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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Originally posted by aditi sharma View Post
    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

    Unemployment rate is unchanged at 9.7%.
    Net job loss in Feb was -36,000. Total 14.9 million are jobless.
    An interesting data to watch here is, no. of persons in temporary jobs increased from 8.3 million to 8.8million (an increase of 5L temporary workers).
    This means, lots of people are still lossing jobs and doing temporary jobs either because their working hours are cut or they are unable to find full-time job.
    Interesting Point Aditi. Given below is some portion od a New letter Article that i receive. Here too it it mentioned how the unemployment numbers are calculated.

    ========
    The workforce is defined as those people who are currently employed or people who the government determines are actively seeking employment. The way the government decides this is by stating that anyone who is unemployed for a year or more is considered to be not actively seeking employment, thus that person is pulled out of the workforce number.

    So, suddenly, an unemployed person is taken out of the calculation. These people drop off the workforce and, for all intents and purposes, are no longer considered unemployed. In this way, as more people lose their jobs, they are offset by unemployed people falling off the back-end of the workforce, holding the unemployment rate stable or possibly even lowering the number.

    Now, I understand what the government is doing here.

    I truly believe that if the person is unemployed for a specific amount of time in an ordinary economic situation, then that person is probably not looking to hard for a job and should be pulled out of the workforce.

    But, in a time like this, with a recession that is being compared to the Great Depression, a person could very easily be aggressively looking for a job and not find it. In this scenario, this specific time period that a person remains unemployed must be extended, and that unemployed person should remain part of the unemployment calculation.

    The funny part here is that government obviously agrees with me that this recession has brought about a difficult job market. They’ve even gone so far as to extend unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to encompass up to about 76 weeks.

    Yet the unemployed person still falls out of the workforce after a year. Funny how the government extends the benefits but does not extend the length of life on the workforce! Sure seems to favor the unemployment number staying low!

    So, the government can bend the unemployment rate by tweaking either number in the calculation, or both.

    But there is even more to it ... the revisions!

    Now, government can put forth a number that you want to hear or, more precisely, that the market wants to hear, and then revise it the next month. So, at any time, the government can make the number what they need it to be to make the market go up and then put forth the bad part in a revision the next month.

    This is a pretty good trick, isn’t it?

    The agenda of the government in this situation is not to give the individual investor, taxpayer or consumer the truth. The government’s agenda is to give people hope, to give people an optimistic view or at least the perception of an optimistic view.

    They want consumers to think that things are always getting better.

    The government won’t try to convince you that things are great when they are not, but they will spin it to positive any chance they get.

    And if that means playing with some numbers and putting an overly optimistic spin on them, then so shall it be!

    Remember: Don’t believe everything you read ... especially economic news coming from Uncle Sam!
    =============
    VK

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Originally posted by ankurp View Post
      Propmart is clearly intended towards buying than renting. The yahoo calculator is much more useful, as it takes monthly maintenance cost into calculations as well.

      Thanks for the links, they were helpful!

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Cost-cutting: ICICI sells Prabhadevi property

        http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/5661134.cms
        If you are happy, you are successful.

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Originally posted by ani_meher View Post
          Propmart is clearly intended towards buying than renting. The yahoo calculator is much more useful, as it takes monthly maintenance cost into calculations as well.

          Thanks for the links, they were helpful!

          The real question is what value should we enter in "Annual appreciation rate" for property and "Annual rate increases" for rent?

          What is the average value from past experience? For Pune?
          May be Experts/Senior members can tell.

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            In Delhi, Rentals in Gurgaon are falling precipitously.

            From 15000 pm to most new deals around 10,000 pm. A friend of mine gave out his 3BHK 1500 sf flat for rent at 8000 per month.

            All this excess supply in Sohna Road area is taking its toll. It should be the same story in Pune - unless there is massive cartelisation and collusion.

            Originally posted by home123 View Post
            The real question is what value should we enter in "Annual appreciation rate" for property and "Annual rate increases" for rent?

            What is the average value from past experience? For Pune?
            May be Experts/Senior members can tell.
            Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              ^^ there is a huge influx of IT ppl coming in Pune this year as many companies are on a hiring spree and thanks to many SEZs being developed in Pune.. So you can expect more and more ppl coming every year...

              RE prices will only go higher from here and there wouldnt be any significant drop in rental prices in good locations...

              This year..it'll be "ALL-SQUARES"

              Eat, Pray and Love

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Originally posted by m_square View Post
                ^^ there is a huge influx of IT ppl coming in Pune this year as many companies are on a hiring spree and thanks to many SEZs being developed in Pune.. So you can expect more and more ppl coming every year...



                can you elaborate this

                which are those companies hiring IT guys?

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
                  In Delhi, Rentals in Gurgaon are falling precipitously.

                  From 15000 pm to most new deals around 10,000 pm. A friend of mine gave out his 3BHK 1500 sf flat for rent at 8000 per month.

                  All this excess supply in Sohna Road area is taking its toll. It should be the same story in Pune - unless there is massive cartelisation and collusion.
                  Same story from Bangalore. One of my friend was mentioning that during boom time he was expecting rent of Rs 15,000+ now getting Rs 8000.

                  In Pune too there is no rise in rent from last 2 yrs, no fall either so far.. Rent is as stagnant as the prices are since 2008

                  There can never be a bubble in house rent prices. So this gives the true story. I have said this multiple times but again..
                  If the demand was more rent would have shot up.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    In few areas, people have also left the city as well. Seen 3 people in our society leaving Pune in past 3-4 months. Of the 3 flats, 2 are still vacant. The rentals too went up, but not the way in which RE prices shot up. Rentals too are seeing corrections as well. What's more, the brokers who earlier used to demand 2 months rent are now ready for 1 month or a flat 8-9k if the rent is more than 8k/month.
                    If you are happy, you are successful.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      In some areas, its also becoming difficult to find tenants.
                      In Kharadi, Owners are giving out 2bhk apartments with one bedroom locked, if they find a tenant with 1bhk requirement. This is the situation, no tenants.
                      Its difficult to compensate yearly maintanance charges on rentals forget return.

                      Originally posted by realacres View Post
                      In few areas, people have also left the city as well. Seen 3 people in our society leaving Pune in past 3-4 months. Of the 3 flats, 2 are still vacant. The rentals too went up, but not the way in which RE prices shot up. Rentals too are seeing corrections as well. What's more, the brokers who earlier used to demand 2 months rent are now ready for 1 month or a flat 8-9k if the rent is more than 8k/month.

                      Comment

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