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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Originally posted by ThodiSiZamin View Post
    As they say, in the long run we are all dead.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/25/bu...anted=all&_r=0



    The fact that cheaper apartments are avaliable close to city center means Mr Yoshihisa is not able to sell his apartment unless he takes a huge hit.

    So it doesnt really matter to him that after 100 years, the japanese market has picked up. there are so many people like him who have lost their peak years because of this irrational exuberance.

    The minute somebody says efficient market and Real Estate in the same sentence, you realize that they have no clue of what they are talking.
    Actually had expected a better "riposte", at least from you. This is too lazy.. the butterfly effect so RE is bad has been monopolized by one of the mods with same posts in multiple threads.

    Let us at least try to scratch the surface of the issue in Japan

    The Japanese govt is trying to increase inflation . Between 2000 to 2013 wages have fallen by 15%, inflation is -6 %. This is known as the lost decade.

    The real estate investment seems to have done better than stock market which fell from 39000 in 1989 to 8600 in 2002 and is currently trading at 15700 odd..@40% of the peak.

    http://www.economist.com/news/financ...without-higher

    ON MARCH 5th Seven & i Holdings, owner of the 7-Eleven convenience-store chain and Japan’s largest retailer, gathered some of its employees at the Yokohama Arena baseball stadium for an announcement. It would, it said, pay 54,000 of them more this year: some would get their first basic-salary hike in four years.

    This was so startling that NHK, Japan’s public broadcaster, led its nightly news with the story. Its lead presenter said he hoped it would encourage other firms to follow suit. Aghast interviewees on the streets of Yokohama told NHK they could not remember the last time their basic pay had gone up.


    For the great FD strategy.. the japanese equivalent below.

    http://www.economist.com/node/15176489

    With prices falling, even inert money in the bank or post office earned, in real terms, a small tax-free return. Once the banking system began to look frail, there was a boom in the sale of safes for people to keep their cash at home. A long period of zero interest rates led a few to hunt for higher yields abroad. The mythical figure of Mrs Watanabe—housewives in Japan manage the family money—invested in New Zealand dollars and Icelandic kroner 


    Mind you.. People who are forecasting a great fall in re.. The re fall will just be a fallout of the bigger issues.. And the smaller problem like in Japan

     As firms cut back, the proportion of full-time contract jobs has fallen from almost 80% of the labour force in 1990 to 66% in 2007, according to the OECD. The proportion of lower-paid non-regular jobs has risen correspondingly. This is partly down to the increasing role of women in the workforce, as declining wages and benefits force families to rely on two incomes.
    Last edited by Que Sera; October 3 2014, 10:25 PM.
    Life is what happens when you are making other plans. Enjoy it

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    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      thodi

      Govt in Cyprus, froze bank balances over a particular amount for some time. (If i am comparing japan.. Why not cyprus )

      Deposits exceeding eur 100,000 were treated as 40% interest earning security ( fd ?) and balance converted to shares and potentially convertible shares in Bank of Cyprus. And a one time levy on the deposits too.

      So do we stop bank deposits cos it can happen here too?? mind you this treatment was for the large value deposits.. So in India i guess you could peg the figure at rs 100,000

      If one chooses to nitpick and search for dangers, only way is to keep cash under the pillow.
      Life is what happens when you are making other plans. Enjoy it

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by realacres View Post
        Wipro has started a threeyear exercise to become a leaner company, initiating its most ambitious reorganisation effort since it started selling computers in 1981 and presaging similar moves in an industry that has been a prolific job-creator.

        India's third-largest software company employs 1.46 lakh employees and the aim, according to people familiar with the process, is to slim down by about a third without resorting to mass layoffs of the kind that IBM and Microsoft have effected this year.

        "We are looking to become around 100,000-strong.This is the plan or ambition, but it depends on how effectively we can deploy automation," said one of the sources.



        "The pyramid structure will give way to an hour-glass kind of structure," he said, indicating that Wipro wants a trim middle.

        Now, the pace of hiring by software services companies is slowing, but new opportunities are also opening up in the form of jobs at startups.While Wipro is one of the early movers in trying to cope with the structural changes in the technology business, experts said the software services industry — it employs about 3 million in India — is heading in the same direction."

        The model of mass hiring from campuses is dying," said Swami Manohar, a former computer science professor at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore and founder of Limberlink Technologies, an engineering education startup. "We are already seeing many engineering colleges shutting down, and unless there is a change within these colleges, companies will stop going to campuses altogether."

        With eye on future, Wipro staff recast gets underway - The Economic Times

        ^^ RE bulls, see the no. of employees hired above (present tense) & then come to conclusion rather than showing how RE will go only up based on proposed intake (future tense).

        Also, now when all the logic of RE bulls have fallen flat, they have resorted to some useless logic like how staying in rented flat means shifting here & there as if tenants as nomadic tribes.


        in your words this is PROPOSED oNLy right ...so why bother something whichs is propsed ...as per your own posts earlier ...

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        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          There is a world of difference between proposed roads,infra by Government agencies and proposed staff shedding by a private organisation.
          For private organisations,profit is the bottom line and they will move,unlike Government agencies where delayed completion is the norm.More you delay bigger is the outlay and benefits which flow to some people.
          The article says it has already started getting leaner.
          The employment pattern in software is changing.These changes are resulting in leaner employee profile for companies.It appears to me is if WIPRO cuts manpower,the manpower will always find alternative jobs.Mobility in software industry is high as such.
          It may not make much difference to RE industry anyway,unless many software people remain unemployed after WIPRO and similarly situated companies cuts manpower.

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Originally posted by vaibav123 View Post
            There is a world of difference between proposed roads,infra by Government agencies and proposed staff shedding by a private organisation.
            For private organisations,profit is the bottom line and they will move,unlike Government agencies where delayed completion is the norm.More you delay bigger is the outlay and benefits which flow to some people.
            The article says it has already started getting leaner.
            The employment pattern in software is changing.These changes are resulting in leaner employee profile for companies.It appears to me is if WIPRO cuts manpower,the manpower will always find alternative jobs.Mobility in software industry is high as such.
            It may not make much difference to RE industry anyway,unless many software people remain unemployed after WIPRO and similarly situated companies cuts manpower.

            man he has branded many updates of new hires and setups from corpoates as proposed and claimed they should not be taken seriously ... so basically there is complete lack of logic in argument ..

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            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              and anyway very few have patience to wait for 5 years for crash ..... many i know bought durig 2008-2012 and are living ahppily in thir appts without worrying abt price rize ....and not to mention satisfaction of stayin in ownhouse

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              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Tangent,
                My point is simple
                Proposed trimming by a private sector organisation and proposed roads/any work by a Government agency are as different as chalk and cheese.
                Government agencies keepings as proposed for years but private sector profit earning companies do not.

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by vaibav123 View Post
                  Tangent,
                  My point is simple
                  Proposed trimming by a private sector organisation and proposed roads/any work by a Government agency are as different as chalk and cheese.
                  Government agencies keepings as proposed for years but private sector profit earning companies do not.
                  my freind i am talking about private sector organisation updates only ... read my post again...
                  please stop justifying ur frnds stupid arguments

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    Originally posted by Tangent View Post
                    in your words this is PROPOSED oNLy right ...so why bother something whichs is propsed ...as per your own posts earlier ...
                    Man, why do you argue just for the sake of argument. To make things easy for you, let me explain a bit in detail :-

                    There is difference between PRESENT TENSE & FUTURE TENSE.
                    What lies in FUTURE is called as PROPOSED.

                    Do you agree with me till here ?? If yes, read on...

                    The post above stated in first para itself :-

                    Wipro has started a threeyear exercise to become a leaner company, initiating its most ambitious reorganisation effort since it started selling computers in 1981 and presaging similar moves in an industry that has been a prolific job-creator.

                    'Has started' words are used when things are moving on ground. >>>>> a)

                    PROPOSED is when it is in FUTURE TENSE :- 'Will start.' >>>>>> b)

                    So, there is difference between a) & b) statements above.
                    Therefore what has been posted above is not PROPOSED but already a REALITY which has started to take place on ground.
                    Let me know if there are any doubts.
                    Cheers.
                    If you are happy, you are successful.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Originally posted by Tangent View Post
                      and anyway very few have patience to wait for 5 years for crash ..... many i know bought durig 2008-2012 and are living ahppily in thir appts without worrying abt price rize ....and not to mention satisfaction of stayin in ownhouse
                      So enjoy the stay. Why bother what nomadic tribes are doing ?

                      Even Bank of India's ad says that home loan is better than rent (they will soon ask buyers to take auto-rickshaw loans than hire them.....kiraya to paraya hota hain ) :-

                      Bank of India Home Loans
                      If you are happy, you are successful.

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