Hereby I will prove how the realty boomers arguments are false.

What are the boomers arguments?

1.) Buy today, houses always increase in value in the long run.
WRONG. House prices cannot increase more than incomes in the long run. This is obvious if you think about it. If house prices go up more than people can afford to pay, buying stops, like it has stopped now.
Even Warren Buffett have pointed out that houses don't increase in intrinsic value. Unless there's a bubble or a crash, house prices simply reflect current salaries and interest rates. If a house is 100 years old, it's value in sheltering you is exactly the same as it was 100 years ago. Then came the maintenance as the house didn't renovate itself. It also has taxes, and insurance - costs that always increase and never go away. The price of the house went up about as much as salaries went up.
To put this is simple perspective, vegetable were costing Rs.5-6/kg when 5 digit salary was a rarity.
Today, the prices have gone up by about 4 times but so have the salaries. So, sounds very much like the reasoning people use now when they talk about how much their father's house appreciated "in the long run" without considering that salaries rose a proportional amount.

2.) Renting is just wastage of money.
WRONG. As said before renting is now much cheaper per month than owning. If you don't rent, you either:

* Have a mortgage, in which case you are throwing away money on interest, tax, insurance, maintenance, costs that increase forever.
* Own outright, in which case you are throwing away the extra income you could get by converting your house to cash, investing in bonds, and renting a similar place to live for much less money. This extra income is sufficient for emergency expenses,retirement etc.

Either way, owners lose much more money every month than renters and that's assuming prices don't correct to very high level & everything is smooth in the economy.

3.) As a renter, you won't have any money left as you will spend them on vacations,cars & hence won't have equity/savings etc.
WRONG. Equity is just money. Renters are actually in a better position to build equity/savings through investing in anything but housing. Renters can get rich much faster than owners, just by investing in conservative stocks & bonds.

* Owners are losing every month by paying much more for interest than they would pay for rent. The tax deduction does not come close to making owing competitive with renting.
* Owners must pay taxes simply to own a house. That is not true of stocks, bonds, or any other asset that can build equity/savings. Only houses are such a guaranteed drain on cash.
* Owners must insure a house, but not most other investments.
* Owners must pay to repair a house, but not a stock or a bond.
* Owners lose their money as house prices reduce. The EMI's remain constant in spite of reduction in rates. At the end of loan tenure, they would have paid almost twice than that of current renters who will buy at logical rates. Keep interest rates in mind. Most of the EMI is not principal amount but interest.

4.) There are great tax advantages to owning a house.
WRONG. Many people believe you can just reduce your income tax by the amount you pay in interest, but they are wrong. Buyers may not deduct interest from income tax; they deduct interest from taxable income. And even then, the tax advantage is not significant compared to the large monthly loss from owning.

If you don't own a house but want to live in one, your choice is to rent a house or rent money to buy a house. To rent money is to take out a loan. A mortgage is a money-rental agreement. House renters take no risk at all, but money-renting owners take on the huge risk of falling house prices, as well as all the costs of repairs, insurance, property taxes, etc.

5.) RE is based on local factors, it's not a national phenomenon. RE of Delhi-NCR,Bangalore & rest of the cities has nothing to do with Pune RE.
WRONG. Lending rates remain the same throughout the country. ALL loans are harder to get. This will drive prices down everywhere.

6.) A rental house provides good income. So, you can rent if you have purchased as investment.
WRONG. Rental houses provide very poor income in hyped areas and certainly cannot cover mortgage payments. Remember there is almost 300% difference between EMIs & rent for the same house.

It's pointless to do the work of being a landlord if you can make more money with no risk, no work, and no state income tax by investing in assured good returns bond.

7.) If owning is a loss in monthly cash flow, but appreciation will make up for it.
WRONG. Appreciation is negative. Prices are going down. It only adds to the injury of already high EMI's.

8.) As soon as prices drop a little, the number of buyers on the sidelines willing to jump back in increases.
WRONG. There are very few buyers left, and those who do want to buy will be limited by increasing difficulty of borrowing now that many house owners are near bankrupt as they don't save anything at the end of the month due to high EMI's.
No one has to buy, but there will be more and more people who have no choice but to sell as their payments rise. That will keep driving prices downward for a long time.

9.) House prices never fall atleast in Pune.
WRONG. If you see the RE scenario of 1996, prices crashed by 50% & took a whole 7+ years to recover.
Exact 1996 scenario may not be there today but strong correction is inevitable across the city.

10.) House prices don't fall to zero like stock prices, so it's safer to invest in real estate.
WRONG. House prices won't be zero, but the equity or the principal amount you paid can be zero or even negative. What you will pay as EMIs later in actual terms is not for the principal amount but only the interest as house prices dip. So, you will be only serving the bank.

11.) Prices will soften gradually, won't crash immediately.
WRONG. Prices are falling off a cliff. No one knows exactly what will happen, but it looks like prices will continue to fall for long time. These are just more manipulation of buyer emotions, to get them to buy even while prices are falling.

12.) The bubble prices were driven by supply and demand alone.
WRONG. Prices were driven by low interest rates and risky loans & good returns for investors in initial phases of boom in 2004-05.
Prices went up, interest rates went up & buyers savings went down. So prices are violating the most basic assumptions about supply and demand.

13.) There is lack of land.
WRONG. Ample of land is available & continue to be even in future in Pune. Sales volume are down. Even in Japan (small country with less land), prices went down. Current prices here are the same as that of 23 years ago. If we really had a housing shortage, there would not be so many vacant rentals.

14.) If you don't own, you'll live in a cheap neighborhood later.
WRONG. For the any given monthly payment, you can rent a much better house than you can buy. Renters live better, not worse. There are downsides to renting, such as being told to move at the end of your lease, or having your rent raised, but since there are thousands of vacant rentals, you can take your pick and be quite happy renting during the crash. There are similar but worse problems for owners anyway, such as being fired and losing your house, or having your interest rate and property taxes adjust upward. Remember, property taxes are forever.

15.) There's always someone predicting a real estate crash.
TRUE, yet irrelevant. There are very real crashes every decade or so. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

16.) Local incomes justify the high prices.
WRONG. The mortgage should be more than your 3 years earning. It is much higher today. Most are already in danger/red zone.

17.) You have to live somewhere.
CORRECT. But that doesn't mean you should waste your life savings on a bad investment. You can live in a better house for much less money by renting during the down slide in RE.

18.) It's not a house, it's a home.
WRONG. Wherever one lives in it is home, be it apartment, condo, bungalow , mansion or house. Calling a house a "home" is a manipulation of your emotions for profit.

19.) If you don't buy now, you'll never get another chance.
WRONG. History proves otherwise.
Here's a beautiful quote from a analyst:-
"The real issue isn't whether you will be stuck being a renter all your life, she says. Its whether you'll get so scared about being shut out that you'll buy at the market's peak and be stuck in a property you can't afford or sell."

20.) It would take major economic recession or a major earthquake that wipes out this area in order for the price to fall by over 50%.
WRONG. Even today, if the prices fall by 50%, there will still be very few people who can buy at this levels due to uncertainty in jobs & most importantly high EMIs. Also, look at the rental rates for equivalent houses. Which loss per month is larger? EMI or rent?

contd....
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  • Agree with what you said wiseman. Especially about Indian RE scenario of high price, low volume & high inventory. The biggest problem arises when the builder crushes under debt & is unable to complete the project due to lack of funds & this I can very well see in several builders. I have offers from some builders who say put your money as FD with us with 15% interest rate:bab (35):. This just means that builders aren't getting any credit from the market under 15% . Man, if the interest rate for builders is 20% or more, imagine the debt just because of interest rates!! There is the involvement of B-money but then the financier too wants to make money in limited time so he too can't hold for long. All in all, until & unless pricing is done logically & inventory cleared off, RE will be in deep mess in short term itself.

    * This threat is indeed true & hence we recommend buyers to go for resales or ready poss flats only.

    Btw, here is a famous Beijing residential complex. Several residential complexes are lying vacant in the city.
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  • When will the shoe drop?

    Originally Posted by realacres
    Agree with what you said wiseman. Especially about Indian RE scenario of high price, low volume & high inventory. The biggest problem arises when the builder crushes under debt & is unable to complete the project due to lack of funds & this I can very well see in several builders. I have offers from some builders who say put your money as FD with us with 15% interest rate:bab (35):. This just means that builders aren't getting any credit from the market under 15% . Man, if the interest rate for builders is 20% or more, imagine the debt just because of interest rates!! There is the involvement of B-money but then the financier too wants to make money in limited time so he too can't hold for long. All in all, until & unless pricing is done logically & inventory cleared off, RE will be in deep mess in short term itself.

    * This threat is indeed true & hence we recommend buyers to go for resales or ready poss flats only.

    Btw, here is a famous Beijing residential complex. Several residential complexes are lying vacant in the city.



    The Real question (pun not intended :), is, for how long will this situation go on before something gives way.

    On the one hand, builders cannot raise prices indiscriminately since buyer's capacity and patience is not all that high given that banks are not lending like its 2007. On the other hand, this precarious global economic scenario will keep the market see-sawing from up to down for quite some time to come thus preventing another boom in builder sales volumes.

    Something has to give under these circumstances and resolve this stalemate sometime. This could be either ...

    1. Low-no returns on investment which will make investments into RE projects unattractive, which will in turn make capital scarce and interest rates take off (making it even harder for builders to make money)

    2. A crash in markets in other countries which will make investment flee back, again making capital scarce.

    One or another thing will happen which will finally break this builder nexus in keeping prices high and then there will be a period when they reduce prices to get rid of inventory. Issue is, will this reduction lead to a crash (meaning, higher reduction in prices) for a short time while inventories clear?

    Is there any other scenario possible? I am keen to know!

    cheers
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  • Hmm, well this is the reason the "residex" data is of huge importance and now banks/rbi will keep a record of all transactions of properties with Cibil. We now only have the price index from NHB website but not the volumes, I am sure the absorption rates are lower than 50%, and the volumes have drastically reduced.

    So, low volumes, high prices, lets see how long these guys can hold on to the inventories. They dont want to lower the prices and clear inventory, we dont to be the "optimistic" or "foolish" purchaser.

    I think this tussle will continue until -

    1. We have a fully functioning regulator in place, I am optimistic about Land Bills and Real Estate bills by 2013.
    2.The banks/RBI stop re-structing RE loans - which they have.
    3. The politicians/builders nexus is exposed and suddenly PEs/policians feel RE is the bad place to be.

    Once, these 3 things happen, and the job market remains stable which I am sure it will - we will definately see a period of consolidation and stagnancy in next 3-5 years.

    I am targeting 2013-2014 as my year of purchase - 7 years away from the PEAK of RE Bubble in 2007.

    2 RUN UPS in one GO in RE -- IN HISTORY IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED -- NOT EVEN IN CHINA - HISTORY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LAW OF AVERAGES.
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  • Hi Wiseman, I agree with your China scenario.

    I felt it was so way back in 2005, but China has managed to juggle all its balls for full 5 years after people flagged the problem.

    Given the global weakness, they just might pull it off. My respect for China has increased a lot after seeing how they handle their economy and foreign policy.

    They may well be the best we have ever seen, even better than the British - who were really good.

    Re: India, all signs point to high (but not hyper) inflation rather than crash or deflation.

    USA and Europe will deflate like Japan.

    China will probably start a war.

    India has 14% plus consumer price inflation. I epect this to continue for the next 5 years.

    Obviously, if USA deflates and we inflate, our currency will see some ferocious depreciation. Expect 100 Rs to the dollar in 5 years.

    Everything will become more expensive by becoming double the cost.

    RE might just stand still at current prices for 5 years. Or it might also inflate further.

    Given current govt. borrowing, the interest rate differential between us and the rest of the world, depreciation and inflation are foregone conclusions.

    In such a situation, one should spend one's money quickly. Borrow on fixed interest rates and spend that also.

    As I have maintained through the last one year on this forum, we are going to see inflation of everything. Maybe least inflation will be in RE (it is already inflated), but even there we will see some inflation.

    My scenario is not new to you Wiseman, its just a repetition of what I always say.

    But my degree of conviction has increased rather than decreased. It has increased enough for me to start buying gol-d (which I had never liked because it is a pure speculation, it has no underlying yeild unlike bonds, stock and even RE).

    If USD becomes 100Rs, gol-d will become 40,000 !!!!!

    PCP, your stand still scenario seems likely to me. But please reflect on one thing:

    A flat needs 3 years plus to be built. So if you expect RE to move up in 2014, you need to book in 2011.

    Better still, buy a plot or a ready made flat in 2014. Still, market timing is never very accurate or easy especially in a opaque dealing like RE. Better to time it after whatever next shock shakes up our Indian system - stock crash, RE crash, recession, war, global crash , epidemic - whatever crashed the Indian economy should be bought into for stock and RE.

    I expected the crash of 2008 in Oct 2007 and cashed out totally in stocks. It feels like Oct 2007 today - imminent crash in economy is weeks to months away.
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  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    Better still, buy a plot or a ready made flat in 2014. Still, market timing is never very accurate or easy especially in a opaque dealing like RE. Better to time it after whatever next shock shakes up our Indian system - stock crash, RE crash, recession, war, global crash , epidemic - whatever crashed the Indian economy should be bought into for stock and RE.

    I expected the crash of 2008 in Oct 2007 and cashed out totally in stocks. It feels like Oct 2007 today - imminent crash in economy is weeks to months away.

    Completely agree on this one, especially after interacting with people based abroad.
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  • Builders can't sell parking space

    Folks, check this out..!!!

    http://www.esakal.com/esakal/20100911/4642959904175639013.htm

    For non-marathi readers -
    This is about supreme court decision on the madate that builder's can't sell parking space to flat buyers, the cost of parking would be equally distributed among all the apartments and all members to carry equal right to use the COMMON parking.

    This indeed a good move. Now, the builders have no other option to allow formation of a housing society and through the society, parking can be alloted to a member...I am not a law expert, this is one option I could instantly thought of :)

    Any other views guys..
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  • Originally Posted by frugality
    More Bad news
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/Obama-to-check-incentives-to-invest-in-overseas-jobs/articleshow/6523137.cms
    Obama to check incentives to invest in overseas jobs






    The whole system needs revamp ... like research focused ...
    Have we written any language/Standards on Indian shores?
    Very few ... some maybe in Intel.



    He appears to be very certain about this......

    and the way the Visa hike was implemented seems this will be there in some time..

    http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/india-us-talks-outsourcing-on-agenda-51232

    India's outsourcing concerns go unheeded as US President Obama doesn't seem to be in a mood to budge on his outsourcing stand. After widespread condemnation from different quarters in India, speaking at a White House press conference, Obama again took a jibe at companies that outsource jobs.

    Read more at: http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/india-us-talks-outsourcing-on-agenda-51232?cp





    time to sing ....

    All my bags are packed, I'm ready to go
    I'm standin' here outside your door
    I hate to wake you up to say goodbye

    isn't it ?:D
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  • Originally Posted by monds
    This is about supreme court decision on the madate that builder's can't sell parking space to flat buyers, the cost of parking would be equally distributed among all the apartments and all members to carry equal right to use the COMMON parking.

    This indeed a good move. Now, the builders have no other option to allow formation of a housing society and through the society, parking can be alloted to a member...I am not a law expert, this is one option I could instantly thought of :)

    Any other views guys..

    Buit the thing is even today builders don't sell parking slots officially. Either it is in cash or it is included in other charges like infra development/miscellaneous etc. Don't know why the need to charge parking when 25%+ loading is already there?? It is better that RE regulator kicks in ASAP so that such things stop, till then, the builders will continue to find some loopholes & do their business as usual.:bab (3):
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  • Hunt still on for developer of the ill-fated Belapur bldg

    Man, remember the story put here by fellow member which showed how building crashed even before possession was given to the buyers?? Here is the update on the same:-

    Navi Mumbai: The Andheri-based builder of the ill-fated under-construction building that collapsed in Belapur last week, Raju Deshpande (40) has not been arrested so far. :bab (36):

    http://www.mumbaimirror.com/index.aspx?Page=article§name=CITY - Briefs§id=35&contentid=20100829201008301506362488807eab1
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  • Ganesh Chaturthi

    Wishing you all a very 'Shubh Ganesh Chaturthi'. May lord Ganesha bless you all:).
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  • Originally Posted by frugality


    time to sing ....

    All my bags are packed, I'm ready to go
    I'm standin' here outside your door
    I hate to wake you up to say goodbye

    isn't it ?:D


    Good one.

    BTW, how to reconcile this with new hiring by IT, maintained profit margins and share prices rising every day?

    Somehow, I think there is misrepresentation of India's growth numbers. Our inflation deflators are all wrong. Our growth is supposed to be 8.5% or so.

    But if our true inflation is off by 50% i.e. 15% rather than 10% WPI, then almost 50% of our growth might be just wrong capturing of inflation related price increases as true rise of GDP.

    i.e. If you sold a soap for 10 Rs last year and sold a smaller sized soap for 11Rs this year - and our GDP was just soap - we would have grown 10% in GDP, whereas actually our soap gor smaller.

    Again, if you made a road for 100Rs last year, it got washed away in the rain, you again made the same road for 110Rs, our GDP would calculate it as a 10% growth. Whereas actually we had 100Rs capital destruction.

    Again, RE is not part of our inflation measures and growth deflator. But it is a part of our growth figures. So if you sold a flat for 30L last year and sold a similar flat for 45 L this year, our GDP would grow 50%!!!!!

    I dont know what to believe. All around me I see uncompetitive people and inefficiency. I see enormous capital destruction. I see terrible mismanagement .

    And still India is shining??? How ????
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  • Venky, Can you explain why would the indian currency get weaker if there is inflation in India while US deflates.

    I would expect it to grow stronger, with higher foreign inflows in Indian markets. It weakened from 38-51 when the FII's pulled out money from the stock market.
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  • And the Govt continues to cook figures ...

    Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    Good one.

    BTW, how to reconcile this with new hiring by IT, maintained profit margins and share prices rising every day?

    Somehow, I think there is misrepresentation of India's growth numbers. Our inflation deflators are all wrong. Our growth is supposed to be 8.5% or so.

    But if our true inflation is off by 50% i.e. 15% rather than 10% WPI, then almost 50% of our growth might be just wrong capturing of inflation related price increases as true rise of GDP.

    i.e. If you sold a soap for 10 Rs last year and sold a smaller sized soap for 11Rs this year - and our GDP was just soap - we would have grown 10% in GDP, whereas actually our soap gor smaller.

    Again, if you made a road for 100Rs last year, it got washed away in the rain, you again made the same road for 110Rs, our GDP would calculate it as a 10% growth. Whereas actually we had 100Rs capital destruction.

    Again, RE is not part of our inflation measures and growth deflator. But it is a part of our growth figures. So if you sold a flat for 30L last year and sold a similar flat for 45 L this year, our GDP would grow 50%!!!!!

    I dont know what to believe. All around me I see uncompetitive people and inefficiency. I see enormous capital destruction. I see terrible mismanagement .

    And still India is shining??? How ????



    Did you see the head of the CSO actually come on TV and tell us how the GDP figure was wildly wrong because someone typed in the wrong CONSTANT PARAMETER?!

    So, GDP for a country as large as India is computed by bureaucrats somewhere on spreadsheets by inserting constants to provide them with whatever number their political masters need at that moment.

    And then this guys goes on to ASSURE us that he is confident such an error will not happen again. Note that, if such a massive difference did not come up, no one would have noticed the tinkering that is part of the process now-a-days.

    And we are complaining of China cooking up their numbers!!!:o

    Its all smoke and mirrors and the entire system of rules is setup for the rich and crooked (can these 2 words be taken together? :D) for the rich and crooked ... The story goes on ... Till it suddenly, inexplicably and "surprisingly" breaks down and takes everyone to the cleaners.

    And you still think the BIG one is not coming down the pike somewhere down the line? Well, here's a chart on the Z$ Vs. US$. Do you think the US$ will not replace the Z$ sometime in the future?!

    As regards the question by Vicky, its a very interesting question that is not necessarily easy to answer (at least for me :)). I'm still pondering and searching for clues. And I bet its keeping all exporters and IT sector awake at night!

    cheers

    PS - its is not the loss of value in the currency that signals hyperinflation. It is the hyperinflation that forces govt to print currency in increasing numbers to try to keep people's confidence in it. As the value is constant, more the currency printed, less the value ... until, at the end, value tends to ZERO as the number of zeros in the note tends to an absurdly high number!!! Like in early-2008 in the case of the Z-Govt, it finally gave up!
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  • Originally Posted by Vicky100
    Venky, Can you explain why would the indian currency get weaker if there is inflation in India while US deflates.

    I would expect it to grow stronger, with higher foreign inflows in Indian markets. It weakened from 38-51 when the FII's pulled out money from the stock market.


    Hi Vicky. This is one of the toughest of questions and is difficult to explain - and difficult to understand. As Wiseman also says, it requires a lot of pondering. I personally dont understand all of it - nobody does, that is why the currency markets are impossible to predict or make money from.

    Basically, one should stay away from currencies. They are the devil of investing.

    Still, some of the factors affectiong Rs vs USD according to my understanding, I will try to explain - although I am not an economist - mostly, even economists are unable to explain or understand all of it. Some factors are:

    1. Interest rates. US rates parallel our stock market completely.

    a) After dot com bust, US (Greenspan) lowered rates. FII money poured into India and lifted stocks. Our currency strengthened to 40 per $.

    b)US experienced a bubble, there were global bubbles because of low rates in US

    c) After RE started growing in 2006 onwards, US rates started rising. Rupee weakened to 53 per $

    d) The rising rates burst the global bubble in 2008. US responded by lowering rates again.

    e) Rs strengthened against the $ to the current 46 per $.

    f) US cannot lower rates because it is zero. Whenever US raises rates, Rupee will weaken. FII will pull out money from our stocks and run for US bonds. Our stock market will collapse.

    g) US is currently not planning to raise rates. That means the party continues.

    h) It is placing long term bonds at about 2.8% or so - basically it is borrowing massive amounts to feed its easy money policy and running deficits. US will raise rates when it finds it impossible to place bonds at 2.8% - when this will happen is anybodies guess, but it has to happen sooner or later.

    i) Probably, US will raise rates when global commodity prices start rising again because China consumes it - basically spending the money it holds in USD bonds on commodities. If oil prices rise to 90$ you can be sure USD will have to strengthen - because US has to raise rates.

    2) India has a current account deficit - it imports more than it exports. Rs is strong because of FII inflow. Whenever FII inflows becomes an outflow, Rs will depreciate like crazy. There are many possible reasons for FII outflow

    a) Rates rise in USA - detailed above
    b) Corporate underperformance in India - earnings disappointment is likely to be the main cause. That means next quarter results are rather crucial
    c) Crisis of confidence in India - probably because of:
    -failed commonwealth games
    -failure in govt policy
    -wars

    Strangely, as FII will flee India, it will push down US rates again - because funds will flee to the US safe haven bonds - pushing down rates as bonds rise - it is a very difficult to predict scenario - difficult to say what exactly will happen.

    3) Goods and services in India cannot be out of balance with USA. If price of a burger in India is currently 50Rs and it is 1$ in USA, if price in India becomes 100Rs, either $ price also becomes 2$ (i.e. US inflation matched Indian inflation - unlikely) or Rupee changes value to 100Rs per dollar. If prices are actually deflating rather than inflating in USA, there is no way price of burger will become 2$. Only the exchange rate can adjust.

    Currently India has huge inflation of probably 15%. So exchange rate has to give up 15% i.e. 55 Rs per $ within the short term, just to keep pace with inflation.

    4)India is currently placing govt bonds at 8%. Obviously, people can borrow in USD at 0% and place it in India at a safe 8%. Obviously, this is not sustainable. So exchange rate has to adjust.

    5)FII can pull out money for obscure reasons - something spooks them and they pull out. And our currency will collapse. Only explanation is - Simply (as a Malayalee would put it)

    6) India's economy is import sensitive. If Rs starts to depreciate, Rupee cost of imports goes up - this makes Indian companies less efficient and squeezes margins - FII see poor results and pull out money - Rupee depreciates further - FII pull out more - Rupee collapses further - a vicious cycle is started.

    7) Indian inflation has the same effect - it pushes up cost of manufacture - company results deteriorate - FII pull out - above vicious cycle is started.

    8) India is running massive deficits - money is being used unproductively by govt - it is pushing up prices in India - setting off inflation and starting the above vicious cycle.

    In other words, it is a humongously complicated affair - as complex as a weather system - one small thing somewhere has the potential to set off a chaotic storm.

    This happened in 1989-1990 when the stupid Janata govt mismanaged the economy. There was a flight of capital and our financial system almost collapsed. We devalues tosome 40-45 Rs to the $ because of that flight.

    Currently Congress is badly mis-managing the economy. Something has to give.

    It is unpredictable. It is like dropping one grain of sand grain by grain on the floor. It will create a mound - when the mound will slip cannot be predicted. All you can say is - at some point, the mound of sand has to slip.

    But which grain of sand will make the mound slip - nobody can predict that.
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