Pune & working in B'lore or GGN will buy there, not in Pune.
            Man, if what you said above had been indeed true, all flats would have been 'sold out' in BR, MP, LR, EL etc. which is not the case. Projects like Amanora are merely 30% complete by their own admission & even this 30% space is not yet sold out.
            Last edited by realacres; August 14 2014, 09:14 PM.
            If you are happy, you are successful.

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Originally posted by Sansei View Post
              Last election time I could get 20% + discount without showing even the check book.
              Man, that's the case even now. Free taxes itself means 15% discount in total price. Then waiver for manmaani charges, free parking etc. adds another 4-5% easily.
              What you simply need to do is do your money talking & see builder acting like a parrot !!
              When I spoke with my banker & asked him specifically about home loans, he said that compared to same quarter of 2013, this time there is a drop of almost 65% !! This should tell the real story.
              If you are happy, you are successful.

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Let us make it simple. How about a formula.

                Earning Per IT Person = ( IT export from Pune, for FY 2013-14 ) / approx IT population in Pune city


                If you agree with this, I will find correct numbers with proper source and then we arrive with money coming in Pune city per person. We can continue RE impact after that

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by Sj2013 View Post
                  Let us make it simple. How about a formula.

                  Earning Per IT Person = ( IT export from Pune, for FY 2013-14 ) / approx IT population in Pune city


                  If you agree with this, I will find correct numbers with proper source and then we arrive with money coming in Pune city per person. We can continue RE impact after that
                  Well, I won't agree with this formula as it is highly flawed. Let me give my eg. The company where I work has quarterly profits greater than entire yearly budget of PMC.
                  If you see the total profits of our company & total number of employees, each employee will be getting over 17 Cr/yr !!
                  Last edited by realacres; August 14 2014, 09:20 PM.
                  If you are happy, you are successful.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    Originally posted by realacres View Post
                    First, even 10L income can't buy a good flat in Pune. It was already posted earlier how one needs take home income of 17-18L/yr to afford a flat in Pune without over-leveraging.
                    And, note that not all Pune is IT. And the current unsold flats outnumber the ITGs who are yet to buy first flat in Pune. People graduated from Pune & working in B'lore or GGN will buy there, not in Pune.
                    Man, if what you said above had been indeed true, all flats would have been 'sold out' in BR, MP, LR, EL etc. which is not the case. Projects like Amanora are merely 30% complete by their own admission & even this 30% space is not yet sold out.
                    I agree 10 LPA is not a budget for a good home in Pune now-a-days,
                    but a 10 LPA person, if not having a home loan on his name is in a loss of (1.5+2.0)*0.20=0.6L.

                    This 5K per month is a permanent unrecoverable loss for that 10 LPA person.

                    I can prove more loss if person is taking 2nd home loan.


                    In short this tax saving aspect is forcing people to buy un affordable property

                    you see?

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Originally posted by realacres View Post
                      Well, I won't agree with this formula as it is highly flawed. Let me give my eg. The company where I work has quarterly profits greater than entire yearly budget of PMC.
                      If you see the total profits of our company & total number of employees, each employee will be getting over 17 Cr/yr !!
                      We have to agree certain things otherwise it is endless discussion.

                      IT companies in general pay 1/8 - 1/10 of (what they charge to client) to it's employee

                      With this logic your company may be a classical example for the population we are talking here!

                      We can definitely guess how much saving people do. When it come to home then everyone do saving, cut on doing unnecessary spending, etc
                      Last edited by Sj2013; August 14 2014, 09:44 PM.

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