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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    India's Real Estate Boom Is on Shaky Ground

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1268...googlenews_wsj

    Nice article.. very relevant...

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Originally posted by Sharpj View Post

      "What's the point of a designer shower system in your new house if you don't have water in it?"

      And water cut is yet to start in Pune ....

      I am planning to manufacture Plastic tanks that can fit in cargo space.....
      Skoda , Wagon R and Maruti 800...

      As in coming times people will use their cars to buy water and bring them in their expansive cars...

      .... similarly wooden flooring in Pune ......
      Its like ask Torrid zone countries to wear a "North Face" jacket

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by mahesh pune View Post
        WHat are your views on manhood people who takes big dowary from wife ?
        These are not men for sure. Such animals should be hanged upside down on electricity pole & burnt alive.
        Originally posted by ash7979 View Post
        A Home becomes home when both of the Partners contribute in it (Be it emotionally or financially) and if your wife is working & if including her income you can get a "Bigger" or "Better" home, so I don't think you should compromise on that....
        This is precisely I am against, going more than what the real capacity is. Making rest of the family members stuck with crap EMIs for 15 yrs is no joke. You feel good when you buy bigger than you afford but the impact is felt in 1-2 yrs as you see the savings disappear.
        If you are happy, you are successful.

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Originally posted by Sharpj View Post
          Nice link man. Yesterday, I also read somewhere that after 20 years, there will be potable water left for only 50% of the population. Add to it that India's population is going to overtake China by 2030 if the current trend continues. Man, so much population............
          If you are happy, you are successful.

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Developers warn that property costs are rising in India

            But he added that banks are still cautious about providing housing loan to consumers and asking for higher collaterals for lending to real estate developers.

            But several property deals are being cancelled due to the additional costs being levied by developers, according to Yashwant *****, president of the Estate Agents Association of India.

            Its Realty Trends 2010 report shows that 34% want to buy in Delhi followed by 28% favouring Mumbai and 11% opting Bangalore and Hyderabad.
            >> Hey, so where is Pune? If it is now no longer prefered destination, why still high rates for RE?

            http://www.propertywire.com/news/asi...004064019.html
            If you are happy, you are successful.

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              China may 'crash' in next 9-12 months: Marc Faber

              http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/5887630.cms

              Any impact on India if this happen ?



              SINGAPORE: Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst.

              The Shanghai Composite Index has failed to regain its 2009 high while industrial commodities and shares of Australian resource exporters are acting “heavy”, Faber said. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai last week is “not a particularly good omen”, he said, citing a property bust and depression that followed the 1873 World Exhibition in Vienna.

              “The market is telling you that something is not quite right,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong on Monday.

              “The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months.”

              An index tracking Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong dropped 1.8% on Monday, the most in two weeks, after the central bank raised reserve requirements for the third time this year.

              The Shanghai Composite has slumped 12% this year, Asia’s worst performer, as policy makers seek to rein in a lending boom that’s spurred record gains in property prices. China’s markets are shut for a holiday on Monday.

              Copper touched a seven-week low and BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, fell the most since February on concern spending in the world’s third-largest economy will slow and after Australia boosted taxes on commodities producers. Rio Tinto, the third-largest, slid as much as 6 %.

              Chanos, Rogoff

              Faber joins hedge fund manager Jim Chanos and Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a crash in China. China is “on a treadmill to hell” because it’s hooked on property development for driving growth, Chanos said in an interview last month.

              As much as 60% of the country’s gross domestic product relies on construction, he said. Rogoff said in February a debt-fuelled bubble in China may trigger a regional recession within a decade.

              The government has banned loans for third homes and raised mortgage rates and down-payment requirements for second-home purchases. Prices rose 11.7% across 70 cities in March from a year earlier, the most since data began in 2005.

              The government has stopped short of raising interest rates to contain property prices. Within an hour of the central bank announcement on reserve ratios, finance minister Xie Xuren said officials remained committed to expansionary policies to cement the nation’s recovery.

              Stocks ‘Fully Priced’

              The nation’s economy grew 11.9% in the first quarter, the fastest pace in almost three years. The government projects gross domestic product growth for the year of about 8%.

              The clampdown on property speculation may prompt investors to turn to the nation’s stock market, Faber said. Still, shares are “fully priced” and Chinese investors may instead become “big buyers” of , he said.
              BlackRock is among money managers reducing their holdings on Chinese stocks on expectations that economic growth has peaked.

              The BlackRock Emerging Markets Fund has widened its “underweight” position for China versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to about 7.5% from 4.6% at the end of March, the fund’s London-based co-manager Dan Tubbs said.

              Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of China, the nation’s three largest banks, are trading near their lowest valuations on record as rising profits are eclipsed by concern bad loans will increase.

              Local Governments

              Citigroup warned in March that in a “worst case scenario”, the non-performing loans of local-government investment vehicles, used to channel money to stimulus projects, could swell to 2.4 trillion yuan by 2011.

              Housing prices nationwide may fall as much as 20% in the second half of the year on government measures to curb speculation, BNP Paribas said on April 23. Under a stress test conducted by the Shanghai branch of the China Banking Regulatory Commission in February, local banks’ ratio of delinquent mortgages would triple should home prices in the country’s commercial center decline 10%.

              Shanghai is projecting as many as 70 million visitors to the $44 billion World Expo, more than 10 times the number who traveled to the 2008 Beijing Olympics. More than 433,000 people visited the 5.3 square-kilometer (3.3 square-mile) park on its first weekend.

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Originally posted by rambarve3 View Post
                http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/5887630.cms

                Any impact on India if this happen ?



                SINGAPORE: Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst.

                The Shanghai Composite Index has failed to regain its 2009 high while industrial commodities and shares of Australian resource exporters are acting “heavy”, Faber said. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai last week is “not a particularly good omen”, he said, citing a property bust and depression that followed the 1873 World Exhibition in Vienna.

                “The market is telling you that something is not quite right,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong on Monday.
                The Irony in china is People are buying in Cash..

                http://www.dnaindia.com/money/column...cities_1378645

                he Chinese property bubble is different from the US property bubble, and is driven by entirely different trends. “It’s not driven by people borrowing and flipping property over, but by property being held off the market because of stockpiling.”

                So much cash they have ...... and Govt is trying very hard to cool this off...

                While our case is US way ..... buyers are over-leveraging themselves as the prices are so high and to meet minimum requirements....

                Chinese are doing 30 - 40 % down payment while we are just able to do 15-20% .....
                While in Mar 09 it was 20 - 25 % down payment, now the banks have relaxed the norms...

                And un-affordability kicking in The RE market is ready to topple ....
                A simple Lehman like can start here in India....

                And Govt. instead of being wary ... is fueling it

                Alas ....

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Yes I too think danger bells have started to ring. This is the time when everyne actually thinks he is helpless and property bubble is NEVER gonna burst. Actually, thats the time when cracks will start.

                  Cmon bubble, its time to burst now. There simply too many helpless souls burdened by unmanagable loan pressure and if bubble will not collapse, these people and their families are certain to collapse in coming months and years.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    I think the RE prices will defy gravity for another 1-2 years until the PE funds,private equity banks,restrucuring - RBI totally dump the sector.

                    So, PATIENCE is important here and I believe if we are discusiing the same topic in 2012 and in 2013, things would definately have imporved for the buyers.

                    For the sellers, they are losing money since 2007 by holding on to the propoerties. The paltry 1-3% yearly rental income does not stand a chance in a 10% inflation and 10% interest rate kind of scenario.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      I wouldn't agree that we are yet in a bubble. The banks are still doing their due diligence while sanctioning loans.

                      Aggressive private players like ICICI and Kotak have burnt their fingers in the past by handing over Credit Cards and Home Loans to undeserving individuals. Their NPA rates are now 38%. Private players are becoming cautious while handing over loans.

                      Public Sector banks are known for not taking risks at all. So they are not handing over bad loans either.

                      The bubble starts when getting a loan becomes a peice of cake. For IT folks, yes, I'd agree that its a peice of cake. But for anyone not in IT getting a loan is a hard job.

                      Also, for a bubble to form people should be thinking of buying their 3rd or 4th homes. I think most are still thinking of their 2nd home. The problem is that they have stretched themselves far too much in their first or second home itself, and now will be unlikely to go for 3rd and 4th. That's called as the froth is forming, not a bubble. The bubble will be the next step.

                      China blocked mortgages for 3rd homes. That's the sign of a bubble.

                      Hence, I still feel that we are not in a bubble, just yet.

                      Comment

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